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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #57,341
  • Jun 6, 2017 9:12am Jun 6, 2017 9:12am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} only in the darkest hour can you truely see what you are made of. as long as you know that, it has always been your choice that counts, that defines you, thats good enough.
ok.. you gonna delete that one>/?

some people are so scared to be themselves that they live through others

interesting.. well im warmed up. lets go





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  • #57,342
  • Jun 6, 2017 9:14am Jun 6, 2017 9:14am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} ok.. you gonna delete that one>/? some people are so scared to be themselves that they live through others https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TnmOq5NlMzQ
no, not this one, this stands for itself.

yea thats true, because i have made that same mistake. and perhaps in a way its a journey to learn that perhaps to be themselves sometimes it takes many tries? perhaps, many failures? but whose to judge them, in the end they are really accountable to no one as they are bearing their own consequences.
  • #57,343
  • Jun 6, 2017 9:15am Jun 6, 2017 9:15am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} no, not this one, this stands for itself. yea thats true, because i have made that same mistake. and perhaps in a way its a journey to learn that perhaps to be themselves sometimes it takes many tries?
i fell like we're getting somewhere =p

Invoice pending

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  • #57,344
  • Jun 6, 2017 9:17am Jun 6, 2017 9:17am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} i fell like we're getting somewhere =p Invoice pending https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyHNuVaZJ-k
nights, time to take a chill pill.
  • #57,345
  • Edited 10:27am Jun 6, 2017 10:16am | Edited 10:27am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} i doubt that very much https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2E8dQYnLv0A
Made some money from the other retailers all long at 12.750
And re-read some line by Richard Dennis...

"I dont think trading strategies are as vulnerable to not working if people know about them, as most traders believe.
If what you are doing is right, it will work even if people have a general idea about it.
I always say that you could publish trading rules in the newspaper and no one would follow them.
A key is consistency and discipline.
Richard Dennis"

I'm posting this 5 minute chart just to conclude the exercise on my understanding. (with all my respect to fti and this thread)

@Alex: Glad you like my examples. There are hundreds and hundreds in this pages.

Study, read fti posts, study, internalise... the same old story.
Really I did what I could to help. Good fortune.
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  • #57,346
  • Jun 6, 2017 10:21am Jun 6, 2017 10:21am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} Made some money from the other retailers all long at 12.750 And re-read some line by Richard Dennis... "I dont think trading strategies are as vulnerable to not working if people know about them, as most traders believe. If what you are doing is right, it will work even if people have a general idea about it. I always say that you could publish trading rules in the newspaper and no one would follow them. A key is consistency and discipline. Richard Dennis" I'm posting this chart just to conclude the exercise on my understanding. (wity all...
is good man thanks... That one? hard to call, not sure what TF you're on..I like your "new time window".. spot on.

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  • #57,347
  • Edited 10:57am Jun 6, 2017 10:46am | Edited 10:57am
@CookieMonsta
Tough day... no one deserves it. (Neither, not even Cindy, the great and dangerous showman!) No emoticon I saw they don't work!

I have a big, big ego... but I am a good old, old boy.
I repeat that again...
I'm not saying (I have never said) that there is only one way to be protifable in speculation.
If you have the money, the knowledge and the experience to go to play, with options, the gigantic battle of the giants...
do it... I have to underline what is the opinion expressed by fti... not for you (who am I?) but for the readers.

fti was hard... this is from my annotations:

#15054 - Get it right: THERE IS NO SECRET, ONLY MINDSET. ALL KNOWS, BUT DOING AND KNOWING IS 2 DIFFERENT THINGS.
Like I said before, I can give you the flight plans and a Hornet. But you'll probably splash on taxi. Goodnite.
(Zoran insists...Please, teach me how to fly or at least provide clear links to the instuctions ...
Can we hedge without using options? There are other methods right, even for us fleas?... no answers by fti! )
#15056 Deusomega - If I figure out how to dance properly I'll be plenty happy.

#46403 - None retail is robust enough to write (options). Don't try things that even tier3 banks are unable to do.
This my personal advise. Is very cap intensive own long sword insurance company. (fti is a GENIUS!)
  • #57,348
  • Jun 6, 2017 10:57am Jun 6, 2017 10:57am
Quoting Jupiter
! I have a big, big ego... but I am a good old, old boy..
life never taught you to drop it? you've never been humbled?

never seen it?

