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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #57,401
  • Jun 8, 2017 9:50am Jun 8, 2017 9:50am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} Hi Phil... at last a conversation in which I'm deeply interested! LOL So.. sound so ridiculous to your ears? Possible misunderstanding behind each corner? You can't imagine how scary I am in writing here. Let me make a rich and tasty laugh telling me something about. Really! It would be great! Want you?
Hi Jupiter

it was a compliment to your writing the way you do. (with passion not 'angry')

i know sometimes (at first) it is scary to post here, was there once myself a long time ago.

not sure what you want to tell me?? a joke??

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,402
  • Jun 8, 2017 9:52am Jun 8, 2017 9:52am
Quoting Jupiter
Sorry guys. For the second time, I see a possible misunderstanding. Kindergarten was referred to my exercise of highlighting...
Hello Jupiter,

I am indeed grateful for your essential posting. A sort of a bit reviving or developing the Thread.

Your reaction is fine. Remember, "Delicacy of honor" for a General.

My persisting point would still be - how can we help a trader without immersing ourselves in real rude bloody trading world.
Only after a notorious "reflex training and training", going through falls and rises, sweaty or paralyzing adrenaline pumping one may try to become a cool and relaxed and bored consistently profitable in this lonely retailer trader business.

Also getting back to fearless, to elaborate on the point, "fearless" would not be synonym of stupid and overconfident, reckless. As you mentioned, rather a determined man.

It looks that my trading day is over. Only USD/JPY. However both EUR/USD and GBP/USD have been good as well. What BOC would ignite or our friends elections trigger tonight?

Have a nice evening! And, please keep boosting TAF thread!

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,403
  • Edited 11:59pm Jun 8, 2017 10:02am | Edited 11:59pm
Quoting phil13
{quote} .. a joke?? .
Pedestrian and letteral translation directly from the Italian language...
Give me a reason for a big and happy laugh! (but I didn't complete the sentece: "telling me something about the quality of my poor English!")
After all the hard work I did... and been so worried about the effect... I need a friendly laughter.

Thanks for the compliment... but I know you are kidding me. LOL ... my english is so elementary. It really sucks.
Very kind of you. A gentleman.

And thanks to Alex.

Guys, please, this damned thing doesn't want to jump away from support.
At what time we'll have the first exit polls from London?
  • #57,404
  • Jun 8, 2017 10:12am Jun 8, 2017 10:12am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} Pedestrian and letteral translation directly from the Italian language... Give me a reason for a big and happy laugh! Thanks for the compliment... but I know you are kidding me. LOL Very kind of you. A gentleman. And thanks to Alex. Guys, please, this damned thing doesn't want to jump away from support. At what time we'll have the first exit polls from London?

10:00 p.m. - exit predicted last 4 election results but not so good on seat numbers which will affect views.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,405
  • Jun 8, 2017 10:26am Jun 8, 2017 10:26am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} 10:00 p.m. Alex
Thanks, Alex.
Thinking to square with the profit she already gave me.
She begins to be nervous...

See... I know that I'm right! (Big words... Big ego...)
But the other side is too insistent.
So? Scaled out and I'm now playing for "pennies and dimes".
This is me.
  • #57,406
  • Jun 8, 2017 10:28am Jun 8, 2017 10:28am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} My persisting point would still be - how can we help a trader without immersing ourselves in real rude bloody trading world. Exnav
Hi Exnav

learning about money management with the use of AOW is a good place to start i would say.

but everyone's money and their management differs from person to person so no book/rules just a basic idea can be presented to be built on.... which is already in the thread.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,407
  • Edited 7:46pm Jun 8, 2017 11:07am | Edited 7:46pm
Quoting Exnav
{quote} cool and relaxed and bored consistently profitable in this lonely retailer trader business.
Complex matter.

Aim/Goals (my view - the Gann's view!):
To be sure of what you are doing in face of Mother Market variations. Calm and serene. Well prepared.
Clear mental road map. What Market does, could do and why.
Clear reactive mental schemes "if... then", completely internalised. No need to think! (I know what I am searching)

Only this prepares yourself to the extemporaneous response... how to deal with something new, out of the scheme.

