Technical Analysis Fallacy

Hello 4for4,

Thank you for the specification. As I mentioned, if it workable for you, then it's fine and keep it going.

I would not go into details, although this TAF thread is rather not about being engaged longer than a week, I presume. Mostly traders here are internalizing dancing on 5 min/ 15 min/ 1H charts having in mind a bigger time frame picture 4H, D1, etc. A battle lasting more than 2 - 3 days is already a protracted one, IMO. On another hand, if you are in game over weeks, what then is your SL (distance in pips) in terms of your MM pain threshold (Leveraged? position size multiplied by SL pips)?

If it were a tiny or comfortable size, I would book my profits better twise or thrise within a daylight and would not spend larger troops for weeks lasting battles. It's my individual style/ MM, reflex and response based on my personal live practising.

Maybe someone who is trading starting D1 and higher time frames charts could contribute better to the discussion.

Best regards, Exnav

I don't define SL in terms of percentage or amount or pips as my trading account is just a fraction of my trading capital ... Being margin-called or forced-cut is no problem as long as I don't inject more just to "save" a trade ...
I determine SL by whatever market is giving at that time by identifying existing peak/valley ... If the account can't handle it at the time, I'll just pass the trade ... And if it can, then I'll just allocate the account to cover the risk and use the remaining balance for other possible trades if any ...

Horrific terror news from the UK.
Hope all our UK friends are fine, and may god bless everyone.

Regards

for the victims and their families.

Sandpiper story... by FTI

All squared and Stand By, Stand By:

Anyone tracking the cryptocurrency front lately? Bitcoin in particular, this month, have risen banging obscene figures and demand... R - rated obscenity.

Regards

everytime i think back upon fti's life lessons, i can't help but feel that he is incredibly insightful.

flowing with the situation, flowing with life, thats why fti says, trading is the most natural thing, sometimes people are unable to flow, because of imposition of bias, which causes them to become rigid, and stop flowing.

I do agree. The Thread may be helpful if one understands the value.

Best regards, Exnav

yep, agreed, and sometimes, a little bit of parallel from one's life helps us understand what fti is trying to tell us, and im beginning to think, its not fti being cryptic, its that maybe we are not perceptive enough to understand him.

because today, i had a small epiphany about flowing with a situation, the nature of flowing, and then i realized, what fti was saying was not cryptic as i tried to describe it and came up with the same words.

Before pushing a trigger button one should think: who is a target, maybe yourself?
The targeting action requires a thorough preparation.
Trader might have a privelege - you need not to force yourself.
Once engaged, a cool instinctive response reflex is in charge.

Best regards, Exnav

I find the flow a hard concept - FTI's own example at start of thread may seem unclear on what flowing means here - in the example he removes men when price going long but he does not go long just waits and gets back in when trend goes back short again only attacking when terrain is very favourable - so flowing is not such a clear thing to me - is it defending the trend - what does it actually mean? I do agree that if I am long and the market clearly runs short then I need to turn my head around - is that flowing? Flowing suggests something being internalised but that could lead you to going long or short with any strong push or pull - being a pig. Also so long as I money manage well even being a pig can work out? Flowing term confuses me.

Alex

Hello Alexandria,

Just to very briefly put my own understanding.
Bulls AND Bears might be winners. Pigs are...
Most secure trend to stay with (steady as she goes), would be that of a Daily chart - regarding major Rescuing contingency. Although, there might be some other counter Tsunami considerations.
Flowing and trending on 5/ 15 min (steady as she goes) - your own decision. Either you got in Trend or you are rescuing on counter impulses/ PB, and then: BE or Attacking (due to higher time frame trend). It is: Dance Flow, Watch Size, Stay Nimble.

by FTI.

For me, it's a matter of response reflex. Flow - rescuing or attacking, adding for winners...

Enjoy you trading!
Best regards, Exnav

P.S. Trending, flow - your reading of a current terrain. Flowing with 5/ 15 min or 1H, 4H, D1 trend. Your choice. Presumably, respective Technical Analysis stuff is a part of your Market Knowledge.

Well, think of the 2nd lesson, the running battlefield mindset. When price run against you, afew reasons, 1 it's pullback, you right on trend, 2 market counter impulse against you. Fti gets in when short against lower tf pullback(?) to this helps to time his entry in line with the next push, so he put scout to feel timing for when the next move might turn his way. If you see his attack picture at the very early start of the thread, where he used fibo to enter position, there were 3 sequences, 1 trading the down wave, 2 trading the retrace, 3 trading the impulse down wave.