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  • #57,349
  • Jun 6, 2017 11:06am Jun 6, 2017 11:06am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} life never taught you to drop it? you've never been humbled? never seen it? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gu2pVPWGYMQ
Smiling from one side to the other of my mouth...
shaking my head...
but I won't joke with you. I didn't tell you the story of my life.

Cindy, the great and dangerous showman! No one on your thread to chat with? (And this is a fraternal laugh)
Stop it.
Good evening, good night, good morning as you like.

Time for my family.
  • #57,350
  • Jun 6, 2017 11:10am Jun 6, 2017 11:10am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} Smiling from side to the other of my mouth... shaking my head... but I won't joke with you. I didn't tell you the story of my life. Cindy, the great and dangerous showman! No one on your thread to chat with? (And this is a fraternal laugh) Stop it. Good evening, good night, good mornig as you like. Time for my family.
Ok big shot

time couldnt change you how could I?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Pr9SQri2884
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  • #57,351
  • Edited 12:13pm Jun 6, 2017 11:48am | Edited 12:13pm
Quoting Jupiter
@CookieMonsta Tough day... no one deserves it. (Neither, not even Cindy, the great and dangerous showman!) No emoticon I saw they don't work! I have a big, big ego... but I am a good old, old boy. I repeat that again... I'm not saying (I have never said) that there is only one way to be protifable in speculation. If you have the money, the knowledge and the experience to go to play, with options, the gigantic battle of the giants... do it... I have to underline what is the opinion expressed by fti... not for you (who am I?) but for the readers....
My problem is not with what you said, just be aware that, the market has near infinite variations, to impose like what i have put up, a sine curve would impose rigidity, which is what i am advising against, but if my message came across wrong that i am imposing the rigidity of bias of how market must move, that is wrong. And what is presented may be opposite of what is meant.

Well i have experimented, options seems viable using gamma scalp method, then deactivate it, it's a long options strategy incorporating the dance and mm, but the profits come from, difference between implied vols, premium you paid vs realised vol, dancing profit, if there is a sudden crash, you profit by default, otherwise you ants work your way up, but risk is always capped to premium paid.

This mo was in reply to Jacque as well, and fti asked if I understood the delta hedge technique, after i said i kept trying to prove the method wrong and find faults with it, implication was fti may have been ok with this method, he didn't say anything, so it's my guess, i could be wrong. The key was the dance. Delta hedge to me then was hedging by delta reads, but with the dance, you can do better than implied volatility, as it's supposed to be realised vol - implied vols = vol profits, but with the dance, the dancing skill can allow you to squeeze more than just realised vol - implied vols. But i guess it was my assumption that delta hedge = rigid delta reads to hedge, fti may already have been looking at it without the rigid assumption which i had, therefore my misunderstanding. Then going further, zero cost collar with the dance, you will always be limited risk limited profits, as you paid for insurance by writing, covered by spot. The rest is to dance an edge out if it.

There's avatrade for options, which accept minimum 0.1 lot for options so for me it's kind of viable as a retail platform, for spreads, no doubt it's going to be wider, but i guess i can live with it, essentially i can spec it to a small 5k account. Approx 10 to 12 pips for average spread, so if i did the same day gamma scalp, i just need to do better than 10 pips and then flatten it, if i can trade better than the premium paid, i can let it ride till expiry as a lottery ticket that's paid for by dancing, dual functions, after its done as insurance, it can function as no cost lottery ticket. Or if in the money after dancing and taking profits, can change to long straddle, either way win win.

So the basic core is still the dance, except things like crashes only give you more money. But otherwise, you ants work your way up. Initial risk is premium paid.

Once you can decorrelate book volatility from market volatiliy, there's alot of things you can do, essentially you stopped bleeding while market is tanking big, you are already doing better than most in dire times.
  • #57,352
  • Jun 6, 2017 1:14pm Jun 6, 2017 1:14pm
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} My problem is not with what you said, just be aware that, the market has near infinite variations...
#3541...she will outwit you and show you the meaning of VARIANCE.

Variation. Yes absolutely. But on the same repertoire, old as the hills used to say Livermore.
If you know how to see... and I need a book only to answer to this point... and to the curve ball issue.
On the rest...

