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Ronan Manly
Posted on 17 May 2017 by Ronan Manly


An update on SGE Vault Withdrawals and SGE Price Premiums

In 2016, withdrawals of gold from the Shanghai Gold Exchange totalled 1970 tonnes, the 4th highest annual total on record. This was 24% less than SGE gold withdrawals recorded in 2015, which reached a cumulative 2596 tonnes (See Koos Jansens 6 January 2017 blog at BullionStar How The West Has Been Selling Gold Into A Black Hole for more details of the 2016 withdrawals).
SGE gold withdrawals are an important metric in the physical gold market because SGE gold withdrawals are a suitable proxy for approximating Chinese wholesale gold demand. This proxy functions well because Chinas domestic gold mining production, Chinese gold imports, and most Chinese gold scrap are all sold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. As a reminder, gold withdrawals from the SGE means actual physical gold bars withdrawn from the SGEs network of 62 approved precious metals vaults in 35 cities across China. (See The Mechanics Of The Chinese Domestic Gold Market for a discussion of why this proxy works).


2017 SGE Gold Withdrawals
Year-to-date, which now includes the first four months of 2017, SGE gold withdrawals have reached 727 tonnes, which annualized equals 2181 tonnes, and would make 2017 the 3rd highest SGE vault withdrawal year on record, and only slightly behind the 2197 tonnes of registered withdrawals from the Exchanges vaults in 2013. And since SGE gold withdrawals are a suitable proxy for wholesale Chinese gold demand, it would point to 2017 shaping up to be one of the strongest years ever for physical gold demand in the Chinese gold market.
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SGE Gold Withdrawals 2008 2017. The 2017 figure reflects January April inclusive. Source:www.GoldChartsRUS.com
With two-thirds of the year still to play out, annualised estimates of year-to-date gold withdrawal figures will always be approximations and will change when each successive months figure is added.

For example, January 2017 gold withdrawals of 184.4 tonnes suggested an annualised withdrawal figure of 2213 tonnes. Februarys withdrawals as per published SGE data came in at 179.2 tonnes, implying an annualised figure of 2182 tonnes. As monthly withdrawals increased in March to 192.2 tonnes, this edged the annual estimate up to 2224 tonnes. But coincidentally, Aprils SGE gold withdrawal figure brought the annual estimate back to ~2182 tonnes. This was so because combined gold withdrawals for January and February exactly equaled combined withdrawals for March and April, in both cases 363 tonnes over the two consecutive two month periods.
January + February = 184+179 = 363 tonnes

March + April = 192+171 = 363 tonnes
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There is also a data discrepancy worth pointing out with the Shanghai Gold Exchanges gold withdrawal figures for 2017. This discrepancy relates to the fact that the monthly withdrawal numbers for the 4 month period from January to April do not add up to the cumulative gold withdrawal figure for 2017 as published elsewhere on the Exchanges website.
SGE gold withdrawals for January to April inclusive summate to exactly 727.073 tonnes.

However, in the latest (April) edition of the SGEs monthly Data Highlights report, which is published in English, it states that cumulative withdrawal volume inclusive of April totalled 771.973 tonnes, which is 44.9 tonnes higher than the figure implied by the summation of the 4 individual months figures.
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SGE Gold Withdrawals April 2017: Source: SGE Data Highlights report
This data discrepancy has been present in the Data Highlights report each month since February. For example, at the end of February 2017, the combined monthly withdrawals of January (184.412 tonnes) and February (179.237 tonnes) were 363.649 tonnes, but the Data Highlights report for February stated that the cumulative withdrawal total for those two months was 378.649 tonnes. This is exactly 15 tonnes more than the two months combined would suggest. So, it seems that there is a data issue somewhere in SGE record keeping, especially given the rounded figure nature of the discrepancy number.
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SGE Gold Withdrawals February 2017: Source: SGE Data Highlights report
The SGE March report also had an error when the monthly totals for January March pointed to gold withdrawals of 555.899 tonnes , while the March Data Highlights listed cumulative gold withdrawals of 524.899 tonnes, in this case exactly 31 tonnes less than the summation of the 3 monthly figures would suggest. Again, the rounded figure nature of the discrepancy number suggests a data issue somewhere in the SGE reporting system.
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SGE Gold Withdrawals March 2017: Source: SGE Data Highlights report
Until the SGE clarifies the discrepancy, its best to go with the summation of the individual months withdrawal figures while awaiting feedback from the Exchange.
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SGE Gold Withdrawals Cumulative Withdrawals Months 1 4, 2008 2017. Source:www.GoldChartsRUs.com
The above chart plots cumulative gold withdrawals for the 4 months to end of April compared to similar periods in previous years, and again shows that 2017 looks set to be one of the strongest years for Chinese gold demand on record. The cumulative gold withdrawals of 727 tonnes for the January to April timeframe are the 2nd highest Month 1-4′ cumulative figure on record, with only 2015 higher, when the similar figure came in at 821 tonnes.

SGE Premiums
Beginning last November and persisting into December 2016, the SGE gold price and the International gold price (as expressed in Yuan) began to diverge with the SGE gold price trading significantly higher. This created a noticeable and rapidly rising premium in the SGE gold price, and at one point in mid December this premium was $40 per ounce higher than, or over 3% above the international gold price.
This phenomenon was at the time attributed to the introduction by the Chinese authorities of more stringent restrictions on gold imports in an effort to reduce currency outflows. For example, Reuters, citing trader sources, wrote on 9 December 2016 that China was curbing gold imports in [a] bid to limit yuan outflow.

There were also rumours in the gold market at that time that a number of banks that had been authorised to import gold into China had lost their import licences (or that their licenses had not been renewed), and that the Peoples Bank of China was also becoming stricter on the quotas of gold that it would allow banks to import in a given consignment. However, when BullionStar asked the SGE about this in December, the SGE did not reply.


Only 13 banks are authorised to import gold into China, 10 of which are local Chinese banks, and the other 3 of which are the foreign banks HSBC, ANZ and Standard Chartered.

In theory, an expansion in the SGE price premium could have been caused by a combination of limited supply or higher demand, or both. The below chart for 2016 (lower panel) illustrates the emergence of this premium in early November, with the premium rising rapidly from less than 0.5% at that time to nearly 3.5% at one point in December, but still ending the year in the 2% range. The upper panel of the chart show that same phenomenon only in terms of the relative prices of the SGE and International gold prices.
In contrast, for the 10 months of 2016 that preceded November, the premium of the SGE price to the International price was persistently very low and static from January to October 2016.
https://static.bullionstar.com/blogs...16-651x497.png


Percentage Premiums: SGE Gold Price vs International Gold Price, 2016: Source:www.GoldChartsRUs.com
Fast forwarding to 2017, the most interestingly observation of the SGE premium since the November-December timeframe is that although the premium dropped sharply in January from the 2% range down to the 0.4% range by January month-end, it resumed a uptrend in February before spiking up noticeably again during March to levels approaching those seen in November and December.
In the case of March, it appears that premiums rose again for the very same reason that was attributed to the sharp rise in late 2016, i.e. the re-emergence of supply constraints brought on by more stringent gold import restrictions. According to Reuters in an article on the subject dated 17 March in which it quoted a Hong Kong based trader saying that:
imports are happening, but with some restrictions. The government has been doing this since November to control the capital outflows. Now, it is becoming a bit aggressive with stringent reviews


The quotas are reviewed regularly and extended on a case by case basis.
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Percentage Premiums: SGE Gold Price vs International Gold Price, 2017 Year-to-Date: Source:www.GoldChartsRUs.com
Although premiums shrank after mid-March and returned to the 1% level, they oscillated in the 1% to 0.5% range until mid-April and since then have resumed a steady rise to the 1% level, which is a very different chart to the one that persisted for most of 2016.
It therefore seems that the impact of tighter import restrictions that appeared in November and December of last year and which the rising premiums reflected was not a transitory phenomenon but instead has become a persistent feature of the Chinese gold market.
And what does this say about the Chinese authorities plans to liberalise the Chinese gold market since more restrictive import quotas and rules appear to be doing the opposite by undermining some of the liberalisation steps that had already been underway?


Ronan Manly
E-mail Ronan Manly on: [email protected]

Good day

Hope everyone is doing well.

Here is your updated open and closed positions.

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Obama Administration Intervened in Canadian, British, and French elections
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Blog/Politics
Posted May 26, 2017 by Martin Armstrong
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There is a very serious hypocrisy over this whole issue of Russia trying to influence the 2016 election when the Obama Administration directly intervened in Canada, Britain, and France and is expected to do so again in Britain and Germany. The New York Times, Washington Post, and just about every other mainstream media, are biased and are NOT REPORTING THE TRUTH. They act as if this is something unusual and sinister yet Obama has continued in this very posture even after leaving office with respect to the French elections.

Obama also intervened to overthrow Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and failed as he did in BREXIT.

The United States routinely interferes in foreign elections. So what is the big deal with Russia? Mainstream Media is not telling the truth that this is standard operational procedure. The United States has far too over stages coups to overthrow leaders they dislike. The propaganda about Iran and weapons of mass destruction is but a recent example. The Vietnam War was also a hoax with President Johnson is famous for saying in 1965: “For all I know, our Navy was shooting at whales out there.” There never was any attack to start that war and Johnson made a very deceitful speech of August 4th, 1964, while New York Times editorial writers cheered and proclaimed that Johnson “went to the American people last night with the somber facts.” The recorded American soldier deaths for the Vietnam War was 58,220 U.S. military fatal casualties.


The New York Times has deliberately misled everyone with its latest story once again: “Top Russian Officials Discussed How to Influence Trump Aides Last Summer”. They wrote that two of Trump’s people “had indirect ties to Russian officials” and after all the ifs, possibilities, and perhaps, they conclude “It is unclear, however, whether Russian officials actually tried to directly influence Mr. Manafort and Mr. Flynn.”

We all know that Obama sought to influence the British BREXIT vote telling the British if they voted for BREXIT, they would have to get queque . We all have watched the video intervening in the French Election for Macron. However, what has not been widely know is that the Obama Administration intervened in Canada with operative and money to overthrow the conservatives.
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The real question is what is going on with the New York Times and the Washington Post? They both endorsed Hillary and this seems like a desperate act to claim that Trump is not a legitimate president and he should be overthrown. In the years of research studying the economy and the press accounts over the centuries, I have never seen such a totally dishonest level of reporting than we see today. They have devolved into a biased media that withholding the truth to shape opinions as they desire. This, in my view, is the ultimate treason against the sovereignty of the people. The Washington Post boldly claims as their motto: “Democracy Dies in Darkness” which is exactly what they are doing. PRINT THE TRUTH!


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A New Financial System Is Being Born
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by Tyler Durden
May 26, 2017 2:00 AM


Authored by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,
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If Bitcoin blew you away when you first discovered it, and continues to do so to this day, Spiral Dynamics can help explain why. Bitcoin was an expression in the physical world of the newly emergent leading-edge integral level consciousness. It drew lessons from history and attempted to take the best of orange and green worldviews and incorporate them into an entirely new form of money. We see the clear presence of free markets and individualism, as well as the intentional separation of the system from dominator hierarchies (bureaucratic government meddling), which had corrupted all money before it. Its greenness is evident in the fact that by design no individual or company controls the network. Global, decentralized, revolutionary technology. This is perhaps the perfect example of integral consciousness operating on our planet at this time from an economics standpoint, and why it has captured the imagination of so many, while at the same time being violently rejected by so many others.



