Looks like the wave completed and we hit our target. The trailing stop took us only a few more pips, but hey, pips are pips.
- #23
- Sep 13, 2006 3:58am Sep 13, 2006 3:58am
I'm, like, 99% (read: "> 50%") certain that rather than a 5-3-5 correction to the July - Sep move, were in something like a 3-3-5. The first three waves of A are complete. Moreover, it looks like the first two waves of B are up and we are moving up on the first subwave impulse of B's third wave. By the end of B I think NZD-USD should be in the 0.6480-0.6500 area again.
So whats the play?
I'm gonna wait for the third subwave of B's third wave, and ride it hard. So the current move should end around 0.6450-60ish and retrace. I'll get in at 0.5 and 0.618 retracements on the second wave in preparation for the third wave to some around.
God this is fun.
So whats the play?
I'm gonna wait for the third subwave of B's third wave, and ride it hard. So the current move should end around 0.6450-60ish and retrace. I'll get in at 0.5 and 0.618 retracements on the second wave in preparation for the third wave to some around.
God this is fun.
- #24
- Sep 13, 2006 4:11am Sep 13, 2006 4:11am
- | Joined Sep 2005 | Status: Full Time Trader | 1,780 Posts
LOL!!!Your new avatar is hilarious! A perfect picture of how the market treats us....if we let it.
Keep up your great journal and self analysis. I don't see too many traders who have the courage to be this honest with themselves. Hang in there Rincewind and you'll do all right!
Dial
omg i cann't stop laughing!!!!!!!!!!!
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- #26
- Sep 13, 2006 11:44am Sep 13, 2006 11:44am
That first wave was a doozy!!!! It went all the way up to 0.6480. Its retraced by 0.3, so I've gone long with two lots at the moment. I expect it to drop to 0.5 retracement. Given the extent of 1st wave I'm not sure a 0.6 retracement is likely. Target is moved to 0.6500.
Just to be honest...I got burned badly here. Outside of my system I saw at around 0.6450 a dip, and thought "here comes the two down leg...lets play it and make a little more money." So I went short, pretty heavy and WITHOUT A STOP LOSS, got distracted, came back and whoops....margin call.
Yea....kicking myself there. Broke so many rules
(A) no stop
(B) traded what I believed...not what I saw.
(C) repeat A and B indefinitly.
You know...efex and others have given me great advice....and I've heard them....the problem is that I still haven't matured to the point of implementation yet.
Just to be honest...I got burned badly here. Outside of my system I saw at around 0.6450 a dip, and thought "here comes the two down leg...lets play it and make a little more money." So I went short, pretty heavy and WITHOUT A STOP LOSS, got distracted, came back and whoops....margin call.
Yea....kicking myself there. Broke so many rules
(A) no stop
(B) traded what I believed...not what I saw.
(C) repeat A and B indefinitly.
You know...efex and others have given me great advice....and I've heard them....the problem is that I still haven't matured to the point of implementation yet.
In the past I've seriously considered taping up the fingers on my right hand to prevend rampant mouse clicking. Though still possible to click click click the mouse it does give one a slight breathing space to consider what one is doing
Great journal.
Great journal.
That first wave was a doozy!!!! It went all the way up to 0.6480. Its retraced by 0.3, so I've gone long with two lots at the moment. I expect it to drop to 0.5 retracement. Given the extent of 1st wave I'm not sure a 0.6 retracement is likely. Target is moved to 0.6500.
Just to be honest...I got burned badly here. Outside of my system I saw at around 0.6450 a dip, and thought "here comes the two down leg...lets play it and make a little more money." So I went short, pretty heavy and WITHOUT A STOP LOSS, got distracted, came back and whoops....margin call.
Yea....kicking myself there. Broke so many rules
(A) no stop
(B) traded what I believed...not what I saw.
(C) repeat A and B indefinitly.
You know...efex and others have given me great advice....and I've heard them....the problem is that I still haven't matured to the point of implementation yet.
I understand what was in your mind at that time
Keep trying to control your emotions and don't let those two little daemons , the greed and the fear, take over your head
We all as human beings are in constant fight against them and there is where having a concrete objective can help you.
Will keep reading with interest your advance.
Bye
- #30
- Sep 13, 2006 7:35pm Sep 13, 2006 7:35pm
The third wave ended fairly quickly after best buddy Bollard gave me my little present
. That means we're starting a fourth wave down. I'm also pretty confident about this because, remember, where in a long corrective cycle....so we shouldn't top the previous impulse high of 0.6580 (Sep3 or 4...don't remember). So I'm in short with a couple of lots at 0.6545, hard stop at 0.6580, targeting 0.6500. As Kiwi starts to fall I'll add a couple of pips here and there and move my stop to break even. Partial profit at 0.6510 and let the rest ride with trailing stop. Hard exit at 0.6480 since the fourth wave shouldn't overlap previous 1 peak of 0.6475.
I have no idea how far down its going really, maybe as short as 0.6510. Moreover, the following 5 wave is probably not gonna top this three wave...we might even get a diagonal triangle. But once this is done, C wave should kick in...and this one should be a five subwave impulse down...that will be fun.
. That means we're starting a fourth wave down. I'm also pretty confident about this because, remember, where in a long corrective cycle....so we shouldn't top the previous impulse high of 0.6580 (Sep3 or 4...don't remember). So I'm in short with a couple of lots at 0.6545, hard stop at 0.6580, targeting 0.6500. As Kiwi starts to fall I'll add a couple of pips here and there and move my stop to break even. Partial profit at 0.6510 and let the rest ride with trailing stop. Hard exit at 0.6480 since the fourth wave shouldn't overlap previous 1 peak of 0.6475.I have no idea how far down its going really, maybe as short as 0.6510. Moreover, the following 5 wave is probably not gonna top this three wave...we might even get a diagonal triangle. But once this is done, C wave should kick in...and this one should be a five subwave impulse down...that will be fun.
