RBNZ Interest Rate Statement

Any one plan on trading this one, any thoughts/comments?

wow that was a helluva spike!

here is the statement...

Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said: "The New Zealand economy continues to show resilience. As reported in earlier statements, we have seen clear signs of easing activity and a rebalancing of demand from the domestic to the external sector since late last year. However, economic activity appears to have been stronger than expected through the first half of 2006, with the expansion of employment particularly surprising. Net exports and Government spending have contributed to the buoyancy in activity, while the easing in household consumption has been more moderate than projected. Similarly, while the housing market has slowed, it continues to exhibit momentum. We expect further dampening effects on demand from high oil prices and higher effective mortgage rates over the period ahead. But, even allowing for these effects, we see more inflation pressure than in earlier reviews.

"With overall resource pressures easing more gradually than forecast, annual inflation is not expected to fall below 3 percent until late 2007. Oil price increases and the depreciation of the exchange rate earlier in the year have pushed headline annual inflation to 4 percent in the June quarter. Inflation expectations have continued to drift upwards, influenced by the rising headline inflation numbers. While second-round flow-on effects have so far been limited, this remains a risk given the persistence of demand and labour market pressures. We assume that wages and prices are not unduly influenced by the short-term peak in headline inflation.

"Given the continued strength of medium-term inflation pressures, the outlook for monetary policy has become more finely balanced. With inflation now taking longer to move comfortably within the target band of the Policy Targets Agreement (PTA), there is little leeway to withstand further surprises to medium-term inflation pressures. In these circumstances, we are less confident that no further policy tightening will be required in this cycle. In this regard, we will want to be clearer about the economic situation and outlook. However, there is clearly no prospect of an OCR cut for some considerable time."

Jump 59 pips. +24 pips for myself Happy

Hello,

Merlin, what message made this spike eventhough the interest rate remained the same?

Ok, am I going crazy. I definately do not want to make this into a broker bashing. I had a straddle set up at Forex.com 12 pips out. As soon as the annoucement came out the order vanishes from my screen. I missed the move. I called them, there explanation-their orders rollover at 5pm EST. I need to place a GTC order versus a EOD. Is this right?

Yes, that sounds right. EOD orders cancel at the end of the day. GTC is good till canceled, by you.

I'm facinated by the fact that the interest rate remained the same yet the NZD stregthened as it did. Thankfully it seems to be continuing on its original move and continually adding to my pips.
See what happens when you patiently wait it out instead of duck out after a quick move!
Now, if only everybody would would be patient instead of scalping there would be far fewer whipsaws!!

Ok I will try to explain what happened to me on this trade. First I decided to go long the NZD/USD before the Interest Rate Statement thinking that the market already expected there to be no hike and thus anyone that was short the NZD would be taking their profits and getting out before the report came out. Then if the speech was good it could only go up. (Feel free to correct me if I was wrong in thinking this) So I went long at .6467. Set a stop and a T/P of .6493. BUT guess what my broker does not let you trade at 5:00 est, because I think this is when they are doing their roll overs. SO I cant do anything when I see the numbers going up and up and up (I clicked at least 10 times tryn to close my trade). After about 5 min and after I relog into my account it lets me close the trade at .6518. BUT they fill my limit order (T/P) at .6493 which now puts me short on the NZD/USD because I closed the trade my self at .6518.
SO finally I close the short position at .6520. If you do the math that 51 pips on the first trade and -27 pips on the 2nd trade for a total gain of about +24 pips. I'm happy I made money, BUT I will think twice about trying to trade when they are doing roll over again, beause the platform will not let you!

Sorry for the long story....How did you guys do???


PS I was using Forex.com for this trade

Merlin

"In these circumstances, we are less confident that no further policy tightening will be required in this cycle."

Is this what caused the surprise reaction you think??

beats me, actually sounded kinda bearish on my read.

but whatever happened, it aint stoppin!

ok, i think i found her! this may be the culprit!

actually, the whole thing sounds bullish now that i read it again! LOL

LOL the wording on these speeches are crazy. Did you trade this report?

I had a swing trade on; long NZDUSD. Lucky huh? I woulda put a stop in but you guys reckoned it was a little yellow factory and not a little orange or red factory. :

I actual made 25 pips on that move mime happy. Patience waiting for my signal come paid off. (I hate patience but realize it is all important) I also love to break rule not good when trading. I may have to change some of my values. Like have more patience and obey rules. Expect for when driving. No patience and no obeying speed limits. If any Police out there pretend you did not see this post LOL

:surprised DAMMIT!
at work and logged in 2 minutes too late.

(damn brokers).

happy trading

huh? that was an orange factory!

My mistake dude, sorry. I'll put my glasses on next time. Shoulda realised interest rates would be an orange anyways. Great job on the site and calendar anyways!

Is anyone trading the crosses ?

NZDCAD + 100 pips
NZDJPY + 70pips
AUDNZD -120 pips

nice pip gainers.

actually, in hindsight that should have been a red factory, but the statement doesnt usually have that much impact.