UK and US Retail Sales later

I bet you all know these two news coming out later.

Just in case you want to know previous reactions to these news, I have Historic Charts for your reference:

http://z10.invisionfree.com/Historic_Charts

Hope this helps you with your trades later.
Good Luck!

Is the RICS a very big mover??

RICS has been known to a mover, but only when the mkt has had its radar on the UK housing mkt - in the past its only been good for a max of around 10-15 pips move on an outcome well away from expectations, so its not a good bracket candidate if that's your cup of tea. The reason this small fry survey is of relevance is that it is the first proper indicator of what house prices are going to be for the month. Bear in mind the mkt seems less concerned on reading the tea leaves re the UK housing mkt these days, though US home sales are picking up in importance.

I think the UK retail sales will be better than expected. If this prediction comes true, I'll let you all know why I thought so. I won't be trading it, so please don't trade it based on this statement. This is not a recommendation...it's just my opinion.

Excellent charts BurgerKing! UK retail sales is a fairly clean number, in the sense that it doesn't come with a core release (ie ex-autos in the US), so there is less chance of whipsaw price action. The problem is that the consensus is often so wrong that it produces a price gap.

In terms of the medium term outlook the context is that the BoE have already delivered a surprise hike, producer prices have come in on the low side this month, but CPI was above expecs and is well above the 2% target. I'm personally a seller of pounds before this release, and at 1.90 and 1.92 (stop at 1.95) - based on relative fundamentals and how the mkt hates taking GBP above 1.90 (look at the charts for this).

FYI, the Reuters consensus is for +0.3% m/m vs -0.3% prior. 27 analysts surveyed with a forecast range of -0.1% to +0.5% (pretty wide reflecting how hard it is for the mkt get this number right).

Number in line with Reuters, but above FF, which I guess is the Bloomberg number. So, all in all, you could say it is a shade above the consensus. I wouldn't expect much more of a rally beyond this point (1.8815), bearing in mind GBP was turning lower pre the release. I'd have a stop-sell order at 1.8800 the figure, because if it does come back it could cut through this point like a knife through butter.....mmmmm, butter...time for brekky...the power of suggestion !

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LONDON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - British retail sales
rebounded in August, as expected, showing last month's surprise
interest rate rise did not deter shoppers.
The figures will reinforce expectations the Bank of England
will raise interest rates again before the end of the year.

KEY FIGURES FOR UK RETAIL SALES

AUG JUL FCAST
% MM 0.3 UNCH (-0.3 pvs) 0.3
% YY 4.3 4.3 (4.0 pvs) 4.1


KEY POINTS
- Predominantly food stores saw their biggest monthly fall
since Jan 2003.
- Sales growth in non-store retailing highest since Dec
2002.
- Deflator highest in August since Jan 2002, when it was
+0.1.
- The ONS said monthly retail sales growth was driven by
non-food stores, particularly household goods, and non-store
retailing. This offset a decline in food store sales.

The deflator being its highest in a long long time helps explain the GBP gains, but at the end of the day it is still negative at -0.1% y/y.

With Tesco and Asda selling a pair of jeans for £3 this is no great surprise!

Finally everything worked fine: Based on the spread 1 min before release, stop entry trigger was 4 pips above ask / below bid, stop entry limit +- 6, target limit +- 26

I thought so, because there was a rally in GBP/USD an hour before the news. Maybe some big guns expected it/had insider news about the release.... I know this isn't very likely....but meh.... I got +9 pips.

I'm glad that I got out with +9 pips. The market's clearly confused. It would've broken my 16 trade winning streak.

I got a "BV:SL" from oanda. I straddled 20 pips away from price with limit orders. How do you guys do it? Nutha big announcement on tonight so i'd like another strategy to have a chop at it. Help much appreciated.

the way I do it now.... get the number, and figure out if it was really good or not. wait for retracement in the 30 min candle. then go with the trend.

The market had fairly good defined range for about an hour or more before the release: 1.8800-1.8775. I did straddle and got filled at 1.8800. +10 pips - not so bad, but now looking at my "tactics" I wonder: wouldn't it be better to buy at 1.8775 and sell at 1.8800 and wait what happens. I would have put s/l for about 10 pips on both sides, but much more profit and much less adrenaline burning. How come I never thought about this before?

Last time NF Crashed. This time, its InterbankFX turn.

I have an order waiting at 1.8792 with exit of 1.8812.

Seconds after the news release, IBFX crashed. They did not resume for several minutes and to this writing, they are still down.

Now they are claiming that the order was removed/deleted by client. Ask your friends using IBFX, they also got the same reply from IBFX.

Great! Very convenient answers. I know I should have Hedged instead of Straddle.

Later I will HEDGE instead!

Ps. My NorthFinance trade went well.

I was able to manage my trade this way.


1) 2 lots closed out at ++10 pips (20 pips captured)
2) 1 lot closed out at ++5 pips (Total 25 pips captured)

Not a bad trade. I will always take positives over negatives.

Looking forward to a busy day.


DC

A Reuters poll as of Friday last week has the US retail consensus at:

Headline -0.1% m/m
Core (ie ex-autos) +0.3% m/m

This contrasts a little with the FF Calendar (headline -0.2% and 0.0% for ex-autos) which I'm guessing is the Bloomberg survey and is the more followed of the two in the mkts), but it serves to highlight the difficulty the mkt has in pinning these numbers down.

Unlike with the UK retail sales numbers, the USD price action can be more choppy as the mkt digests both the headline and ex-autos numbers together. Also, I think the prior months are more prone to revision than in the UK data.

At the end of the day, the most important number in this data is the core (ex-autos). If it comes in on the firm side of expectations, look for the mkt to price in greater risk of one more Fed rate hike before the year end (USD+ive).

retail sales says go long the dollar!!!

I'm short GBP/USD.

I lost on GBP/CHF, but I made it all back up with this one.