The Raider Point of View

This is where i will place my bias on the pairs that I have interest or intention to trade for the week.
Disclaimer: Only for references basis.

To sum up my mistakes in this week and hope not to repeat it in the future:

Traded bigger lot size for oil (5 lots) at a closer interval. Should have limited my trade to 3 lots for oil as price has limited movement upward near the end of the week. Despite Trump pulling out from Paris Climate Agreement, this didn't trigger the upward move as I am anticipating (the withdrawal encourages usage of more fuel/oil without any restriction and possible anticipation of increase in demand of oil meanwhile middle east and russia trying to cut down on supply , imo this action of Trump should have put oil in positive , however, the market did not like the idea with technical H4 and D1 pointing downward . Most probably price could only go up in next 2 weeks.

The risk that will affect next week's trading:

1. GBP would expect volatility with general election on June 8.
2. US interest rate expected to rise in mid june, trades should be more carefully executed

Usdjpy @109.500 might be possible level to start a buy on UJ in anticipation of interest rate hike next week.

gbpjpy @ 141.00 around this area the downside is limited after it broke to touch 140.xx . Do note of potential risk of uk election in the coming day. Overall gbp would trade in a big range before the result.

Below attached with oil analysis with WTI(USOIL) with possible further downside despite yesterday spike.

Have exited my short.
Will slow down my trading this week with the current gain. Will look to concentrate on my current long on gj and uj position.

Well done for your great performance! What's your trading style?

Many might have taken surprised at the UK Vote, and MAY lost which brought GBP down, which interestingly , was a good move to drive down pounds to a key level for a better long on the pair.

Without change in my view, I have exited USDJPY(to reduce overall holdings) , and buying a little more on the GBPJPY with the existing positions(Price could break below if so, i would gladly exit)

On top of that, I have started to add Long position at 45 . xx in which i do expect oil could go further down into $44 region before any significant change could occur as its bigger trend is on the downside. (attached with chart).

Have exited my long on gj at loses and profit from short on USOIL.

Will slow down the trade for the coming week

The reason why I have been buying GBPJPY was price has fallen to a level of significant (138.700) especially was caused by a large drop driven by event(dropped to the level or break through that level and have a quick pull back above the level), this indicate possible last leg of drop and having such event to make it "technically" sounded trade analysis where the significant level become important. However, price was refused to get up despite supported by US rate hike which pushes UJ up (As UJ up, GJ will move in similar fashion), GJ only nudge up and come back down before it finally shot up during yesterday's rate decision and inflation ,which propel the upward movement to my inital entry of GJ(which i alrdy cut loss when it failed to sustain as I have an oversized position). Prior to the GBP data ystd, I have reinstated the long (but reduced position size)after taking consideration of the result would be good.

Meanwhile my USOIL(WTI), have successfully closed the long from the previous analysis which it has been resisted at the price of 46.50. Thereafter I have another analysis from there to initial a short for USOIL , and initial target at 43.80 , however , prices has become stabilise and slowed down since the bad EIA crude oil data. I have decided to close my short of oil and wait out for other significant change in movement. (Attached with previous analysis from 13 June , price of crude now is at $44.40)

Summary
I failed to take into account of the upcoming GBP event thus I had increase my holding of GJ initially from the start of the week which i ended up cutting losses on (-$400) . I am glad that I cut the position and to revalue the whole situation , before longing the GBPJPY again (together with GBPNZD as Crude oil has fallen badly, but GN has been falling at the same time due to the unknown fate of GBP).

In the coming week, i could improve in taking note of the weekly bi-weekly economic calendar which could help me to decide if i should reduce my position or other wise.


My POV:
To recap the week, we have hawkish comment and FED chairman has kept her promise to raise the rate, and we might look into having another one this year. This would be relatively interesting as many would continue to long US dollar or related. Current market condition could be a little tricky with fundamental telling us , increase rate, we should buy USD related, while on the other hand, technical might show in many non-usd major pairs that their upward moment has yet to die off. And other commodity might have reach a significant level but confirmation of reversal has yet to be shown.

The best thing to do is to trade small , or wait out till coast is clear.

For the current week, I have some bias on GBPJPY Short , as it is pretty correlated in the move of USDJPY, which USDJPY will be resisted in the higher timeframe from current level.
Also , at the same time, price on USOIL has moved relatively slowly, it could swing up and down before the actual data on wednesday to take direction of the trade. I have some bias on long at the moment but fully momentum should only be taken consideration on wednesday only.

"The fruits of your success will be in direct ratio to the honesty and sincerity of your own effort in keeping your own records, doing your own thinking, and reaching your own conclusions.”

Prices has been hovering below $45 for the past two days without any intention to break above, currently on lower timeframe, prices has some spike up during non US hours. August contract for crude oil 0.49% has taken into place to replace the july contract.

The coming Wednesday would be crude oil 0.49% inventory, which would add fuel to the movement of the current WTI. There is still some resistance so long as $45.20 not yet breach, however, once $45.20 has broken with strength, we could possibly be looking at $48.50 for USOIL 0.76% in the coming days/weeks.

Trade safe.

Closed the trade at price of $46.20 with downtrend in mind. Prices has moved up to the black trend line at 47.20 and we may expect to see some weakness creeping in.

Was away in the past two weeks and trade didn't go too well but overall still in positive by now.
Past two weeks has been a big swing with my GBPJPY short been caught in the wrong side and decided to close it at a loss.

Note to myself:
When trading in a bigger position, do not hold it for too long.