Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 2870 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #57,381
  • Jun 8, 2017 1:17am Jun 8, 2017 1:17am
Quoting Jupiter
That's my point Exnav. Agree. (training & preplanned sequences!) Both: winning and confirmed... defeated and failed. We can try to exit from this kindergarten, now.
Hello Jupiter,

Thanks again for the reminders and valuable thoughts sharing. As far as MO and TA applying is concerned, I would be of your point "... please don't ask me what I did and how. You have to find YOUR understanding and YOUR style."

For me the reason is that I'm merely unable to teach nor advise on that stuff. I'd better concentrate on Mindset/ MM issues.

As for fear and fearless, I would just add a notorious saying, one would be more confident if he does not fight a battle tank with a knife blade. Although and perhaps, it might be applicable to some super 007 guys. I've not met any such human yet.

Best regards, Exnav

P.S. Maybe against the below depicted one:
Inserted Video
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,382
  • Jun 8, 2017 1:24am Jun 8, 2017 1:24am
Quoting Exnav
Hello Friends, Fear what? Fear what exactly? If something happens, you are ready to react correspondingly. Better on trained instinct. When a child I was normally playing with dogs. Then I was bitten by a weird dog. What my attitude towards the dogs should have formed? Now I have been friendly with my own German shepherd for 7 years. And we are protecting each other. I am jogging through nearby forrest. Usually, dogs are walking around over there. When running, what could I expect from those dogs? How would I react? I am jogging every day almost......

Hi Exnav

we can control 'fear' by learning to turn it into a healthy respect for something and this can only be done by understanding it.

regards

Phil.

Attached Image


posted bt Grow..
Attached Image
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,383
  • Edited 1:41am Jun 8, 2017 1:27am | Edited 1:41am
Gann:
how to defeat the two great impostors... FEAR & GREED? With study, knowledge and Rules.

fti:
#41645 - just go in brain. click settings.
under the heading rigidity, move slider to less rigid.
under headings adjustment to situation, move slider to max.


#25877 great!

But (Jupiter's advice)... for god sake, learn how to use your moving average/s in the proper way... Tide, wave, ripples... WTF are they?

Someone missed this one.
#42554 - Also I never did say no SL on trades. I hope no one misreads or misunderstands. Only no place/use Stop Loss orders.

And now start again from post #1 with what I tried desperately to highlight ... and flow in the flow (of market and of fti lessons)
You will see new things. And the next time (with more experience) more new things...

To me, and what I've done with these posts, my conscience will answer.
I feel like this...

#15970 - Great auxesis (read the posts of this guy, here on TAF often they are something)

Many, many pips to all of you and pray for fti (he is OK... I'm sure!) (Ops! Had a thrill thinking to the fti return! and he reading this!)

It's my fault?
What I know of all this stuff? Who am I?
I don't have, not even, read the first 200p of this thread so I don't understand what is the proper meaning of at least the first 200p... ROFL
Yes this conversation started that way...

Bye wah! It's hard to be big for an old planet.
Hugs to Cindy and Cookie.

P.S.
So: do you see, in these examples I presented, contradictions with: ammos and whatever altitude, same position for all the day,
continuous averaging, hedging for fleas, micro counting of Fibo spiral % x number of troops and other staff?
Read the whole thread and solve your problems.
I see you, with your shining armour of rescue and options standing with fierce determination against the oncoming train.
Options or not, you must always be right!
Have you got, completely on the contrary, a big and honourable account? Well, then new horizons are waiting for you!
But you need even more knowledge.
  • #57,384
  • Edited 1:58am Jun 8, 2017 1:34am | Edited 1:58am
Quoting Jupiter
That's my point Exnav. Agree. (training & preplanned sequences!) Both: winning and confirmed... defeated and failed. We can try to exit from this kindergarten, now. The serious journey for the serious diligent fti student (my understanding) can start.........
I thinks peeps worry about whether it is reversal or retrace and for some reason many peeps try to call tops/bottoms all time. What I think I look at - coz I now just do it.....

