Wait, or you will be slaughtered!
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- May 12, 2017 10:19am May 12, 2017 10:19am
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- Post #1,282
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- May 12, 2017 1:23pm May 12, 2017 1:23pm
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"Pride always comes before destruction...." -Proverbs 16:18
FTMO 100K Funded Account Month#2 All Time Return:
na
- Post #1,283
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- May 12, 2017 1:26pm May 12, 2017 1:26pm
hy expo33 can you please send me your template
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- Edited May 13, 2017 12:04pm May 12, 2017 1:44pm | Edited May 13, 2017 12:04pm
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I'm wondering if anyone else's computer is getting lag when having multiple charts up with the WW indicator on it because my computer is lagging really bad. Really frustrating considering it's only about 18 months old. Anyways, I am using the indicator to scan pairs then manually drawing the wave so I can track multiple pairs without having the computer freeze up. Anatomy of a trade before an important news event. This morning's US CPI and retail sales prints could potentially move the market 30-50 pips. Maybe it won't but that's not the point....
Indeed, my hope for a dissapointing US data print this morning came true and as a result price dropped right into my fill zone. Three of five positions were filled.
Here's the updated look:
USD/JPY 30MIN CWW
Stripping away the trade levels etc to see the simple concept behind the fill level zone. We can see the initial price drop, then the attempt to bounce, then the second little price wave down to the confluence level.
This trade may still be a loser in the end but as a trader I've done my homework and my job by being prepared in advance. In the context of Wolfe wave theory, I have used my personal filtering system to preset a high probability zone of potential reversal. The local demand zone (orange circle) is quite obvious. The fact that it perfectly matches up with the 141 BC extension FIB, the .50FIB of the larger move, and a Gann fan level, well, that may be a coincidence, but I don't believe that for a second. To me a price chart is like a living organism that's inner workings are controlled by human behavior, and I believe that behavior can be modeled by the mathematics of geometry, time and space.
"Pride always comes before destruction...." -Proverbs 16:18
FTMO 100K Funded Account Month#2 All Time Return:
na
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- May 12, 2017 2:24pm May 12, 2017 2:24pm
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hy expo33 can you please send me your template
I had to remove the original template from post #1 because I reached the limit for attachments.
Here is the original template.
NOTE: The Wolfe wave indicator in this template is the 8.5 version. You can change it and use the 9.6 or 9.6.1 version if you want, they are on post #1. Also, I find that with all of the indicators, especially the newest Wolfe wave version, the meta4 can start lagging a bit. So you can modify it as you like
Here is what it will look like:
"Pride always comes before destruction...." -Proverbs 16:18
FTMO 100K Funded Account Month#2 All Time Return:
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- Post #1,286
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- Edited at 5:42am May 14, 2017 5:11am | Edited at 5:42am
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Hope everyone is enjoying their weekend.
Thought I'd get this week started by going through my pre-trade filtering process. There is no right or wrong way to do this. The process should be personal, but it needs to be done every time you take a trade.
Ok, so you put the WW indicator on a chart and you see a potential WW. In our example, the wave is pretty steep, a little rough around the edges, nothing too special. Just one of dozens and dozens of WWs that are forming during the week. So, why would we choose to trade or not trade this wave? Well, we can't answer that question without going through our personal filtering process.
Below is the potential wave without any filters. Just the naked wave detected by the indicator.
NZD/CAD 1H POTENTIAL CWW - NAKED
THE FILTERING PROCESS
I always check 4 things no matter what when I detect a potential wave. Again, each trader has their own set of tools. I have many, but these 4 are checked before EVERY trade.
1) Previous S/R
2) The BC extension FIB
3) The FIB retracement levels from the larger, most recent move
4) The Gann Fan
In our example, I've taken all of the structure trend lines off the chart along with the zig zag just so that it's easier to see the filters and comments. I started naked with only the two blue triangles that outline the potential wave. Then I added the filters
Here is the final chart with analysis below:
NZD/CAD 1H POTENTIAL CWW - WITH FILTERS
1) Notice the previous S/R. What sticks out most to me is the fact that price seems to accelerate when it's passing through resistance levels 1 and 2. So it stands to reason IF price breaks through resistance level 1, then it may accelerate towards level 2. Notice each time price moved through this zone, there are pretty large candles. This is a good thing. We want price to reach point D. Even better if it's accelerating. Remember the physics theory that Bill Wolfe quoted: "for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction". And that's what we want. We want that elastic band to stretch to the limit (point D) before running out of momentum, then all of that stored up energy can be released in the opposite direction, the direction of our trade.
