food for thought . . .
John was sold a lie.
It's a lie so easy to believe. Because it makes
so much sense.
Near impossible to challenge its logic.
And, really it's not a lie, per se. I mean, if you
believe in something so much, and then spread this
belief to other people, is it a lie?
Didn't matter anyway.
John believed the lie:
- You put indicator A on your chart.
- Then you put indicator B on your chart.
- Then you put indicator C on you chart.
- If A, B, C (and E, F, G...) are ALL telling you that
the price is gonna go up, then the probability of price
going up is increased, right?
So when John got confirmation (that the price is gonna rise)
and all his indicators were in agreement, he entered a
long trade.
Then the impossible happened.
Price plummeted.
John was angry, confuse, and disheartened.
Maybe he didn't add enough indicators.
Maybe if he also got confirmation from a few more indicators,
the price would indeed shoot up.
(as if market price rises or falls just because these
magical indicators say so...)
So, he added indicator X, and Y, and Z.
Then the same thing happened.
WTF.
A vicious circle.
No wonder John is frustrated.
No wonder John falls again and again for the
"fad of the day" everybody's trying to sell him.
----
Matt was sold the same lie.
It all made perfect sense.
If one indicator is right 50% of the time, the other is
right 50% of the time, then when both of them issue the
same signal, the chance of it being right must be higher
than 50%.
Right?
Well...
"Why do you think unsuccessful traders are obsessed with
market analysis?
They crave the SENSE of certainty that analysis appears
to give them.
Although few would admit it, the truth is that the typical
trader wants to be right on every single trade.
He is desperately trying to create certainty where it
just doesn't exist."
John was sold a lie.
It's a lie so easy to believe. Because it makes
so much sense.
Near impossible to challenge its logic.
And, really it's not a lie, per se. I mean, if you
believe in something so much, and then spread this
belief to other people, is it a lie?
Didn't matter anyway.
John believed the lie:
- You put indicator A on your chart.
- Then you put indicator B on your chart.
- Then you put indicator C on you chart.
- If A, B, C (and E, F, G...) are ALL telling you that
the price is gonna go up, then the probability of price
going up is increased, right?
So when John got confirmation (that the price is gonna rise)
and all his indicators were in agreement, he entered a
long trade.
Then the impossible happened.
Price plummeted.
John was angry, confuse, and disheartened.
Maybe he didn't add enough indicators.
Maybe if he also got confirmation from a few more indicators,
the price would indeed shoot up.
(as if market price rises or falls just because these
magical indicators say so...)
So, he added indicator X, and Y, and Z.
Then the same thing happened.
WTF.
A vicious circle.
No wonder John is frustrated.
No wonder John falls again and again for the
"fad of the day" everybody's trying to sell him.
----
Matt was sold the same lie.
It all made perfect sense.
If one indicator is right 50% of the time, the other is
right 50% of the time, then when both of them issue the
same signal, the chance of it being right must be higher
than 50%.
Right?
Well...
"Why do you think unsuccessful traders are obsessed with
market analysis?
They crave the SENSE of certainty that analysis appears
to give them.
Although few would admit it, the truth is that the typical
trader wants to be right on every single trade.
He is desperately trying to create certainty where it
just doesn't exist."
, I still do not think indicators are a lie. Sure, if the description tells you that it is making decisions for you and you just need to follow what it says it probably was a lie. But that should raise the question why is it an indicator at all, it should be an EA.