if trend is long and now have PB short:

  1. what momentum do bear bars have - tails and strong bear candles- are they being whacked back by bulls
  2. are there signs of buying during PB - bull momentum
  3. is PB really deep > 50% - need to see strong bulls come back to go with trend
  4. are there any strong reversal patterns OR nice continue patterns (eg flags)
  5. only attack with strong bull momentum else play with scouts
  6. traps?
  7. ducks & buying/selling zones & reactions
  8. fundamental stuff going on - news
  9. RoK

Momentum is all (thanks to Phil for stressing this to me). Anyway a retrace can always end up being a reversal whatever happens

Alex

check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,385
  • Jun 8, 2017 1:48am Jun 8, 2017 1:48am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} if trend is long...
Now you BEGIN to fly...
Take care. Always controlled.
  • #57,386
  • Jun 8, 2017 1:50am Jun 8, 2017 1:50am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Exnav we can control 'fear' by learning to turn it into a healthy respect for something and this can only be done by understanding it. regards Phil. {image} posted bt Grow.. {image}
Hello Phil,

As usually, it's good to read from you. Nice stuff. What I'm trying to emphasize here is a power of trained reflex. Theory is fine, knowledge is OK and are very important ingredients.

Once you are in a real situation, only embedded reflexes could be of help. Cool, relaxed mind to make instant decisions and be able to push buttons timely and confidently.
Bad dog or snake is attacking you - instinctively your human body systems react/ respond (adrenaline, shock, freezing in total disability etc.). Or otherwise, e.g., euphoria, etc. is in charge of your body systems. Then, who or what is in command?

Speedy driving a sport car, maneuvering a jet, avoiding immediate collision at sea, and.... trading volatile markets being leveraged.

Best regards, Exnav

Inserted Video
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,387
  • Jun 8, 2017 2:02am Jun 8, 2017 2:02am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello Phil, As usually, it's good to read from you. Nice stuff. What I'm trying to emphasize here is a power of trained reflex. Theory is fine, knowledge is OK and are very important ingredients. Once you are in a real situation, only embedded reflexes could be of help. Cool, relaxed mind to make instant decisions and be able to push buttons timely and confidently. Bad dog or snake is attacking you - instinctively your human body systems react/ respond (adrenaline, shock, freezing in total disability etc.). Or otherwise, e.g., euphoria,...
Hi Exnav

i totally agree with you my friend, learning how and why we work is a very overlooked part of what we need to know as traders, once you 'understand' some of it you can start to take back some control over the situations we put ourselves in.

regads

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,388
  • Jun 8, 2017 2:06am Jun 8, 2017 2:06am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} Now you BEGIN to fly... Take care. Always controlled.
There are hundreds of messages in this post. Hundreds.
Bye

Inserted Video
  • #57,389
  • Jun 8, 2017 2:16am Jun 8, 2017 2:16am
Hi Jupiter

well done my friend you have highlighted many things that i believe get overlooked by a lot of people reading this thread.

regards

Phil.

you can only lead a horse to the water ....

but the journey is theirs at the end of the day...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EMoth.png Size: 153 KB
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,390
  • Jun 8, 2017 2:33am Jun 8, 2017 2:33am
I'm a bad dancer for now to much time reading the thread and not practising
Know I understand " Do or do not there is no try"

Thanks Jupiter for sharing
I'm a bad dancer
  • #57,391
  • Edited 5:29am Jun 8, 2017 3:54am | Edited 5:29am
Quoting Jupiter
Long life to fti. What about Cookie's charts... great charts Cookie. First and second... Good example. (I'm not so sure if I identified correctly your candle of entry at 1.34502 different platform different datafeed) So stimulating. OK... my point. Do I need options if I saw patterns like those? Do I/you/we know how to trade the different patterns??? (training & preplanned sequences!) Both: winning and confirmed... defeated and failed. I don't want to offend anyone and I don't want any fight. We are having a real trading conversation here. In the...
Hi Jupiter, what you say is perfectly right, each of us my find our own niche in the markets. What you said was what I was intending to convey in the post with the sine wave, that sometimes like you mention above, market break away from confirmation. And dancing it as to how it manifest is key.

