Are Fibonacci levels overrated?

1. You need to stop looking for a 100 percent strategy. I'm extremely close to having extremely low loss system with my final upgrade to my system, but guess what, that means I'll have to leave a few more pips on the table because of the way the new exit system works. It will be only after I've traded the new exit system for at least a year will I find out if overall I'll make more than I did when I let my stop loss get hit and exit at higher R:R ratio. In my first few trades I've have no loss but only a couple of trades that reached their full potential, whereas the others were exited at 2-3 pips because of the new exit system. The amount of stress relief I get knowing that I will get extremely low number of red trades is amazing, but again, I cannot predict that from now on I will never hit my stop loss. This is simply not true because of one sole reason. If any crazy news comes out then even my extremely strict system will not be able to stop the price from hitting my SL. So, I'll be spending the next 11 months trying to find out if my new system works or not. It's the underlying principle of retracement that is set in stone for my trading style and not the specific mechanical rules.

2. These levels should only give you an idea how much price correction has taken place. Beyond that, you need a robust entry system to take advantage of these retracements. This robust system should lag more than price.

3. Finally, you need to focus on particular levels that allow you to enter early but the robust entry system makes sure that you are not entering way too early. The lagging entry should delay your entry but the levels focused on should give you enough retracement to let both the robust entry system and levels work in harmony.

No, they are not.

I recommend Constance Brown's book:



If you use Fibonacci Analysis in your trading and you have not dogeared this book to death, it is my humble opinion that you are not treating yourself to one of the really good ways to optimize your decision making process. When you read and understand this book, take the time to go back to the roots of H.M Gartley, then people like Larry Pesavento, start to make more sense.

Constance, provides what I think are some of the 'missing links' in the typical understanding of how and most importantly when to assume that the market is "harmonic" and in what time frame.

Successful Trading and see you next year! (this will be the only post I make in this particular thread)

I haven't seen succesful traders using fibonacci levels.But I have seen succesful traders using fixed point theorem: http://mathworld.wolfram.com/FixedPoint.html

Yes. Why would 61.8 mean anything?
This is very simple.
fibbonacci projections happen to COINCIDE with instos GETTING DISCOUNT and GETTING PAID

when a bank accumulates a huge position they want to GET PAID meaning a full roration of price. And vic versa they want TO ACCUMULATE on a discount.
the reason fibs dont work all the time? Because its not the reason the markets moves. Lol. Sometimes they coincide and sometimes they dont.

I realize this is an antique comment, but it is confusing. If the total of all data points is 100%, how can all these levels be hit with these percentages? The sum is well over 100%. Does it mean price keeps punching through level after level? I guess so. Therefore, the answer would be, as it always has been...you have no idea which line is which. There is a 63.8% chance that all four lines will be hit, lol, so which one is the correct one? Who would want to trade guesses?

Sorry for your loss. Been there, done that. Best of Luck.

Yes they work but depends on how you use and view them. There is no holy grail method
to use Fibonnaci sequences. Sometimes they work sometimes they don't. Why? Because markets
move feeding on liquidity and emotions and the statistics change every single second.
I use it as a confluence area and follow my setup, the profits or losses depends on the market.