Technical Analysis Fallacy

Someone of you saw in my previous deleted post what I think about the above (choose your adjective) message...
Now I need morally to finish my job.


And this is the third and last example of what I tried (who am I ?) to highlight.
This is demanding... you need to dedicate to it some of your time.
Please. I'm giving you simply my humble understanding. And this wonderful thread is full of other examples and case histories.
Of course I'm cherry picking.
This is my view and could very well be wrong, partial, imperfect...etc.
This understanding is translated in my trading style. That is mine.
Am I one of the blinds examining the elephant? May well be.
You should get, I hope, why I wanted and searched my examination in front of the master teacher.
But now, I have to admit (why not?) that I am stronger in my convictions...

> #3283 - first post and first chart. What happened to Green_David.
> #3295 - fti's answer and first check-list (You decided to kill yourself by trading against the trend!!!)
> #3316 - A second check-list (@lilpip)
> #4019 - Third check-list (Feel the dance rhythm)

I personally copied each line on paper and worked on each word.
And then I assembled my final list.
I like particularly the passionate tone of voice in #3295.
In some passages fti is really touching. (How many times I heard this voice during my trading?)

quoting Alex - I guess have guidelines in my head (mostly fti's quotes)

Enjoy your reading, refreshing and study.

Your reminder posts are great for all. So thank you.

Maybe we are a bit mad - hearing voices?

PS I still hope he is ok.

Alex

We are mad only if we answer... and often I do that.

(He is OK I'm sure... I judged right. I feel very sad and sorry.)

After that post earlier relating to fti’s possible absence and a request for clarification on what was meant by it, I have been watching what has been going on and have drawn my own conclusion from what I have now seen as it is does not look like we will see a response to that post.

Facts…

After the post was made two people asked the poster for clarification.

So far no response.

The poster has since been online and changed their profile to ‘invisible’ a few hours ago.

Still no response.

My conclusion…

The poster has no facts to back up what they are saying and maybe too embarrassed to post a response hence changing their profile to ‘invisible’ now so no one can that they are here or have been online without responding to the post they made.

I am assuming nothing until I hear something from a reliable source, this is something our friend fti has told us to do in our trading as well…. Do not listen to rumours.

This is not the first time or the longest time without seeing posts or log in from our friend.

As I said thoughts and prayers with fti and his family.

Regards

Phil.

So there we have it, this is the cause for the accumulation of usdcad longs. Well no edge here, it's after the fact and the move is already over.

Guess that's why usdcad diverged from the usd weakness, beginning since Monday.

A couple for the Chief. I hope he's doing well!

Quoting fti

Disliked

... there within "IF", are great lessons about life and living...

Ignored

Quoting fti

Disliked

Desiderata Go placidly amid the noise & haste...

Ignored

Hello FF Veteran,

This early morning in my parts it was exactly my intention to recall these two items... A sharp coincidence...

Thank you, Cruiser and all the best to FTI!

Sincerely, Exnav

Hello CookieMonsta,

Thank you for sharing. I was observing the USD/CAD all my monitor hours yesterday, although, did not engage.
I was dancing starting USD/JPY, then switched to EUR/ USD and finished with GBP/USD. It was good volatility swing day. My regular weakness that I am able to dance (focus on) with one pair. I never engage on two fronts at the same time. Maybe even one of the above four pairs would have been enough for the day.

Regarding other commodities pairs, also remember AUD/USD, being not volatile during London session hours, a couple of years ago once, with all majors calm, flew down for some 120 pips and returned back in 30 - 40 minutes.

The pairs market behaviour analysis is manifesting itself by PA. One may understand as much as his Terrain Reading skills and fundamental factors awareness. We just should not overanalyse it and be either patient or reactive.

Now, remembering my strange (subconcious) mind (for next day after a very gainful streak), I should stay very prudent as well. Radio silence...

Best regards, Exnav

Long life to fti.

What about Cookie's charts... great charts Cookie. First and second... Good example.
(I'm not so sure if I identified correctly your candle of entry at 1.34502 different platform different datafeed)
So stimulating.
OK... my point.

Do I need options if I saw patterns like those?
Do I/you/we know how to trade the different patterns??? (training & preplanned sequences!) Both: winning and confirmed... defeated and failed.
I don't want to offend anyone and I don't want any fight. We are having a real trading conversation here. In the fti's absence.
Nothing to teach or judge... trader to trader... brother to brother... OK (I'm really tired!)

What have I to fear... if I know what I'm doing!... Suddenly spike? Earthquake? WWW III?
If you know how that pattern works you can protect you! And made a killing when sure!
Gann used the Bible reference, yeah: though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, i will fear no evil...

To me? That is a perfect Dow/Wyckoff highway... another telephone call from Market Makers.
That move was a perfect Breakway from a classical PATTERN CONFIRMED (large traders and HFT machines)
Pattern and retest. (M. Pring)
And a damned large pond of well aligned squatted ducks.
It took me years to learn to see it. It's the core of Wyckoff work... (and fti post to lilpip, did you get the meaning of that post? I fear, NO!)