The flow simply means to assess, if current situation looks good for attack, need for rescue, or is a bad position cut and flip or committed high level rescue. It is the management of the situation onwards trying to make good moves in line with the market gyration which is flowing with the market, when you have prior troops in the markets.

Similar to what exnav mention above.

As well as within your books limits and time capacity.

Sometimes, market goes nowhere but keep whipping up and down, confused, if you stay on light skew, but trade it in and out, you can make some good money too, just that the dance forces you to be a pig. Good or not, to be honest, my view is that as long as the risk is managed properly I think it's ok.

Let's say if hourly is up trend, currently price is pulling back downwards, but the speed is slowing down, and 5mins is showing some support freshly created, higher lower but not yet higher high, and you deploy scout, then price makes a new low, but it swings back into support indicting stop sweeps. Would you buy more to average your costing? Or cut it when it breaks the low? Essentially the feel the trend helps you understand the picture better, and what strategic options available for you to manage your current exposure better given the understanding of the picture is the flow aspect.

Contrast that with rigid methods which is like break out and buy or sell, it does not flow but impose a bias of momentum must happen which makes it unable to flow with the markets.

Part of it may be also that his training as market maker, where he tries to make market as it retrace so he use those moves to enter, then when market move back in impulse, rubber band snap back, near the start of impulse he begin attack, then when feels like move fizzle off some, he takes some profits off, then slowly take more and more out till left scout, if you still want leave scout in that is.


Lesson 2 quote
" Knowing when to fight and when not to fight;
There are paths that he must not travel.
There are armies, which he should not attack.
There are fortified cities, which he should not besiege.
There are territories the he should not contest."

"Water shapes its course according to the nature of the ground
over which it flows;
the soldier works out his victory in relation to the foe whom he is facing.

Therefore, just as water retains no constant shape,
so in warfare there are no constant conditions.

Disciplined and calm, to await the appearance of disorder and hubbub amongst the enemy:
--this is the art of retaining self-possession."

Think back to lesson 2 again that is the essence of flow, not simply be of price flowing but of your actions which flow with price, with the market. Notice the part of retaining self-possession. This implies it's not just price but also includes your actions to manage positions.

See the purple sequence on the chart shown below, notice -1 -1 quick succession, but then price thrust up, maybe reversal maybe shake out weak holders, let's see if price fades from the thrust up, signifying distribution, since -2 net, we still in scout skew, let it go down more, then if price accelerates, short more as attack, since if price continue down and we should be sufficiently near start of current swing, should be fairly good for attack skew to move in. See it's 1 1 1 2 15. 1 1 1 builds 3, spiral in 2 fibo rotate left, so now net 5 then high probability attack, 15 with skew of 5 to 15 which is 1 3 skew, so fti used multiple skews in this attack sequence.

gather thy rosebuds while ye may

Being with the flow can mean two things: (1) Waiting to get in the flow at some point in the future, or (2) Waiting for the flow to turn around and ride on it ...
If there's nothing else that experienced and novice traders should or could learn/realize is this: There's nothing the market can do but changing directions from the smallest tick-by-tick movements to the small minutes-hourly-daily swings, up to the bigger weekly-trends and monthly-cycles ...
In my opinion, learning to identify trend-reversal patterns will be a less-stressful and more-fruitful activity in the long term ...

Hi - yes I am happy with the trends etc - but I think FTI means to internalise it more else what is it about flowing.

Alex

FLOWING....

unconfined, smoothly, continuous, graceful and fluent.

regards

Phil.

I think what you have said above is more it - he means us to learn to internalise what we do as we follow the market to go with it when water force bursts strong we can attack - when it runs we can just jump on board or chop at once if against us - rushing waters - when it starts to trickle start taking some out - when it gushes again put some back - when the water is a messy wash then we would not get in to swim so leave it. Guess I need to think more on the water analogy.

I love your edits about his trading example - but he also puts his scouts in strategically I think.

Don't get me wrong I am happy with my general understanding of the thread - but I am now thinking more and more about stuff I did not quite understand - this is opening a whole world to me. This thread is very very deep.

Thanks my friend
Alex