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Getting dirty with fundamentals (long term trades and intraday)

  • #21
  • May 23, 2017 10:02am May 23, 2017 10:02am
Great discussion on here about the $.

Here is my little 2 cents on the $dollar

1. Markets firmly believes in June rate hike = FOMC should hike in June lest they cause unnecessary shock to the system. Probability of two more hikes is still up in the air.
2. $ is really oversold now considering we are talking of a rate hike in June.

DXY at what I think is around key support:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DXY_@_support.png Size: 66 KB


I think the market is keen to move on from Trump palaver.. all things being equal (no more Trump nonsense, and no downside surprise in FOMC minutes) the $ may rally from here on into month end...

I am thinking of shorting this useless and stubborn NZDUSD... I mean the rally is utterly baseless and without reason!! Wheeler wants a weaker NZD right? So why the rally?!
  • #22
  • May 24, 2017 12:59am May 24, 2017 12:59am
Robert Heller, former Federal Reserve governor, says the base case for the Fed raising interest rates in June has not changed despite political headlines.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000621188
  • #23
  • May 25, 2017 2:31am May 25, 2017 2:31am
some more on the $ story

Q1 consumer spending was worse than expected. They expected spending to pickup in March but it didn't so Q1 GDP closed as weak. I have been doing research in the retail space and have found several articles where there was a noticeable pickup in April and the MOM retail sales stamp of 0.4 is evidence of a pickup. With more people in work an increase in spending is almost a sure thing - a reduction in spending has a lower probability. Anecdotally, consumer savings has been ticking up breaking the high of last year. Many people will start feeling more comfortable about spending once they have a growing savings account, i certainly do. Another piece of evidence is the non manufacturing which printed an above expectations number of 57.5 vs 55.8 expected. There is other evidence although this is sufficient to show a pickup which increases the probability of greater than expected numbers for Q2 and an up-print in cpi as a result. The current sentiment based on the fed minutes to hold off on further rate hikes to me seems like the market is solely focusing on the fed and less on the underlying data. The fed is generally behind the curve and the last hike looks to be missing in current pricing which has been driven by risk off events and price has failed to recover the levels of the last hike. I am still confident in my long term $ position but now i am starting to look at where i can gain on short term opportunities when the market stops focusing on Trump and notices the elephant in the room
  • #24
  • May 25, 2017 3:11am May 25, 2017 3:11am
Quoting EcoTrader
some more on the $ story Q1 consumer spending was worse than expected. They expected spending to pickup in March but it didn't so Q1 GDP closed as weak. I have been doing research in the retail space and have found several articles where there was a noticeable pickup in April and the MOM retail sales stamp of 0.4 is evidence of a pickup. With more people in work an increase in spending is almost a sure thing - a reduction in spending has a lower probability. Anecdotally, consumer savings has been ticking up breaking the high of last year. Many people...
Did you learn how to judge fundamentals through Experience or did you get educated somewhere on them ?
Trade
  • #25
  • May 25, 2017 3:46am May 25, 2017 3:46am
what do you think is going to happen to the market Friday and Saturday because of the G7 meeting ?
  • #26
  • May 25, 2017 4:26am May 25, 2017 4:26am
Quoting Arnoud
{quote} Did you learn how to judge fundamentals through Experience or did you get educated somewhere on them ?
Both. You need to start by learning how economies work and the relationship of all elements and the type of data (leading, coincidence, lagging). You also need to dive deep into the central banks and understand what their concerns are and policy direction. All the above is available in books and central bank speeches, minutes, and balance sheet.

Experience comes when you can fit this all together and align it with market sentiment. The objective is to find deviations in current pricing to give the trade potential. Mapping the output of this with economies on the opposite end gives you the strong - weak pairing to trade off the back of news
  • #27
  • May 25, 2017 4:27am May 25, 2017 4:27am
Quoting daxpriceact
what do you think is going to happen to the market Friday and Saturday because of the G7 meeting ?
I don't expect it to move markets with the agenda being discussions of current issues like terrorism.
  • #28
  • May 31, 2017 8:46am May 31, 2017 8:46am
Trading polls

The only time a poll has a prolonged effect on the market is when it is backed by basket of other polls with similar predictions. The yougov poll for the general election covers 300th of 1 percent of the population making the margin for error more pronounced. I never trade these on the release but prefer to get in after the release and overlap the trade with other news data. Today was a nice example of this when EU data printed worse cpi numbers. When the market realised the poll isn't significant backed by weak EU data the trade was on, albeit in the US session.
  • #29
  • Jun 1, 2017 3:53am Jun 1, 2017 3:53am
New undertaking being planned.

I am going to start building a semi automated trade system that technically trades off the back of manual inputs derived off macro analysis, market sentiment, inter market analysis. The objective here is to provide the system with strong weak mapping inputs and weighting factors and it will apply strategies on that basis. Going to have to learn mql but that shouldn't be difficult given my professional skill set
  • #30
  • Jul 3, 2017 2:57am Jul 3, 2017 2:57am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Both. You need to start by learning how economies work and the relationship of all elements and the type of data (leading, coincidence, lagging). You also need to dive deep into the central banks and understand what their concerns are and policy direction. All the above is available in books and central bank speeches, minutes, and balance sheet. Experience comes when you can fit this all together and align it with market sentiment. The objective is to find deviations in current pricing to give the trade potential. Mapping the output of this...
hi bro,
economies that u mean, is it macroeconomies or both micro and macro economics? did u calculated it too in math model or just the theory only? i used to study economy in school, but already forget almost all of them
how did u separate which fundamentals that work for intraday and which one for long term?
sorry if i use some strange english coz english is not my mother tongue
  • #31
  • Sep 7, 2018 2:02am Sep 7, 2018 2:02am
Quoting EcoTrader
New undertaking being planned. I am going to start building a semi automated trade system that technically trades off the back of manual inputs derived off macro analysis, market sentiment, inter market analysis. The objective here is to provide the system with strong weak mapping inputs and weighting factors and it will apply strategies on that basis. Going to have to learn mql but that shouldn't be difficult given my professional skill set

What is your professional skill set?

I have done these in the past , but never got round to using them. It is easier to go to a professional coder and get job done for $400.
  • #32
  • Sep 7, 2018 2:56am Sep 7, 2018 2:56am
Quoting loozers
{quote} What is your professional skill set? I have done these in the past , but never got round to using them. It is easier to go to a professional coder and get job done for $400.

programmer (java, c#,scala, python) and data specialist (big data and open source tech)
  • #33
  • Jan 2, 2019 7:54pm Jan 2, 2019 7:54pm
Thank you for this thread.
I do believe its the right direction, but institutional still have an edge over us retail and i learned it the hard way.
Most of us can't afford to shell out 2k a month for a Bloomberg terminal, yet it seems to be the only solution to actual make a buck in trading and not just gamble.
Trading is all about time, being the first riding the wave (at least not the last)
I'm currently using a squawk, it is relatively fast but how to filter the news that matters from the ones that don't ?.
i lose money for a living
  • #34
  • Last Post: Jan 2, 2019 8:12pm Jan 2, 2019 8:12pm
Always like reading your stuff, subscribed.
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