2) Point D is exactly the 261.8FIB extension of BC
3) Point D is exactly the 61.8FIB retracement level of the biggest and most recent move
4) The 2x1 Gann fan line exactly intersects at point D. Remember Gann fans bring in the element of time. The only way point D can intersect that Gann line perfectly is if the CD leg of the wave has the same number of candles as the AB leg (again time is of the essence here) Remember the indicator draws the waves assuming it will have perfect candle symmetry between AB and CD. It looks like about 14 candles for the AB leg so price would have to reach point D in about 14 hours from market open to be exactly in that D circle. (That would be pretty amazing if you ask me). Still, a few hours less or more and it would be fairly close.
NOTE: Resistance level 2 is basically in line with our 2 confluent FIB levels.
Sorry if this seems like an endless rant, but I feel it's absolutely vital to trading these waves successfully. I hope traders will take the time to look at the chart and compare it to what I'm saying. Look at the first chart. Looks like random price action. Put WW theory and a filtering system in place and you get chart 2. Now price doesn't look quite that random.
Also note, I will be scaling in a bit early as I like to do. Probably 5 positions 2-3 pips apart. With seemingly so much resistance heading into point D, I like to make sure I get at least a few small positions filled.
Having gone through all of this analysis, the market could open up tomorrow and price could just drift lower and completely invalidate this wave before it actually comes to fruition. Or, price could make it to D and then an OPEC member could unexpectedly make a statement that they are increasing supply, thus oil price plummets, thus sending NZD/CAD price 100 pips higher blowing up our trade. Both scenarios are irrelevant to our plan. We can't predict if price will go lower tomorrow and we can't predict what an OPEC member will unexpectedly say. What we can do, is locate a high probability zone where price may reverse based on Wolfe wave theory coupled with a well thought out filtering system.
I hope this post will open trader's eyes to the possibilities. You are only limited by your imagination and your willingness to do the hard work. Be meticulous, be patient, and be confident that your trading endeavors will become reality.
Remember, CONFLUENCE IS KING!
Safe and prosperous trading going forward friends.
-Kurt
Thought I'd get this week started by going through my pre-trade filtering process. There is no right or wrong way to do this. The process should be personal, but it needs to be done every time you take a trade.
Ok, so you put the WW indicator on a chart and you see a potential WW. In our example, the wave is pretty steep, a little rough around the edges, nothing too special. Just one of dozens and dozens of WWs that are forming during the week. So, why would we choose to trade or not trade this wave? Well, we can't answer that question without going through our personal filtering process.
Below is the potential wave without any filters. Just the naked wave detected by the indicator.
NZD/CAD 1H POTENTIAL CWW - NAKED
THE FILTERING PROCESS
I always check 4 things no matter what when I detect a potential wave. Again, each trader has their own set of tools. I have many, but these 4 are checked before EVERY trade.
1) Previous S/R
2) The BC extension FIB
3) The FIB retracement levels from the larger, most recent move
4) The Gann Fan
In our example, I've taken all of the structure trend lines off the chart along with the zig zag just so that it's easier to see the filters and comments. I started naked with only the two blue triangles that outline the potential wave. Then I added the filters
Here is the final chart with analysis below:
NZD/CAD 1H POTENTIAL CWW - WITH FILTERS
1) Notice the previous S/R. What sticks out most to me is the fact that price seems to accelerate when it's passing through resistance levels 1 and 2. So it stands to reason IF price breaks through resistance level 1, then it may accelerate towards level 2. Notice each time price moved through this zone, there are pretty large candles. This is a good thing. We want price to reach point D. Even better if it's accelerating. Remember the physics theory that Bill Wolfe quoted: "for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction". And that's what we want. We want that elastic band to stretch to the limit (point D) before running out of momentum, then all of that stored up energy can be released in the opposite direction, the direction of our trade.
2) Point D is exactly the 261.8FIB extension of BC
3) Point D is exactly the 61.8FIB retracement level of the biggest and most recent move
4) The 2x1 Gann fan line exactly intersects at point D. Remember Gann fans bring in the element of time. The only way point D can intersect that Gann line perfectly is if the CD leg of the wave has the same number of candles as the AB leg (again time is of the essence here) Remember the indicator draws the waves assuming it will have perfect candle symmetry between AB and CD. It looks like about 14 candles for the AB leg so price would have to reach point D in about 14 hours from market open to be exactly in that D circle. (That would be pretty amazing if you ask me). Still, a few hours less or more and it would be fairly close.
NOTE: Resistance level 2 is basically in line with our 2 confluent FIB levels.
