Stocks - specifically the liquid energy sector

It is actually fairly easy to value a company if you can predict what the figures will be. The trouble is with high growth companies is it is very hard to know the inputs

I only posted that article because as the guy said, for Tesla and other stocks which might become world beaters - it's about the story, which is why traditional valuations are confounded... So long as the story continues to make sense the stock might still go higher

With respect to what you said about stocks being pieces of paper. It is sort of true in th way most of us interact with the market, but owning stocks is a certificate of ownership. You have a contractual claim on the earnings and assets of a company, so business fundamentals matter.

I disagree. It is my belief that the only thing you 'have' with stock ownership is a voting-right, unless the company articles specifically confer anything else there is no claim to anything else. In order to 'grab' a piece of the earnings you must first get the board to decide that a dividend will be paid, and only large ownerships can introduce a motion for AGM consideration that anything should be paid to share holders.

I don't know if the same holds for non-UK companies.

You can disagree if you want but it isn't a matter of opinion I'm afraid. Owning shares in a company does give you a claim on the company earnings and assets, they are contractual property right enforceable by law.

Most people will only experience these rights when it comes to liquidiation of company, where the proceeds of assets are distrubted among shareholders after bond holders get their share.

Although we have as shareholders contractual rights, we are only a small part of a giant cog, collectively it is the sum of shareholders votes which decide company direction.

I think what you mean is that although we have 'ownership rights', we are too 'small fry' to make our opinion heard, and that means we don't really have control? I would agree with that to some extent. Which is part of the reason why choosing a company with decent management is important.

Ok. My knowledge of company Law is limited so I will leave it at that.

How to spot a supply zone.....

Well, this has had an interesting result.


27 October 2016

Amerisur Resources Plc

OBA Pipeline Operational

Highlights
· ARCH has issued the decree to Petroamazonas EP for the operation of the OBA system
· Line has been filled with oil and exports at an initial rate of 1,500 BOPD have begun
· Flow rates will be increased significantly in the weeks ahead
· Company has guaranteed right to throughput of up to 5,000 BOPD
· Discussions ongoing to increase this significantly
· Cash opex costs per barrel expected to reduce from approximately $26 to under $15
· Nine fully funded wells to be drilled in OBA cluster of assets in next 15 months
· OBA has been constructed and commissioned on budget of $18m

From a recent IEA report "It takes between three and six years to get new conventional oil fields producing."

So those of us waiting for gold from the Falklands deep-sea projects.......

Sometimes an investor who you respect takes a position opposite to your own, and you should take note, especially when that person is jim chanos... he had to say this about north american shale:

"We remain bearish on the business model of the North American exploration and production companies. Whether at $100 oil and $4 natural gas, or half of those prices, the US frackers generate no free cash flow...Higher production, lower production - it doesn't matter."


..and if you look at regulatory filings he is right but he has the wrong end of the stick. Does he seriously believe that shale has no ability to generate free cash flow at 100$? It is very clear that capex spending adjusts dramatically to current oil prices, as companies either choose to only maintain current production, or deploy cash to expand production.

If the price of oil is 40$ the amount of profit is small and the capex is going to be maintenance capex only. But if the price of oil doubles to $80 these companies can churn a lot of profit and their capex dramatically increases to gobble as much market share as they can.

In other words, looking at free cash flow as a proxy for profitability or the ability of that company to survivor in any given year makes absolutely no sense in the context of shale oil. Chanos doesn't seem to get that the ability to post negative or positive free cash flow is a choice by management not a weakness of the underlying business.

Take continental resources, q3 2016 capex is 255 million, q3 2015 capex was 635 million, capex is 60% lower after 1 year as a result of decreasing oil prices.

Today's punt. In for 2000 shares, now waiting to see if it is only a scam.....

So, it's a definite 'maybe'!
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/e.../13075315.html

Premier Oil today issues a trading statement, it seems that leverage is under control and new projects are delivering ahead of targets.