1) If you mean without make a trade, away from the platform/screen...
of course my automatic/reactive answer is: read. Read as much as possibile.
And write down your discoveries and comments. Writing put things in a "more solid part" of our brain.
Avoid the "Garbage in - garbage out" effect
starting from the father-founders... (perfect phil! Sun tzu and all the commentaries, too!)
and then (at first) going through only books written by real traders!
Good mindset conquered... read everything you want.
Write. Then examine your personal comments... and walk your way, writing again.

2) I had wonderful time with Simulators... advancing bar by bar at different speed.
Repeating the same move again and again...
trying different MO/MM solution...
this was really great.
There I acquired that some sort of reflexes I think you refer.

3) If you want some idea for a different training phase on the platform...
> Demo... seriously!
With, in any case, profound respect for the money value. To feel something (fti wrote about it...)
(Limited account... and strong measurable objective of growth... x% per day, week, month)
>Simulated competitions between several traders... or a duel face to face! Always interesting.)

4) Take care of your body... we destroy ourself with too many hours of screen.
"Mens sana in corpore sano."
  • #57,408
  • Edited 12:58pm Jun 8, 2017 11:46am | Edited 12:58pm
Again.
To all.
Sorry for that "THIS"... out of place. (Go to delete it!)
I can well imagine how it sounded to some of you.
But you saw that I got it quickly. Thanks Exnav, Thanks Alex, Thanks Phil.
What a shame.

OK. I'll tell you.
This thread is so complex, so rich, so stimulating... (Alex... wrote it down so nicely!)
An island in this FF ocean of scam and naive desires!!!
fti opened gigantic doors to the possibility of study and enrichment.
Seeing all these precious suggestions continually reduced to a table of losses percentage and rescue... is destroying my heart!
So the "Learn to fly"... collective!

It was clear to me...To leave "This level of conversation" to an higher one.
Sorry.
About some other passages that could sound harsh, read them just as challenging/provocative... or passionate as Phil suggested
surely not offensive/arrogant (now I think, you know me very, very well)

But please now re-reread #57380 and 57383 with good disposition and without "moral opposition"...
And listen again to the song with a rich, big, happy smile (or laughter). So as to receive and get them without refusal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Kindergarten.JPG Size: 86 KB
  • #57,409
  • Jun 8, 2017 1:57pm Jun 8, 2017 1:57pm
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  • #57,410
  • Jun 8, 2017 9:38pm Jun 8, 2017 9:38pm
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} 4) Take care of your body... we destroy ourself with too many hours of screen. "Mens sana in corpore sano."
important.
  • #57,411
  • Edited 12:55am Jun 9, 2017 12:21am | Edited 12:55am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} Complex matter. 4) Take care of your body... we destroy ourself with too many hours of screen. "Mens sana in corpore sano."
Hello Friends,

Firstly, as expected GBP/USD was triggered. I was sleeping then....

Thank you, Jupiter, Phil, Alex, CookieMonsta and other FTI followers for yesterday's constructive and, I believe, mutually beneficial discussion - opinions exchange.

To the matter. It's fine with me, my objective was to initiate a fruitful contribution for those in search of holy grail and desperate trials, and just readers by, and Newbies. As well, when I'm posting and discussing - I'm refreshing and stamping or forming my own mind (Egor thingy)

I would be long a little this morning:

For CookieMonsta and other interested in,

It's normal for a human being to FEAR, and everyboby is aware of it. And everybody does have limits, either in mindset, IQ, or capital, physical abilities and skills polishing, etc. Even jet pilot Aces, Commando, SAS or 007 do have their limits and their luck and chances.

And now to my Trading Journal (of cource, not literally, generaly due myrriads of variations in examples and analogies, and the below depicted has already been raised within the TAF thread):

I have to reach point B from point A (my house) (by car) in a big city. Almost every trader is driving cars.