Sorry if this seems like an endless rant, but I feel it's absolutely vital to trading these waves successfully. I hope traders will take the time to look at the chart and compare it to what I'm saying. Look at the first chart. Looks like random price action. Put WW theory and a filtering system in place and you get chart 2. Now price doesn't look quite that random.
Also note, I will be scaling in a bit early as I like to do. Probably 5 positions 2-3 pips apart. With seemingly so much resistance heading into point D, I like to make sure I get at least a few small positions filled.
Having gone through all of this analysis, the market could open up tomorrow and price could just drift lower and completely invalidate this wave before it actually comes to fruition. Or, price could make it to D and then an OPEC member could unexpectedly make a statement that they are increasing supply, thus oil price plummets, thus sending NZD/CAD price 100 pips higher blowing up our trade. Both scenarios are irrelevant to our plan. We can't predict if price will go lower tomorrow and we can't predict what an OPEC member will unexpectedly say. What we can do, is locate a high probability zone where price may reverse based on Wolfe wave theory coupled with a well thought out filtering system.
I hope this post will open trader's eyes to the possibilities. You are only limited by your imagination and your willingness to do the hard work. Be meticulous, be patient, and be confident that your trading endeavors will become reality.
Remember, CONFLUENCE IS KING!
Safe and prosperous trading going forward friends.
-Kurt
"Pride always comes before destruction...." -Proverbs 16:18
FTMO 100K Funded Account Month#2 All Time Return:
na
- Post #1,287
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- May 14, 2017 7:12am May 14, 2017 7:12am
thanks, very good post 
One question tough, how do you personally draw the fan angles?
Do you use High/lows of a move or do you look for the angles to fit previous price bounces, or just 45 degree?
In the last case, do you square time and price before (by adjusting the scale)?
One question tough, how do you personally draw the fan angles?
Do you use High/lows of a move or do you look for the angles to fit previous price bounces, or just 45 degree?
In the last case, do you square time and price before (by adjusting the scale)?
the 3rd wave is the crowd's wave
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- May 14, 2017 9:27am May 14, 2017 9:27am
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- Post #1,289
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- May 14, 2017 12:12pm May 14, 2017 12:12pm
- Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Member | 2,586 Posts
thanks, very good post
Yes, I draw the 45 degree line from the beginning of an impulse wave that I deem has relevance to area of interest.I think drawing the Gann fan is subjective to some extent. In the NZD/CAD example it's pretty obvious where it should be drawn. In many cases, however, the last impulse wave isn't so distinct. Many times I draw multiple fans just to see if any patterns emerge. I also like to check the higher time frames.
I'm still a novice when it comes to Gann fans but from what I've researched, it's hard to truly square time and price on the Meta 4 platform. I use the Fibonacci fan tool and add all of the levels manually with the corresponding converted angles. The fan doesn't stayed squared when changing time frames or when you're zooming in and out but it will remain squared when you go back to the original time frame and when you zoom back to where you originally drew the fan.
These are the converted angles with corresponding levels that I manually set in the Fibonacci fan tool
"Pride always comes before destruction...." -Proverbs 16:18
FTMO 100K Funded Account Month#2 All Time Return:
na
- Post #1,290
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- May 14, 2017 12:27pm May 14, 2017 12:27pm
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"Pride always comes before destruction...." -Proverbs 16:18
FTMO 100K Funded Account Month#2 All Time Return:
na
- Post #1,291
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- Edited at 1:44pm May 14, 2017 1:31pm | Edited at 1:44pm
- Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Member | 2,586 Posts
I stumbled upon this WW on the EUR/NZD weekly.
Let's break it down. Two things I notice on the weekly chart:
1) Point D near previous S/R
2) A doji followed by a hanging man (pretty bearish in my opinion considering the time frame)
EUR/NZD WEEKLY CWW
Here's the daily chart with a look at some Gann fans. Possible price containment to the upside. Imo, not totally conclusive. This is a volatile pair so 100 pips either way on the bigger time frames is very possible.
Here's a look at the FIB analysis on the daily chart. Imo, very powerful. Three FIB levels coincide closely with point D. All within 15 pips of each other on a daily time frame for this pair? That's something that should raise one's eyebrows.
1) 61.8FIB retracement from most recent and pertinent big move. (red)
2) 241FIB extension of BC (yellow)
3) 200FIB extension of XA (green)
And the icing on the cake is a retest of the completion point of a bearish Quasimodo pattern (up and under pattern). Here's a look at that on the 4H time frame
Longer term fundamental perspective: I think NZs economic issues are way less complex than the Euro economy and should be easier to manage. I also believe that Mr. Wheeler of the RBNZ has been forthright in his rhetoric. He's basically done exactly what he said he would do. And of course, the carry trade for larger entities would likely remain attractive going forward into 2018.
