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  • #600,021
  • Edited 7:42pm Feb 25, 2012 6:47pm | Edited 7:42pm
Quoting tmroland
Monthly Chart - BULLISH

1) We have a primary uptrend from 01.02.2002 wich was recently confirmed at 01.01.2012 (3rd trendline touch and reverse).

2) We also have a hammer candle in a good spot, at the bottom of the range from 1.4607 - 1.2662 and it was confirmed by a higher monthly close,
this means buy.

3) The current correction (1.2635 - 1.3486) is a intermediary trend (30+ days) and is impulsive for the 2002 primary uptrend and corrective for the latest primary downtrend (1.6038 - 1.4548) trend (4+ years), however considering the current...


Very very nice, I appreciate the work required to complete such analysis

When you bring in monthly weekly charts must remember they can take months even years to play out.

I still believe EU is running rogue, has been for awhile, this is because of all the bs fundie influence, trader sentiment etc etc for the last 2 months
We posted our Nov Dec trade plan in Oct, to sell her hard, Jan we left her alone, historically "bull" and this month "confused" accordingly we have been scalping her ass,
She is presently in no mans land, and we have reverted to scalping specific levels only, as posted.

We are presently concentrating on her sisters Kiwi & Aussie, they are behaving much more conservatively, and accordingly easier to trade,

Yen prs are being heavily manipulated, they have always been the most volitile of prs to trade, volitility we do not mind, historical lows are always dangerous to sell, hence "scalping" anyone buying 116 50 zone could possibly have there retirement trades already,

Cable excepting last Thur & Fri however like Kiwi and Aussie, have produced excellent returns, all 3 may produce excellent pips next week possibly 2 considering they have been bull ascending Channels 4hr & daily



1 of our triggers is swissy, again heavily manipulated, however not passive and if and/or when SNB decide to intervene many will be burnt, if this co insides with BOJ most will be burnt.


Our primary aim is to be patient until this months close and/or our ladies start working in sync, and then reassess,as stated eu is presently rougue and yen is being recently passively, heavily manipulated

It is very nice seeing you consider the higher TF's in your analysis, the key word as we have repeatedly posted, scalp lower tf,s only, be patient, trust your levels, squeeze sl,s get to BE asap

If you are getting stopped at BE, dont panic, PA is crazy recently, ping pong / sideways bs, perhaps minor tweaks required to mm, however when and/or if the markets settles down, normal trading can resume

PS when we think we have pa down pat, boom, she slaughter us,

We are already short Kiwi Aussie and will be looking to defend Mondays open and add, EU no entry yet, but will defend Mondays open Cable we will defend Mondays open however negated if 5929 breached, Geppy will defend Mondays open, negated if 130 83 breached

Trade safe
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #600,022
  • Feb 25, 2012 6:52pm Feb 25, 2012 6:52pm
Quoting Schnitzel
I'm really bullish on EURUSD midterm now as there occured a break of a daily head and shoulder neckline. Target is according to the H&S height and also right at the 161.8 fib-expansion level. There is some major resistance from 200 SMA, a falling trendline, 100 fib-expansion and 61.8 fib-retracement level at around 1.36-1.37 though. The trendline would be confirmed if a retracement happens, but any break would trigger large buying. Since the market is still short very strongly, there will be most likely only small short orders around this resistance...
That's a very solid annalysis. Nice work.
  • #600,023
  • Feb 25, 2012 7:20pm Feb 25, 2012 7:20pm
Thank you, I'm trying to do my homework.
  • #600,024
  • Feb 25, 2012 7:50pm Feb 25, 2012 7:50pm
The next LTRO is for the coming week right ? Can someone tell me what are the coming events plz
  • #600,025
  • Feb 25, 2012 8:02pm Feb 25, 2012 8:02pm
Quoting Schnitzel
I'm really bullish on EURUSD midterm now as there occured a break of a daily head and shoulder neckline. Target is according to the H&S height and also right at the 161.8 fib-expansion level. There is some major resistance from 200 SMA, a falling trendline, 100 fib-expansion and 61.8 fib-retracement level at around 1.36-1.37 though. The trendline would be confirmed if a retracement happens, but any break would trigger large buying. Since the market is still short very strongly, there will be most likely only small short orders around this resistance...
Doesnt look like h&s pattern..could have been a crude one if the head was more defined and the price didnt turn around the 9th/10th.
A picture is worth 1000 words.. A chart is worth 1000 pictures
  • #600,026
  • Feb 25, 2012 9:09pm Feb 25, 2012 9:09pm
We have already blown through so many resistance levels.

