i'm new in forex, any strategies?...thanks
Artamon,
I think you may have misunderstand my statement here, and i'm not taking it to offence. I have been trading for over 5 years now from Stocks, CFD's, to the futures markets, and have used a variety of strategies within in one.
Fibonacci I understand, although my dog barking in TV commercials i only sometimes understand... generally its because he like the dog food commersials that are playing and he wants me to buy it
haha!
Fibonacci is lines of support and resistence, but support and resistence lines are broken at times, and fibonacci lines are broken all the time, although there is a very high percentage that shows that one of them will hold, and will retrace to the prior low (on a daily chart this can be up over 400 points sometimes). What i'm testing now, and am looking for any help what so ever is to find some sort of strategy to combine with fibonacci that gives me a more precise indication on which fibonacci line to use in that trade (whether is being the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 76.4% - I don't use the 23.6% as it is broken too often) and also maybe something else to help me know when to hold past the prior low to run to the 138.2% or the 161.8% extensions.
I have looked at things such as numerous chart patterns which in some cases work well... but prediction is a key element here and you have to be quick as the move can move 100 points very quickly, I have tried lows of difference indicators such as MACD, RSI, MA's, EMA's, MA crossovers, etc. and still am not satisfied as they are all lagging too much for the fibonacci trading I found. I have tried fib clusters, but there is a large range of pips in question sometimes.
I am at the moment looking at using fibonancci Fans, fibonancci Arcs and Fibonannci timezones (to indicate high or low points) to enter at correct levels and times. I believe I have a high understanding of fibonancci, but applying something a trading strategy on an entry point of 4 lines of chance (but together very high chance) can be very effective with a combinations.
In the futures markets, something that worked quite well on the S&P 500 when combined with Fib retracements, I cannot get to work due to not having the indicator specs. (was a preset default for being within a group).
But i do agree with you with the Currency Analyst's point, that's exactly what i'm trying to achieve, a point when my analysis can tell me, I will get in at this fib line, but actually knowing which one, as appose to only taking the 61.8% line which I know some people do, as you are missing some great trades on the 38.2% and 50% and especially on the 76.4% (great pip rewards - Max reached in my testing on this one was 650pips in about a week, but very few trades with this one)
I currently am reading books, articles, going through my old trading books (I have built up a library now) even looking into all my e-book library at some trading systems, even going back to the basics of fall trend line of resistence can have a great implication on these.
If someone has done some research on this already I would be greatful for any knowledge they have gained on this already.
But the help, info and references I have been given so far has been great and helpful in my research.
Cheers,
Daveo....AKA...High As A Kite..... not stoned... Kiteboarding is the best sport in the world!
I think you may have misunderstand my statement here, and i'm not taking it to offence. I have been trading for over 5 years now from Stocks, CFD's, to the futures markets, and have used a variety of strategies within in one.
Fibonacci I understand, although my dog barking in TV commercials i only sometimes understand... generally its because he like the dog food commersials that are playing and he wants me to buy it
haha!Fibonacci is lines of support and resistence, but support and resistence lines are broken at times, and fibonacci lines are broken all the time, although there is a very high percentage that shows that one of them will hold, and will retrace to the prior low (on a daily chart this can be up over 400 points sometimes). What i'm testing now, and am looking for any help what so ever is to find some sort of strategy to combine with fibonacci that gives me a more precise indication on which fibonacci line to use in that trade (whether is being the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 76.4% - I don't use the 23.6% as it is broken too often) and also maybe something else to help me know when to hold past the prior low to run to the 138.2% or the 161.8% extensions.
I have looked at things such as numerous chart patterns which in some cases work well... but prediction is a key element here and you have to be quick as the move can move 100 points very quickly, I have tried lows of difference indicators such as MACD, RSI, MA's, EMA's, MA crossovers, etc. and still am not satisfied as they are all lagging too much for the fibonacci trading I found. I have tried fib clusters, but there is a large range of pips in question sometimes.
I am at the moment looking at using fibonancci Fans, fibonancci Arcs and Fibonannci timezones (to indicate high or low points) to enter at correct levels and times. I believe I have a high understanding of fibonancci, but applying something a trading strategy on an entry point of 4 lines of chance (but together very high chance) can be very effective with a combinations.
In the futures markets, something that worked quite well on the S&P 500 when combined with Fib retracements, I cannot get to work due to not having the indicator specs. (was a preset default for being within a group).
But i do agree with you with the Currency Analyst's point, that's exactly what i'm trying to achieve, a point when my analysis can tell me, I will get in at this fib line, but actually knowing which one, as appose to only taking the 61.8% line which I know some people do, as you are missing some great trades on the 38.2% and 50% and especially on the 76.4% (great pip rewards - Max reached in my testing on this one was 650pips in about a week, but very few trades with this one)
I currently am reading books, articles, going through my old trading books (I have built up a library now) even looking into all my e-book library at some trading systems, even going back to the basics of fall trend line of resistence can have a great implication on these.
