VSA Trading: Reading the Tape & Learning to Wait

Got out on SLB for a scratch. It rallied after my exit but on no demand so I wouldn't be surprised to see a reversal tomorrow.

I entered MSFT this morning, but something was wonky w/ my fill apparently? It was hovering near breakeven but I was down 1R. Ended up bailing since the price action was average going into the close. Still on the watchlist fwiw.

Still managing FCEL. I'm up 16R but I've been a bit of a negative Nancy about it all lol. Given the volatility, I expect a very deep pullback that likely won't stop the trend, but I likely shouldn't try to sit through. I do have calls that don't expire until July, so I have a lot of runway available. The uncertainty on what to do is sprinkling on my parade a tad. I suppose that I need to STFU and take what the market gives me, and the market hasn't given me a reason to exit yet. I have tightened up my stop daily fwiw.

Now's a good time for me to take a step back and reflect on what I'm happy for:

1. My first big winner after getting smoked during the Iran War reversal
2. The new tactics I've implemented for trade management are being field-tested and doing well.
3. I am doing end of day check-ins religiously which keep me honest and in-line with today's price action. I did a postmortem from when I got caught flat-footed, and a big chunk of it was assuming that a prior detailed analysis was still valid in spite of multiple trading days passing

Overall, I accept that I will not get 100% of the move and that's OK as long as I get a chunk of it. I have a lot to be proud of and it is the first reminder in 1-2 months that my earlier winners were not a random fluke due to unique market conditions

Missed trade frustrations
Had a 30 second outburst of emotion watching today's price action. From my perspective, I did everything right and somehow got an abnormally shit fill that led to me exiting the position earlier than I'd like.

With that said, I got that out of my system and can reset for the rest of the day/look at the silver linings. It is frustration watching it run w/o me but I'm proud that:

1. I was in the right place. My stock selection is improving
2. I managed my risk accordingly and got out of my position yesterday once I hit -1R
3. I realize that there will be more opportunities

I've got to remember to give myself grace. This week I had 2-3 other setups that I took too long to pull the trigger on which compounded things, but I will do a postmortem and be better prepared the next time around

Closed out of FCEL on Friday. ~16R which is good enough for me. I think supply is starting to enter the picture so I'm watching for a deeper pullback over the coming days/weeks and then a chance to re-enter. Will be paying more attention to the renewables in general moving forward.

Completely flat across the board but I have a feeling my watchlist will be solid by the time I finish my EoW Review and analyze some new charts

Dumped -17% today. Proud that I saw repeated uncertainty in spite of the rally and pulled the trigger to exit.

No new trades as of yet.

Missed a re-entry on FCEL earlier today. Yanked a pending order earlier this afternoon on ENPH (another renewables-related play) after a weak close.

Markets have strength in the background but I'm unconvinced w/ the price action today. Price might run higher after the close when NVDA reports but I will sit on the sidelines and see how things look when they're a bit more definitive

ENPH up +15% and FCEL up +25%.

Irritating but still a great sign that I'm sniffing in the right places for my entries.

Entered CSIQ and TEAM (short) in the last hour of trading today. Will share some charts tomorrow

Got smoked on TEAM and fat fingered CSIQ, so I was stopped out prematurely smh. Then I jumped in FSLR but got spooked and exited early. Rough end to the trading last week but realized some larger mistakes I was making which has me excited for the future.

Entered COIN yesterday. Not a lot of conviction to the downside in spite of a solid entry. Will be actively watching it today in case I need to take risk off the table.

Concerns

1. Below average volume on last two down bars
2. Potential support @ 4/29 lows
3. Above average volume on an upthrust in Bitcoin Futures yesterday yet support held (last chart)

Closed out COIN for a smaller winner. Definitely lost its correlation w/ Bitcoin futures as the day progressed. Proud of my improved trade management though. I think I have some structure there that can limit my drawdowns moving forward.



Also entered MSFT. Stop is pretty tight so I'm hoping that the markets bullish close leads to a gap/continuation move going into the weekend

Microsoft had a very strong showing yesterday even if I got in after the majority of the move was over. I have $435 calls but I am realizing that this has the potential to rally to $470 in this type of market, so I was not aggressive enough w/ my calls. I will be looking to add to my current position w/ some more speculative calls if the opportunity provides itself.

Off to a strong start.


TBH, I'm getting a little too pollyannish about everything so I'm gonna have to reset and get back to basics. Likely done trading for the week but will try to shore up some outstanding trading tasks to stave off complacency

Finding it hard to stay focused and the market hasn't even open yet. MSFT is running in the premarket.