No one of us trade the market. We all trade our beliefs system.
It's the Garbage in, garbage out! of that great man fti is. It's the phil13 signature.
Objectivity? (Read Livermore, Gann and Wyckoff)
Subjectivity and Perception?
In front of a chart...
In front of this thread...
Each one of us must find his personal niche in the market. And that is measured by our book's state.
There is more than one way to skin a cat.
I'm proposing the Power of Knowledge and Study.

(My humble and personal view and contribution... I am not, no need to seem, an arrogant primadonna, I already told ya. OK?)

Hello Jupiter,

Thank you so much for the reminder and your thoughts on it. I also like "The Man in the Mirror". One may understand theory but once it comes to real battle... There were two different men under one Trader nickname unfortunately (Egor...). That's why You and Mindset is paramount.

The best if it's internalised up to a reflex level. Instinctive reaction must be trained and trained and trained. Is everyone able to fly a jet? Would anyone fly a get without having a reflex training? Is everyone, professor or super analyst able to trade consistently and profitably? Do all people fit to all occupations? One may be good in Market Knowledge, but with no proper Mindset nor having sufficient Capital, e.g.

Best regards, Exnav

How true. Exnav... How true.

"It is the man, not the tool.
Say I give two people a pencil and paper; it does'nt mean they can write like Shakespeare.
Granted, they both have the same tools, but not the same skill.
Similarly, if I give two people two technical tools or disciplines, they are not going to come up with the same results.
That is why it takes time, practice, realistic expectations, and talking to other people who are experienced.
I've made a lot of expensive mistakes as an analyst and as a trader, but I have also learned some very valuable lessons.
It is just part of the learning curve with what we do as traders and analysts.
Again, my heart is in the wave principle.
I value it greatly, but it takes some understanding what it can and cannot do." - Jeffrey Kennedy

We have also all the first part of this thread on Mindset Formation...
Do you remember "Man of Determination"?
Google for the lyrics translation. (I do that for each song fti posts)

Before a temporary radio silence under periscope, and on a sensitive note.

Please accept my apologies, however:

Is Fx Spot market always polite? But should we always respect Fx Spot market?

Trader is supposed to have "steel balls" (according to FTI) and "a delicacy of honor" is one of "five dangerous faults which may affect a general" (by Sun Tzu, AoW, Variation in Tactics).

Enjoy a plentifull trading day!

Best regards, Exnav

Dax m1 live this very second.
How to clean the blackboard...
Quack.
Double quack.
Market's reality.
To me?
To me is a PATTERN!
Now I wait for the information... supernimble!

Et voil... here we fly!!!
Woah.
Now reaction...
Ready?

I swear. I can't do more.

Edit: 9.24... please don't ask me what I did and how. You have to find YOUR understanding and YOUR style.

Edit: 9.42... if you have time, follow the evolution of the move. Could be interesting. I have my bias. Ready to adapt.

Thanks FTI will be OK whatever. It is me who'll be sad.

Alex

Fear.... need manage self... I know this is hard. Stay calm relaxed and be nimble my friend.

Alex

Livermore was the first. Really.
He went to study psychology.
He understood that the key is to get "the inside of the HUMAN BEAST"...

How they act and react? What is inside their head? Why they did what they do? Reason why and objective.
Can imagine?
And he, he first... was an enormous bastard.
Create situation... enjoy the reaction.
Criminal mind.

nice... need to add flip

trend + momentum +orders

Alex

Hello Friends,

Fear what? Fear what exactly? If something happens, you are ready to react correspondingly. Better on trained instinct.

When a child I was normally playing with dogs. Then I was bitten by a weird dog. What my attitude towards the dogs should have formed? Now I have been friendly with my own German shepherd for 7 years. And we are protecting each other.

I am jogging through nearby forrest. Usually, dogs are walking around over there. When running, what could I expect from those dogs? How would I react? I am jogging every day almost... I am enjoing it.

Stay fearless, best regards, Exnav

That's my point Exnav. Agree.
(training & preplanned sequences!) Both: winning and confirmed... defeated and failed.

We can, now, try to exit from the first level of my conversation (the kindergarten level).
The serious journey for the serious diligent fti student (my understanding) can start.

Are you in trouble searching where to exit and where to turn?
It is because we all miss (yes, I do. Sometimes, talking to my scorpionS...) the basic Dow's definition of trend...
It is the exact symmetric opposite of "I don't catch not even one trend."
When a trend must be considered established (entrenched for fti) and when changed!
If I presented to you a sequence like that: trend hunting, trend stalking, trend catching and trend following, would you get why?
What does it mean "till the end of the trend?" (Which damned trend? What are embedded trends?)
Why fti says to Green_David when you were caught on the first rescue, did you refer to your hourly chart for trend bias? - #3297


Start from understanding this simple fti note... with the M.Pring .pdf on your screen.

#444 MickD and subsequent fti #445

And now begin the ascension Dow, Livermore, Gann, Schabacker, Wyckoff... the basic structure of the points of swing, basic Elliott... fractals.
The mythical "Hips and Lops"...
This is not a joke.
Jesse (yes he is a friend of mine...):
> It took me five years to learn to play the game intelligently enough to make big money when I was right.
There was much more to the game of stock speculation than to play for fluctuations of a few points.
> There is only one side. And is not the bull or the bear side. Is the RIGHT SIDE.

(Gann? 5 years ...Wyckoff? 10 years... Linda Raschke? 5/7 years)