1) Loop manoeuvres in real market (between impulse and correction) and synthetic options are two different terrain... OK?
On the first aspect I gave what I could... but there is much more!
I have always read the reference to dogfigthing as application of Sun Tzu principles: preplanned sequences (training) and extemporaneous response (flexibility Exnav reflexes)

On the second aspect I can not contribute... I appreciate (whom am I?) your effort of learning, as an effort in personal research...
but what I understood from fti is that for active traders with small account, commissions can eat up a sizeable portion of their profits in the long run. And that at end to be profitable you need always to be right.
You think you could do it? You see profits? You need to confront with fti.
I follow is advice and I didn't even read the Gann pages on the issue.

2) I'm stressing the mindset aspect for a trader on the battlefield...
You go there thinking that you can go wrong cause you have rescue and option to protect you... And you are dead!
You go there terrified by your possibility of losses... and you can't get the messagge that your losses are giving you.
The moment (on the chart...) when you decide to rescue... is the worst possible.
The acceleration produced by stops of losers and add-on of winners plus the breakout traders entering...
Readers must understand fti lesson.
Don't waste time trying to be profitable on the wrong side (options, rescue or not)

3) On the averaging thing... in general. And I'm going beyond the limit, too.
When I finished reading TAF thread for the first time... I must confess.
I had this impression that a Continuous Dynamic Averaging System was doable.
I did my research...
I met a University Professor in Rome who was building a global portfolio software like that!
That was 6 years ago.
He is still a Professor! Get my point?

In the meanwhile I reread this thread every single day! And I have now in my archive 2900 pages handwritten by Gann!
And no one is on astrology.
Now I have my mental road map (RIGID!) with my rules on analysis, bias, entry and FLEXIBILITY... (ROFL)
Have I spent my time in the right way? You see how I trade. Find yours!
I don't kill indiscriminately my scouts... I always protect them. And I use them in many different ways. (Variable)
My first rule came by fti.
You must never be caught on the wrong side of a term trend. Never!!!
So Rules. Rigid... To win emotions and Human Factor.
(to me the second part of #1590 is now Hypothetical Period... pure tactic! With strong limitation. I know how to realign with the Force!)
I am not interested in the cheese anymore... I wanna get out of the trap!

Now I have exaggerate and I'm really tired. We have no need to rewrite this thread in one day.
Bye. Cookie, have a rest. Tomorrow is another day.

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  • #57,353
  • Jun 6, 2017 6:14pm Jun 6, 2017 6:14pm
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} #3541...she will outwit you and show you the meaning of VARIANCE. Variation. Yes absolutely. But on the same repertoire, old as the hills used to say Livermore. If you know how to see... and I need a book only to answer to this point... and to the curve ball issue. On the rest... 1) Loop manoeuvres in real market (between impulse and correction) and synthetic options are two different terrain... OK? On the first aspect I gave what I could... but there is much more! I have always read the reference to dogfigthing as application of Sun Tzu...
On point 3 it's very true, still learning to grasp how to cut and flip properly.
  • #57,354
  • Edited 2:11am Jun 7, 2017 12:07am | Edited 2:11am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} implemented with 5 as first entry after strong down thrust, options to remove 2 and lessen load if price persist downwards. when price supported further, another 5 to convert to fibo is entered. feel and terrain can help fine tune implementation of rescue as well. {image} {image}
Hello CookieMonsta,

Very sound description. Your flow dance looks nice. Congratulations.
Regarding particularly USD/CAD, I trusted the pair as the most reliable until mid JAN this year (100% of engagements in profit through 17 - 18 months of live trading). Market proved that otherwise. Once you might face a decision taking whether to cut on your sort of pain threshold limit (MM safety) or flip. USD/ CAD shaking may last 2 to 3 days with unexpected long moves (150 - 200 pips) with no window to rescue. Ordinary retail trader might be unaware what was happening, e.g., with oil market (natural disaster affecting oil rigs, military conflicts in related regions, etc.)
Here, I must confess as well that flipping is not yet my strong skill. Then, just a calculation, you might be extremely or moderately profitable and making some 50 - 100% income, then (if unable to timely flip) surrender at 5 - 10% and keep making another 50 -100%. At the end of the year you would be at least and roughly 80% in profit. Surely, the above figures are generally relative, I believe, you see the point.

