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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #57,441
  • Jun 11, 2017 4:41am Jun 11, 2017 4:41am
Quoting Jupiter
My friend and my friends. I am worried 'cause I didn't see any comment to the "Apocalypse Now" image that I posted. It was a bomb for me... not for you?
Hello Jupiter,

Sorry, I rather misunderstood the issue and necessity to reflect. Your chart, unforunately, is not within my MO. One of my acquainted used to be in a long battle and lost 5M, he isn't friendly with FX from that time. Another acquinted of mine has been loyal to the pair for 12 years. For the last 3 years he has successfully been dancing in one direction only. I'm not sure that he is still in the same mood.

That's why I don't have any sight on the matter apart from that I do see the chart but I don't feel it, thus unable to dance, beyond my Response Reflex.

Best regards, Exnav
Inserted Video
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,442
  • Jun 11, 2017 4:56am Jun 11, 2017 4:56am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} 10-4. Received and understood. We all have to walk "The Path of Least Resistance". There's no other way. Comfort Zone is really personal and individual matter and measure. Search, study, experiment, internalise. Find what is dangerous or profitable for you. This is what I did by myself and it worked and works for now (until when?) I read fti's narrative and storytelling as the passage of a Professional from big institutions to retailer's dimension... It was not easy to find the balance for him (remember the skew and levels variations?) and...
thanks, jupiter
  • #57,443
  • Jun 11, 2017 4:59am Jun 11, 2017 4:59am
Thanks, Cookie.
Sorry for my Italian passionate tone of voice.
  • #57,444
  • Jun 11, 2017 5:00am Jun 11, 2017 5:00am
Hi Jupiter

"Apocalypse Now"

what you are showing is that retail are very often on the wrong side.

for me i can understand this being of value if you trade over long periods of time, but trading as i do mainly in M15/5 and doing daily analysis this does not fit with my MO, for me the time the clue takes to develop that retail are wrong at tops/bottoms on the daily chart would mean i would miss a lot of other shorter term trading opportunities that do fit with my personal trading MO.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,445
  • Edited 6:02am Jun 11, 2017 5:36am | Edited 6:02am
Quoting phil13
Hi Jupiter "Apocalypse Now" what you are showing is that retail are very often on the wrong side.
Right and nice. Correct.
I reflected so much on that data, phil13. So I had time to react.

At first you could have the impression that the mistake is only at the extremes.
Unfortunately, the horrible reality is:
> They are wrong always. (Alex intuition) 50/50 on range...
> They are wrong at each swing.
> The battle is on every micro consolidation
> At minor intermediate Top and Bottom... etcetera

They are right (naturally) only at the Absolute Top and Bottom and 50/50 in ranges.
Retailers want only and just the reverse. This is, I feel, the main problem.
They don't understand, and as consequence, don't play the continuation.
No comprehension of direction and wrong decisions everywhere... (and they spend time talking of their SL hunted)

(Extreme, violent simplification to explain clearly my personal view.)

Of course if I want to sell... I need somebody who wants to buy.
This is the base of the market.
All players cannot win...
Winners' decision and losers' decision at each move... trapped traders everywhere and relative consequences.

I think that we need fti and his guide to go on this issue.
I offer that image to your judgment and observation.
That was the picture and this one the frame.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Market structure (Apex)(Vertex and Base).png Size: 206 KB
  • #57,446
  • Jun 11, 2017 8:22am Jun 11, 2017 8:22am
Hi Jupiter

So from what you have said above this is my understanding of how you have presented it, please correct me if I am wrong in my understanding.

I know how the market works and is set up, thanks for the diagram it is a good representation of it.


Form this data (retail positions) you can tell..

All the tops bottoms and pullbacks in a way that you can take full advantage of trading them on the lower time frames (M15/5).

I understand that for me to sell someone has to buy.

So my main question is now, where is this chart from?, at first I thought you are showing ‘COT’ data, but I do not think this is, I think it is spot broker data, can you please confirm before we continue.

Sorry doing other things today so may not get quick response.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,447
  • Jun 11, 2017 9:00am Jun 11, 2017 9:00am
Quoting phil13
this is my understanding of how you have presented it,..
Thanks, phil13... you are my comfort.

