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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #5,001
  • Jun 1, 2017 8:06am Jun 1, 2017 8:06am
Just had a question about S/D and whether it works. I'll answer the PM in detail later.

Price definitely travels cleanly between supply and demand. I think most people get stuck in the chop in between and all the mass of zones that show up.

Sure, price can spike lows and highs to pick up liquidity and sometimes you can spot it and trade it. If that happens, price will then create an engulf and then a fresh zone.

Take a look at EU on H4 (red arrows) and also H1 and the S/D involvement with price movement (at least on this pair) should hopefully become clearer?
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  • #5,002
  • Jun 1, 2017 8:12am Jun 1, 2017 8:12am
Quoting jack411
{quote} nice trade, looks like you took a little heat on the retrace. When did you move to breakeven and what was your exit based on? It looks like there's 1 hour and 15 min demand that was about to be tested - what that the reasoning?
Moved to BE once we got to the initial target. Although chart was M15, entries was more based off H4 and H1 PA (see charts above)

Exit was based on price arriving at previous spike highs and round number. Would like another leg down for 2nd exit if possible but mindful of daily bull.

Watching PA around this area to see if we roll over with LTF PA or put in a base for a move up (on H4/H1)
  • #5,003
  • Jun 1, 2017 9:53am Jun 1, 2017 9:53am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Moved to BE once we got to the initial target. Although chart was M15, entries was more based off H4 and H1 PA (see charts above) Exit was based on price arriving at previous spike highs and round number. Would like another leg down for 2nd exit if possible but mindful of daily bull. Watching PA around this area to see if we roll over with LTF PA or put in a base for a move up (on H4/H1)

tried a couple shorts on the 15 min. The first, I jumped the gun. No engulf. The second was after the hammer but it looks like we may be heading back up... Any tips on these? I know the first one was premature and was lacking proper PA. What about the second?

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  • #5,004
  • Jun 1, 2017 9:57am Jun 1, 2017 9:57am
Quoting jack411
{quote} tried a couple shorts on the 15 min. The first, I jumped the gun. No engulf. The second was after the hammer but it looks like we may be heading back up... Any tips on these? I know the first one was premature and was lacking proper PA. What about the second? {image}
I saw this slightly different.. We had M30 demand established with PA. The spike looked like possible supply clearance.

It's always going to be tricky late session on a Thursday with NFP tomorrow.

you have to think EU will take out these highs but whether it is from here or not I have no idea and the sell can still work out.
  • #5,005
  • Jun 1, 2017 1:06pm Jun 1, 2017 1:06pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} I saw this slightly different.. We had M30 demand established with PA. The spike looked like possible supply clearance. It's always going to be tricky late session on a Thursday with NFP tomorrow. you have to think EU will take out these highs but whether it is from here or not I have no idea and the sell can still work out.
I don't see where the demand PA on the 30 min is present... We did drop a little, but I guess this is just one of those times that the market is bouncing around and its tough to get a read on? Have you taken any other trades today?

30 min and 15 min chart here:

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  • #5,006
  • Jun 1, 2017 1:23pm Jun 1, 2017 1:23pm
Quoting jack411
{quote} I don't see where the demand PA on the 30 min is present... We did drop a little, but I guess this is just one of those times that the market is bouncing around and its tough to get a read on? Have you taken any other trades today? 30 min and 15 min chart here: {image} {image}
Yeah it was an error on my side. I bought as price made the move up into M30 supply and then exited as it engulfed the other way... General misreading the situation. H4 provided all the evidence that selling was the better choice.

Slightly annoyed at letting that upper sell hit my break even. I could of put the stop behind the zone.

The current shorts are not in a great location at all at a crap time of day, will get shut down if we don't move away soon. Will come back with a fresh view tomorrow.
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  • #5,007
  • Edited 1:57pm Jun 1, 2017 1:34pm | Edited 1:57pm
This is what I had in mind when I saw the creation of earlier M30 demand.

We've have daily bull engulf and that H4 supper supply zone has already been tested which I was thinking will surely get taken out. This is how having bias can make poor decisions.

Looks like Trump is opening his mouth in 20 mins. Let's see if we get anything out of it.

One thing for sure, price action looks interesting here on H1.
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  • #5,008
  • Jun 1, 2017 5:52pm Jun 1, 2017 5:52pm
Something on the radar going into tomorrow's session.
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  • #5,009
  • Jun 2, 2017 7:40am Jun 2, 2017 7:40am
Didn't have the balls to trade it on the spread bet, not on NFP day.. The PA was pretty dirty. Funny thing was that H30 demand from yesterday actually held if the stop was behind the zone as per my plan....
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  • #5,010
  • Jun 2, 2017 2:42pm Jun 2, 2017 2:42pm
I guess this is all hindsight but red arrow was the final supply removal and that M30 demand base held solid (with H4 trend)

Something I'm thinking about for next week about taking far too many break evens and paper cuts when should be keeping stop below the fresh zone.
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  • #5,011
  • Jun 2, 2017 7:29pm Jun 2, 2017 7:29pm
Quoting C-12
I guess this is all hindsight but red arrow was the final supply removal and that M30 demand base held solid (with H4 trend) Something I'm thinking about for next week about taking far too many break evens and paper cuts when should be keeping stop below the fresh zone. {image}
Were those trades taken off that 30 minute chart? And are you talking about not moving stops to break even?
  • #5,012
  • Jun 2, 2017 8:33pm Jun 2, 2017 8:33pm
Quoting jack411
{quote} Were those trades taken off that 30 minute chart? And are you talking about not moving stops to break even?
Well I basically flipped flopped around the day before, took a few break evens and some small losses and then sat out of NFP (on live account)

Then i get on the demo, stuck to the original plan for the trade and it all worked out. The M30 buys were based as the H4 demand was forming with stop just below it.

Just some psychology issues going on.
  • #5,017
  • Jun 3, 2017 1:07pm Jun 3, 2017 1:07pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,018
  • Jun 3, 2017 3:18pm Jun 3, 2017 3:18pm
Quoting C-12
{image}

New demand area youre pointing out? What are your thoughts here? Out with it C!
  • #5,019
  • Jun 3, 2017 3:31pm Jun 3, 2017 3:31pm
Quoting jack411
{quote} New demand area youre pointing out? What are your thoughts here? Out with it C!
Mainly just interested how the candle base got retested the following day right to the pip (check the red arrow). Quite sneaky but I've seen this happen loads on the daily time frames.
  • #5,020
  • Edited 9:13pm Jun 4, 2017 9:03pm | Edited 9:13pm
AUDJPY 15MTF
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