From February’s post: Why Increased Consciousness is the Only Path Forward

Although I had heard about it much earlier, I didn’t truly start investigating Bitcoin until the summer of 2012. The more I learned the more my mind was blown away, and for a while I couldn’t think about anything else. What truly solidified its real world usefulness to me was when I discovered it had been used by Wikileaks to accept payments in the midst of a financial services blockade against the renegade publisher. This realization inspired my first Bitcoin related post in August 2012 titled, Bitcoin: A Way to Fight Back Against the Financial Terrorists?



In that piece, I linked to a Forbes article that detailed the revolutionary events taking place. We learned:
Following a massive release of secret U.S. diplomatic cables in November 2010, donations to WikiLeaks were blocked by Bank of America, VISA, MasterCard, PayPal and Western Union on December 7th, 2010. Although private companies certainly have a right to select which transactions to process or not, the political environment produced less than a fair and objective decision. It was coordinated pressure exerted in a politicized climate by the U.S. government and it won’t be the last time that we see this type of pressure.

Fortunately, there is way around this and other financial blockades with a global payment method immune to political pressure and monetary censorship.

On its public bitcoin address, Wikileaks has taken in over $32,000 equivalent in more than 1,100 separate bitcoin donations throughout the blockade (1BTC = $10.00). But these amounts may be significantly higher, because it does not even include the individually-generated bitcoin addresses that WikiLeaks provides for donors upon request.


I knew right then and there that Bitcoin had the potential to change the world. My passion for Bitcoin was always framed by my ten years working in the financial industry. Many of us who lived through the 2008 crisis knew the financial system was dead. We knew it was corrupt, archaic and terminal, so many of us began bracing for what might come next. We did what we thought made sense at the time, which included buying precious metals like gold and silver given their historic track record of protecting wealth in periods of paradigm-shifting financial disruption. Others took more extreme measures to protect themselves from the end of the financial system, but a small group forward thinking geeks decided to do something much better. They decided to build an alternative.


Thus, Bitcoin was born and early adopters in the field of technology immediately began to build on top of it. As soon as I realized what was happening much of the “doom and gloom” that had enveloped my thinking began to lift. I now knew that even if the financial system crashed and burned tomorrow, the early stages of a new and far more honest financial system were already in place. The emergence of Bitcoin literally changed my life for the better as it allowed me to emerge from a cave of gloom and become optimistic about our long-term future. While I knew the path would be long and hard since the current entrenched interests wouldn’t give up without a fight, I could see a very bright light at the end of the tunnel, and the continued development in this space has been extraordinary to watch ever since.

The global financial system as it stands completely archaic and corrupt. It enriches the wrong types of people for the wrong sort of behavior, and is entirely extractive and parasitic by design. If there’s sector in the economy that needs a total redesign and reboot for the sake of humanity, it’s the financial system.

Being involved in the crypto world for the past five years has been a breath of fresh air and a shot of adrenaline to my system. Traditional markets are a rigged snooze-fest by comparison, grotesque financial Potemkin villages designed to make overly indebted, predatory economies look good. What I find so fascinating about the current environment is that many of the dreams we all read about in the very early days of Bitcoin are starting to be implemented and designed, slowly but surely. For those of you who still have a difficult time conceptualizing exactly what’s happening in the space, I think the following tweet may help.






On that note, I want to talk about more than just Bitcoin, which I see as the reserve currency of the crypto world. Beyond Bitcoin, a lot of the buzz in the space right now revolves around a burgeoning phenomenon known as ICOs, or Initial Coin Offerings. So what are ICOs?


Yesterday, TechCrunch published an interesting piece on the topic. Here are a few keys points:
Because this editor was still confused (I’m not proud), I talked yesterday with Stan Miroshnik, a UC Berkeley grad with an MBA from MIT who today runs L.A.-based Argon Group, one of the first digital finance-focused investment banks. Miroshnik nicely answered an array of questions about ICOs, including how these things get staged, how companies establish a value for their offerings, and more. If you’re still trying to get a handle of this latest investing trend, too, read on.

TC: ICOs are everywhere suddenly. When was the first ICO staged?

SM: You have to go back to around 2013, when Mastercoin, a protocol on top the bitcoin blockchain, raised $500,000. Then you had a number of other milestone token sales, such as Ethereum in 2014, then the DAO, or Decentralized Autonomous Organization, which was built on the Ethereum blockchain and that stored and transmitted Ether and Ethereum-based assets and that raised the equivalent of $150 million last year.

Momentum began to build after that, as a smaller group of [these offerings] grew in size, and by last fall, some companies were raising millions of dollars in minutes. That really kind of made people stand up and wonder if this is a new funding mechanism.
TC: How many ICOs have there been to date?

SM: There were 64 last year that collectively raised $103 million, excluding the DAO. So far this year, we’ve seen 25 offerings raise a bit more than $163 million, and we’re on track to see more than $210 million raised by the end of June.

TC: So how do these ICOs work, practically speaking?

SM: There’s a cadence to these things. You do the prep-work and get your project to a natural technical milestone. Then you pre-announce when you’re planning to have a token sale, describing some of the terms, and telling a story of the project and its goals. You publish a white paper and disclosure and give people a chance to read it and comment. There are also usually threads that develop on Reddit, Bitcointalk, Slack, Telegram and elsewhere, where people actively debate the merits of the product. Then, on the landing page on the aforementioned date, there’s typically a tool that enables purchasers to acquire the tokens in exchange for bitcoin or ether.

TC: Is there a concern that U.S. regulators will crack down on these ICOs?

SM: Lawyers are relying on case law that defines what a security is. The most well-known case is the “Howey Test,” created by the Supreme Court for determining whether certain transactions qualify as investment contracts. If they do, then those transactions are considered securities and are subject to certain disclosure and registration requirements. When tokens are structured basically as the sale of a service or product, they’re designed to make sure the various prongs of the test are not triggered.

TC: What types of companies are primarily using ICOs?

SM: It’s still a financing mechanism that’s very organic to the blockchain community.

It all started with protocols like Ethereum raising funding through this mechanism, and it has stayed close to related projects, like the distributed storage company Storj and Civic, a company that provides identify through the blockchain and is announcing its token sale this Thursday. A lot of these founders and token buyers are part of bitcoin forums and Reddit, and that’s why [certain companies] are able to raise these large sums fairly quickly; they’re reaching out to thought leaders and getting their support and generating buzz about their projects. It’s basically the open source community, now with an open-source funding mechanism.

TC: What happens when people want to sell the tokens they’ve bought?

SM: Well, first, you can use them in a company’s ecosystem. With Storj, maybe you buy storage. You can also accumulate these tokens over time, as a bet that with more enterprise demand for storage capacity, the coins will become more valuable, after which you can sell your tokens to someone else who needs to purchase storage space.

There are also a number of cryptocurrency exchanges where these tokens trade. In the case of Storj, you can sell or buy on Poloniex or Bittrex.

TC: Should VCs be nervous about ICOs? You mention Civic, which is staging an ICO. Civic has also raised some venture capital previously. But plenty of other companies seem to be skipping the VC part.

SM: To some degree they should, but we’ve also talked with a lot of very smart VCs who are looking at this space, including August Capital, Tim and Adam Draper, Blockchain Capital. Many are doing the work to understand how to be involved and active in the space and the fundamental value of these protocols. Union Square Ventures has said it now has a mandate from its LPs to hold these assets.

For companies that raise funds through a token sale and that have had traditional angel or venture rounds previously, for example, their equity investors get to skip one or two rounds of dilution, which is great; it means their returns are hyper-levered.

There are two points I want to emphasize from the above. First, just how early we are in the development of this area. The numbers are absolutely tiny at this point despite all the hype. Recall that in 2017,we’ve seen 25 offerings raise a bit more than $163 million. That’s an infinitesimally small number in the scheme of things, thus room for growth is massive. That being said, people considering getting involved in this space as a buyer of ICOs need to be extraordinarily careful.

Investing in general is risky and challenging, but putting money into an ICO adds several other layers of complexity and risk. First, as noted above these things are not equity investments since they aren’t allowed to be under current regulations. Therefore, you’re not simply investing in a startup, which is always extremely risky, but you’re making a bet that the token itself is useful and will accrue in value over time. Therefore, not only do you need to be right about the success of the business or product itself, but the token also must have a real value-creating purpose to succeed in the long-run. Many people will not understand this and think they are buying into the equity of the underlying businesses, which sets up a perfect environment for fraudsters. You also need to bear in minds there’s a ton of Bitcoin liquidity that is flooding around the space given the massive run its had. Most early Bitcoin adopters and investors are very passionate and dedicated to this space. They don’t want to sell coin for dollars, but want to put it in new projects to keep the broader ecosystem growing. I think this is a fantastic thing, but it also means there’s a lot of crypto currency sloshing around trying to find a home.



Despite the risks, I think the emergence of the burgeoning token market is a game-changing and extraordinarily empowering development. The only thing preventing the crypto-coin world from rapidly displacing the middlemen and bureaucrats of the traditional financial system are the barriers around the traditional financial world. While we’d like to think these barriers are there to protect the little people, we all know that the SEC and other such regulatory bodies largely exist to protect the rich and powerful and secure their moat.



We saw this under Obama’s Mary Jo White, and we will surely see it under Trump’s pick Jay Clayton, who seems to have all sorts of conflicts, including a wife who works at Goldman Sachs. The SEC doesn’t protect the people, but as long as it pretends to, it can continue to function as a gatekeeper for financial oligarchs and slow down the pace of displacement of the dying financial system with the new parallel one currently being created.


All of that is fine I suppose, and innovation in the crypto world will continue until one day we will actually see equity offerings in startups to regular people as opposed to just allocations to the wealthiest clients of brokerage firms. The innovation in this space has the potential to flatten the world of investing in a meaningful and powerful way, starting today with tokens, but ultimately in many other ways as well. It’s gonna take time, but it’ll happen.


At this point, I just want to briefly address the common retort that “governments will never let this happen,” which I get all the time.

Here’s what I had to say about it yesterday on Twitter, and I don’t really have much to say beyond this.
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To conclude, I’d like to dedicate this post to all the brilliant geeks and the dynamic entrepreneurs pushing hard every day to realize this incredible dream of a decentralized future. A future that breaks down barriers, removes middlemen and empowers humanity to take its next evolutionary leap forward. You are the ones creating this brand new world brimming with potential and optimism, and I want to thank for all you have done and continue to do.

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Global Rally Fizzles After "OPEC Shock" In "Slow Risk-Off Session"
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by Tyler Durden
May 26, 2017 6:52 AM



S&P futures were fractionally lower from yesterday's record high as European stocks declined and Asian stocks were mixed, pressured by yesterday's 5% plunge in crude after OPEC unexpectedly "failed to surprise" markets, and announced the bare minimum supply cut extension that was expected by oil traders, who in turn puked long positions.


