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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #57,421
  • Edited 3:03am Jun 10, 2017 2:53am | Edited 3:03am
Phil was right.
I could seem, in fact, "uncorrect" in the use of my post.

I used to work in advertising. We use words and image strongly and directly.
This was the sentence.

If, instead, you are a theorist of the coin toss.... what does all my bullshit matter to you?

Who am I referring? I'm speaking in general, of course. But I want (I chose) that expression.
Do you feel in it another possible misunderstanding?
What I wanted to communicate?

We all see what we want to see. It is the lesson fti gave me personally. So touching to me.
Remember it's the same in front of a chart.
  • #57,422
  • Jun 10, 2017 3:04am Jun 10, 2017 3:04am
Hmm Advanced lvl
I am here for now

". It will seem difficult at first, but everything is difficult at first. Bows are difficult to draw, halberds are difficult to wield. In each case, you get used to the tool: as you become accustomed to the bow your pull will become stronger, and as you become used to wielding the long sword, you will gain the power of the Way and wield the sword easily." -- THE EARTH BOOK

My scorpions are strong
I will always watch for this in my own development if any

post 21569
  • #57,423
  • Edited 3:36am Jun 10, 2017 3:05am | Edited 3:36am
Last example... full fulllllllllll of meanings.

The following enclosed image.
Retailers positions' on Eurodollar at the moment of the Historical Turn.
Source FXCM data.

Terrain Analysis (my way to read the acronym...TA)
Trend up: retailers selling... (red bars down show the volume of sellers – how many were short)
Trend down: retailers buying...(green bars for buyers)
Ranging – for the simple reason of 50/50's law... someone makes money... (balance/equilibrium = market decides life/death)

How many positions are there... waiting for the euro's return? LOL – ROFL Intention absolutely superironic!
OK... I'll tell you. I was there and I tried to rescue my mistake. OK?

Friends, look at this data.
This is Permanent “Apocalypse Now”... the real game (Livermore's terminology!) ... every day.

That's all. My friends.
I was not and I'm not teaching. I use my finger to point at fti's wisdom with all my respect.

We all see what we want to see:
Alex - I thinks peeps worry about whether it is reversal or retrace and for some reason many peeps try to call tops/bottoms all time.

There is a new thread on FF: "Do you think brokers hunt your stop?". OMG.
Bye
Attached Image
  • #57,424
  • Jun 10, 2017 3:53am Jun 10, 2017 3:53am
XXXX

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UYIAfiVGluk
Time hides Nothing
  • #57,425
  • Jun 10, 2017 4:11am Jun 10, 2017 4:11am
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Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,426
  • Edited 9:26am Jun 10, 2017 5:24am | Edited 9:26am
There is a new thread on FF: "Do you think brokers hunt your stop?". OMG.
  • #57,427
  • Edited 9:49am Jun 10, 2017 9:29am | Edited 9:49am
My apologies.
Correct title's thread is: Do you believe brokers hunt your stop?
So the question posed in that way could be more, more subtle and could be very interesting... with that believe.
I saw what I wanted to see.

IMHO... Question, of course, is not the broker... question is the essence of the market.
What in reality Mother Market is... Supply & Demand... and how the market works.
And this fti territory.
I showed only the horrible and sad reality. Yes again Exnav. Reality and not opinion.
That is what retailers do every single day! (Of course once in a very blue moon they could be right, too.)

About Apocalypse Now".
Amongst most famous Wall Street proverbs/truisms during '800s there were:

- Some men learn only failing. (Yes. I learn everything from my euro loss. I didn't do it anymore. Will be so for long? Did I really learn?)
- Losers are always wrong. (SIMPLY FANTASTIC!)
- All players cannot win. (THAT'S RIGHT! REALITY!)
- Interrogate before negotiate.
- Everyone is wise after the event.
- Better lose the wool than the sheep.....