If someone has done some research on this already I would be greatful for any knowledge they have gained on this already.
But the help, info and references I have been given so far has been great and helpful in my research.
Cheers,
Daveo....AKA...High As A Kite..... not stoned... Kiteboarding is the best sport in the world!
This is CurrencyAnalyst's point, I believe. You are trying to build a trading strategy based on something you do not fully understand! This is frought with danger and almost certain doom.
I'm not here to judge you. I'm still at demo stage myself. But, I have learnt one thing - you may want to build a strategy based on how many times your dog barks while commercials are on TV. But, if you don't understand why he's barking, you won't succeed.
Cheers,
Art...
Ride it like you stole it!
Life begins at 25 Knots!
- #46
- Sep 13, 2006 7:46pm Sep 13, 2006 7:46pm
- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: 'Try-hard' extraordinaire... | 2,151 Posts
Daveo....AKA...High As A Kite..... not stoned... Kiteboarding is the best sport in the world!
Seen one or two in my home area over the past couple of years, but man, when I was in the U.S.A a couple of years ago they were everywhere down the West Coast. Just above Malibu there was a whole "squadron" at one point. Looks like awesome fun.
On Fibs. There's no way of telling which fib is going to be "the one".
All you can do is draw all the relevent fibs (off of long term charts, then next step down, then next step down etc) and look for confluence. The denser areas where 2 or more fibs "agree" are more likely to be higher points of interest(even confluence with pivots and other major support/res). After that, all you can do is wait for confirming price action, like hammers, engulfing patterns, dojis (or is that dojae
) or in bar speak pin bars etc.Placing orders on fibs is gambling. You have to push the odds in your favour before taking action.
On a research note. Probably more along the lines of what you really are asking us for.
: ....I have noticed that, after a big move the day before, price will "at least" find it's way back to the 38.2 line. Especially if it's in confluence with a pivot. This is true at least a large percentage of the time. How often it is tradable, I'm not sure. I've had a handful of successful trades by utilising a 3rd or more hit of that corresponding daily high/low (no losers! ....yet). Will be working on the idea over time. Cheers,
Bundy
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
Bundy,
Haha... yeah I ride as much as i can... some people try spiritual exercises to calm them... but I find nuthin more spiritually calming then beening unhooked, with my kite looping, being upside down... speeding sideways ... and maybe over a sandbar... ... ha! Not a worry in the world at the point, all you do is concertrate on that landing!
But Bundy, What i'm trying to do is find some sort of strategy that may indicate a buy or a sell, and if this happens on a Fib line then I would take it (after testing it that is), for example, say you have a MA Crossover, and it happens at 61.8% Fib, then you would take it.
I'm testing, and I am finding some relations to some things, but its a matter of finding one that is going to work.
As you said, Fib lines are a gamble, but still if you have a high percent that it will be a positive trade if you only took the 61.8% trades, although they don't always happen. What i'm looking for is taking a trade, which incorporates the fib lines, and if the signal happens on a fib line take it, as I see this as a high level of support or resistence.
All trading could be seen as a gamble, as in there are probablilities based on historical data, and you place a trade knowing either two outcomes, you either make a profit or a loss... but i see it as gambling.
Thanks for the info though, I may be abel to use this observation.
Haha... yeah I ride as much as i can... some people try spiritual exercises to calm them... but I find nuthin more spiritually calming then beening unhooked, with my kite looping, being upside down... speeding sideways ... and maybe over a sandbar...
... ha! Not a worry in the world at the point, all you do is concertrate on that landing!But Bundy, What i'm trying to do is find some sort of strategy that may indicate a buy or a sell, and if this happens on a Fib line then I would take it (after testing it that is), for example, say you have a MA Crossover, and it happens at 61.8% Fib, then you would take it.
I'm testing, and I am finding some relations to some things, but its a matter of finding one that is going to work.
As you said, Fib lines are a gamble, but still if you have a high percent that it will be a positive trade if you only took the 61.8% trades, although they don't always happen. What i'm looking for is taking a trade, which incorporates the fib lines, and if the signal happens on a fib line take it, as I see this as a high level of support or resistence.
All trading could be seen as a gamble, as in there are probablilities based on historical data, and you place a trade knowing either two outcomes, you either make a profit or a loss... but i see it as gambling.
Thanks for the info though, I may be abel to use this observation.
Ride it like you stole it!
Life begins at 25 Knots!
First lets clarify that Fibonacci has nothing to do with Astrology nor Elliott Waves. It is merely the scientific Phenomena of number correlation to 1.618/.618 It is natures contiousness to design by pattern. It works in the two dimensionall market because the charts are merely rythmic design patterns of harmonic motion.
No comment.
I must say, though, that nobody uses them like we do - apart from several members lurking quietly around this forum, and a few others......
Here's what the Absolute Fibonacci is showing about the GBP at the moment. Learn to interpret this lot, and you have a powerful tool.
The framework is there; we just have to work on our frame of mind.
