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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #4,881
  • May 14, 2017 11:58am May 14, 2017 11:58am
Quoting Calculated Risk
Hey guys. This thread is way too long for one person to read - even in several sittings. I don't object to doing the hard work but in order to know whether it meets my trading criteria and personality could those of you who've been using this for a reasonable length of time provide some stats: % Wins Average pip gain Average pip loss number of trades per day/week/total average trade length pairs traded Best session to trade etc. I've been trading for over a decade but am now at a stage where I want to reduce screen time as I realize over the years...
Unfortunately there's no "system" to be found here.

I'm freestyle trading using eye balls, supply and demand zone and price action (mostly engulfing candles) across multi time frames and it definitely takes a while to pick up and requires discipline.

What you're looking for is definitely possible though, and there are many styles of S/D trading to choose.

If you just trade 3 or 4 hours per day and cherry pick 1 or 2 solid entries then you will be good to go.

You'll also learn how to read the market like a true champ rather than following some "system" that has no meaning to price movement.

My win rate is about 50% but I'm a crazy undisciplined gun slinger and often take 30+ entries in a session.
  • #4,882
  • May 14, 2017 12:05pm May 14, 2017 12:05pm
I would start with the basics, Sam Seiden style limit order trading to begin with so you get familiar with the zones.

After a while you can use PA / engulfing entries once you get more confident with price movement.
  • #4,883
  • May 14, 2017 12:12pm May 14, 2017 12:12pm
Most of the majors usually serve up a zone like this on a daily basis (either on H1/M30/M15 or M5)

Just hunt them down, stick a limit on and see how price reacts.

You can do the same on Daily/H4 if you prefer a slower pace.
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  • #4,884
  • May 14, 2017 12:32pm May 14, 2017 12:32pm
Another couple on UJ. Once you've got confidence in the Daily/H4 direction then these are usually easy pickings.
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  • #4,885
  • May 14, 2017 12:34pm May 14, 2017 12:34pm
And a decent zone on GU to watch for early next week.
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  • #4,886
  • May 14, 2017 2:39pm May 14, 2017 2:39pm
I've been asked about zone (limit order trading) on lower time frames and which ones to choose since there are so many.

Let's look at USDJPY as an example.

Weekly - Just tapped into supply

Daily - Engulfing candle

So with this in mind we definitely would want to take the supply's that pop up on the lower TF's
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  • #4,887
  • May 14, 2017 2:45pm May 14, 2017 2:45pm
Looking on M15 there was the first solid supply that showed up (this then created a thick H1 zone after the retest)

At this point any high quality M15 or M30 supply (depending which gave the cleanest level) was a slam dunk.

Now I've recently been trading the fresh engulfs but you can also hit these with limit orders.

Actually, it's probably less risky and time consuming to do it this way.
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  • #4,888
  • May 14, 2017 2:57pm May 14, 2017 2:57pm
If you catch just one of these per day (risking 1% and taking a 2:1 or 3:1 R) then that's all you need.

I've no idea why I make things so difficult by grinding it out with so many entries, but this is all about to change....
  • #4,889
  • May 14, 2017 3:03pm May 14, 2017 3:03pm
Quoting C-12
If you catch just one of these per day (risking 1% and taking a 2:1 or 3:1 R) then that's all you need. I've no idea why I make things so difficult by grinding it out with so many entries, but this is all about to change....

You are right.. that is where we need to be more disciplined... set a percentage target and once achieved, stop trading for the day... if you can stop, then you have moved on one level upper...
  • #4,890
  • May 14, 2017 3:40pm May 14, 2017 3:40pm
Quoting tradeforlife
{quote} You are right.. that is where we need to be more disciplined... set a percentage target and once achieved, stop trading for the day... if you can stop, then you have moved on one level upper...
I've spent entire weekends going over my trading plan only for it to be completely out of the window by 8am on Monday morning...

