vsa with Malcolm

Yeah I'm short GBP and exit 2day ago. Now all my focus to USD tonight.

SHARP SHOOTER

I know most people don't like my posts. They want to be spoon fed trades, not have discussions. But I had to make this post. I have been watching a lot of Tradeguider videos lately, and I implore everyone to understand this: Malcolm, TEB63, Pres78, KinsaleForex, and many others have been using the sharp shooter strategy for years. It just never had a name. You do not have to spend the money to get the strategy. It's here in this thread for free. Take the money and put it into account, rather than giving it to Tradeguider. Sure, there are slight difference based on the each individual's personality and belief system, but basically the strategy is here for all.

Here's what I saw yesterday and today:

A. The initial news of the day, created a Buying Aggression bar. Aggression moves the market. We would expect that the low of this bar to hold, as that is where the bulls started showing up. From a VSA perspective, this is a wide spread up bar on ultra high volume. And VSA tells us, weakness, when it appears, appears on UP bars.

B. Another Buying Aggression bar. This one is immediately rejected. We do not get any acceptance above (MP). If we are not getting any acceptance above, the bulls can't be completely in charge of the market. Put another way, rejection of Buying Aggression is a sign of weakness. Put even another way, as many have already thought, Aggression seems very similar to Effort. And we know that rejection of an Effort to Rise is a sign of weakness. This market is weak.

C. Again, we see another Buying Aggression bar with no acceptance above. What is of note is the fact that this Aggression bar is lower than the previous bar. From a VSA point of view, this is the first bar in a two bar reversal. This market is weak.

D. Bingo! Bango! Bongo! The fed speaks and the we see one of Gavin's favorite indications, the Trap Up Move. The Trap Up Move is sign of weakness. Sure somebody sold the high of this bar, but it would not be us. We just see another piece of evidence of the market's true strength or weakness.

E. We "expect" the low of Buying Aggression bars to hold. Therefore, we can put a "line in the sand" at the low of the bar. OMG HiddenGap, did you just create a "trigger number"? But you're not using expensive software to get that. Anyway, this bar does breach the low but the next bar closes higher and back above the low. Also from a VSA perspective, this is a wide spread down bar, closing near its low on volume less than the previous two bars. Also known as No Selling Pressure.

F. We see a Test right on the "line in the sand". Based on the time of day and the fact that price is below the BPL, we should not be looking to get long. The trend is down. Going long here would therefore be a counter trade. We are trend traders. Although there is serious weakness in the background, could this market actually want to go up?

1. The answer to the above question, is no. We get a No Demand just after the "open" of the market today. Now, Chart Mode I is red, Chart Mode II is red, and price is below the BPL. We are in a down trend. So an entry here would be in line with the trend, but it's a bit aggressive and not the Sharp Shooter entry.

G. Beautiful. We break down below the "line in the sand", aka the trigger number, on some Selling Aggression. It does not always happen, but we like it when Buying Aggression is being taken out by Selling Aggression, or vice versa. Now we're cooking with gas.

H. No Demand. In a down trend we see an UP bar on volume less than the previous two bars. This is our first Sharp Shooter entry. Technically, the previous bar is also No Demand, however, it does not confirm, nor is its low taken out on the next bar. What? A sharp shooter strategy trade without software? That's right.

To be fair, I favor trying to ride the trend as long as possible, rather than going for a few ticks. So I would not be looking for 11 ticks or whatever number the "strategy" suggests. If you were placing your stop just above the Selling Aggression bars as they appear, you would still be in the trade. Based on what can be seen in the picture.

I always laughed at Gavin when he called himself a contrarian. He has always been a trend trader. Sharp Shooter is a trend trading strategy. Sharp Shooter is basically what this thread has always been about. So, rather than spend money, why not just read the thread and absorb the knowledge being given for free?

Anyone with Esignal volume mind posting a M15 chart for GBP/AUD on June 14th? Really like to see Tokyo and London Sessions.

Thanks.

I honestly don't think this statement is true, the amount of time, effort and thought you put into your posts is appreciated.



Something that is worth pointing out is 2 bars after Bar D, the volume is higher than Bar D. If we think about it from a market psychology stand point it makes sense that everyone is rushing in to buy Bar D+2, because they think they are getting a deal after the markup of Bar A.