Market Structure, Capital and YOU. In the end, all reduces to YOU.
Thank you fti. Again and again and again.
Stay to the basic and stay always in the flow. Now, my readers, you know the truth. What Livermore knew very, very well.
Nice Alex post, I was referring to, is #57384

And I have something else from Alex, the wise girl:
#51636 – alexandria - … Accept the pain?
People here seem to talk about long battles... but seems to me they are rescuing against trend. (Yes, I did! Ahi!)

Franco

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  • #57,428
  • Jun 10, 2017 10:40am Jun 10, 2017 10:40am
Quoting fti
Hi All, The Year is drawing to a close. And Ii was thinking, what is the most appropriate present for you chaps. So here it is, I hope you like it. After after 3 years since I unveiled it for you , it seems that many still connot understand this point. Sometimes people gets so into the woods that they cannot see the forest. 3 years ago, I said that it is important that you understand the structure of the OTC markets. And in the aow training I hinted that you must know "the enemy' and "the terrain" in which you battled. The point still eludes...

No real S/D? Only pips ?
  • #57,429
  • Jun 10, 2017 10:47am Jun 10, 2017 10:47am
Quoting pdym
{quote} No real S/D? Only pips ?
He is talking About your order tru the channel of the broker, iT has no supply/demand impact on the interbank market. The brokers are offering a derivative of the real fx market.

regards
  • #57,430
  • Jun 10, 2017 11:00am Jun 10, 2017 11:00am
hmm
"Once a while , the agencies will release figs to induce the deflating of that loss bubble, so that the process can continue. Do not think that buying and selling of the currencies have any impact on the markets. It has impact only at apex levels."
Maybe but i think he is not saying about sandbox but about real market... maybe i am very wrong pls forgive me.

"You can buy or sell a billion, it will still have no impact. It has only rippling impact only, before the pips are taken out. Then it becomes a bubble for the apex to manipulate. Such is the structure of OTC markets."
  • #57,431
  • Jun 11, 2017 1:19am Jun 11, 2017 1:19am
Hi Jupiter

no worries my friend, the past is the past..... the monk story.

A smile, a hug, a shake of hand... to you. (friends).

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,432
  • Edited 3:01am Jun 11, 2017 2:14am | Edited 3:01am
Quoting pdym
Hmm Advanced lvl I am here for now ". It will seem difficult at first, but everything is difficult at first. Bows are difficult to draw, halberds are difficult to wield. In each case, you get used to the tool: as you become accustomed to the bow your pull will become stronger, and as you become used to wielding the long sword, you will gain the power of the Way and wield the sword easily." -- THE EARTH BOOK My scorpions are strong I will always watch for this in my own development if any post 21569
Hello Pdym,

Being at the Intermediate level and learning on the Advanced one, to me, the Long Sword would be a Proficiency one. At that level it would be about a very relaxed pushing buttons and just harvesting. It's exactly what is claimed in FX brokers ads. Will I do at least my Upper-Intermediate?

Then, you are in concurrence with FTI's: "The importance of training and experience." On the other hand: "Its not possible to drill and use brains at the same time." (No. 56851)

And his reminders to everyone (No. 56862) "I guessing was inverted disorientation. So unfortunate.
Reminds me about contingencies also."

And after every successful streak I need to recall FTI's addressing to me: "i see you are sharpening your bayonet.
Have a great dance." That was 5 months ago and followed by my human mistake (due to unhealthy mind: maybe too relaxed and overconfident - it's just that very simple, you are invincible, you can manage whatever situation the Market may throw you in).

What I'm keeping in mind from the above: "You are as good as your last trade". Training is not drilling.
Apart from the Rule 1 (Preservation of CAP), ... you might have a robust MM, then: all your Terrain Reading skills, MM rules, MO would be nothing and all your Anthill may be destroyed at once (not by a Tsunami) but by the paramount thingy: YOU

You are successful when all three indicators are affirmative: Market Knowledge, CAP and YOU.