I am looking at a "potential" Contrarian Reversal play on the 1Hour chart going into next weeks trading.

Anyone have any thoughts?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2-25-2012 6-22-54 PM EURUSD ana.jpg Size: 233 KB
"More important than the quest for certainty is the quest for clarity"
  • #600,027
  • Feb 25, 2012 9:15pm Feb 25, 2012 9:15pm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...s-it-time.html
  • #600,028
  • Feb 25, 2012 10:01pm Feb 25, 2012 10:01pm
Quoting adamnsim03
Doesnt look like h&s pattern..could have been a crude one if the head was more defined and the price didnt turn around the 9th/10th.
There are several ways a h&s pattern can look like and it's very rarely looking like a perfect h&s. In my opinion all criterias for this chart pattern are given.
Both shoulders are at about the same level, the neckline was tested twice and broken with the third touch. On Balance Volume was pretty low at the head, but rose sharply with the ascending to the second reaction top, fell sharply again with the decline to the right shoulder low and rose again from thereon strongly, especially with the break. The neckline is also rising, which usually means that it's a very bullish pattern.
  • #600,029
  • Feb 25, 2012 10:22pm Feb 25, 2012 10:22pm
Quoting Schnitzel
There are several ways a h&s pattern can look like and it's very rarely looking like a perfect h&s. In my opinion all criterias for this chart pattern are given.
Both shoulders are at about the same level, the neckline was tested twice and broken with the third touch. On Balance Volume was pretty low at the head, but rose sharply with the ascending to the second reaction top, fell sharply again with the decline to the right shoulder low and rose again from thereon strongly, especially with the break. The neckline is also rising, which usually means...
Thank you for the clarification, candle stick patterns are something I need to spend more time on..On another note Im an intraday trader for the most part but gained substantial pips on the euro spike and racking my brain on what to do with it given all the news coming up. Ive never been a bollinger bands user however I notice on the weekly chart that the eur/usd went almost 2 weeks riding the bottom band without breaking it(well didnt break on marketscope but did very slightly on metatrader). It may be nothing at all but this is the only time EVER it has done this. Anyones thoughts on this?? I will be backtesting for similar scenarios, ill update if theres any signifance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A picture is worth 1000 words.. A chart is worth 1000 pictures
  • #600,030
  • Feb 25, 2012 10:43pm Feb 25, 2012 10:43pm
Quoting JeremyMoore
We have already blown through so many resistance levels.

I am looking at a "potential" Contrarian Reversal play on the 1Hour chart going into next weeks trading.

Anyone have any thoughts?

Attachment
In this range we are in limbo. I am staying nimble and going to trade the news on whip saws and reversals on short term. Marking is trending nicely higher not leaving too many chances to re load on significant retrace and subsequent moves higher. Almost best to just let longs sit and trade around with smaller lots on alternate pairs, but not always easy on a tight risk profile and other pairs like EUR/AUD have large spreads defeating the purpose.