As for options, my original intention was to use it as a means for leverage without the risk of ruin coming into the equation. Through gamma scalp. It's sort of a way for me to maximise my capital usage. Dance some leverage with insurance, but risk of ruin capped. Except need to profile for overhead through spreads. But risk kept within 5% of book.
  • #57,392
  • Jun 8, 2017 4:00am Jun 8, 2017 4:00am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Fear.... need manage self... I know this is hard. Stay calm relaxed and be nimble my friend. Alex
Yep, this is my scorpion I guess, sometimes I thought I banished it, but when I increase my size it comes back in.
  • #57,393
  • Jun 8, 2017 4:09am Jun 8, 2017 4:09am
Quoting Jupiter
We can try to exit from this kindergarten, now. The serious journey for the serious diligent fti student (my understanding) can start.
Hello Jupiter,

Squaring all and surfacing until after probably expected news driven events, I dared to put some your quoted words in Bold.
The "exit from kindergarten" has brought much of my attention. There are myriads of variations where from and to one might exit and/ or enter in cheese hunting attempts. It's partially a joke but, e.g., how about to enter a mad or poor house from a nursing home; from a theatre to a circus...

Once you have shown your weapon, be ready to use it or die... If you can't stand the heat, get out from the kitchen...

Hopefully, we understand the meaning of man with steel balls and a delicacy of honor.

Recklessness, cowardice, a hasty temper.... affecting a general.

Sometimes being semingly rude just to show myself "The Man in the Mirror". One our today cited friend understood well (by his posts) but was unable to apply his understanding when in battle.

So, which is a right exit from the kindergarten?

Best regards, Exnav

Inserted Video
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,394
  • Edited 5:02am Jun 8, 2017 4:18am | Edited 5:02am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello CookieMonsta, Thank you for sharing. I was observing the USD/CAD all my monitor hours yesterday, although, did not engage. I was dancing starting USD/JPY, then switched to EUR/ USD and finished with GBP/USD. It was good volatility swing day. My regular weakness that I am able to dance (focus on) with one pair. I never engage on two fronts at the same time. Maybe even one of the above four pairs would have been enough for the day. Regarding other commodities pairs, also remember AUD/USD, being not volatile during London session hours,...
There's still much I have to learn, to unrigidize myself.

I started from a pretty rigid mo, which although brought me some initial success, 2x in a month. It works on the basis of what you see which is basic trading, like pullback, 1x risk stoploss to 3x take profits, this rigidity was something i didn't like. But was not consistent, it didn't feel right, Fti's mo felt more right for me, and I figured rigidity is my problem, so I decided to unrigidize myself more, and I guess in the process, I realised that I had to find where my comfort zone is at, and keep trying to expand that comfort zone to be able to trade large sizes.

I guess the real learning process is not a 1 time thing, it maybe that having to go around in a few circles before understanding that balance is key. The finding of balance is the real learning curve. As the balance helps you keep your losses small, and let your profits ride, as well as not let winners run into losers, all the while in all kinds of terrain.
  • #57,395
  • Edited 7:12am Jun 8, 2017 6:09am | Edited 7:12am
Sorry guys.
For the second time, I see a possible misunderstanding.

Kindergarten was referred to my exercise of highlighting...
Was intended as an exhortation to overcome the previous ABC phase
to discuss something more "elevated" than a rescue in countertrend.

Oh, English! Lovely language... but is not my language.
In Italian I SEEM much more clever... (don't joke on this, too easy! OK, Cindy?)

#1723 - First example.
Easy from the hindsight?