And another hint that has already been stressed over: about the Market Knowledge and AoW.

Someone expressed: you can be profitable in FX only by an authentic information (confidential, coming from a secret and reliable source). Ciphered phone coversation with the source: " a confirmed data, at that ... time will be a long move by .... (whatever, e.g., forces concert) to reach price at...) You trust the source since it has not failed for more than 10 years. I think that you know the outcome. It costed for my acquinted and involved some 3 months to recover.

Which is why: "you are a captain of your own ship" (by FTI). Follow your own MO and stay uncorrupted.

Best regards, Exnav

P.S. Edit: To be correct, as regards the Secret Source story, please keep it as an imaginary case study. It happened some 2.5 years ago. That source was a partner at a bank and he had never advised on any order, just executed those...

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Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,433
  • Jun 11, 2017 2:25am Jun 11, 2017 2:25am
Quoting Jupiter
Market Structure, Capital and YOU. In the end, all reduces to YOU. Thank you fti. Again and again and again. Stay to the basic and stay always in the flow. Now, my readers, you know the truth. What Livermore knew very, very well. Nice Alex post, I was referring to, is #57384 And I have something else from Alex, the wise girl: #51636 alexandria - Accept the pain? People here seem to talk...
Hello Jupiter,

How cannot I agree with you and Alexandria. Significance and value of 3 Pillars. It seems to me that we have been in the same boat.
As for the Mindset and Men (Ladies) of Determination, have just finished "HMS Ulysses" by Alister Maclean.

Best regards, Exnav

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Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,434
  • Jun 11, 2017 3:14am Jun 11, 2017 3:14am
I am trying to fight with my scorpions like be against a trend

But my thinking about Long sword I think we got smth wrong about this. There is no Long sword for us "I think" FTI told us long sword is options and holding to trend in the long term is just a short sword ( scout over night with profits from daylight position). For me advanced lvl dosent exist it is just refining and advancing with skill and stay to basics but be more proficient at this. One thing i tend to think is this MM is not Money Management is a Mind Management.

I am whey behind you all in learning so if i said stupid things help me pls
  • #57,435
  • Jun 11, 2017 3:33am Jun 11, 2017 3:33am
Hi pdym

Try to find a very simple but effective way of helping you determine the higher time frames trend (daily and hourly), this will help keep on track in the lower frames. BUT sometimes you will buy top and sell bottoms still, this is just part of trading.

You are correct long sword is options and fti said they have no part in what we do here as retail traders.

Do not worry where you are in your learning curve, we all started at the beginning and only practice will help you advance your skillsets, no questions are silly unless someone has no bothered to read the thread beginning and just want short cuts.

Money and mind management are two different skills we need to understand, they blend together as one (as does the rest of it) when everything is right and ready within you, a lot of people neglect these very important parts of trading, only you can find out about you and learn to understand how you work and why, once you do understand something (anything) you can then set about adjusting it to work in your favour.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,436
  • Jun 11, 2017 3:43am Jun 11, 2017 3:43am
Quoting pdym
I am trying to fight with my scorpions like be against a trend But my thinking about Long sword I think we got smth wrong about this. There is no Long sword for us "I think" FTI told us long sword is options and holding to trend in the long term is just a short sword ( scout over night with profits from daylight position). For me advanced lvl dosent exist it is just refining and advancing with skill and stay to basics but be more proficient at this. One thing i tend to think is this MM is not Money Management is a Mind Management. I am whey behind...
Hello Pdym,

"be against a trend" - according to FTI and Phil, your Trend might be H1/Day in syncrony, my Trend is a price flow direction;
"Long Sword" - agree, for me it's the Proficiency level;
"advance lvl" - agree;
"this MM is not Money Management is a Mind Management" - it's up to the Captain of the Ship; all 3 Pillars must be in healthy and sound harmony;
"I am whey behind you all in learning so if i said stupid things help me pls" - this is very important to elaborate. Therefore:

