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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #4,921
  • May 19, 2017 6:56am May 19, 2017 6:56am
Hi C12, really glad to see you posting again. I'm still very much a learner but this thread together with The magical mystery tour of the divine markets have really helped me get a better understanding of sup/dem and pa. This is all pretty inspirational stuff.
Can I ask what you were driving at in a post the other day showing 2 4h charts on UJ, one ny close, the other GMT?
  • #4,922
  • May 19, 2017 8:46am May 19, 2017 8:46am
Quoting finax
Hi C12, really glad to see you posting again. I'm still very much a learner but this thread together with The magical mystery tour of the divine markets have really helped me get a better understanding of sup/dem and pa. This is all pretty inspirational stuff. Can I ask what you were driving at in a post the other day showing 2 4h charts on UJ, one ny close, the other GMT?
Cheers finax

I'm in good place at the moment with my trading. It's like a light bulb has been switched on when it comes to my discipline side which is the only thing that has been holding me back.

It's good people are interested and maybe pick up a few ideas, but not necessarily doing the same thing since we're all different.

As for the UJ charts, look closely at the S/D zones on the H4 charts showed. Which one offered the cleanest levels out of GMT or NY close candles? Look closely at the very start of the session.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...52#post9868852
  • #4,923
  • May 19, 2017 8:58am May 19, 2017 8:58am
hmm, discipline, seems so easy when you write a trading plan, different story when the lights start flashing!

Now, you might freak out when you look at my chart but I run these two things next to each other, plain 4h and 15min with 4h overlaid so I don't really pay too much attention to the 4h candle per se, more what the price action achieves, what gets engulfed etc.
For me it would look the same with GMT and NY close.

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  • #4,924
  • May 19, 2017 9:16am May 19, 2017 9:16am
But to try and answer your question, if I were just looking at the 4h candles then the GMT version I think (?)
  • #4,925
  • Edited May 20, 2017 2:53am May 19, 2017 9:52am | Edited May 20, 2017 2:53am
Quoting finax
hmm, discipline, seems so easy when you write a trading plan, different story when the lights start flashing! Now, you might freak out when you look at my chart but I run these two things next to each other, plain 4h and 15min with 4h overlaid so I don't really pay too much attention to the 4h candle per se, more what the price action achieves, what gets engulfed etc. For me it would look the same with GMT and NY close. {image}
Looks good to me, although I would recommend paying a large amount of your attention on the H4 chart.

I've highlighted the PA (the two blue boxes) that are what I'd draw your attention to when watching the higher time frame. This is what gives you directional bias. I call these engulfs although not the classic "engulfing candle formations". Then you're looking further left and down for space.

Bear in mind this is chart in the context of a weekly supply zone, with the 2nd box after daily bear engulf had formed.

The 2nd blue box on H4 contains all the M15 PA in the right side of the chart.

Drawing all the doodling on an M15 chart (QM's, HH, LL, diamonds or flagpoles and things) I do think these might make the decision to trade a bit cloudy.

I like to start the day with the higher timeframe zones + PA and then work down to the H4 / H1/ M15 side by side charts to find an entry in direction solely based on PA and zones.
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  • #4,926
  • Edited May 20, 2017 6:00am May 19, 2017 2:00pm | Edited May 20, 2017 6:00am
Quoting finax
But to try and answer your question, if I were just looking at the 4h candles then the GMT version I think (?)
Just seems like cleaner PA on GMT H4 candles in most cases. I use FXCM as my H4 reference charts. The market appears to be using GMT (at least on H4). Daily I'm unsure.

Since I use H4 as my main reference chart then I want the clearest data possible.
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  • #4,927
  • May 20, 2017 5:53am May 20, 2017 5:53am
Thanks very much for your comments and advice, really appreciate it.
I am guilty of over complicating things so the mission going forward is to keep it simple. Will probably be damned less stressful!
  • #4,928
  • May 22, 2017 5:04am May 22, 2017 5:04am
Some scalps.
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  • #4,929
  • May 22, 2017 5:28am May 22, 2017 5:28am
Might be premature but that's enough atm.
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  • #4,930
  • May 22, 2017 10:35am May 22, 2017 10:35am
Top picked..
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  • #4,931
  • May 22, 2017 11:37am May 22, 2017 11:37am
An observation I see quite a bit when a supply / demand forms, price will often retrace back to the candle base straight away (usually to the pip).

