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Oil and Natural Gas

  • #2,801
  • Jun 5, 2017 1:25pm Jun 5, 2017 1:25pm
I think still has some time to go down, despite the big trouble in Persian Gulf. Cycles incomplete.
k

Edit: Also, seems that incoming posturing in ME could have been designed to increase the oil price. Big military contracts bills etc.
  • #2,802
  • Jun 5, 2017 2:27pm Jun 5, 2017 2:27pm
The WTI Crude Oil market initially fell during the session on Friday, testing the $47 level. However, we found enough support underneath to turn around and form a perfect hammer. This is an area where we have seen support in the past, so I suspect that a bounce is probably coming. However, I find it very difficult to believe that we will be a little break above the $50 level above, as the 200-day exponential moving average should offer more psychological resistance. Short-term, I like the idea of buying the bounce, but longer-term I believe that the sellers come back. Alternately, if we break down below the bottom of the candle for the session on Friday, then I believe the market drops to the $45 level underneath. We continue to see significant volatility due to the OPEC production cuts, and of course the lack of effectiveness.


Natural Gas
Natural gas markets fell during the Friday session, testing the $3 level. We are in an area that is massively supportive, so if we can break down below the bottom of the range for both Thursday and Friday, the market will fall apart. I believe the first target will be the $2.90 level, followed very quickly by the $2.75 level. The market does look as if it is rolling over, as we have not only filled the gap from April, but have broken down through it. I believe buying this market is going to be very difficult in the short term, and I suspect that it’s only a matter of time before the sellers exert their will. However, a break above the $3.08 level could offer a hope for buyers. Until then, expect quite a bit of negativity and look at rallies with extreme suspicion, as sellers will more than likely try to take advantage.
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  • #2,803
  • Jun 6, 2017 3:22pm Jun 6, 2017 3:22pm
long=>48.40====>tp=>49
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  • #2,804
  • Jun 6, 2017 3:45pm Jun 6, 2017 3:45pm
I see natural gas falling to punish Qatar and Russia.
  • #2,805
  • Jun 6, 2017 4:00pm Jun 6, 2017 4:00pm
Quoting nesta
long=>48.40====>tp=>49

ouch, I didn't see that coming either..

Are u still in the trade or is your SL triggered?
  • #2,806
  • Jun 6, 2017 5:24pm Jun 6, 2017 5:24pm
Quoting thejerre
{quote} ouch, I didn't see that coming either.. Are u still in the trade or is your SL triggered?
[email protected]===>49.10
SL=47.25
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  • #2,807
  • Jun 6, 2017 11:35pm Jun 6, 2017 11:35pm
Quoting nesta
{quote} [email protected]===>49.10 SL=47.25
Ok! How is your R:R? You are looking to make 67 points with a possible loss of 118 points?
  • #2,808
  • Jun 7, 2017 1:05am Jun 7, 2017 1:05am
Quoting thejerre
{quote} Ok! How is your R:R? You are looking to make 67 points with a possible loss of 118 points?
Long===>tp===>48.40
tp2==>49
Sl====>47.60
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  • #2,809
  • Jun 7, 2017 2:14am Jun 7, 2017 2:14am
Oil prices continued to struggle as well, with Brent crude trading down 0.12 percent to $50.06 per barrel and U.S. WTI futures down 0.15 percent to $48.12 per barrel. Oil prices were supported somewhat by the ongoing tension in the Middle East and the problems facing Qatar. On Tuesday U.S. President Donald Trump voiced his support for the cuts made with Qatar by other countries earlier this week. Turkey and Kuwait offered to help mediate a conflict resolution.
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  • #2,810
  • Jun 7, 2017 10:39am Jun 7, 2017 10:39am
Oil ready for longs after deep retracement
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Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #2,811
  • Jun 7, 2017 10:48am Jun 7, 2017 10:48am
Quoting 21vs7
BEAR: if we dont get 9+3 extention - we will be in bear mode or at least some kind of extra export measures would add to some bull activity. NO CUT is a strong bear mode imo what is exit strategy for OPEC. thats also huge issue for the ojl. no plan whatsoewa..if this plan is layed out td could be potentially supportive for ojl. otherwizze additional bear
very nice movement.

lets hope for a bull day to sell this shjit once more
  • #2,812
  • Edited 11:40am Jun 7, 2017 10:53am | Edited 11:40am
Quoting kprsa
I think still has some time to go down, despite the big trouble in Persian Gulf. Cycles incomplete. k Edit: Also, seems that incoming posturing in ME could have been designed to increase the oil price. Big military contracts bills etc.
"Unfinished" bull movements in oil cca 2.5 dollars above. I think it will now go up there to complete that unless a new min is made soon, then make a new minimum (the big bear movement is also incomplete imho) and then it could be free to go up.
k

Edit: Broken through. It will go some more down. The next potential minimum may be tomorrow morning or so. But that is then the end of the bear movement imho (and would go along with skyhok's projection).
  • #2,813
  • Jun 8, 2017 5:05am Jun 8, 2017 5:05am
sell at specified point
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  • #2,814
  • Jun 8, 2017 6:07am Jun 8, 2017 6:07am
Quoting kprsa
{quote}Broken through. It will go some more down. The next potential minimum may be tomorrow morning or so. But that is then the end of the bear movement imho (and would go along with skyhok's projection).
If a new minimum is made in the next hour or so, I will fade it and buy. I think the price will need to bounce off down from previous support that got broken dramatically during the news yesterday. Then the final end of downswing comes imho (about a dollar and a half below current price AFAICS).
k

Edit: happening faster than I thought...
  • #2,815
  • Jun 8, 2017 6:17am Jun 8, 2017 6:17am
  • #2,816
  • Jun 8, 2017 6:21am Jun 8, 2017 6:21am
What's the reason for the drop today?
  • #2,817
  • Jun 8, 2017 6:28am Jun 8, 2017 6:28am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} If a new minimum is made in the next hour or so, I will fade it and buy.
Bought, tight stop (no new min expected edit: before bounce from prev support).
k
  • #2,818
  • Jun 8, 2017 6:50am Jun 8, 2017 6:50am
Quoting Nectarios
What's the reason for the drop today?
Qatar ...allegedly
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,819
  • Jun 8, 2017 7:16am Jun 8, 2017 7:16am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Qatar ...allegedly

Lol - load of rubbish isn't it.

My oil stocks have given up nearly all of their gains, longer term that won't be a problem but it's frigging annoying.

US Shale is ripping up this market, it will never be the same again.
  • #2,820
  • Jun 8, 2017 7:16am Jun 8, 2017 7:16am
Thanks for your reply "Exodus",

I thought that was already priced in. As well as the US Crude Oil Inventories.
Any ideas for support resistance levels? $45 a barrel is too cheap for many producers.
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