Dear S.A.D. Traders,
something to smile about, and for some may be also something to think about.
I hope this post (and mostly the hoped reply and explanation) could help us all to get deeper in the nice way of reading Price.
It's Friday evening where I am, I am already enjoying the feeling of the weekend coming, some nice sounds in the headphones ( I know I am crazy, but I love to listen to youtube'ss Thunderstorm sounds while writing or studying Trading), Charts and Thinking about S/D Trading and this nice community.
Very nice.
There is a concept, or better a question, I would like to share with you, or better to ask for your opinion.
It may sound to the most as so easy, so just "naive" for all experienced traders, but I think that for anybody who, like me, needs to completely disassemble something just to understand how it really works, it may be interesting to better understand.
It is about the basis of Supply / Demand Trading: " Unfilled Orders ".
First of all I would like to say that in my poor and simple opinion we all, whatever methodology we use for Trading, look for Imbalances.
Some expect them at a S/R Level, some after some strenght or weakness signs, some when the RSI is diverging compared to the Highs and Lows, some when the Butterfly is at completion or Fibo at 78,6.
But at the end of the day, as Michael so often repeats, the only real Rule moving the Price, is Newton's Law of Inertia.
And that's the same principle that applies in the Whole Nature.
"An object in motion continues in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force."
So this is my thinking: we all look for several signs of Price arriving at a certain level, where we may expect "Unfilled Orders", that mysterious still remaining hidden unbalanced Star Wars Force ( still unfilled istitutional orders ), which will not only stop the previous speed, but even reverse the previous direction !
Ok, I like that, really, and objectively looking at charts it really, very often (more often than not, if you know what you really have to look for) works !
BUT: can anybody outthere explain me, why the heck I should expect unfilled orders at that level, if the previous strong imbalance created by the unfilled orders has already been slowed down, and even reversed, before getting again to that S/D Level ????
The only to me logically possible explanation is, that there are not unfilled orders anymore ! There will be NEW possible huge orders !
I try to explain my madness in terms of order flow, using a way that most real Traders can better read than words: a simple picture.
We see at 1) a Supply level, fantastic !
We know that at that point, the huge quantity of Sell orders didn't get filled, so it moved Price down. Perfect, clear as a diamond !
BUT a bit later, at 2), we see Price slowing down, reversing and starting moving up again towards the Supply level at 3) again !!!
So now my consideration is: when Price is at 2), the ONLY way to break the motion and even reverse IS (no other way in my mind) that all the previously UNFILLED ORDERS HAVE BEEN FILLED, and even more, the opposing orders (now buying orders) are getting more and more....
Am I saying something so crazy ?
Am I really not understanding the basic of reading Price ?
So, if those previous big orders, that moved Price so strongly down, are now already ALL filled... the only possible way for me to imagine that IT Traders may want to open new big orders at that level again, which may cause a new drop, is only that they wanted to fill a certain capital of orders at that Price, but actually couldn't.
So they want to "Try" again ?
Is this the basic of S/D Trading ?
I somehow know there must be something more than that....
And what about the Millions, previously unfilled at 1) and actually sold at a very lower Price ( somewhere between 1) and 2) ) ?
They just didn't get the planned Profit and start again from scratch, bringing again Price up where they wanted to sell before ?
May be S/D Trading could be: Satisfaction / Desperation Trading of unfilled IT Trader's orders ?
Moreover, if they have the power to move Price so Up and Down as much as they like to... why not just push it over the levels where everybody is expecting Price to react to, and after just sell into their Buy orders ( SL above the Supply zone ), more than the usual " safe " number of pips above the level ?
Please don't think that I am saying it is not a good methodology, completely the opposite instead.
I like it, therefore I am looking for a complete echography of every single aspect, because I "just" see that it works, but I want to know why.
Sorry for my river post, enjoy your weekend.
Soon I will be again here to disturb.
something to smile about, and for some may be also something to think about.
I hope this post (and mostly the hoped reply and explanation) could help us all to get deeper in the nice way of reading Price.
It's Friday evening where I am, I am already enjoying the feeling of the weekend coming, some nice sounds in the headphones ( I know I am crazy, but I love to listen to youtube'ss Thunderstorm sounds while writing or studying Trading), Charts and Thinking about S/D Trading and this nice community.
Very nice.
There is a concept, or better a question, I would like to share with you, or better to ask for your opinion.
It may sound to the most as so easy, so just "naive" for all experienced traders, but I think that for anybody who, like me, needs to completely disassemble something just to understand how it really works, it may be interesting to better understand.
It is about the basis of Supply / Demand Trading: " Unfilled Orders ".
First of all I would like to say that in my poor and simple opinion we all, whatever methodology we use for Trading, look for Imbalances.
Some expect them at a S/R Level, some after some strenght or weakness signs, some when the RSI is diverging compared to the Highs and Lows, some when the Butterfly is at completion or Fibo at 78,6.
But at the end of the day, as Michael so often repeats, the only real Rule moving the Price, is Newton's Law of Inertia.
And that's the same principle that applies in the Whole Nature.
"An object in motion continues in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force."
So this is my thinking: we all look for several signs of Price arriving at a certain level, where we may expect "Unfilled Orders", that mysterious still remaining hidden unbalanced Star Wars Force ( still unfilled istitutional orders ), which will not only stop the previous speed, but even reverse the previous direction !
Ok, I like that, really, and objectively looking at charts it really, very often (more often than not, if you know what you really have to look for) works !
BUT: can anybody outthere explain me, why the heck I should expect unfilled orders at that level, if the previous strong imbalance created by the unfilled orders has already been slowed down, and even reversed, before getting again to that S/D Level ????
The only to me logically possible explanation is, that there are not unfilled orders anymore ! There will be NEW possible huge orders !
I try to explain my madness in terms of order flow, using a way that most real Traders can better read than words: a simple picture.
We see at 1) a Supply level, fantastic !
We know that at that point, the huge quantity of Sell orders didn't get filled, so it moved Price down. Perfect, clear as a diamond !
BUT a bit later, at 2), we see Price slowing down, reversing and starting moving up again towards the Supply level at 3) again !!!
So now my consideration is: when Price is at 2), the ONLY way to break the motion and even reverse IS (no other way in my mind) that all the previously UNFILLED ORDERS HAVE BEEN FILLED, and even more, the opposing orders (now buying orders) are getting more and more....
Am I saying something so crazy ?
Am I really not understanding the basic of reading Price ?
So, if those previous big orders, that moved Price so strongly down, are now already ALL filled... the only possible way for me to imagine that IT Traders may want to open new big orders at that level again, which may cause a new drop, is only that they wanted to fill a certain capital of orders at that Price, but actually couldn't.
So they want to "Try" again ?
Is this the basic of S/D Trading ?
I somehow know there must be something more than that....
And what about the Millions, previously unfilled at 1) and actually sold at a very lower Price ( somewhere between 1) and 2) ) ?
They just didn't get the planned Profit and start again from scratch, bringing again Price up where they wanted to sell before ?
May be S/D Trading could be: Satisfaction / Desperation Trading of unfilled IT Trader's orders ?
Moreover, if they have the power to move Price so Up and Down as much as they like to... why not just push it over the levels where everybody is expecting Price to react to, and after just sell into their Buy orders ( SL above the Supply zone ), more than the usual " safe " number of pips above the level ?
Please don't think that I am saying it is not a good methodology, completely the opposite instead.
I like it, therefore I am looking for a complete echography of every single aspect, because I "just" see that it works, but I want to know why.
Sorry for my river post, enjoy your weekend.
Soon I will be again here to disturb.