It wasn't just oil: it has been a slow risk-off session as Bloomberg phrased it, ahead of the long weekend for U.S. and U.K. markets, with the key carry pair, USD/JPY breaking below 111.00 as the USD continues to weakens, while the GBP tumbled 0.5%, after the latest poll shows Tory lead narrowing. As futures declined, fixed income markets ground higher as the 2s10s hits flattest level YTD. European equity markets open lower led by oil related stocks after yesterday’s heavy sell-off in oil. Automakers also weaker after possible Trump comments on German car exports. Gold well supported amid general risk-off.


Most of the early attention, however, was on the market's reaction to yesterday's oil selloff. “To say that yesterday’s performance was disappointing for bulls is an understatement,” Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates wrote in an emailed report quoted by Bloomberg. “It is, however, not a foregone conclusion that the trend is definitely turning. The question now is whether yesterday’s sharp drop in oil prices was a panic long-liquidation or the technical picture is now firmly turning bearish.”
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Stocks from Tokyo to Europe were dragged down by oil producers as oil headed for a weekly loss after falling the most in three weeks on Thursday as OPEC’s move to prolong supply cuts for nine months disappointed investors hoping for more.


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“Markets ultimately found the renewed deal among OPEC and friends underwhelming,” Cole Akeson, a strategist at Sberbank CIB in Moscow, wrote in a note. “Essentially, the market consensus seems to have come around to a view that regardless of what effect on global inventories the deal may have for now, OPEC and its partners have little insight as to what to do later on.”

Before this week’s deal, oil had climbed back above $51 a barrel after Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC member Russia rallied support from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other nations to extend the supply pact into 2018. However, as the chart below shows, that proved to be too optimstic for a market which no longer will buy simple on OPEC jawboning, but demands results.
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With oil in the spotlight, Japan’s Topix index slipped 0.6%, trimming its weekly advance to 0.6%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.7 percent, with BHP Billiton Ltd. dropping 2 percent. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.5 percent to another record. The index is up 2.9 percent for the week, the biggest gain in two months. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was flat, keeping its weekly gain at 1.8 percent, while the Shanghai Composite increased 0.1 percent.


The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.4% with oil and gas producers falling 1.2%. S&P 500 futures were little changed, after rising 0.4% on Thursday to new all time highs driven by a narrow basket of tech stocks.

Elsewhere, as discussed last night, the British pound tumbled over 0.5% to $1.2861 and looked set for its biggest one-day slide in over three weeks and steepest one-week decline since early April, after a poll showed the Conservative party lead narrowed after the Manchester attack, and as investors in Asia sold the currency after U.K.’s first-quarter economic growth missed estimates. The poll results come less than two weeks before the June 8 general election.
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"With this kind of momentum and almost two weeks to go until the vote, not only is this not going to be the breeze that May anticipated when she called the snap election last month, it could yet turn into a humiliating defeat for the Conservative leader and her party," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA. "Coming on the back of losses yesterday, it's turning into a rotten end to the week for the pound."


Elsewhere, confirming that the reason for the sharp spike in the Yuan over the past two days, the biggest move since January, was direct government intervention, overnight Bloomberg reported that China is considering changes to the way it calculates the yuan’s daily reference rate against the dollar "to reduce exchange-rate volatility while undermining efforts to increase the role of market forces" in Asia’s largest economy. Policy makers may add a “counter-cyclical factor” to the yuan’s daily fixing, according to a government statement on Friday. Analysts said the change would give authorities more control over the fixing and restrain the influence of market pricing.


Overnight, both the onshore and offshore yuan rose to three-month highs on continued speculation the Chinese government will continue to support the currency and stock markets. The currency advanced for a second day on talk state-backed funds were propping up Chinese assets Thursday following Moody’s downgrade of China’s credit rating.


In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1 percent, poised for a second week of declines. The pound slid 0.5 percent to $1.2875 (see above). The yen rose 0.7 percent to 111.11 per dollar, after dropping 0.3 percent on Thursday. The euro strengthened 0.2 percent to $1.1227


After its sharp drop on Thursday, oil edged higher in early trading but remained on the back foot after tumbling 5% in the previous session. On Thursday in Vienna, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC producers agreed to extend a pledge to cut around 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) until the end of the first quarter of 2018 - disappointing investors betting on longer or larger curbs.


Friday economic data include annualized GDP, durable goods orders and University of Michigan indexes.
Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

1. European equities enter the North American crossover lower as energy names underperform following yesterday's OPEC announcement
2. GBP has been placed under pressure after the latest polling data shows the race for Downing Street getting closer
3. Looking ahead, highlights include US GDP, Durables and Uni. Of Michigan

Market Snapshot

1. S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,411.55
2. STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 390.42
3. MXAP up 0.01% to 152.86
4. MXAPJ down 0.08% to 499.83
5. Nikkei down 0.6% to 19,686.84
6. Topix down 0.6% to 1,569.42
7. Hang Seng Index up 0.03% to 25,639.27
8. Shanghai Composite up 0.07% to 3,110.06
9. Sensex up 0.8% to 30,983.82
10. Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 5,751.66
11. Kospi up 0.5% to 2,355.30
12. German 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to 0.348%
13. Euro up 0.1% to 1.1225 per US$
14. Brent futures up 0.8% to $51.84/bbl
15. Italian 10Y yield fell 1.9 bps to 1.826%
16. Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.2 bps to 1.562%
17. Brent futures up 0.8% to $51.84/bbl
18. Gold spot up 0.8% to $1,265.34
19. U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 97.11

Top overnight news

1. Political uncertainty in the U.K. rose after the race between the ruling Conservative party and opposing Labour party narrowed, raising prospects that the Tory majority will be smaller than expected and this could have implications on the Brexit process.
2. The Federal Reserve is ‘very close’ to where it needs to be on policy and shouldn’t be thinking in terms of major increases in the policy rate, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard tells reporters in Tokyo
3. Focus on U.S. President Donald Trump’s G-7 summit visit which will involve debates on climate change, free trade, terrorism and security
4. China is considering changes to the way it calculates the yuan’s daily reference rate against the dollar, a move that’s likely to reduce exchange-rate volatility while undermining efforts to increase the role of market forces in Asia’s largest economy
5. The OPEC’s historic pact to extend oil supply cuts has left markets guessing on the group’s long term plans and its exit strategy

Asia equity markets traded mixed as the region failed to take the baton from another record setting day on Wall St, with oil names dampened following the weakness across the energy complex. This saw commodity-related sectors in ASX 200 (-0.7%) underperform as they felt the brunt of the 5% declines in crude prices due to disappointment from the OPEC output extension deal. A firmer JPY kept the Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) subdued, while Hang Seng (Unch.) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) traded choppy amid a reserved liquidity operation by the PBoC and continued pessimistic comments from Moody's following the recent sovereign rating downgrade. 10yr JGBs traded higher amid a downbeat risk tone, while the BoJ were also present in the market under its bond buying operation for JPY 750b1n of JGBs in the belly to super-long end. Moody's stated that China growth will slow, while it added that China may lose Al rating if there are signs debt keeps increasing and debt surpasses expectations.
Top Asian News

1. Taiwan’s Economy Grew 2.6% Y/y in 1Q; Survey Est. +2.6%
2. China Confirms It’s Considering Changing Yuan Fixing Formula
3. Vanguard to Triple Shanghai Staff by Year-End as China Opens
4. SBI Said to Pick BofA, Deutsche Bank for $2 Billion Offering
5. Incoming Philippine BSP Governor Discusses His Plans: Q&A
6. China Money Funneled to Far-Flung Homes Flags Bubble Trouble
7. Hong Kong Dollar Heads for Biggest Weekly Drop Since Early 2016

European equities trade with modest losses, largely stemming from the disappointed/scepticism amongst investors over OPEC's decision to only extend the current output cut by 9-months. Following this announcement crude prices slipped, WTI hitting a low of USD 48.21, subsequently large energy names felt the brunt of this. Although, crude prices have seen a modest reprieve this morning with WTI consolidating above USD 49. Across credit markets, EGB's have been kept afloat with support from FTQ flow, upside in bunds has met resistance at the 161.55 area, a breach may see a move to the 18th May highs situated at 162.02. As we approach month-end, Citi expect healthy extensions for European and UK bonds, with OATs set to benefit the most.
Top European News

1. Retirement Savings Gap Is Seen Climbing to $400 Trillion by 2050
2. EU to Demand Full ECJ Jurisdiction on Rights Post-Brexit: Doc.
3. Italian Manufacturing Morale Falls Amid Concerns Over Recovery
4. Portugal Asks to Make EU9.7b Early Repayment to IMF: IGCP
5. Barclays Bid to Cut Africa Stake Still With S. Africa Regulator
6. Restaurant Group Surges Most in 9 Months on ‘Reassuring’ Update

In currencies, GBP has been pressured with market attention being placed on the most recent polls which have shown a narrowing lead for PM May and her Conservative party over the Labour party. As such, GBP has tripped below 1.2900 to eye up support layered in around 1.2850-1.2844, a break through this could see a test to the May 4th low at 1.2831. USD-index continued to ease as one of the more dovish FOMC speakers, Bullard sounded the alarm over the path of inflation, most of this seen against the JPY, which has run through support at 111.50. Elsewhere, the slip in commodities pressures AUD yet again, this continues to drive AUD/NZD lower which is now hovering around 3-month lows, given that NZD has remained firm in the wake of New Zealand's strong budget position.


In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures have staged a modest recovery from yesterday's lows to enter the North American crossover modestly higher with the usual value-buyers entering the market amid no new developments on the fundamental side since yesterday's OPEC-inspired sell-off. In terms of newsflow for the complex, things have remained relatively light as markets take a breather from yesterday. In metals markets, Gold has seen mild support with the safe-haven asset underpinned amid a cautious risk tone, which also kept copper subdued.


Looking at the day ahead now, the focus will be on the US this afternoon where there are a number of important releases due. First up is the second estimate of Q1 GDP where the consensus is for an upward revision in growth to +0.9% qoq from +0.7%. Our US colleagues expect a small upward revision to +0.8% qoq. Importantly for growth in the current quarter we’ll also receive the April durable and capital goods orders report where the consensus is for a weak headline durable goods orders print to be offset by a healthy gain in both ex-transportation orders (+0.4% mom expected) and core capex orders (+0.5% mom expected). Also due out this afternoon is the final May University of Michigan consumer sentiment print where it’s worth keeping an eye on the various inflation expectations indicators too.