First thanks for such a detailed post .
How you see acceptance ? do you mean MP(mid point) of that Aggression bar or something else?
and when you say about holding of low or high of said aggression bar you look for tick or a close of interval to the other side of holding price level to consider it taken out.
because at E price closed below holding level but you said it taken out at G, and for takeout aggression bar it must be an aggression bar with HG or some volume involvement?

nice chart hidden gap
now price is coming back to test that breakout

nowadays eurusd is like heroin addict, it just dont move

the two bars after bar A are the turning points of this chart, both have a serious effort vs result problem, till bar A everything was fine & bullish.

HG did notice supply there but..not much is talked about these two bars, mebbe VSA ignores something as important as this.

Third verse same as the first......

Not really. This GBP/USD feels a bit different than the previous post of the EUR/USD. It feels like this market might want to go UP. However, our Sharp Shooter trend trade short trigger is set. The Sharp Shooter strategy would be to wait for price to close below the "trigger number" and then look for sign of weakness. Particularly No Demand or an Up Thrust. While new "trigger numbers" can be created as the market moves forward, we would have to patiently wait. There could be trades within the "trigger zone". The "trigger zone" is created by marking the Low, High and close of the hypodermic volume bar. But the Sharp Shooter strategy would by-pass on any trades in this area.

I find it interesting that the first time the market auctioned down below the "trigger number", we found buyers and a Buying Aggression bar was created, AKA a Spring. Keeping with what Vcv13 showed in his earlier post, the real "trigger line" may in fact be the low of the Spring.

Not sure what happened but there was a line of thought to where you waited for hulls to send you an alert of a trend change then you used VSA to confirm the trend change.

Added to the position, going to be a nice run up I think. I will look to take a little profit at 1.0084

Last chance!

**EDIT** That fell through, there is always tomorrow

Looking at the left I would consider only shorts, a bit higher you entered your long. Why did you long this?

I went long because of the trend change after what I thought was a bottom with a test.

I discounted the up thrust because it was at NY close and the news release was for NZD and not AUD. What I am taking away from this is that I should have left it alone with the up thrust occurring when it did.

usually in wyckoff we'd like to see the ice being broken but the lack of demand we see after those downbars gave away the plot.

What a brilliant thread! Thank you especially to malcomb, prez and hiddengap. A wealth of information in the insightful posts you guys have made here. As good a vsa resource as I have found anywhere

Wow. The trader who fears volatility; fears profit. It's been an interesting couple of days in the Euro. I want to start with Thursday, then jump back to Wednesday and then end on Friday (today).

Thursday:
The value of the "Trigger number" concept shows itself yet again. This time with a trade set up to the long side. You can see we had a Sign of Strength (SOS) in an UP Trend, after we broke above the trigger number on some Buying Aggression. At the time the signal bar appears, both Chart Mode I and II are UP. And price is above the BPL. Remember, how you choose to define trend is up to you. But this strategy understands that the trend is not just your friend, it's your lover.

While price did trade above the Trigger Number earlier, it was during non-optimal trading times. If the market would have taken off then, it would have done so without us....On to the next opportunity. There are always other opportunities in the market.

Wednesday:
Let's take a look at where the Trigger Number came from. There was a really large Shake Out on this day. The market is an auction. Price auctioned low enough to attract buyers in a big way. Collectively, buyers were more willing to hit the "ask", then sellers were willing to hit the "bid"- the definition of Buying Aggression. Our expectation is that the low would hold. It did. We did not get any full bars below, even though there was no immediate acceptance above (Market Profile). Another expectation is that the high, once breached would act as support. That is exactly why, we can set our Trigger Number (for a long) at the High of the Buying Aggression bar. Again, from a VSA perspective, just replace Extreme volume bar for Buying Aggression bar.

Note there is another interval that has even more volume. It would create a slightly lower Trigger Number, but the entry signal bar would remain the same. I choose to use the Buying Aggression bar, but if you moved the trigger, you would not be wrong.

Friday:
NFP day. As always, we do not want to trade the news; we want to trade the reaction to the news. We see an extreme range bar on hypodermic volume, that closes off its high with the next bar down. This is weakness. VSA teaches us that markets do not like high volume UP bars. For a short trade, we would want to see price trade blow the Trigger number while the trend is DOWN, and then look for any Sign of Weakness (SOW) to get short. The Trigger would be set at the low of this extreme bar. Should the market move UP, the Close and especially the High could be used as up-side Trigger Numbers. Also keep in mind that new Trigger bars can be created at anytime, so you might be able to "get short from higher, or long from lower".

Thanks HG, did you program ensign yourself? Are you trading this way more now and less emphasis on the eb7?

Nice to see your input

SL i just took.
Anyway, i like this trade - i saw nice uptrend and no strong SOW for me. Test from trendline - i look at this trade just as at regular loss.