Apparently they did a deal w/ NVDA to use new chips in their PCs. I've learned my lesson after being caught flatfooted during the Iran War reversal though, so I will avoid any more news articles to keep my VSA reading unbiased.

The position isn't life-changing money, but it's becoming an (increasingly large) cushion that makes living costs/future draw-downs a lot less intimidating. It is the clearest sign yet that I have what it takes to trade for a living.

Back to MSFT though. In the words of Declan Rice, it's not over. In spite of the leverage becoming increasingly unwieldy, I need to stay disciplined until I get bearish signals. My plan today is:

1. Avoid my typical analysis/position management on the 65m. Instead I will zoom out to the 130m/195m so that I'm aligned w/ the larger trend
2. Force myself to only look @ the chart at my preset intervals (I have alarms that go off every 65m)
3. Focus on tightening up other 'squeaky wheels' in my strategy to keep myself busy and moving forward
4. To limit my daydreaming about the future, I will reread the Tilt Profile I created on Pollyannish thinking
5. Bike to the library or a rando coffee shop to switch up my settings and kneecap any potential restlessness

Went to the chart to manage the trade and ended up adding to my position.

I am using a wave chart for the first time in the jounral. I rarely use them explicitly in my day-to-day, but I have been studying the underlying concepts as of late (which is how I stumbled across some David Weis newsletters which I compiled/shared in the main chat).

My thought process is that the VSA concepts are easily applicable to the swings/waves as well, so by reading waves, I can gain additional insights w/ almost no additional effort. There is some translation required, but a lot of the stuff rhymes out of the box so it's more like translating Spanish to Italian instead of English to Arabic



The three circled #s are of note:
22 - The longest down-wave of the day, bears are showing up
33 - This down-wave is approximately the same length, yet even more effort were put in. In VSA terms, this translates to an EvR wave
4 - This down-wave didn't bring out any conviction. In VSA terms, it's a test-wave and price has the go-ahead to explore higher prices (if bulls decide to take it)

Too cute by half. Ended up bailing on the new position.
24 - Shows lots of effort put in by the bulls to regain ground that went nowhere. The highlighted level speaks to the potential distribution.

I will take some risk off the table w/ my main position if price continues to show weakness

Feeling like I'm turning into a day trader which is no bueno. Giving myself a pass because my overall size is much larger than the small bets I'm making, and the tight stop means a pop would be in my favor.

Gonna have to walk away from the computer soon

Smaller winner. Exited because it's lacking conviction and I need to get AFK

Biked to the library just in time to completely close out MSFT.

Was a little frazzled after biking for 30m and only have 10m b4 the close to analyze what I had missed. Next time I'll make sure I have a 30m buffer if I move around during trading hours.

But yeah, here's what I see:

 

1. On top of that, the Nasdaq and the S&P are looking a little sus re: the current upswing and may need to retrace and test for supply.
2. They might drag MSFT w/ it and my calls were deep-in-the-money so I'll sit on the sidelines for now and be content if price continues higher tomorrow

Great progress, altho not quite the home run it looked to be this morning. In the premarket, the gap higher alone would've netted me 20R on top of the existing profits from last week but c'est la vie. Can't go broke taking a winner. Will reset and prep for tomorrow. The entire trade netted +14R

Yesterday's exit was the right move

NQ is stronger than I expected so far though. I was/am anticipating a breakdown in Semiconductors/AI

Have been stalking a bunch of solar setups all day. The first entry is holding on for dear life and the second has been more amenable.

First the struggling
FSLR

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

1. The callout on the 65m is a note I gave to myself after the entry. The bar prior to my entry isn't as strong as I anticipated
2. Held on by the skin of my teeth so far:
   1. TradingView does this quirky thing where the low of the bar appears beyond the 'Position' drawing. However:
      1. I have highlighted the bar in question. If you look at the upper part of the chart that shows the OHLC prices, the low is $304.21
      2. If you look at the scale to the right of the chart, my stop loss is @ $304.19

      
      

   
   

3. Potentially out of the woods for now. Proud of myself for sitting in the position instead of bailing when I saw weakness

ENPH

The adage about the best trades being right from the start rings true here.
OAN, I like how tight this stop is. Really lets me size up w/ a definitive line in the sand that tells me if I'm early or not

Contemplating more solar plays tbh. The sector is what Oil was during the heights of the Iran War IMO. The thing holding me back is that it kinda becomes really just one leveraged bet. Might be better suited to just pick the best setup and add to it if/when it goes in my favor, no?