Take the example chart... cover it... analyse bar by bar.
How to react if market is moving fast?
How to react if market is simply crawling and you hope, you hope, you hope... oh! I am underwater! (Boiling a frog theory!)
When and where you have to cut? And why? (considerations and rules out of the fti annotation #444/445)
You must turn or you must wait to see whether to turn or not?
I must turn flipping in Stop and Reverse? How? In which quantity?
Go in depth. Don't limit yourself just to scratch the surface as I did.
You can't imagine what Gann did studing and commenting a trade. Amazing.
I can go on for one hour...


#41503 - But the real challenge for a devoted student of fti methodology is the second example!
Why? Of course I can't comment an fti trade.
Study it! Movement of each candle and quality of fti loading.

We all need knowledge and rules.
We need to build our personal mental road map! Maybe you see other than me. Maybe better than me.
Use your eyes and brain... and feel the rhythm. I can't do more than this.
I loved too much the Moth image phil13 posted.

P.S.
Phil13 - Thanks... your appreciation was a relief.
  • #57,396
  • Edited 6:39am Jun 8, 2017 6:21am | Edited 6:39am
Quoting Jupiter
...... #1723 - First example. Easy from the hindsight? Take the example chart... cover it... analyse bar by bar. How to react if market is moving fast? How to react if market is simply crawling and you hope, you hope, you hope... oh! I am underwater! (Boiling a frog theory!) When and where you have to cut? And why? (considerations and rules out the fti annotation 444/445) You must turn or you must wait to see whether to turn or not? I must turn flipping in Stop and Reverse? How? In which quantity? I can go on for one hour? Do you think it is easy?...
... is it just me or do you seem angry - not sure why... sorry if I have misunderstood

if market moving fast ie running then FTI tells us in thread
if market is crawling - this is harder as I have seen it crawl and then reverse and then I have seen it crawl and then run with trend - go with real momentum - protect the big guns if you do not like it - don't put em in unless have momentum - be aware of where the orders may be and all the other stuff i.e. terrain...

I do love your refreshers though so thanks. I will study every candle just to review, I would have gone long though as it does not look bear impulsive short just on that chart alone and the bull run start made it clear if anyone had any lasting doubt that short was wrong - bull buying evident too in the down move before run began - bottoming action +rangey + trend

Thanks for great refreshers - very helpful -I sure appreciate it.
Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,397
  • Edited 7:35am Jun 8, 2017 7:17am | Edited 7:35am
No, dear Alex. Angry? No... why?
Maybe I was too quick and rapid in writing the text of the last post.
I had a trade opened. ROFL


Closed the trade... and made some corrections.
Hope now the impression is better!

To all the readers some Gann's words.
Intro to his booklet on Options... LOL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gann on Knowledge.JPG Size: 112 KB
  • #57,398
  • Jun 8, 2017 7:29am Jun 8, 2017 7:29am
Quoting Jupiter
No, dear Alex. Angry? No... why? Maybe I was too quick and rapid in writing the tex of the last postt. I had a trade opened. ROFL Closed the trade... and made some corrections. Hope now the impression is better! To all the readers some Gann's words. {image}
Hi Jupiter

lol.. is ok, we will put it down to your passionate Italian accent my friend.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,399
  • Jun 8, 2017 7:39am Jun 8, 2017 7:39am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Jupiter lol.. is ok, we will put it down to your passionate Italian accent my friend. regards Phil.
Hi Phil...
at last a conversation in which I'm deeply interested! LOL
So.. sound so ridiculous to your ears? Possible misunderstanding behind each corner?

You can't imagine how scary I am in writing here.
Let me make a rich and tasty laugh telling me something about.
Really! It would be great!
Want you?
  • #57,400
  • Jun 8, 2017 7:42am Jun 8, 2017 7:42am
Quoting Jupiter
No, dear Alex. Angry? No... why? ...... {image}
Sorry... glad you're ok.. and thanks again for all your reminders and comments. you're getting your points across perfectly well to me and I really do appreciate it.

No-one here needs to worry about language ..... fun that we are all different.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
20 traders viewing now