US Event Calendar

1. 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 0.9%, prior 0.7%; Personal Consumption, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%; GDP Price Index, est. 2.3%, prior 2.3%; Core PCE QoQ, est. 2.0%, prior 2.0%
2. 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, est. -1.5%, prior 0.9%, revised 1.7%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.4%, prior 0.0%, revised 0.8%
   1. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%, revised 0.3%

3. 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 97.5, prior 97.7
   1. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, prior 112.7
   2. U. of Mich. Expectations, prior 88.1
   3. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, prior 2.6%
   4. U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 2.3%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
With markets already with one eye on the long weekend holidays in the US and UK it’s not been the most inspiring last 24 hours. Really it has been all about Oil after prices fell sharply yesterday in the wake of OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreeing to extend the production cut deal by 9 months into 2018. That was pretty much as guided to although the disappointment reflected in the price action appeared to be twofold with cuts not being deepened and no new producers joining the pact. It did however appear that there was some optionality left open for cuts being extended beyond the additional 9 months should prices decline. It was also noted that the importance of the five-year rolling average of OECD inventory was cemented and our commodity strategists highlight that this helps solidify their expectations that output controls will eventually be extended at least until the end of 2018, and more likely than not into 2019 (you can find more details in their report here https://goo.gl/aE1ehM).

After touching a high of $52.00/bbl yesterday morning, post the headlines WTI proceeded to tumble and finished the day down -4.79% at $48.90/bbl and back to the lowest level in a week. It was also the third biggest daily decline this year. This morning it is down another -0.90% too. The biggest impact on other asset classes yesterday was Oil-sensitive currencies with the likes of the Russian Ruble (-0.90%), Norwegian Krone (-0.79%) and Canadian Dollar (-0.57%) all weaker.

That was really the extent of the excitement in markets though. Given the holidays in Europe volumes were thin and price action was pretty benign as a result (Stoxx 600 ending -0.06%). Meanwhile it was business as usual for US equity markets again where – despite the energy sector doing its best to weigh on broader indices – the S&P 500 (+0.44%) rose for the sixth consecutive session and in doing so notched up yet another record high. The longest consecutive winning streak for the S&P this year came in February when it rose for seven sessions on the trot. Some better than expected results in the retail sector, namely from Best Buy and PVH, appeared to be the driving force yesterday while the VIX also finished the day lower and closed below 10.00 (at 9.99) for the first time in over 2 weeks. In fact it’s now closed below that level 3 times this year, including yesterday. From 1990-2016, it had actually only closed below 10 on a total of 9 occasions.



There was a similar lack of excitement in Treasuries yesterday where yields finished the day little changed after spending much of the session in a tight range. We did hear from the Fed and specifically from Governor Lael Brainard who said that she is encouraged by a brightening global economic outlook and that downside risks from certain economies appear to be fading. Brainard has previously been one of the most dovish Fed officials for what it’s worth.


While we’re on the Fed, it’s worth highlighting that yesterday our US economists made some small timing changes to their Fed call for the rest of the year in light of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes. They note that if the Fed intends to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury and MBS securities this year, then policymakers are likely to announce a change in their reinvestment policy at the conclusion of the September 20 FOMC meeting. The details of this policy should be made known well in advance – most likely after the June meeting (press conference and/or minutes). The team go on to say that given the committee’s concerns about a subsequent over-tightening of financial conditions once the process of reinvestment tapering begins, it is unlikely that the Fed will raise the fed funds rate at the same time that they announce a change in reinvestment policy. As a result the team has now shifted their view of a June and September hike to a June and December hike, with the Fed staying put at the September meeting.


Elsewhere, President Trump’s overseas tour continues with Trump yesterday causing some ripples at the NATO summit after criticising allies for “chronic underfunding”. Meanwhile the travel ban is back in focus overnight after the US attorney general said that the White House will appeal its latest courtroom defeat in the US Supreme Court. Also worth pointing out is the Washington Post reporting that investigators are now focusing on Trump’s son-in-law and advisor Jared Kushner in connection with the Russia-Election investigation. Kushner was said to have held meetings with Russia in December, however it remains to be seen if this is the person of interest that was mentioned in press reports (like Washington Post) last week.


In Asia this morning it’s been a much more mixed start for major bourses. While the Nikkei (-0.35%), and ASX (-0.65%) are down, mostly as a result of weakness in the energy sector, the Shanghai Comp and Hang Seng are flat and the Kospi (+0.48%) has edged higher. US equity futures are also little changed. Meanwhile the big mover in FX this morning is Sterling which is down -0.42% versus the Dollar after a YouGov poll for the Times (conducted over 24-25 May) showed the Conservatives as holding just a 5% lead over Labour at 43% to 38%. That is the smallest lead for the Tories since May became PM back in July last year. The last YouGov poll (18-19 May) showed the Conservatives as holding a 9% lead at 44% to 35%. Other opinion polls showed a lead for the Tories of as much 12-13% just over a week ago, so it’s worth keeping an eye on this trend over the next week or two.


The other news to highlight from overnight is the PBoC announcing that it is planning a change in the formula behind the daily yuan fixing to include a ‘counter-cyclical adjustment factor’. The suggestion is that it’ll dampen the impact of big swings. There has been little change in either the onshore or offshore yuan following that news. Finally inflation data in Japan this morning didn’t throw up any real surprises with headline (+0.4% yoy), core (+0.3% yoy) and core-core (+0.0% yoy) rates all up slightly versus March and more or less matching expectations.


In terms of yesterday’s economic data, in the US the advance goods trade balance reading in April revealed a slightly wider than expected deficit of $67.6bn. Away from that initial jobless claims continue to hover at multi-decade lows after printing at 234k for last week. The four-week average is now at 235k. Meanwhile the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity index for May edged up 1pt to +8 (vs. +9 expected) with the details showing that both new orders and employment were a little firmer which is in contrast to the data we saw in the Richmond Fed’s survey. The other data was the April wholesale inventories print which came in at -0.3% mom and will likely result in downward pressure on some of the GDP trackers. In Europe the only data came from the UK where Q1 GDP was revised down to +0.2% qoq from +0.3% with the big negative contribution coming from net trade.


Looking at the day ahead now, with no data of significance due out in Europe this morning the focus will be on the US this afternoon where there are a number of important releases due. First up is the second estimate of Q1 GDP where the consensus is for an upward revision in growth to +0.9% qoq from +0.7%. Our US colleagues expect a small upward revision to +0.8% qoq. Importantly for growth in the current quarter we’ll also receive the April durable and capital goods orders report where the consensus is for a weak headline durable goods orders print to be offset by a healthy gain in both ex-transportation orders (+0.4% mom expected) and core capex orders (+0.5% mom expected). Also due out this afternoon is the final May University of Michigan consumer sentiment print where it’s worth keeping an eye on the various inflation expectations indicators too.


Away from the data there isn’t much central bank speak to highlight but it’s worth keeping an eye on the G7 summit where Trump, May, Macron and Merkel are gathering. That meeting concludes on Saturday with closing press conferences due to take place so we’ll have a recap in Monday’s EMR of any important snippets. Fingers crossed we’ll also be opening Monday on the back of an FA Cup final win for Arsenal tomorrow. We need one positive to come away from what has otherwise been a fairly depressing season for Arsenal fans.

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: NOTE FOR EVERYONE READING THIS FINANCIAL REVIEW.....

As I was reading and posting and thinking it became clear to me why most people that post or read things on Forex Factory are not able to achieve what they want. That is to make money trading currencies or trading CFD's.

That is because they are not in the business of trading since it is not the main thing that they do so it becomes very difficult to invest the time needed to trade properly. My definition of trade properly is to make money. That is why it becomes so easy to trade using charts and other forms of this such as Supply and Demand and Support and Resistance or Pivot Points. You could include others hiowever when you ignore fundamentals and Money Flow the results are not going to be what they could be by trading professionally.

My thoughts are shared here and it is my observation not any form of criticism.

Have a Great Forex Trading Day....

http://marketrealist.com/2017/05/asi...-stronger-yen/


Wall Street Strengthens, US Dollar and Treasury Yields Are Weaker PART 1 OF 3

S&P 500 and NASDAQ Are at Record Highs on May 25

By Val Kensington | May 26, 2017 6:57 am EDT

S&P 500
After breaking the 2,400 level and closing at all-time high price levels on Wednesday, the S&P 500 continues to strengthen. On May 25, nine out of 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 closed the day positivethe consumer discretionary sector and information technology sector supported the markets strength.


Support from retailers and economic data
On May 25, Wall Street was supported by strong economic data and a rally in retail sector stocks. Market sentiment improved due to the stronger-than-expected labor market. According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 20 rose by 1,000 and reached 234,000. Initial jobless claims were less than the markets expected reading of 238,000. Jobless claims below the threshold of 300,000 reflect a healthy labor market. By rising less than expected, the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims fell to a 44-year low, which shows more tightening in the labor market.


The market is also supported by upbeat economic data in the retail sector. In Part 2, well discuss how stocks performed in the retail sector. On May 25, the S&P 500 opened the day higher and rose to fresh all-time high price levels. The S&P 500 VIX Index (CBOE Volatility Index) measures uncertainty in the market. On May 25, it fell 0.3% to 9.9a two-week low. The VIX index is measured on a scale of 1100 with 20 as the historical average. Its also called the fear index. Generally, it moves opposite to stocks movementsit rises when the S&P 500 falls.


NASDAQ and Dow
Like the S&P 500 on Thursday, the NASDAQ Composite Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average opened the day higher. On May 25, NASDAQ rose 0.69% and ended the day at 6,205.26a record high price level. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.34% and closed at 21,082.95. In the next part, well discuss the top and bottom market movers on May 25.

Wall Street Strengthens, US Dollar and Treasury Yields Are Weaker PART 2 OF 3


Best Buy Was the S&P 500’s Top Gainer on May 25

By Val Kensington | May 26, 2017 6:57 am EDT

Top gainers and losers
The top gainers in the S&P 500 on May 25 were:

1. Best Buy (BBY) rose 21.5%.
2. Phillips-Van Heusen (PVH) rose 4.8%.
3. CSRA (CSRA) rose 4.6%.
4. Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA) rose 4.5%.
5. Norfolk Southern (NSC) rose 4.2%.

The top losers in the S&P 500 on May 25 were:

1. Signet Jewelers (SIG) fell 7.8%.
2. Transocean (RIG) fell 7.6%.
3. Marathon Oil (MRO) fell 7.1%.
4. Chesapeake Energy (CHK) fell 6.7%.
5. Hormel Foods (HRL) fell 6.4%.

Best Buy rose
Best Buy rose to record high price levels on May 25. Despite prevailing weakness in the retail sector, Best Buy posted upbeat first quarter results.

According to management, first quarter sales in stores that have been active for more than a year rose 1.6%. Analysts expected sales to fall 1.5%—the company expected sales to fall 1.5%–2.5%. The unexpected rise in sales triggered a rally on Thursday. Best Buy’s net income and revenue also beat analysts’ expectations.

Net income and expected revenue
Best Buy’s net income for the quarter ending in April fell to $188 million or $0.60—better than analysts’ estimate of $0.40 per share. Best Buy’s revenue rose 1% in the first quarter to $8.53 billion—the expected revenue was $8.28 billion. Most retail companies are struggling in the market amid competition from online retailers like Amazon (AMZN). Best Buy’s online sales rose 23% and accounted for 13% of overall online sales in the US.


Best Buy’s sales also gained support from healthy US unemployment data. The unemployment rate in the US was near a ten-year low in March. As a result, homeowners increased their spending, especially on electrical appliances. On May 25, Best Buy rose 21.5% and ended the day at $61.25. In the next part, we’ll discuss how the US dollar and Treasury yields performed in the early hours on May 26.