First check-in: am I mentally OK (healthy, sound, not drugged, not affected by disputes, bad mood, etc.)
Second option: I could go to B by a taxi or bus, etc. BUT - I like driving myself.
Second check-in: technical condition of my car, enough fuel, oil, perhaps winter tires, etc.
Perhaps third check-in: navigator, map if road is unkwown, as well on internet on ongoing planned road repair works, traffic jams...
I am looking around regarding weather conditions, forecast, walking myself to see it what is actually going on (scouting).
I start driving slowly and stop before choosing a direction to go. Most likely, I would like to be at B timely (it's not a two days trip anyway), trafic accident is not planned, nor punishments and stops by police, etc. (my restrictions or rules)
So, I am not driving against the traffic flow I am able to visualize, then there are several questions I wonder how I would react:
- should I speed up just to be first before next traffic light?
- would I be provoked by Too Slows, trasspassers, other aggressive drivers? would I expect that everyone around is kind and polite?
- will I focus my attention on other things (pretty girls around, phone calls, etc.) than traffic, road conditions, signs, speed limits, etc.?
- then road is road, even in the city you may have unexpected situations - road repair, accidents, jams, force major, terrorist attacks, other drugged drivers around, etc.
I do see some certain analogies with FX spot trading, don't you?
And one may continue with the list. We are driving daily and we do automatically count the above indicated matters, we see what we see in fact and we react by reflexes mostly.

Enjoy your trading Friday!
Best regards, Exnav

P.S. Comfortable driving - trading sizes.

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Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,412
  • Jun 9, 2017 1:29am Jun 9, 2017 1:29am
Quoting fti
{quote} if you remember the story i told earlier about traders who were bankrupted in the nikkei and 1 hour later became millionaires. What happened was that althought they were bankrupted by a exceeding 5000 tics sswing. But because the market recovered from the bump swing in1 hour, Their positions were not forced liquidated and as they bought much during the down swing ,The next month every one was driving one. if it was fx , all would be bankrupted already on the swing, but of course it was unfortunate for those who had placed stops,...
For those with strong ambitions and high motivation, "as above, so below":

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Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,413
  • Edited 5:59am Jun 9, 2017 1:52am | Edited 5:59am
Quack...
But this time I was the Duck.
Ahi!

Now? Waiting for the information.

9:05 EDIT - first entry was in the right direction...
second entry ... damage recovered and now in profit...
This is me!
  • #57,414
  • Jun 9, 2017 2:24am Jun 9, 2017 2:24am
AOW...

1. Sun Tzu said: The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the
possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the
enemy.
2. To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity
of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.
3. Thus the good fighter is able to secure himself against defeat, but cannot
make certain of defeating the enemy.
4. Hence the saying: One may know how to conquer without being able to
do it.

10. In battle, there are not more than two methods of attack–the direct and
the indirect; yet these two in combination give rise to an endless series of
maneuvers.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,415
  • Jun 9, 2017 4:39am Jun 9, 2017 4:39am
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...08#post7501308

How to manage your trade runs.

Nice FTI words for all.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,416
  • Jun 9, 2017 6:16am Jun 9, 2017 6:16am
Quoting Jupiter
Quack... But this time I was the Duck. Ahi! Now? Waiting for the information. 9:05 EDIT - first entry was in the right direction... second entry ... damage recovered and now in profit... This is me!
Hello Jupiter,

I believe everything is fine with you. "Let me ASSUME" that we have been in synchrony today. I mean - good dancing owing to FTI and this Friday Market Volatility.
I also suppose that you are dancing on Response Reflex. Nimble, flexible reaction to market moves.

As far as I am concerned, started USD/JPY, then EUR/USD and finished with GBP/USD. Now should follow my gains diet and your advice on screen addictiveness. There still be another week to trade... and Jupiter will be our Lucky Planet...

Have a nice week end to All Friends here!

Best regards, Exnav
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Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,417
  • Jun 10, 2017 1:28am Jun 10, 2017 1:28am
Quoting phil13
AOW... In battle, there are not more than two methods of attackthe direct and the indirect; yet these two in combination give rise to an endless series of maneuvers.
On a retrospective but valid note (by Sun Tzu, AoW, Laying Plans):
"...
15. According as circumstances are favorable, one should modify one's plans.
16. All warfare is based on deception.
17. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive...
19. If he is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is superior strength, evade him.
20. If your opponent is of choleric temper, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant...."

No wonder, why FTI's "MO" is difficult to copy or understand literally.
Once you overtly disclose your own MO in detail, be ready that your opponent will exploit the weakness. As never underevaluate, nor overestimate the Enemy. That's why we are dancing the Market moves and flow (Barely a Response Reflex).

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,418
  • Edited 2:35am Jun 10, 2017 1:32am | Edited 2:35am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Nimble, flexible reaction to market moves. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-0lV5qs1Qw

That was great. I'm done.
Thanks Exnav, very much appreciated (as your likes to my previous posts).
My dear friend, you perfectly got and received what I wanted to demonstrate. Thank you.