Let's follow FTI's:
Quote
if you apply prudent MM to capital ratios, with a healthy mindset to your trade habits, it should serve you well for taming the markets

Best regards, Exnav
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  • #57,355
  • Edited 1:06am Jun 7, 2017 12:23am | Edited 1:06am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} and extemporaneous response (flexibility Exnav reflexes) On the second aspect I can not contribute... I appreciate (whom am I?) your effort of learning, as an effort in personal research... but what I understood from fti is that for active traders with small account, commissions can eat up a sizeable portion of their profits in the long run. And that at end to be profitable you need always to be right. You think you could do it? You see profits? You need to confront with fti. I follow is advice and I didn't even read the Gann pages on the...
Hello Jupiter,

Firstly, your thoughts are highly appreciated.
I might be wrong but that yesterday's trade log example by CookieMonsta should overtly display a USD/CAD flow dancing. My Response Reflex would be similar, although I was dancing on USD/JPY (good volatility span). You may see either profit or commissions in numbers in Cookie's data. Certainly, it would not eat his account.

On the other hand, for let's say bigger PRO guys, some of them would deal directly with a reputable bank and there would not be spread at all. Commissions do exist. I am not touching those trading on D1 and higher time frames but guys of FTI's MO. They ARE confident and NOT greedy. They are making profit every daylight and DO restrict their appetite. On diet but healthy and successful.

Of course, everyone might have some stories to share... The one true would be of your own successful way.

Best regards, Exnav
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  • #57,356
  • Jun 7, 2017 12:48am Jun 7, 2017 12:48am
RIP mentor, you will always be remembered...
  • #57,357
  • Jun 7, 2017 1:39am Jun 7, 2017 1:39am
Quoting fti
{quote} if you remember the story i told earlier about traders who were bankrupted in the nikkei and 1 hour later became millionaires. What happened was that althought they were bankrupted by a exceeding 5000 tics sswing. But because the market recovered from the bump swing in1 hour, Their positions were not forced liquidated and as they bought much during the down swing , they made killing ,when market was restored. nikkei then had a daily average volatility of about 50 tics. the benefactor was Lexus the car. The next month every one was...
Should we be aware of...
Many thanks to FTI
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,358
  • Jun 7, 2017 2:00am Jun 7, 2017 2:00am
Quoting GoldenFinger
RIP mentor, you will always be remembered...
hi, what happen, please explain
  • #57,359
  • Edited 2:59am Jun 7, 2017 2:45am | Edited 2:59am
Quoting GoldenFinger
RIP mentor, you will always be remembered...
Hi GoldenFinger

do you know this for sure?? if so may i ask how?

does anyone else know anything regarding our friend's absence??

whatever is happening with our friend fti my thoughts and prayers are with him and his family.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,360
  • Edited 7:17am Jun 7, 2017 6:57am | Edited 7:17am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello CookieMonsta, Very sound description. Your flow dance looks nice. Congratulations. Regarding particularly USD/CAD, I trusted the pair as the most reliable until mid JAN this year (100% of engagements in profit through 17 - 18 months of live trading). Market proved that otherwise. Once you might face a decision taking whether to cut on your sort of pain threshold limit (MM safety) or flip. USD/ CAD shaking may last 2 to 3 days with unexpected long moves (150 - 200 pips) with no window to rescue. Ordinary retail trader might be unaware...
Hi exnav, what made me decide to attempt rescue was ro3k, specifically, audusd nzdusd and usdcad, these 3 are considered commodity currencies, so they have a fundamental relationship with each other on top of the USD relationship. However, since Monday, usdcad, audusd and nzdusd all 3 felt like they want to move upwards, that is, usdcad has latent strength inside it, also notice, when the rest pushed strongly, usdcad was the slowest to react of them all, all these implied that someone was willing to buy into it, but the rest of the market pressured it down, so some big guy may still be supporting this market, or at least that's my feel. The commodities currency felt out of sync, with audusd nzdusd in sync while usdcad kept trying to go upwards and not yielding to the pressure downwards, the leg pip range of audusd nzdusd vs usdcad showed as much, but it could always transit from a pullback to a full on counter impulse.

But I do have to agree with you, that at some point I would have to cut if trend manifest from looking like a pullback to a full on reversal, this I'm trying to learn to improve on my side. That particular scenario is the one I fear the most, and hence I'm working as you have adviced to refine this portion.
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