Part 3
Wall Street Strengthens, US Dollar and Treasury Yields Are Weaker PART 3 OF 3

US Dollar Index and Treasury Yields Are Weaker in the Early Hours

By Val Kensington | May 26, 2017 6:57 am EDT

US Dollar Index
Despite opening lower, the US Dollar Index regained strength on Thursday and closed positive. The US Dollar Index reversed its gains and traded lower in the early hours on Friday.
https://marketrealist.imgix.net/uplo...ax&auto=format




Better-than-expected US jobs data supported the US dollar on Thursday. Forecasted initial jobless claims were 238,000, but the U.S. Department of Labor reported 234,000 initial jobless claims. The US dollar is looking forward to the release of major US economic data scheduled for today—core durable goods orders and GDP. There’s more of a focus on US data this week because of the Fed’s meeting minutes on May 24. According to the Fed’s meeting minutes, most Fed officials said that interest rates should be hiked with the support of upcoming economic data.


At 5:30 AM EST on Friday, the US Dollar Index is trading at 97.10—a fall of 0.14%.


US Treasury yields
After regaining some strength and closing the day almost flat on Thursday, US Treasury yields are weaker in the early hours on Friday. US Treasury yields were weaker due to the fall in oil prices amid the supply cut extension. Generally, higher oil prices increase inflation expectations and support Treasury yields. On the other hand, stronger-than-expected initial jobless claims data supported the yields.
At 5:50 AM EST on May 26:

1. The ten-year Treasury yield was trading at 2.241—a fall of ~0.61%.
2. The 30-year Treasury yield was trading at 2.914—a fall of ~0.36%.
3. The five-year Treasury yield was trading at 1.778—a fall of ~0.62%.
4. The two-year Treasury yield was trading at 1.290—a fall of ~0.64%.

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) rose 0.03%. The ProShares UltraPro Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TTT) and the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) fell 0.49% and 0.08%, respectively, on May 25.





By Val Kensington | May 26, 2017 8:09 am EDT


Economic calendar
8:30 AM EST – US core durable goods orders (April)

https://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=151136

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...2/#more-151199

Here are the charts

Have a nice weekend

http://www.coindesk.com/crypto-trade...rice-pullback/

Crypto Traders See Red As Profit Taking Fuels Price Pullback

May 25, 2017 by Charles Bovaird





https://media.coindesk.com/uploads/2...MC-768x516.jpg
The cryptocurrency markets are full of ups and downs – but perhaps there hasn't been a day in history quite like today.

Just hours after bitcoin set a new all-time high, it fell more than $400 in a matter of hours – but, it wasn't alone in seeing its direction dip into the red. Several other cryptocurrencies followed bitcoin lower, suffering notable losses, according to CoinMarketCap.


What caused these sharp declines? Profit taking, according to analysts polled by CoinDesk.

After robust inflows pushed the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies above $90bn (a monthly increase of roughly 200%), traders were simply taking money off the table.


After experiencing this notable rally, many cryptocurrencies started losing value, a development that coincided with the price of bitcoin falling more than 15% in a matter of hours, CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (BPI) data reveals.


Several other top 10 cryptocurrencies also suffered losses of more than 10%, according to CoinMarketCap.

"[Traders] took this opportunity to capitalize on the excessive hype that's been building up over the past few days in the space," said Petar Zivkovski, COO of leveraged cryptocurrency trading platform Whaleclub.

While traders were seeking safety, their anxiety also helped fuel the broad drop in cryptocurrency prices, according to Charles Hayter, co-founder and CEO of CryptoCompare. These market participants felt "jittery" after the recent gains, he told CoinDesk.


Even though bitcoin prices did fall notably during the session, some analysts described this decline as "healthy".

Tim Enneking, chairman of Crypto Asset Management, expressed positive sentiment regarding the fallback in prices, concluding:
"Bitcoin had moved too far too fast. This is a healthy, call it a 'correction', coming on the heels of a very strong move it."
Poker chip image via Shutterstock

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index2306.htm

“Deep State” In Disarray As Trump’s “Fathomless Federation” Gains Ground

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/pppz2.jpghttp://www.whatdoesitmean.com/pppz1.jpghttp://www.whatdoesitmean.com/ujk1.jpg

“There is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, more dangerous to manage than the creation of a new system.”

Niccolò Machiavelli (1469-1527) Renaissance historian, politician, diplomat, philosopher, humanist, and writer called the founder of modern political science.

Special Report from Sister Ciara

On 17 January 1961, President Dwight Eisenhower gave his farewell address to the American wherein he warned:
“In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist. We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes.
We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together.”

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/ekek1.jpg

Three months later, on 27 April 1961, the newly inaugurated President John F. Kennedy echoed Eisenhower’s warning of the common danger facing the American people and added:
“The very word "secrecy" is repugnant in a free and open society; and we are as a people inherently and historically opposed to secret societies, to secret oaths and to secret proceedings. We decided long ago that the dangers of excessive and unwarranted concealment of pertinent facts far outweighed the dangers which are cited to justify it.
Even today, there is little value in opposing the threat of a closed society by imitating its arbitrary restrictions. Even today, there is little value in insuring the survival of our nation if our traditions do not survive with it. And there is very grave danger that an announced need for increased security will be seized upon by those anxious to expand its meaning to the very limits of official censorship and concealment. That I do not intend to permit to the extent that it is in my control.”

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/ekek2.jpg

President Eisenhower’s warning that “only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together”, and President Kennedy further warning about the “grave danger that an announced need for increased security will be seized upon by those anxious to expand its meaning to the very limits of official censorship and concealment”, however, have not been heeded, either by the American people themselves, or by those they’ve elected to power to rule over them.
By their decades long failure to heed the warnings of President’s Eisenhower and Kennedy, therefore, the American people now find themselves being ruled over by a “Deep State” comprised of entrenched government bureaucrats and intelligence operatives supported by a communistic-leaning Democratic Party whose policies and pronouncements are spread throughout the United States by a fanatical socialistic-fascist mainstream propaganda media apparatus—and whose combined power has created the most invasive surveillance state history has ever known that has turned this once free nation into a police state.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/ekek4.jpg

The sole purpose of this “Deep State” is to maintain a “permanent war economy” in the United States that needs a war every 4 years to maintain economic growth—but was opposed in the 1980’s by a flamboyant New York City billionaire named Donald Trump, who was deeply influenced by a book titled “Permanent War Economy: American Capitalism in Decline” whose ideas he articulated during a 25 April 1988 appearance on the Oprah Winfrey show, and where he first intimated that he might run for the US presidency.
Now for those of you who have never watched Trump’s 1988 appearance on the Oprah Winfrey show, I strongly encourage you to click on the link above and do so now—the critical importance for this being that the Trump you’re going to see in 1988 is NOTHING like the Trump you think you know, or better stated, the Trump you’re falsely being told about.
All of us Sisters, especially our Sorcha Faal, are experts in the systematic structure of languages that serve as a link between thought and sound as developed by Ferdinand de Saussure—and with our being experts in language and its uses, we were able to accurately tell you that Trump would become president—including in my personal letter to you on 22 October 2016 wherein I correctly told you that Trump was “just weeks away from achieving a landslide victory in the US presidential election”.
Anyone knowing, and understanding, the works of Ferdinand de Saussure could fully understand that Trump was going to win the US presidency too—like the American conservative social and political commentator Ann Coulter, who as an honor student at Cornell University in the early 1980’s, assisted the noted Professor Jonathan Culler in researching his groundbreaking book titled “Ferdinand de Saussure”—and which allowed her, on 19 June 2015, to definitively declare that Trump would win the presidency.
Another Ferdinand de Saussure disciple who knew Trump would win the presidency was Scott Adams, the creator of the globally renowned Dilbert comic strip that appears online and in 2,000 newspapers worldwide in 65 countries and 25 languages—and who made his prediction of Trump’s winning to The Washington Post wherein he correctly called Trump a “Master Persuader” for his expert language skills and cautioned (in December, 2015) that those saying Trump was “not smart” should remember that Trump was “a graduate of Wharton’s business school, builder of empires, master of several different domains, and probably the next President of the United States”.
In September, 2016, Scott Adams switched from supporting Hillary Clinton to backing Trump too—and after Trump won the US presidency, simply stated the obvious: “It turns out he was Keyser Söze all along – and by that I mean smarter than you thought.”

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/ekek6.png

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/ekek5.jpg

To fully understand how actually smart Trump is, you should note that in his knowing he would have to engage in a “war to the death” against the “Deep State” before he could even begin to destroy the United States “permanent war economy”, he had to first create his own, and equally powerful secret organization to do battle against them—and that many in the secretive global intelligence communities are now calling the “Fathomless Federation”—and that describes an “unable to be measured, or understood, and extremely deep” association of powerful global law firms embedded into the very fabric of America by Trump over the past nearly 4 decades.
Tutored by one of the most knowledgeable persons who ever lived about “Deep State” operations named Roy Cohn since the early 1970’s, Trump embarked upon a path of becoming the most litigious businessmen the world has ever known—and at one counting shows him being involved in 3,500 legal cases in US federal courts and State courts alone, not to mention multitudes of other foreign legal actions involving him and his empire too.
Believed to be centered in Trump’s favorite law firm named Jones Day (the largest law firm in the US and international legal behemoth), this “Fathomless Federation” includes the giant global law firm WilmerHale too—who not only represents Trump’s daughter Ivanka and her husband Jared Kushner, and his former campaign manager Paul Manafort, but are, also, now heading the so called Russian investigation against him with three of their top lawyers Robert Muller, Aaron Zebley and James Quarles.
Another of Trump’s “Fathomless Federation” law firms is the American based global giant Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton—who aside from being named 8 times as “The Russian Law Firm Of The Year”, one of its former top attorneys, named Joon Kim, is now one of Trump’s US Attorney Generals who just convicted known Hillary Clinton operative, and former US Congressman, Anthony Weiner.
Other of Trump’s “Fathomless Federation” law firms battling against the “Deep State” include the global giant law firm Morgan, Lewis & Bockius, that serves as his tax counsel, the American legal giant Kasowitz Benson Torres LLP, who represents Trump (and nearly had one of their top lawyers named Joe Lieberman nominated to be FBI Director this past week), the Washington D.C. legal powerhouse Williams & Connolly LLP whose once top attorney Mike Pompeo is now Trump’s CIA Director, and the powerful Cole Schotz P.C. that represents both Trump and his daughter Ivanka’s global business interests.
With Jones Day attorneys continuing to flood into the Trump administration as part of this massive “Fathomless Federation” onslaught against the “Deep State”, their status as the #1 law firm in the United States, and who for over a century have represented the industrial might of America, shows clearly the direction President Trump is steering his country towards—and that he made no mistake about his doing with his declaring his goal, if elected, was to “Make America Great Again”—but with his first having to “drain the swamp”.
The “swamp” that Trump and his “Fathomless Federation” are intending to “drain” is best described as the “Deep State-Media-Silicon Valley” axis—whom Trump’s “Fathomless Federation” intends to break the back of with antitrust/illegal monopoly legal actions—and that are now underway against the internet commerce giant Amazon (who own the Washington Post), the media giant Comcast (owns NBC and MSNBC), and the internet search giant Google whom Trump’s “Fathomless Federation” is currently destroying in Europe.
Anyone doubting the power of Trump’s “Fathomless Federation” in its war against the “Deep State” need only look at the Obama-Clinton Democratic Party—that is now being described as a “ghost” completely out of ideas and only able to scare people about Republicans, is crashing and burning due to its being rife with corruption, and who just this past week elected as their Chief Executive Officer to the formal governing body of the US Democratic Party an avowed communist-lesbian-atheist named Jess O'Connell.
As to how the Democratic Party can ever win anything again (aside from decrepit communist urban strongholds) none of their top officials are able to answer—and who were all shocked by a “kept from the public” study showing that not only did they lose to Trump, they would lose again as their own Democratic voters say their party only represents in 1%, and not the average American.
And in a preview of what is to come soon to all of America, last weeks Democratic Statewide Convention in California shows this political party is in “absolute crisis” as Bernie Sanders supports raged against a rigged election for Statewide Chairman, even complaining that many people voted without their first having to show identification!
Unlike the “Deep State” who is not able to even come close to the monetary worth of the “Fathomless Federation”, you should also know, the Democratic Party was only able to raise $4.7 million in April leaving their bank account at only $8.8 million as they spent more money than they raised—and as opposed to Trump’s Republican Party that raised $9.6 million in that same month and now has over $41 million banked for future races.
Now before you gloat about this destruction of the Democratic Party at the hands of Trump’s “Fathomless Federation”, you MUST remember that yesterday’s President Trump Republican win for US Congress in Montana was only able to be accomplished because people like YOU supported those of us battling through the “Deep States” censorship/propaganda wall—that by the day becomes more and more impenetrable with a new Harvard University study even shockingly showing that the US mainstream media is flooding America with up to 93% anti-Trump coverage.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/dtdt3.jpg