1) Of course my images on “Price Delivery” and Market Structure are simplified.
Hope fti won't kill me. But yes, they give the idea.

2)Yes. FXCM Customers - total official spot positions.
On the view of this point as strategy (thing that I apply) I'd wait fti return and his guide.
Too delicate, as you know and could see.

I have prepared, in the meantime, two other data/chart on retailers decisions, that could be much clearer than the previous one.
The curve, to me, appears constantly and rhythmically divergent from price.
Seems to converge only during the ranging phase.

But, now, I'm obliged at a new example of my reasoning.
What consequence I see for a TAF reader that doesn't understand or is unprepared.
(And in the past I was one... not even the shadow of arrogance. LOL)

#14560 – auxesis – (and Fana against market direction)
Great auxesis, on this post he is superlative. Work hard on this, and on the other posts around.
Then, again: basic Dow definition of trend, when a trend must be considered changed... blah blah blah... same old list.


Take your time. Market will be there tomorrow. Take care.
Hours of study are money in the bank. Trust me. “Preplanned actions”... “If... then”... Franco you are so boring.
Be always safe. Don't buck the the trend. Don't fight the tape. Let the trend be your friend. Don't feed the Alligators.


P.S
#54376 – fti - Every one makes weird elephant of my picture.

How could I dare say that I understood the teaching?
I never said that.
I'm “Mr no one”, humble student of markets...
I have got lots of troubles and a breeding farm of scorpions.
I'm only pointing my finger toward some morsels and crumbs.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Retailers' Positions on the Move.pdf   331 KB | 645 downloads
  • #57,448
  • Edited 10:51am Jun 11, 2017 10:39am | Edited 10:51am
I have been reading for one hour around this post #14560 that actually I know by heart...
Auxesis wrote from USA... his tone of voice is as passionate as mine. LOL
OK?
Listen well to fti... I hear his voice each time I think to do a stupid thing.

#14570 - tears to my eyes (what is it: laughing to death, sadness, my desperation...?)

Now watch again the data on retailers' decisions.
  • #57,449
  • Jun 11, 2017 11:33am Jun 11, 2017 11:33am
Hi Jupiter

Ok my friend, I know the response to this spot broker data, it has already been discussed on the thread previously, but I will respect your decision to wait for fti to return and get his comments, I will not say any more about this strategy of yours.

You do understand that the post you have highlighted from Auxesis and the trade they are referring to, the analysis used is based around/in line with dow theory not spot volumes and as you rightly highlighted in the above post dow theory is suggested in the thread as a something for us read about/investigate.

Have a good rest of the weekend.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,450
  • Edited 12:15pm Jun 11, 2017 11:42am | Edited 12:15pm
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello Jupiter, How cannot I agree with you and Alexandria. Significance and value of 3 Pillars. It seems to me that we have been in the same boat. As for the Mindset and Men (Ladies) of Determination, have just finished "HMS Ulysses" by Alister Maclean. Best regards, Exnav https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3Es3xoqki4
Just for the record I am not telling anyone what they should do. There are lots of ways to skin a cat.

FTI tells us that generally we should not rescue against trend - he shows in an example that we should kill dead in waters men - to rescue against trend you need a sound plan, fast in/out, spread your men & maybe lots of time and deep pockets. I do think many peeps rescue against trend when stop and reverse would be much better and less stressful - also maybe take dead men out in ceasefire pullback after you know you are wrong to reduce overall loss. Or you could leave your wrong men in and let price run against them - you can wait for bleeding to stop ie distribution to square out (but it may take a lot of time and be minimal reactions for a long time - you may need to do lots of in/outs while you could be missing the nice trend run ) - OR you could leave dead men on field and put more men in the other way to stop bleeding and gather rations maybe even get enough rations to do full rescue or give time til it hits critical point where you may get nice change your way. OR you can take dead men off field and put higher numbers back in later when price is going your way. There are lots of ways to do this - but some are more dangerous than others - it is up to each of us which ways we use and when. I do rescue against trend - but am changing how I do it using a mix of tools and market needs to give nice signals in the right places. Of course you would not always stop and reverse if market is showing you signs that this is not the time or place to do it. As a general rule - trend + momentum + terrain is always best way to go.

