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Oil and Natural Gas

  • #2,821
  • Jun 8, 2017 7:35am Jun 8, 2017 7:35am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Bought, tight stop (no new min expected edit: before bounce from prev support). k
Stopped out. Bears stronger than expected. Keeping sell orders at the prev support, but cannot estimate when it occurs after this.
k
  • #2,822
  • Jun 8, 2017 8:29am Jun 8, 2017 8:29am
Quoting Nectarios
Thanks for your reply "Exodus", I thought that was already priced in. As well as the US Crude Oil Inventories. Any ideas for support resistance levels? $45 a barrel is too cheap for many producers.
Ok, first I'm not following oil closely at the moment .. except that I hold a few oil stocks and I wish the price would hit $60

Second, I was listening to a market summary program at 04:30 GMT and the 'analyst' was asked about the oil price drop ... he said that the various Arab states are getting pretty upset with Qatar for non-oil related activities and were refusing passage of Qatar airliners through Saudi air-space, as an example. So it sounded like they expected Qatar to start pumping more oil because they haven't got anything else and they buy-in loads of food ... and stick two fingers up to OPEC even though they are OPEC members.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,823
  • Jun 8, 2017 9:12am Jun 8, 2017 9:12am
Quoting skyhok
Oil ready for longs after deep retracement {image}
Possible reward for Saudis after spat with Qatar.
  • #2,824
  • Edited 8:38pm Jun 8, 2017 3:03pm | Edited 8:38pm
H4

[email protected]====>R[46.75]
tARGET===>45.65===>45.32====[bELOW]44.89===>44.79
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  • #2,825
  • Jun 9, 2017 4:17am Jun 9, 2017 4:17am
The WTI Crude Oil market had a volatile session on Thursday, going back and forth several times. We ended up forming a bit of a hammer, and this hammer sits on top of the psychologically important $45 level. Because of this, I would not be surprised at all to see some type of bounce, but that bounce will more than likely only be met with significant selling pressure. Given enough time, I believe that the markets will find the $47 level to be too much to overcome, and therefore I’m looking to sell in that general vicinity. I believe that the markets will continue to be extraordinarily volatile, but more than anything else: bearish.

Natural Gas
Natural gas markets went back and forth during the day as well, ultimately settling on a relatively neutral candle. We’re sitting just above the $3 level which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant handle. Not only that, we have the 50% Fibonacci retracement underneath this level, so of course it would attract a lot of attention. Ultimately, I think that the market will probably bounce a bit, but if we can break down to a fresh, new low over the last couple of sessions, I think the market will then go looking for the $2.85 level. I don’t have any interest in buying, least not until we break above the $3.12 level, and currently believe that there is still a significant amount of bearish pressure and the natural gas markets as there is a serious lack of demand for not only natural gas, but energy in general. I believe rallies will continue to be selling opportunities, and that eventually we could find ourselves down near the $2.75 level, and then possibly even the $2.50 level.
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  • #2,826
  • Jun 9, 2017 4:29am Jun 9, 2017 4:29am
Nesta you have almost identical views to those of Christopher Lewis ..... intriguing
  • #2,827
  • Jun 12, 2017 5:13am Jun 12, 2017 5:13am
over===>46.20====>46.50====>47
Below===>45.65===>45.40
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  • #2,828
  • Jun 12, 2017 5:50pm Jun 12, 2017 5:50pm
H1
[email protected]====>47.18====>48.42
[email protected]====>45.22====>44.65====>44.29
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  • #2,829
  • Jun 13, 2017 4:22am Jun 13, 2017 4:22am
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices continue to consolidate near the $46/bbl figure. A daily close below support at 45.32 targets 43.79 (May 5 low, falling channel floor). Alternatively, a reversal back above the chart inflection point at 47.12 exposes the channel midline at 47.86.


Crude oil prices attempted to launch a recovery – rising to a three-day high – but the advance was aborted as the EIA projected that US shale output will rise to a record 5.48 million barrels per day in July. That continued to undermine confidence in the ability of an OPEC-led supply cut effort to offer lasting support.
Looking ahead, traders will weigh up API inventory flow data against the OPEC monthly report to gauge the balance of forces shaping the supply/demand balance. The former will be sized up against official DOE data expected to show a 2.2 million barrel draw on the following day.