Now if any of you reading this thinks that we’re able to monetarily compete against the “Deep States” propaganda machine, I can only tell you that you’re not only wrong, but your having this type of attitude is dangerous too!
And just like during the times of the American Revolution when the Founding Fathers created their own “Fathomless Federation” to battle Great Britain’s “Deep State”, so too today are those seeking to “Make America Great Again” depending on their Patriots to support those few of us still telling the truth and giving you true news.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/ekek3.jpg

Remember—even with her spending double more than Trump did to win the presidency, and the entire US mainstream media establishment supporting her with billions-of-dollars of free positive coverage too, Hillary Clinton lost because people like YOU gave to those like US—and who never quit telling the truth and kept you aware of what was constantly being hidden from you.
So, and finally, on this American Memorial Day Weekend, when this once great nation remembers the countless lives lost to keep that nation free, I urge each and every one of you to give just $20 so we can continue our mission—and if freedom isn’t worth a nickel a day, what is?
With God,
Sister Ciara
Dublin, Ireland
26 May 2017

Our needs today are dire indeed, but, if every one of you reading this gave just $20.00 today, our budget for the entire year would be met! So, before you click away, ask yourself this simple question….if your knowing the truth about what is happening now, and what will be happening in the future isn’t worth 5 US pennies a day what is?

https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/scr/pixel.gif
(Please note that those who respond to this appeal, in any amount, will receive, at no charge, Sorcha Faal’s May, 2017/June, 2017 lecture series to the Sisters of the Order titled “Total War: the Collapse of the United States and the Rise of Chaos: Part 64”. This is another one of the Sorcha Faal’s most important lectures dealing with the coming timelines of war, famine, catastrophic Earth changes and disease as predicted by ancient prophecies.)

Continue To Main News Site

https://mishtalk.com/2017/05/26/apri...rt/#more-45995

MishTalk

~ Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis



April Durable Goods: Yet Another Weak Second-Quarter Report

26FridayMay 2017

Posted by Mish | May 26, 2017 12:11:14 | Economics

The string of bad economic reports at the start of the second quarter continues with today’s durable goods report.
Durable goods in April fell 0.7% vs an Econoday consensus estimate of -1.0%, but the good news (if you call that good news), stops there.

Highlights
Yet another piece of the second-quarter puzzle is not favorable. Durable goods orders, down 0.7 percent in April, do not confirm the month’s big jump in industrial production nor all the strength in the regional factory reports. Aircraft is not a factor in today’s report as the ex-transportation reading is also negative, at minus 0.4 percent which is well below Econoday’s low estimate. Also below the estimate are orders for core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) which came in unchanged following a downward revised unchanged reading in March.


Manufacturing output soared in the industrial production report but shipments in this report fell 0.3 percent and follow March’s 0.1 percent decline. Shipments of core capital goods, which are an important input into second-quarter GDP, also fell 0.1 percent. And the weakness in capital goods orders does not point to shipment strength in June or July.


Inventories edged only 0.1 percent higher but, given the decline in shipments, the inventory-to-shipments ratio moved one notch higher to a less lean 1.69. A plus in the report is unfilled orders which, after long contraction, have put together two straight positive months, at 0.2 and 0.3 percent.


Regional Manufacturing Strength?
Econoday cited strength in the regional factory reports. What strength is that?

1. April Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Turns Negative: Welcome News?
2. April Richmond Fed Index Plunged from 20 to 1: Is the Manufacturing Growth Slowdown No Longer Welcome? Already?

Durable Goods New Orders and Shipments
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=867
Despite the upward revision in new orders to 2.3% March, this was a weak report. Excluding transportation, new orders in March were up a more modest 0.8%. Excluding transportation, new orders in April fell 0.4%.

Shipments, which feed into second-quarter GDP were negative.

Core capital goods (non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft) were very weak. Core capital goods are a measure of manufacturers’ willingness to expand.

Aircraft orders play out over many years and will not affect GDP in upcoming 2017-2018 quarters.
The second quarter is off to a very weak start.

Second Quarter Reality

1. April Durable Goods shipments down 0.3%, new orders down 0.7%: April Durable Goods: Yet Another Weak Second-Quarter Report
2. Wholesale Inventories: Down 0.3% in April. March revised lower from 0.2% to 0.1%.Retail Inventories: Down 0.3% in April. March revised lower from 0.5% to 0.3%. For details, please see Fed Eyes Second Quarter Recovery, Expects Trump Fiscal Policy Will Expand Economy
3. Trade deficit in April widens by 3.8% with exports down and imports up: Trade Deficit Widens, Exports Weak: Economists Miss the Mark
4. Tax Receipts: Federal Tax Receipts Running Below Expectations
5. April New Home Sales: New Home Sales Contract 11.4%: Sales Barely Up Year-Over-Year
6. April Existing Home Sales: New Home Sales Contract 11.4%: Sales Barely Up Year-Over-Year
7. April Existing Home Sales: Spring Housing Flop: Existing Home Sales Decline 2.3 Percent, Inventory Issues Persist
8. April Housing Starts: About that Strong April Recovery: Housing Starts and Permits Flop, March Revised Lower
9. April Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Turns Negative: Welcome News?
10. April Retail Sales: Sales were at least positive (+0.4%), but they were well under economists projections: Retail Sales Disappoint Again: Department Stores Clobbered in 2017

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

There's No Painless Exit From The "Fake Faux Financialized" Economy
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
May 26, 2017 12:45 PM



Authored by Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,
A most curious feature in the current low state of American politics is the delusional thinking at both ends of the political spectrum. Both factions have gone off the rails mentally, and the parties they represent race toward oblivion like Thelma and Louise in their beater car. More ominously, there are no new factions with a grip on reality even beginning to form anywhere in the background - as in the 1850s when the Whigs foundered and the party of Lincoln segued into power.


To see the Democrats go on about “Russian collusion” you would think we were watching a rerun of the John Birch Society in its heyday. Americans who have done business in Russia as private citizens are being persecuted as though they were trading with the enemy in wartime. Newsflash: we are not at war with Russia, which, by the way, is no longer the Soviet Union. It is one of many European countries that Americans are entitled to do business in — even in the case of General Mike Flynn accepting a $20,000 speaking fee from the RT news company. Has anyone noticed that Ben Bernanke routinely takes $200,000-plus speaking fees in many foreign countries whose interests are not identical to ours and no one is persecuting him.


Likewise, the insane idea that it is malfeasant for high public officials to speak to Russian officials, or for the president to share sensitive strategic information with them, especially about genuine mutual enemies such the various Islamic jihad armies. Since when is that beyond the pale? Well, since January of this year when the Democrat Party ordained that members of the Trump transition team were forbidden to speak to Russian diplomats at the highest level. Do you suppose that, in the hothouse of Washington, incoming foreign policy officers of Obama’s government had no conversations with foreign diplomats between the election of 2008 and Obama’s inauguration? The idea is laughable.

Even more disturbing to me personally, as someone who registered as a Democrat back in 1972, are the disgraceful and dangerous ideas emanating from the university world, which is universally dominated by the Left. For example, the recent movement on several campus to re-segregate student housing by race — in the name of “diversity and inclusion.” This is a species of doublethink that would make George Orwell gasp, and I have yet to hear of a college president or dean who dares to object. The sanctioning of this deranged hypocrisy is shaping a generation that could easily turn into political monsters when they eventually come into power — and that coming-to-power may coincide with much more desperate economic conditions on the road ahead.


Not long ago, the Dem-Progs’ mouthpiece The New York Times ran a front-page story (a video, actually, on their Web edition) titled A Gender Fluid Mother’s Day, featuring a man pretending to be a woman reading to children. Notice that The Times’ official link actually says “mothers-day-gender-drag-queen-story-hour.” I didn’t make this up. It’s part of the newspaper’s long campaign to erase the boundary between the sordid and the normative, and to ram it down the public’s throat as good medicine. Doesn’t the newspaper of record have better things to devote its front page to? Are there not other issues of public life more urgent than valorizing drag queens? And to what end are they campaigning for this? A utopian extinction of sexual categories?


The party of the right, the Republicans, have made themselves hostages to the marginal personality of Donald Trump, who prevailed over a cast of Republican empty suits in the pathetic and appalling primary contests of last spring. The Republican party has not demonstrated that it has the dimmest idea what is going on “out there” in the very flyover districts its minions and flunkies pretend to represent, or that they believe in anything not cynically calculated to bamboozle the economically immiserated classes left behind by their deliberate asset-stripping approach to the public interest. Since the very get-go of Trumptopia, it appears that the Golden Golem of Greatness will finally sink the Republican Party — or perhaps just drown it in Grover Norquist’s famous bathtub.


My own guess is that in last-ditch desperation, the Republicans will not just abandon the president but actively join his adversaries on the other side to drive him out of the White House.