RNS Number : 9561T
Premier Oil PLC
12 January 2017

This announcement has been determined to contain inside information

PREMIER OIL PLC

("Premier" or "the Group")

Trading and Operations Update

12 January 2016

Premier today provides the following Trading and Operations Update ahead of its 2016 Full Year Results which will be announced on Thursday 9 March 2017.

2016 Highlights
·
Record production of 71.4 kboepd, up 24% on 2015 and in line with previously upgraded guidance
·
Opex per barrel of $15.7/bbl
·
Estimated capex of $690 million, below guidance of $730 million
·
Net debt of $2.8 billion as at 31 December 2016, reduced in Q4 as anticipated
·
Cash and undrawn facilities of around $600 million


Outlook
·
2017 production guidance of 75 kboepd, before any contribution from Catcher and adjusted for lower Solan profile
·
Catcher on schedule for start-up later this year with total capex now forecast at $1.6 billion, 29% lower than sanctioned estimate
·
Approval of Tolmount development concept expected shortly, will provide next phase of growth
·
Increased equity interest to 25% in large Zama prospect (Mexico); expected to spud early Q2
·
2017 capex guidance of $350 million (including abandonment spend)
·
Net debt will continue to reduce at current forward curve


Refinancing
·
All substantial commercial terms have been agreed with the Coordinating Committee of the RCF Group and representatives of the other Private Lenders; long form term sheet at advanced stage
·
Publication of full details of terms on circulation of the long form term sheet to lenders which is expected shortly

Tony Durrant, Chief Executive, commented:
"Premier achieved a strong operational performance in 2016, resulting in record production and the successful integration of the ex-E.ON portfolio. The Catcher project continues to progress well and will provide another step change in production, generating enhanced, tax-free cash flows for the Group. Our debt refinancing is nearing completion which, together with the improving commodity price environment, will enable us both to accelerate debt reduction and to progress future growth projects."

I can't remember what brought these to my attention, but after some research I have bought into IGAS.

Research available here....

What's the guidance for earnings for some of these companies you have been looking at? Are they anticipating positive earnings in the next year?

This is a penny-stock, at the moment. Its price has crashed from £1-ish to zilch. One of the major share holders wanted them to sell assets to cover debts, instead they raised new capital, cleared almost all the debt, and have new prospects to exploit. Their annual results must be imminent and that will yield earnings figures etc. along with guidance (presumably) for near-term business performance.

Oops...

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/e.../13224155.html

"Petrofac Limited ("Petrofac" or the "Company") has been notified by the Serious Fraud Office (the "SFO") that it has commenced an investigation into Petrofac Limited and its subsidiaries. The Company believes that this is in connection with the investigation into Unaoil. As previously disclosed, Petrofac engaged Unaoil, a Monaco based company, for the provision of local consultancy services primarily in Kazakhstan between 2002 and 2009. The Company is cooperating with the authorities. Ayman Asfari, Chief Executive Officer, and Marwan Chedid, Chief Operating Officer, have been questioned under caution by the SFO."

guys i am new to stock trading and i want a broker that will offer a demo account

I trade stocks with no leverage ... in fact 'trading' might be over-stating it a bit.

I stumbled upon a possible scandal after Petrofac announced via the LSE (and maybe other places) that they were cooperating with the Serious Fraud Office.
After a bit of digging, which didn't take long, I found this article....
http://www.theage.com.au/interactive...the-world.html

Looking at the list of companies involved it is apparent that somebody is going to burn.
Either it will be TheAge/Huffpost or it will be a large number of 'facilitators' in a number of companies ... which would include the top board members.

Premier Oil announced today that they have discovered a new field off the coast of Mexico.

Premier owns a 25% share in a billion-barrel discovery, which if truly a billion barrels is worth $10bn to Premier at today's miserable $40bbl pricing.
Depending upon how much it costs to get out of the seabed, there will be a few billions in cash after clearing all the company's debt (which they will not do, but hey...).

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/e.../13291786.html

Do you own them E? Thought of you when I read the headline earlier