Never trust anyone on what is stated, even with successful logs proving one's success. E.g., even if I were able to provide hand held over phone/skype, how may I take responsibility on your Ship? Then, is something goes otherwise that you expected, it's YOU, you will see and feel what you see and feel. How could we have the same Response Reflex - impossible. E.g., FTI goes long when all trends and current flows moves are obvously short and he starting to add Long. OK, 20 X scouts Long. If it went still more short, would you be able to Respond effectively?
I may have 9 years with FX spot, does it matter, if 5 months ago I committed a human mistake? We may return to this conversation in some 6 months from now for check-in.
What I might dare to state is important, IMHO: whatever is your MO, M, etc. - to experience Your Own Response once caught in Tsunami. But where are those Tsunami? When do they come?
And, none would reject an idea of luck and chances, coincidences. You may know when the BREXIT decision takes place and be prepared, but you may not know when a terrorist attack affected the Market, or a natural disaster...
I believe that there are not stupid things unless in aggressive or provocative manner. But even those well helps traders to train their minds.

Therefore, please proceed with your postings. I'm also convinced that our Friends, FTI's followers would be more than happy to help you and everyone interested in.

Enjoy the trading process!

Best regards, Exnav

P.S. You have had opportunity to come here and participate in at least last two weeks discussions. Please reread these posts and references indicated there by our Friends
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,437
  • Jun 11, 2017 3:54am Jun 11, 2017 3:54am
Thank you very much "my" problem is that from "knowing" to "doing" is a 2 years jurney and i think is lost and I like probably most of us do not have any one around to talk about this . but one thing after reading and reading thread i know i can not stand to see oil sales man.I know the truth is here i just have to train my body and mind i think and stay to basic. human brain tends to react to "movement" and i think that is a component to a leraning curve
  • #57,438
  • Jun 11, 2017 3:55am Jun 11, 2017 3:55am
Hi Jupiter, guess your right, I guess I'm really chasing the shadow of fti when he was trading for the banks.
  • #57,439
  • Jun 11, 2017 4:11am Jun 11, 2017 4:11am
Quoting pdym
"my" problem is that from "knowing" to "doing" is a 2 years jurney and i think is lost and I like probably most of us do not have any one around to talk about this . but one thing after reading and reading thread i know i can not stand to see oil sales man.I know the truth is here i just have to train my body and mind i think and stay to basic. human brain tends to react to "movement" and i think that is a component to a leraning curve
Hello Pdym,

You must be on right track. Please don't treat my wording "Never trust anyone on what is stated," literraly. It's your accountability on understanding and applying of AoW, to dissect and recognize the truth to find Your Own Way, Yourself. Through knowledge, understanding, practising.
Be confident, prudent, a Determined Warrior!

Best regards, Exnav

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Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,440
  • Edited 4:39am Jun 11, 2017 4:21am | Edited 4:39am
Quoting CookieMonsta
Hi Jupiter, guess your right, I guess I'm really chasing the shadow of fti when he was trading for the banks.
10-4. Received and understood.
We all have to walk "The Path of Least Resistance".
There's no other way.
Comfort Zone is really personal and individual matter and measure.
Search, study, experiment, internalise.
Find what is dangerous or profitable for you. This is what I did by myself and it worked and works for now (until when?)

I read fti's narrative and storytelling as the passage of a Professional from big institutions to retailer's dimension...
It was not easy to find the balance for him (remember the skew and levels variations?) and it is not easy for us, too.
Get the tool and the idea and find your balance. You are so sensitive. You will succeed.

My friend and my friends.
I am worried 'cause I didn't see any comment to the "Apocalypse Now" image that I posted.
It was a bomb for me... not for you?

EDIT: Possible misunderstanding with the English Language... OMG
It was a revelation to me, a bomb in my mind... not for you?
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