Boy trading is dangerous.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,451
  • Jun 12, 2017 12:23am Jun 12, 2017 12:23am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Just for the record I am not telling anyone what they should do. There are lots of ways to skin a cat. As a general rule - trend + momentum + terrain is always best way to go. Boy trading is dangerous. Alex
Hello Alexandria,

Thank you for the elaboration.

I would like to specify the HMS brave men feat point.
There also was a "feat" by the 2nd Russian Squadron in the Battle of Tsushima. Overconfident, steadfast and determined way to lose and die. For the records, I'm not speculating on any war heroes or victims. All due respects and honours...

It's about AoW and Trading. And that's related back to my recent post, everything has been indicated in the Thread earlier:

/Once you have shown your weapon, be ready to use it or die... If you can't stand the heat, get out from the kitchen.../
"Recklessness, which leads to destruction;
Cowardice, which leads to capture;
A hasty temper, which can be provoked by insults." (Sun Tzu, AoW, Variation in Tactics)

And, Alexandria, frankly, what are we discussing here if 80 - 99% of Fx "traders" are destined to be losers or fail? Should we at each our post state a Disclaimer? Has anyone blaimed you personally on any of your thoughts or information sharing?
I recall, e.g., a turmoil around MaMood. For FTI, that was one of his major concerns, one may read how he presents himself and why. "FOR YOU OWN SAFETY YOU ARE TO MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS OF TRADING AND YOUR BROKING ACCESS TO THE MARKET AND AT YOUR OWN RISK."

Hopefully, you will understand my point. Ready to step out if amiss (Delicacy of honor...)

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,452
  • Jun 12, 2017 12:38am Jun 12, 2017 12:38am
Quoting Jupiter
Now watch again the data on retailers' decisions.
Hello Jupiter,

Regarding your last posts on Retailers' decisions... Would it contribute to my MO and Market Knowledge?
I'd rather of the opinion to stay with basics and doing what makes one consistently profitable as well as adapting to Market developments and changes. E.g., recalling Zoran and other Veterans searching for "spiral within spiral", etc.

Otherwise, it's indeed interesting to read from you.

Best regards, Exnav
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Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,453
  • Jun 12, 2017 12:59am Jun 12, 2017 12:59am
Inserted Video
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,454
  • Jun 12, 2017 2:22am Jun 12, 2017 2:22am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello Alexandria, Thank you for the elaboration. ....

I am not upset at anything just always wonder how things could be interpreted - so wanted to add a note just in case.

You are right it is hot in that kitchen some times.

Good fortune my friend.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,455
  • Jun 12, 2017 3:45am Jun 12, 2017 3:45am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} ... just always wonder how things could be interpreted - so wanted to add a note just in case. ...
How true.

So to conclude my contribution and remove my disturbing presence....
On bargain I answered and someone gets it, I know.
On the rest, guys, confront directly with these. It's on these that you have to answer.
Have I interpreted them in the wrong way?
Do someone want to explain to me these quotes in proper way?

Sun Tzu
'Anger may in time change to gladness; vexation may be succeeded by content.
But a kingdom that has once been destroyed can never come again into being...
nor can the dead ever be brought back to life.
Hence the enlightened ruler is heedful, and the good general full of caution."

#4515 fti - Mounting rescues against impulse is a sin.
It makes a mockery of what I have taught, in totality.
Trading into major figure releases is another.

And now we go beyond the first 200 pages.

#52916 - fti - I trade reality, I don't trade opinions. Just trade in sync with mind. The river flows...? Flow. It stops? Stop...and don't ask why.
#54095 - fti - When in doubt... duck for cover, before check for fire.
#54098 fti -... Never send good money after bad.
To be very clear. Position up skewing rescues is only to be practised in active risk portfolio.
#54414 fti - When wrong, be humble. eat humble pie and run.
Let it go, damage control, be clever, live to fight another day. DEFEAT EGO!
#55243 fti - Mostly I would stay with previous trend until detected otherwise.
#54659 fti - Contingency: in eventuality of reversal wave formation... cut loss!!!
This is also implemented if your loss exceed your 10% account net value threshold.
Either situation you have to square out. Understand?