And then, rightly, wrongly, or foolishly, you will see the immiserated former working class actually take up arms against the government for toppling their hero, and that will be the end of the fake faux-financialized economy that ought to be the real news you’re not reading about in The New York Times.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

On Gold, Dollars, & Bitcoin
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
May 26, 2017 9:20 PM



Authored by Paul Brodsky via Macro-Allocation.com,
We have been bullish on gold – the barbarous relic; King Dollar – the modern hegemon; and Bitcoin – the crypto currency investors love to hate. One might say our feet have been planted firmly in the past, present and future. (We may not have three feet, but let’s go with it.) Are we hedging our bets, being too cute by half, or is there a cogent rationale that unifies bullishness for money forms most would consider incongruous and at-odds with each other?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...526_gold_0.jpg
The short answer is we like:

1) gold, because central banks around the world own it and are buying more, ostensibly to devalue their fiat currencies against it someday, after they are forced to hyper-inflate in order to reduce the burden of systemic debt service and repayment;

2) the dollar, because dollar-denominated financial markets are broader and deeper than any other market and because the Fed is years ahead of other major central banks when it comes to normalizing policy and maintaining bank solvency (i.e., other fiats are in worse shape), and;

3) Bitcoin, the borderless digital currency that is already being perceived as a better store of value than gold and all fiat currencies, and potentially a more expedient means of exchange too. All three should win in different ways.
It may be easier to accept this discussion by first reminding one’s self that monetary regimes come and go every fifty years or so. The last transition was in 1971 and the world is due for another. We have a high level of conviction that the evanescence of the current global monetary system is rooted in sound economics and already has been firmly established. A global monetary reset is necessary and likely.

To understand why we must break down money into its two main components: a means of exchange and a store of value. When it comes to using money in exchange for goods and services, fiat currencies have it all over gold and crypto currencies presently. That’s because governments demand taxes be paid with their fiat currencies (legal tender), forcing producers and labor to demand compensation in those currencies. As a result, banking, payment systems and all goods and service channels are set up to use fiat-sponsored currencies.

When it comes to a store of value, however, the factors of production may choose to save in whatever form of money they want. If the general perception is that government-sponsored, bank system-created fiat currencies will have to be greatly diluted in the future so that systemic debts can be serviced and repaid, then savers will migrate to money forms with capped floats, like gold and Bitcoin.

Prior to 1971, if a major government-sponsored currency was threatened with dilution, global sovereigns and savers and producers would exchange that currency for gold at a fixed exchange rate to the dollar. Or, they could simply exchange that currency for another currency less likely to be diluted. In the current regime, all economies are highly levered and all fiat currencies must be greatly diluted in the future. It comes down to timing and we think the US dollar is the best positioned of all major fiat currencies. That said, it will eventually have to be diluted too and will lose value in gold and Bitcoin terms.


As mentioned above, gold is still owned by the world’s major treasury ministries and central banks. (In fact, it is effectively the only asset on the Fed’s balance sheet that is not someone else’s liability.) If US or global economic growth were to fall enough, or contract, and central bank monetary and credit policies were to fail to stimulate positive growth, then the value of all outstanding sovereign, household and corporate debt (and bank and bondholder assets) would become stressed.

The Fed would have no choice but to devalue dollars against its other asset – gold. Other central banks would either follow suit or go along with a coordinated plan to fix their currencies to the dollar (i.e., a new Bretton-Woods agreement). If this were to happen the price of gold in dollar terms would rise by as much as five to ten times current levels, in our view. (We arrive at this magnitude of change by taking the level of bank assets needed to be reserved and then using the Bretton Woods formula for currency valuation, base money divided by gold holdings.)


The new gold price would reflect a level at which gold holders would be willing to exchange their gold for the diluting currency. This dynamic is basically what happened in another form with US interest rates in 1980/1981. US treasury yields were forced higher by the Fed (22 percent to 15 percent along the inverted yield curve), a level at which trade partners like OPEC would accept dollars with a floating exchange rate.


Finally, Bitcoin. The BTC/USD exchange rate has gotten a lot of notice lately because it has almost doubled in the last month (se chart below)...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...526_BTC1_0.jpg
To listen to financial media commentary, the extraordinary move must be the result of unsophisticated financial rubes looking to get rich quick on the latest tulip fad.

We disagree. While the dollar price of BTC may drop significantly any time as it reflects people’s understanding of dynamic global economic and monetary conditions and of Bitcoin itself, we are highly confident the exchange rate will appreciate dramatically from current levels over time.


To be sure, faith in the flexible exchange rate fiat monetary system remains strong in G7 economies and those that actively trade with them. But major currencies require continued faith in perpetual growth without recessions and that highly leveraged, irreconcilable balance sheets will never have to be diluted.


Meanwhile, access to Bitcoin takes only internet connectivity, it is free to store, and there is no need to hide it traveling across borders. Bitcoin, itself or as a proxy for all crypto currencies, is quickly becoming a more reliable and accessible store of value for 5 billion people across the world residing in economies without major currencies, strong central banks or stable pegs.


The store-of-value benefit is beginning to make itself clear to wealth holders in developed economies too, those becoming aware of the need for future fiat currency inflation by monetary authorities.


Those unfamiliar with crypto currencies tend to fear bubble bursting outcomes. While this fear is understandable given its newness, complexity, past volatile market action and lack of a central or sovereign regulator, it is not reality-based. Bitcoin cannot be successfully hacked due to its underlying block chain recordkeeping system, which documents every transaction and every sequential custodian in the chain (all anonymously to the world). No one can create Bitcoins outside its system or sell Bitcoins that do not exist.


Further, Bitcoin’s float cannot be diluted without the express agreement of 51 percent of all Bitcoin holders. Bitcoins are widely dispersed across the world and there is no central authority with a political agenda. It is inconceivable why Bitcoin holders would agree to being diluted anytime soon.


At a $50 billion total market valuation, of which Bitcoin is about $30 billion, crypto currencies have almost incalculable appreciation potential vis-à-vis fiat currencies. They should gain significant market share for store of value purposes, and this could be sped up if payment systems adopt Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, or another crypto currency as a global means of exchange. After all, global fiat money amounts to nearly $100 trillion.


Many of us who have toiled over the years as professional investors are deluded with the explicit or subconscious expectation that the perception of wealth and markets will someday revert to what they were five, ten or twenty years ago. They will not, in our view. Yes, this time IS different (as it always has been). Our money will change (as it always has).


Given the highly leveraged state of the current monetary regime, the most dominant variable for future wealth maintenance and creation, in our view, may not be asset selection but rather money selection. Something to think about...

MY FIRST POST ON THIS THREAD

Have a GREAT WEEKEND....

 

1. Post 1
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Edit
5. First Post: Dec 3, 2016 10:30pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 2,844 Posts | Online Now

Good day fellow traders on Forex Factory. I have been trading Forex for over 10 years now and with the incredible movements on a monthly basis which has been caused by the intervention efforts of the world's central banks trading today is much different trading before 2008. Thus RISK MANAGEMENT must be a priority for any serious forex currency trader. You should never RISK more than 5% of your trading capital on any one trade plan. I also strongly suggest that you never trade more than 20% of your total trading capital at anytime. Example - If you are trading $50,000 in US Funds NEVER have more than 20% or $10,000 US Dollars on your various trade plans always using the 5% rule for risk on each trade plan being used.

The Money Flow Trading Method is based each trading day on Risk On or Risk Off which means are the markets heading down or heading up. I use the DOW to determine this each day. When the markets head down and we have Risk Off the money flows into US Dollars first and then the money is parked usually into US Bonds so the bonds go up and the yield goes down. Money also flows to USD/JPY. I will give more explanations when the forex markets reopen on Sunday. If you have any comments or questions please post them on this thread. Tomorrow we have two important events the most important being the referendum in Italy.

The results will move the markets whichever result we see. This is a Fundamental Fact and that combined with Technical Indicators as to Support and Resistance along with investor perception of the meaning of the results short term will lead the direction of the market. I will be thinking of going short on USD/JPY depending on the results of course and Risk being off.

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...ter-is-coming/

The Fourth Turning’s Neil Howe Warns: We Are In The 1930s, “Winter Is Coming”
Via Mauldin Economics,


From the Balkans to the US, walls are going up, not down, according to demographer and The Fourth Turning author Neil Howe.
Speaking to a packed crowd at Mauldin Economics’ Strategic Investment Conference in Orlando, Howe said we are reliving many of the same trends and changes of the 1930s.


Faith in Democracy Is Fading
“Worldwide, people are losing trust in institutions,” he said. “Trust in the military, small business, and police is still there. But trust in democracies, media, and politicians is dropping.”

“When was the last time we saw these changes and the rise of right-wing populism?” he asked. “The 1930s.”


Howe’s statement is borne out of a June 2016 Gallup poll. When poll takers were asked how much confidence they had in institutions in American society, the results were troubling.


Just 15% said they had a “great deal” of confidence in the US Supreme Court. Banks trailed behind at 11%, followed by the criminal justice system (9%), newspapers (8%), and big business (6%).


Meanwhile, just 16% expressed a “great deal” of confidence in the presidency, with that number plummeting to 3% for Congress.

What Does This Mean for the Future of the West?
In his keynote, Howe shared his forecasting logic:
“My method is to step back and realize one thing: There is something we know about the world in 20 years’ time. The people who live there will be all of us, 20 years older and playing a different role. I call this ‘looking along the generational diagonal.’”


The critical thing to remember about the current crisis period is that what comes next will be an era in which there is a new order.
According to the Strauss-Howe generational theory, as this new order takes root, individualism declines and institutions are strengthened.

“History is seasonal, and winter is coming,” Howe has said. But after winter, comes spring.


As the American Revolution was followed by calm, as the Civil War was followed by reconstruction and a gilded age, and as the Great Depression and World War II were followed by an age of peace and prosperity, so too will this crisis period be followed by a calm, stable era.


It’s simply a matter of time.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Iran's Shockingly Honest Reaction To Trump's Visit To Saudi Arabia
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
May 27, 2017 5:05 PM



Authored by Darius Shahtahmasebi via TheAntiMedia.org,
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...527_trump1.jpg
While Donald Trump was in Riyadh, raving incessantly about the over-hyped Iran threat, Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif was trolling America’s foreign policy establishment. He advised Trump to discuss with Saudi Arabia how to avoid another 9/11 atrocity rather than making baseless claims against Iran.

Zarif said:
“[Trump] must enter into dialogue with them [the Saudis] about ways to prevent terrorists from continuing to fuel the fire in the region and repeating the likes of the September 11 incident by their sponsors in Western countries.”
He added:
“You will find out who really knocked down the World Trade Centre because they have papers out there that are very secret. You will find it’s the Saudis, you will find that is the case.”


As the Independent has noted:
“Most of the 19 terrorists who murdered nearly 3,000 people in New York in 2001 were Saudi citizens and there have [sic] repeated accusations that members of the Saudi hierarchy were complicit in the attack.” [emphasis added]


Foreign Policy, among many other mainstream outlets, has documented many instances of reported Saudi government officials’ role in the 2001 terror attack — and even President Trump has promulgated these claims.


As Anti-Media has pointed out multiple times, the U.S. government cannot claim the moral high ground in combating terrorism while signing multi-billion dollar arms deals with the birthplace of radical Islam (not to mention, one of ISIS’ core sponsors). In this context, the Iranian foreign minister’s advice to Donald Trump is actually quite honest.