March 8th ECB minimum rate announcemnt might be day where things reverse for any length of time. Until then I am keeping eye on oil and this whole BS Iran Media hype storyline makes it's hard to short euro while equities also make new highs. As far as near term contrarian, until trend changes shorts can work but tricky.
  • #600,031
  • Feb 25, 2012 10:48pm Feb 25, 2012 10:48pm
Quoting Schnitzel
There are several ways a h&s pattern can look like and it's very rarely looking like a perfect h&s. In my opinion all criterias for this chart pattern are given.
Both shoulders are at about the same level, the neckline was tested twice and broken with the third touch. On Balance Volume was pretty low at the head, but rose sharply with the ascending to the second reaction top, fell sharply again with the decline to the right shoulder low and rose again from thereon strongly, especially with the break. The neckline is also rising, which usually means...
Yeah it's pretty clear. I will go out on a limb and say that if euro follows through a month from now the "chartist" will point out how clear this set up was, but truth is, that day may never come. When Euro gets to 1.38 is when people will take notice of the H&S, and by then it will be time to short
  • #600,032
  • Feb 25, 2012 10:55pm Feb 25, 2012 10:55pm
Quoting adamnsim03
Thank you for the clarification, candle stick patterns are something I need to spend more time on..On another note Im an intraday trader for the most part but gained substantial pips on the euro spike and racking my brain on what to do with it given all the news coming up. Ive never been a bollinger bands user however I notice on the weekly chart that the eur/usd went almost 2 weeks riding the bottom band without breaking it(well didnt break on marketscope but did very slightly on metatrader). It may be nothing at all but this is the only...
well if you follow the BB creed, that would imply that the move down will not continue. BB on such a long time frame may not be as useful for trading since its more useful for showing the intensity of an instruments movement. Looking at you example, though, makes me think that whole move down could have been contrived for massive short holders as the pair was just walked down in a market where there was no REAL shortage of dollars for the banks...swap funds made USD supplies virutally unlimted. Maybe a little repatriation of US investment in europe. That's the conspiracy I just thought up. lol
  • #600,033
  • Feb 25, 2012 11:13pm Feb 25, 2012 11:13pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
well if you follow the BB creed, that would imply that the move down will not continue. BB on such a long time frame may not be as useful for trading since its more useful for showing the intensity of an instruments movement. Looking at you example, though, makes me think that whole move down could have been contrived for massive short holders as the pair was just walked down in a market where there was no REAL shortage of dollars for the banks...swap funds made USD supplies virutally unlimted. Maybe a little repatriation of US investment in europe....
everyone seems to think it is a conspiracy..I dont know much fundamentally but my take is big money wants what everyone wants and thats to make money..theyre not going to short behind the mass of retail sellers- they want to lead the way if this goes further down. I say mass because to many this just seemed like easy money you can see reading the boards after last week people saying "shhhhhooorrrtt" lol Anyhow as far as the bb on higher time frames I thought the same but several websites said the signals were stronger on larger time frames..again ill update after my backtesting..
A picture is worth 1000 words.. A chart is worth 1000 pictures
  • #600,034
  • Feb 25, 2012 11:24pm Feb 25, 2012 11:24pm
Quoting adamnsim03
Thank you for the clarification, candle stick patterns are something I need to spend more time on..On another note Im an intraday trader for the most part but gained substantial pips on the euro spike and racking my brain on what to do with it given all the news coming up. Ive never been a bollinger bands user however I notice on the weekly chart that the eur/usd went almost 2 weeks riding the bottom band without breaking it(well didnt break on marketscope but did very slightly on metatrader). It may be nothing at all but this is the only...


I once read an article in my futures magazine about pushes off of any sort of S/R lines including BB. It was stating that if you get 2 good pushes off of the S/R and a 3rd one starts to happen watch out. most of the time you get a really good push on the 3rd one. If it has been clearly respecting the S/R.

From the looks of the chart that was posted, it looks like it clearly touches the lower BB 3 times and on the 3rd time we got a really strong push up.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: S.R push.jpg Size: 182 KB
  • #600,035
  • Feb 26, 2012 12:05am Feb 26, 2012 12:05am
Interesting midas..About the bb the odd thing is the lack of crossing..As you see some strong bearish candles hugging up to the bottom band but not touching, then the reversal. Note that the chart pictured is fxcm marketscope however on my metatrader account it crossed by 20 pips on one of the weekly candles
A picture is worth 1000 words.. A chart is worth 1000 pictures
  • #600,036
  • Feb 26, 2012 2:26am Feb 26, 2012 2:26am
Quoting JeremyMoore
We have already blown through so many resistance levels.

I am looking at a "potential" Contrarian Reversal play on the 1Hour chart going into next weeks trading.

Anyone have any thoughts?

Attachment
Interesting indicator (clarity).....
  • #600,037
  • Feb 26, 2012 2:45am Feb 26, 2012 2:45am
Off topic,

For the risk lovers, there are some great pips waiting to be collected in GJ next week.
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  • #600,038
  • Feb 26, 2012 3:20am Feb 26, 2012 3:20am
Quoting KillerWhale
Off topic,

For the risk lovers, there are some great pips waiting to be collected in GJ next week.
I rely on geppy myself to earn me some pippers, where are you heading?

I reckon .272 area?
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  • #600,039
  • Feb 26, 2012 3:43am Feb 26, 2012 3:43am
If it brakes ressistance, it go UP, if daily candle close under ressistance and come back, it will go DOWN.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #600,040
  • Feb 26, 2012 3:50am Feb 26, 2012 3:50am
Quoting mercy seat
I did play it now A REVERSO ... means short again ...


Price 1.34182 ...


Time 12h35 CET ...


#599278




palim palim




;-|
Why you shorted at 1.3418 rather shud at 1.3625 the better level ..now see next week u will add ur shorts and eurusd will rally to 1.4031...Palim Palim
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