This really is a comfort to me, my mind, spirit and conscience.
I did right.
My presentation was comprehensible to the sensible, and to the available to receive.
A great future to you.
For me... no more needs to proceed with the third part (I had already prepared.)
You will find by yourself the correct path... with my respect for the Moth story.

To me... in Alex post, you all could find, beyond the confirmation of my reasoning till now,
also the answer to the "loop manoeuvre" debate. (Sun Tzu direct and indirect attack, in my understanding and my personal view/application/interpretation)
Remember, this is Advanced Course... this is not even University. It is Master Course.
Add only in right direction if you want to survive.
Read the fti limitations in the particular use of bargaing technique... distribution only, with foreign money (punt! he calls it punt!)
A particular, specific and limited use of it could be seen in #41503... a trade example full of little precious shades.

OK... I did it. Enough calm and serene during this storm.
Now I square.
Aside is a position.
Trade well and study.
God bless fti and his lesson.
  • #57,419
  • Edited 2:19am Jun 10, 2017 1:56am | Edited 2:19am
And after the above political & official post...
my personal, intimate reflection.

This is on my journal... personal booklet of annotations/comments/lessons learnt
in the form of a letter to you.

I have read also something clever and nice.
> Cindy (OMG, yes) - people here what they wanna hear i guess... unpredictable. (if I got it right! Duh.)
> Exnav The ship and the storm... one Tsunami each 3-6 month.
> Cookie on the need to learn.
> Pdym about misunderstanding on rescue mission (and entries!!!)
> Cindy (OMG 2 times?) - never finished (oh. How much I loved this!)

Each sentence would deserve a proper specific hundred pages!
My comment, my personal comment (who am I?) is always the same. STUDY.
Gann wrote this intro only to create the need to buy his courses and books?
(I had a copy of his advertising ad!!!! and I won't give it to anyone! ROLF not even under torture!)

Many times the reading of a book has made the fortune of a man. Has decided his way in life.
To use books rightly is to go to them for help;to appeal to them when our knowledge and power fail; to be led by them into wider sight and clear conception of our own.

We all have this beautiful thread (Exnav The Book)
dissect it, divide the different phases, understand the shades in each one, balance the periods and the weights...
and then search your path through out your work.
But don't say that there are not books of value.
Don't say, blindly, market will teach! Market will kill you! If you don't know what (and how) to search is useless.
You could repeat and repeat and repeat the same mistake for ages.
Market doesn't care of you and me. She/he/it doesn't care if I studied or not. She doesn't care of my needs. She flows her flow!
But... someone knows how to see something, even if he doesn't see the orders....

Sorry, phil. Possible misunderstanding in the last line... so I deleted it LOL... ROFL
A smile, a hug, a shake of hand... to you.

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  • #57,420
  • Jun 10, 2017 2:36am Jun 10, 2017 2:36am
Quoting Jupiter
Don't say, blindly, market will teach! Market will kill you! You could repeat and repeat and repeat the same mistake for ages. Market doesn't care of you and me. She/he/it doesn't care if I studied or not. She doesn't care of my needs. She flows her flow! But... someone knows how to see something, even if he doesn't see the orders.... If, instead, you are a theorist of the coin toss....
Hello Jupiter,

Now, I believe that I was right at least in one thing. That's I'm thankful to meet here you, Alex, Phil, CookieMonsta, Cindy and other friends. At my current stage, I recognize the utmost value of your contribution to the TAF book (by FTI and so many co-authors/followers).

Thank you very much for the introduction to the Advanced Course. I feel myself yet at an Intermediate Learning Level. Why? According to FTI, we are doing an Ants work and one must stay at comfortable size level at least a year before any upgrading. So, patience not only in MO but in Anthill building pace.
As for a gambler or super PRO trader, you might become a millionnaire in a couple of hours (Nikkei 5000 tics story), I don't have that material balls nor adventurer ambitions, nor super high class PRO Reflex feeling ready at the moment. Maybe in the next life...

My current and seemingly simple task is to hold my subconcious mind in frame of a cool Response Reflex. "No", e.g., to euphoria and lost chances. "Yes" to determination and diet. As I mentioned recently, one should stay at a healthy mindset (inter alia preconditions, reasonable adrenaline ration and sleeping well).

I am looking forward to the Thread developing on the Advanced Level as per Ants - Retailers,

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
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