Which of this words you'd prefer to see written in Bold Character?Exercise: do it by yourself.
I don't need another Religious Dispute on the interpretation of the Sacred Book

Enjoy your trading and find your balance, in yourselves and in reading this amazing thread, through your work.
Thanks Cookie and Cindy for the lessons you gave me. Appreciated.
Trade well. Be safe.

P.S.
Don't answer to me. Please, I beg you! Let me go.
I do nothing of esoteric... I can't really understand what you want to see.
I use ADVANCED Dow Theory and BASIC Elliott Wave to deploy my scouts searching for the right direction...
then I go Full Force through the Stop of losers and trapped traders.
(Will I find your positions and your money there? It's up to you! Correct, it's your choice.)

Inserted Video
  • #57,456
  • Edited 4:19am Jun 12, 2017 3:55am | Edited 4:19am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} How true. So to conclude my contribution and remove my disturbing presence....

No ....you're stuff is pure gold if peeps read it and think.

It has helped me loads just as Phil's thread has.

Thanks my friend.

games afoot this morning... RoK shows the way. Trend + momentum + terrain.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,457
  • Edited 5:19am Jun 12, 2017 3:57am | Edited 5:19am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} No ....you're stuff is pure gold if peeps read it and think. It has helped me loads just as Phil's thread has. Thanks my friend. games afoot this morning... RoK shows the way Alex
Alex in your previous post you miss the necessary premise.
You presented a list of possibilities of rescuing against the trend.
IMHO you should have concluded saying...

"I can do all those manoeuvres I learnt thanks to:
>my account dimension
>my profit cushion/protection
>my constant profit getting (what I lose today I'll recover tomorrow, surely!)

Sure.
If you are in this condition/situation (check all 3) you can do what you want.
You are a Master. You can dominate the Market.
(yes, someone was sure of that... Livermore and Leeson just to name a few.
They were killed by a bullet and an earthquake or by their ego?
What is fti's recommandation? "Don't play God with the Market"!
What are fti reccomandations to Green_David? You decided... You decided.. You decided!)

I have a regular, steady average 1% x day... (if I don't do stupid things) as I demonstrate "live" here.
And I don't fight the Irresistible Force anymore.
I learnt when and where the Trend (my guide and leader) must be considered changed.
I invested my time not on searching to be profitable when I am wrong! OK?
She says Tango! and I tango., it took ME years to understand this fti!

The fti I love is this one:
> No clinging.
> Attachment is the root of suffering.
I know why he wrote that.
(Different phase in the life of this thread...)

P.S. Last sentence...
I don't teach anything. Have nothing to sell. I'm not opening a Blog.
I'm only inviting to reflect on some – selected - fti posts.
He is the Teacher by mentoring (fill in my sketch by yourself!)
Study and study again. Try. Study again. Knowledge is power.
  • #57,458
  • Jun 12, 2017 4:12am Jun 12, 2017 4:12am
Hello Friends,

As far as I'm concerned, whatever opinion is welcome and appreciated. Many and different views of different people. That's fine.

Matter to ponder: this is the only TAF thread - book based on a genuine FTI wisdom. Although, there are different people coming to read, interpret and participate, with all sorts of intends and of different levels of knowledge, skills and understanding. All of them are reading our stuff. Then, do we in fact care of it? We are friendly but we may fight each other on the Trading Battlefield. Remember FTI's: there are no friends when it comes to money, there are only interests.

..."Delicacy of honour" is one of five dangerous faults...

Let's stay friendly. Good fortune to all!

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,459
  • Jun 12, 2017 4:26am Jun 12, 2017 4:26am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} Alex in your previous post you miss the necessary premise.......

Sorry I do not understand what I have missed.

But thanks again anyway fun rereading FTI stuff... pure gold and seem to learn something new each time or when I am wavering from the norm.

Trend + momentum + terrain + RoK + me.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,460
  • Edited 5:16am Jun 12, 2017 5:04am | Edited 5:16am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Sorry I do not understand what I have missed. But thanks again anyway fun rereading FTI stuff... pure gold and seem to learn something new each time or when I am wavering from the norm. Trend + momentum + terrain + RoK + me. Alex
Sorry.
I am the grandfather here.
Rushing, I missed the shot. What a shame.
Tried to edit.
The message is important.
Please. Re-read it.
#57457.
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