However, what was really stunning about the Iranian reaction to Trump’s sword-dancing visit to Saudi Arabia was its outright warning to the Saudi Kingdom.


Mohammad Hashemi Rafsanjani, a leading member of the Iranian parliament’s Expediency Council, claimed these multi-billion dollar arms sales may ultimately backfire on the Saudi regime. Rafsanjani warned that one day, the Saudis may end up turning these weapons against the Saudi royal family.

“We have seen it all before. The Saudis are spending billions on arms which they don’t have the capacity to absorb. At the same time they are facing rebellion at home they are trying to hide and a costly war in Yemen,” Rafsanjani said, according to the Independent.


Drawing a parallel with recent Iranian history, during which the U.S. was very friendly with the Middle Eastern nation while it was under the rule of Shah Reza Pahlavi, a brutal, U.S.-installed dictator, Rasfanjani stated the following:
“The Shah, too, spent billions of dollars buying arms from America, he too had capacity problems. We had 65,000 Americans in Iran, most of them in the armed forces. But then came the revolution and the weapons were used against him and his regime.



“We watch what is going on in Saudi Arabia and I think the fate of the Saudi royal family will be the same as that of [the Shah’s dynasty] the Pahlavis. There is less and less space in the world for absolute monarchies like the Saudis”. [emphasis added]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Chris Martenson: The Federal Reserve Is Destroying America
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
May 27, 2017 4:00 PM



Authored by Chris Martenson via PeakProsperity.com,
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0170527_PP.jpg
Perhaps I should start with a disclaimer of sorts. Yes, I realize that the people working at the Federal Reserve, as well as the other central banks around the world, are just people. Like the rest of us, they have egos, fears, worries, hopes, and dreams. I'm sure pretty much all of them go home each night believing they are basically good and caring individuals, doing important work.


But they're destroying America. They might have good intentions, but they are working with bad models. Ones that lead to truly horrible outcomes.


One of the chief failings of central banks is that they are slaves to an impossible idea; the notion that humans are free to pursue perpetual exponential economic growth on a finite planet. To be more specific: central banks are actually in the business of promoting perpetual exponential growth of debt.


But since growth in credit drives growth in consumption, the two are concepts are so intimately linked as to be indistinguishable from each other. They both rest upon an impossibility. Central banks are in the business of sustaining the unsustainable which is, of course, an impossible job.

I can only guess at the amount of emotional energy required to maintain the integrity of the edifice of self-delusion necessary to go home from a central banking job feeling OK about oneself and one’s role in the world. It must be immense.

I rather imagine it’s not unlike the key positions of leadership at Easter Island around the time the last trees were being felled and the last stone heads were being erected. “This is what we do,” they probably said to each other and their followers. “This is what we’ve always done. Pay no attention to those few crackpot haters who warn that in pursuing our way of life we're instead destroying it.”

The most compassion I can drum up for central bankers right now is to observe that they really do have an impossible job; and their training has been simply too narrow and dogmatic for them to detect the gaping, obvious flaws in their world views. They never studied energy resource issues. Nor did they have to take any behavioral psychology classes that would have explained to them how deeply unfair economic practices are socially corrosive. Nor any history classes that would expose how such actions proved ruinous when they were applied in previous societies.

But here we are. The fact that the central bankers are either accidentally ignorant or purposely too lazy to explore the wider world of ideas is not one you can ignore any longer. Real consequences are coming and there’s no ducking them. We’re all in this big canoe of life together and the Fed and our political officials are exhorting us to paddle faster towards the roaring falls ahead.

You need to understand this. If you want to have any chance of navigating the future successfully, you have to understand what they are doing, how they are doing it, and why it will fail. If you don't take the time to sort out the mechanisms and implications...well, good luck. You’re going to need it.

For those who prefer to rest their future prospects on Knowing instead of (misplaced) Hoping, read on.
How The Fed Gives Billions Of US Taxpayer Money To Foreign Banks
Out of many truly maddening sins committed by the Fed, perhaps the most glaring of late is its practice of handing billions and billions of dollars of US taxpayer money to big foreign banks.

I explain the process in this short video:


The summary of the video is this: the Fed is now paying interest on so-called ‘excess reserves’ held at the Fed. Those 'excess reserves' include a huge chunk of money held there by foreign banks who are only too happy to receive 1% on their holdings from the Fed given that their own central banks are paying 0%, or even negative rates.

The money that the Fed pays these foreign banks is deducted from the amount remitted to the US Treasury at the end of each fiscal year.

It’s this simple: foreign banks are being paid billions of US taxpayer dollars and not one single person in the US got to vote for or approve of that action.

Let me repeat that: billions and billions of US taxpayer money is being sent to boost the profits of foreign banks. And there’s not a single thing a voting citizen can do about it.

The decision to do this has been made unilaterally by unelected people for reasons they are under no obligation to either share or even have audited by the public. I wonder if Detroit wouldn’t mind getting several billion dollars to use however it wishes, courtesy of the Federal Reserve? Or the permaculture movement? Or jobs training programs?


I’m 100% certain any of these -- or a thousand other candidates -- would be a better use than handing foreign big banks more US taxpayer money.


What The Heck Else Is The Fed Up To?
I'm going to guess that very few of you were aware of the Fed's multi-billion annual giveaway to foreign banks before you watch the video above. If you're like me, once you learned what's going on, it's hard not to start wondering: What the heck else is the Fed doing that I don't know about?


We here at PeakProsperity.com are particularly concerned about closely monitoring our central bank's next actions, as we believe their policies are creating the greatest wealth transfer of all time -- from the hard-earned savings of the public, and into the pockets of an elite few. (More on our conclusions can be read here).


As I said above, if you want to have any chance of navigating the future successfully, you have to understand what they are doing and how they are doing it.

Which is why PeakProsperity.com is producing the upcoming webinar, The End of Money, which will bring together David Stockman, Axel Merk, G. Edward Griffin -- experts on the Federal Reserve, global currencies and financial markets. During this 3-hour event, you'll hear their latest intelligence and forecasts and be able to ask each speaker questions directly. It all takes place on June 7th, and those interested can learn more about the webinar here.


But, even before the webinar's revelations, there's plenty of worrisome recent activity by the Fed you need to be aware of, right now.

In Part 2: Understanding The Fed's Endgame Is Key To Protecting Your Wealth, we reveal the additional clandestine steps the Fed is performing in the shadows to separate the American people from their hard-earned wealth, and place it in the pockets of the bankers and their cronies. In most instances, it's a case of doing exactly the opposite of what it is publicly promising.


As with the above video, very, very few people are aware of what the Fed is truly up to. But it's critical we learn, as the knowledge we gain explains a lot about both the failure of today's bubblicious asset prices to sell off, and about just how worried the Fed actually is about draining cash from the financial markets lest it create a cascading meltdown. It's only by developing an understanding of the endgame currently in play that the concerned investor can make informed choices for protecting their wealth.


Click here to read the report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Carson Block Says "Laws Of Economics" Dictate China Will Face "Day Of Reckoning"
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by Tyler Durden
May 27, 2017 5:40 PM



Muddy Waters Research founder Carson Block believes that China’s overleveraged economy will eventually face a “day of reckoning.” He just can’t say when.


During an interview with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker, Block, who made his name betting against shady Chinese companies trading in the US, explains how the Chinese government’s massive stimulus has led to a potentially destabilizing explosion of corporate-debt growth in the world’s second-largest economy – and why the Communist Party won’t be able to contain the fallout once its twin bubbles -asset and credit - finally burst.


“I’ve felt for many years that it’s a giant asset and credit bubble. Under the old orthodoxy, that couldn’t be sustained for long, but if you look around the world, the ECB and the Fed are helping to sustain frothy asset values. Japan hasn’t made sense for a while.”

“Ultimately there will be a day of reckoning, I know that. I just can’t say if it’ll be two months, two years or 20 years.”

But even though traders who bet against the Chinese yuan last year made a tidy profit, Block believes betting against the Hang Seng Index isn't the best option for shorting China because the impact of PBOC intervention is too unpredictable on a macro scale. Betting against the Chinese stock market in aggregate could end up being a “widow maker” play like shorting Japanese government bonds was for several years.


Instead, investors should bet against individual firms or sectors – a less-risky option, in Block’s view.

“If you start with the macro thesis and say there are a lot of credit problems in China then start looking at industries that might be canaries in the coal mine or companies that might be canaries in the coal mine, then you might get it right.”

However, speculators should be mindful of a trait common among Chinese companies: There are many that somehow manage to keep going even though the financials suggest that they’re doomed. Understanding which companies have the guanxi – a Chinese term meaning business and political connections – to enable them to continue operating, and which companies don’t, is the most challenging aspect of betting against Chinese firms, Block asserts.

But what about the bull case for China? The argument that the Chinese government will be able to pull off a “soft landing” while successfully transitioning from a manufacturing powered to a services-powered economy is predicated on the view that Xi Jinping and the Communist Party exercise absolute control over the economy, and have near-unlimited resources to help them thwart an economic collapse.

Block says this assumption, common among westerners, is an example of “cognitive dissonance” often applied to the PBOC. Even though many westerners believe it to be true, China’s central bank isn’t some all-powerful monolith, Block contends.

“These guys are no more capable than our policy makers in the US have been. The US government has the most power in the world to avert a major economic catastrophe.”
Speaking of the crash of 2008…

“If [the Fed and Congress] weren’t able to prevent it, it’s because the laws of economics, the physics of economics eventually catch up.”

“I’m willing to bet that these guys can’t escape the laws of economics in perpetuity.”

The PBOC’s April decision to deleverage unleashed turmoil in the country’s financial markets, causing Chinese stock and bond markets to erase hundreds of billions of dollars in value.

Beijing announced Friday morning that it has moved the goal posts once again and introduced a new “counter-cyclical factor” to its mechanism for managing the yuan’s exchange rate with the dollar - an effort to curb volatility. The move sent the yuan to three-month highs, but traders are still unclear about how this new mechanism works and what exactly was changed.


The Chinese yield curve experienced a “double inversion” this week when three year yields eclipsed five year yields and seven year yields eclipsed 10-year yields. At the same time, rising base funding costs and interbank credit risk concerns have pushed banks' cost of borrowing beyond the rate they charge customers for loans for the first time in history. The one-year Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate has exceeded the Loan Prime Rate, the first time this has happened since the latter was introduced in 2013.X
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Meanwhile, China's total debt-to-GDP has reached all-time highs.
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Moody’s Investors Service sent offshore yuan tumbling earlier this week after it downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, saying that the outlook for the country’s financial strength will worsen, with debt rising and economic growth slowing. This leaves the world's hoped-for reflation engine rated below Estonia, Qatar, and South Korea and on par with Slovakia and Japan.

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: There can be no more doubt where this is going. The HOUSE OF CARDS caused by the FED and the other Central Banks will COLLAPSE...

The only question left that KNOW ONE KNOWS including the Central Banks led by the BIS is when ?

When is very soon and could well be during the last 7 months of 2017. We can ALL see it unfold and those that have come to my thread and read some of my postings and KeepCalmfx's postings hopefully understand better than most including the so called experts...

Good day

Hope Everyone is doing well.

Here are the charts.