Source
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  • #2,830
  • Jun 14, 2017 1:13pm Jun 14, 2017 1:13pm
It seems we might be near a good buy zone for WTI oil, I would say a long position at current price is not a bad risk
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  • #2,831
  • Jun 14, 2017 4:19pm Jun 14, 2017 4:19pm
d1
below===>44.50====>44.30[break]====>43.72
Sl:44.29
Long
tp===45.22
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  • #2,832
  • Jun 14, 2017 4:44pm Jun 14, 2017 4:44pm
WTI oil drops again very fast from the 46.00 level, seems like the rise in the US dollar and the crude inventories have pressure the commodity lower. Its next support area could be at the 44.00 zone.
  • #2,833
  • Jun 15, 2017 4:22am Jun 15, 2017 4:22am
I am going to listen to this again, but I post here because it has a direct impact on the oil supply from the ME.

Inserted Video
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,834
  • Jun 15, 2017 11:45am Jun 15, 2017 11:45am
Quoting Exodus
I am going to listen to this again, but I post here because it has a direct impact on the oil supply from the ME. https://youtu.be/RnJxkkpnEtY
so, under Qatar things influence and energy oversold I decide long oil... and under water now..., Saudis desperately needs higher oil, US supports Saudis but oil going down..., don't understand what's going on, should have been wait to go long but afraid to miss the boat...
  • #2,835
  • Jun 15, 2017 1:06pm Jun 15, 2017 1:06pm
Quoting medvic
{quote} so, under Qatar things influence and energy oversold I decide long oil... and under water now..., Saudis desperately needs higher oil, US supports Saudis but oil going down..., don't understand what's going on, should have been wait to go long but afraid to miss the boat...
Can you place a rising-buy order? Then you can let go down and automatically connect when it rises again. Perhaps not as simple as it sounds
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,836
  • Jun 15, 2017 2:15pm Jun 15, 2017 2:15pm
Quoting medvic
{quote} so, under Qatar things influence and energy oversold I decide long oil... and under water now..., Saudis desperately needs higher oil, US supports Saudis but oil going down..., don't understand what's going on, should have been wait to go long but afraid to miss the boat...
the bear swing imho completes cca 20-25 cents below current price (if it would go below that, it will proceed several dollars further down). i am buying there.
k
  • #2,837
  • Jun 15, 2017 2:17pm Jun 15, 2017 2:17pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} the bear swing imho completes cca 20-25 cents below current price (if it would go below that, it will proceed several dollars further down). i am buying there. k
thanks K, thinking the same...
  • #2,838
  • Jun 15, 2017 4:00pm Jun 15, 2017 4:00pm
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count
The Baker Hughes Rig Counts are an important business barometer for the drilling industry and its suppliers. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for products used in drilling, completing, producing and processing hydrocarbons. This particular case represents the number of rigs drilling exclusively for oil.
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  • #2,839
  • Jun 16, 2017 5:06am Jun 16, 2017 5:06am
Quoting nesta
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count The Baker Hughes Rig Counts are an important business barometer for the drilling industry and its suppliers. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for products used in drilling, completing, producing and processing hydrocarbons. This particular case represents the number of rigs drilling exclusively for oil.
Wow, it was down in the 400s a year ago!
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,840
  • Jun 16, 2017 10:25am Jun 16, 2017 10:25am
The WTI Crude Oil market fell again during the day on Thursday, reaching towards the $44 level. I think that given enough time, the sellers will return on any rally’s, and the $45 level above should be resistance. Ultimately, the market continues to be volatile but with a pressure. I think that the $43.50 level underneath is probably where we are heading, and I believe that the oversupply issue in the oil market continues to be a major issue when it comes to this. Given enough time, I expect the market to sell off yet again as we continue to struggle. I think that the market is a long way away from turning around, so therefore I don’t really have a scenario in which a willing to buy, and I believe that the absolute “ceiling” is the $47 level.
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