Something to keep an eye on and it can happen across other time frames but I notice it a lot on M30. So technically not a "random" top pick here, there was a familiar structure to it..

The launch of the previous days move had the same pattern.

Some recent examples of it.
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  • #4,932
  • May 22, 2017 1:39pm May 22, 2017 1:39pm
Quoting C-12
An observation I see quite a bit when a supply / demand forms, price will often retrace back to the candle base straight away (usually to the pip). Something to keep an eye on and it can happen across other time frames but I notice it a lot on M30. So technically not a "random" top pick here, there was a familiar structure to it.. The launch of the previous days move had the same pattern. Some recent examples of it. {image} {image}
I have a question. Now i see you trade mostly EUR/USD not any other pairs while before you trade most of the major pairs. Do you feel tradin one pair is better because you can concentrate more on it and be more focused ? Does your results are better trading only one pair or they are the same as before when you were trading multiple pairs ?
  • #4,933
  • Edited 3:25pm May 22, 2017 2:03pm | Edited 3:25pm
Quoting teodosy87
{quote} I have a question. Now i see you trade mostly EUR/USD not any other pairs while before you trade most of the major pairs. Do you feel tradin one pair is better because you can concentrate more on it and be more focused ? Does your results are better trading only one pair or they are the same as before when you were trading multiple pairs ?
Yeah definitely.

I made more and faster pips trading multiple pairs, but i had no control. My head would sometimes start spinning, especially when news events (or the grind before news) and would lose the pips as fast as I got them!

I like the EU, just based on 5 years of watching it every day... If it's grinding then I can see what's going on M5 for a heavy scalp. Also with the DX means you've got double confirmation.

I've got 4 x 21 inch monitors dedicated to trading the EU intraday. This is is definitely overkill but I can see and react to everything.

If there's really nothing going on EU then I will still have a flick around the majors for something that looks ripe for a scalp.
  • #4,934
  • May 22, 2017 2:25pm May 22, 2017 2:25pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yeah definitely. I made more and faster pips trading multiple pairs, but i had no control. My head would sometimes start spinning, especially when news events (or the grind before news) and would lose the pips as fast as I got them! I like the EU, just based on 5 years of watching it every day... If it's grinding then I can see what's going on M5 for a heavy scalp. Also with the DX means you've got double confirmation. I've got 4 x 21 inch monitors dedicated to trading the EU intraday. This is is definitely overkill but I can see and react...
Does this mean that now you make less pips but more % gain based on the focus you got on one pair ? I started thinking pips does not count, only % gain count. I watch over 26 pairs and i see myself get very confused sometimes cause i have no focus.
  • #4,935
  • May 22, 2017 2:38pm May 22, 2017 2:38pm
Quoting teodosy87
{quote} Does this mean that now you make less pips but more % gain based on the focus you got on one pair ? I started thinking pips does not count, only % gain count. I watch over 26 pairs and i see myself get very confused sometimes cause i have no focus.
Yes that's exactly it.

In theory, you could actually risk 1 pip to get 2. If you do this consistently then you can grow an account risking 1% each trade and the win rate is over 50%... Not that I would recommend trying to do this.

So really the key is overall R/R and win rate over pip count and ultimately the bottom line.
  • #4,936
  • Edited 3:21pm May 22, 2017 2:52pm | Edited 3:21pm
Well here's today's EU. It was a very good setup.

H4 we had retest of old resistance that lined up nice with a M15 zone
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  • #4,937
  • Edited 3:13pm May 22, 2017 2:56pm | Edited 3:13pm
Then looking at H1 and M30 watching for the bull engulfings to form (this was the key PA)

Everything all lined up for the trigger to be pulled, almost like waiting for the light to turn green across all time frames.

Once H4 had engulfed then it was a case of just holding out for the full move to unfold (which I failed on)
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  • #4,938
  • May 22, 2017 3:52pm May 22, 2017 3:52pm
Couldn't take any trade today day time... late one on GBPUSD...
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  • #4,939
  • May 23, 2017 1:09am May 23, 2017 1:09am
Quoting tradeforlife
Couldn't take any trade today day time... late one on GBPUSD... {image}
Good catch.
  • #4,940
  • May 23, 2017 1:10am May 23, 2017 1:10am
Good job I got up early. Managed to catch the Frankie open.

Not sure this one needs much explaining.
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