The daily profit and loss stop out is vital but I think imposing a limit on opened trades is another.

Even as a scalper I don't think you need to take any more than 3 entries in a day. Even skipping days completely is fine if the action isn't there.

If you trade with a sniper rifle rather than a blunderbuss you will surely find the best entries.

This is why I'm scratching around for an EA to give me no option but to behave myself.
  • #4,891
  • May 15, 2017 12:09am May 15, 2017 12:09am
Quoting C-12
I've been asked about zone (limit order trading) on lower time frames and which ones to choose since there are so many. Let's look at USDJPY as an example. Weekly - Just tapped into supply Daily - Engulfing candle So with this in mind we definitely would want to take the supply's that pop up on the lower TF's {image} {image}
Quote
Looking on M15 there was the first solid supply that showed up (this then created a thick H1 zone after the retest). At this point any high quality M15 or M30 supply (depending which gave the cleanest level) was a slam dunk. Now I've recently been trading the fresh engulfs but you can also hit these with limit orders. Actually, it's probably less risky and time consuming to do it this way.

This post/example helped me to understand your thought process more clearly. I like zone trades more. The engulf trade might be a bit more complicated for me.

Thanks C-12
  • #4,892
  • May 15, 2017 12:41pm May 15, 2017 12:41pm
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} {quote} This post/example helped me to understand your thought process more clearly. I like zone trades more. The engulf trade might be a bit more complicated for me. Thanks C-12
How about something like this? I wasn't around all day but looks a pretty straight forward smooth trade.
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  • #4,893
  • May 15, 2017 1:11pm May 15, 2017 1:11pm
Started my trading today and below is the first trade today...took it at morning before starting to office and left it to hit tp or sl...
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  • #4,894
  • May 15, 2017 1:29pm May 15, 2017 1:29pm
Quoting tradeforlife
Started my trading today and below is the first trade today...took it at morning before starting to office and left it to hit tp or sl... {image}
Nice, I spotted that engulf last night on the H1 but had to be in work early today to fix the crappy Wannacry virus that hit our network....

As for EU, we're now in daily supply but the H4 zone is higher. Price could turn here I wouldn't be rushing in to short just yet. Let PA work it's way through.
  • #4,895
  • May 15, 2017 1:32pm May 15, 2017 1:32pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Nice, I spotted that engulf last night on the H1 but had to be in work early today to fix the crappy Wannacry virus that hit our network.... As for EU, we're now in daily supply but the H4 zone is higher. Price could turn here I wouldn't be rushing in to short just yet. Let PA work it's way through.

thanks, what is your view on USDCAD, C12?
  • #4,896
  • May 15, 2017 1:32pm May 15, 2017 1:32pm
Two charts to ponder on USDJPY

1st one is GMT

2nd one is NY close.
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  • #4,897
  • May 15, 2017 1:38pm May 15, 2017 1:38pm
Quoting tradeforlife
{quote} thanks, what is your view on USDCAD, C12?
Bearish PA on daily but now bullish H4 engulf off old resistance.

Bearish overall bias but will see if price can retract up to the base of Friday's sell off and watch for PA.

Bit of a tricky pair to trade for a while..
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  • #4,898
  • May 15, 2017 1:53pm May 15, 2017 1:53pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Bearish PA on daily but now bullish H4 engulf off old resistance. Bearish overall bias but will see if price can retract up to the base of Friday's sell off and watch for PA. Bit of a tricky pair to trade for a while.. {image}

Thanks mate..
  • #4,899
  • May 15, 2017 3:02pm May 15, 2017 3:02pm
Usd/Cad
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  • #4,900
  • May 15, 2017 3:31pm May 15, 2017 3:31pm
Quoting teodosy87
Usd/Cad {image} {image} {image} {image}
Yep, it looks firmly bearish on all time frames. Even the H4 candle is now rolling over.

If it was a during a daytime I'd take the rollover PA but my plan states no new end of session positions.
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