Imho, small positions with a fairly large SL could yield some big pips over the next couple of months
Let's break it down. Two things I notice on the weekly chart:
1) Point D near previous S/R
2) A doji followed by a hanging man (pretty bearish in my opinion considering the time frame)
EUR/NZD WEEKLY CWW
Here's the daily chart with a look at some Gann fans. Possible price containment to the upside. Imo, not totally conclusive. This is a volatile pair so 100 pips either way on the bigger time frames is very possible.
Here's a look at the FIB analysis on the daily chart. Imo, very powerful. Three FIB levels coincide closely with point D. All within 15 pips of each other on a daily time frame for this pair? That's something that should raise one's eyebrows.
1) 61.8FIB retracement from most recent and pertinent big move. (red)
2) 241FIB extension of BC (yellow)
3) 200FIB extension of XA (green)
And the icing on the cake is a retest of the completion point of a bearish Quasimodo pattern (up and under pattern). Here's a look at that on the 4H time frame
Longer term fundamental perspective: I think NZs economic issues are way less complex than the Euro economy and should be easier to manage. I also believe that Mr. Wheeler of the RBNZ has been forthright in his rhetoric. He's basically done exactly what he said he would do. And of course, the carry trade for larger entities would likely remain attractive going forward into 2018.
Imho, small positions with a fairly large SL could yield some big pips over the next couple of months
"Pride always comes before destruction...." -Proverbs 16:18
FTMO 100K Funded Account Month#2 All Time Return:
na
- Post #1,292
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- May 14, 2017 3:18pm May 14, 2017 3:18pm
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- May 14, 2017 3:57pm May 14, 2017 3:57pm
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"Pride always comes before destruction...." -Proverbs 16:18
FTMO 100K Funded Account Month#2 All Time Return:
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- Post #1,295
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- Edited at 6:43pm May 14, 2017 6:01pm | Edited at 6:43pm
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- Post #1,296
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- Edited at 9:46pm May 14, 2017 7:02pm | Edited at 9:46pm
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"Pride always comes before destruction...." -Proverbs 16:18
FTMO 100K Funded Account Month#2 All Time Return:
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- Post #1,297
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- Edited at 12:53am May 15, 2017 12:42am | Edited at 12:53am
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I rarely trade AUD/NZD as price tends to be too choppy but I like this set up. Fundamentally, I think the 200 pip Aussie gain here is a bit overcooked. All because of the RBNZ keeping the rate the same in addition to some dovish rhetoric. I'm short at 1.08 off the retest of the 200FIB extension of BC which also matches up to the pip with the 61.8FIB from the larger wave down. Throw in a Gann level and the 1.08 round number and I can't resist Some would say a bull flag but perhaps it's a bull trap AUD/NZD 1H CWW {image}
Don't want to toot my own horn (actually I did play the trumpet in middle school), but just want to show how effective WW theory can be. We aren't trying to make any bold predictions about lasting trend reversals. All we are doing is capitalizing on a market structure that is out of balance with the physics and geometry of price. That may sound ridiculous to many professional traders but to each his own. All we are looking for is a 20-40 pip bounce. Then we can micro manage the trade and reassess the situation technically and fundamentally.
AUD/NZD 1H CWW
"Pride always comes before destruction...." -Proverbs 16:18
FTMO 100K Funded Account Month#2 All Time Return:
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- Edited at 3:12am May 15, 2017 2:13am | Edited at 3:12am
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"Pride always comes before destruction...." -Proverbs 16:18
FTMO 100K Funded Account Month#2 All Time Return:
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- Post #1,299
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- May 15, 2017 2:54am May 15, 2017 2:54am
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I stumbled upon this WW on the EUR/NZD weekly. Let's break it down. Two things I notice on the weekly chart: 1) Point D near previous S/R 2) A doji followed by a hanging man (pretty bearish in my opinion considering the time frame) EUR/NZD WEEKLY CWW {image} Here's the daily chart with a look at some Gann fans. Possible price containment to the upside. Imo, not totally conclusive. This is a volatile pair so 100 pips either way on the bigger time frames is very possible. {image} Here's a look at the FIB analysis on the daily chart. Imo, very powerful....
"Pride always comes before destruction...." -Proverbs 16:18
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- May 15, 2017 3:04am May 15, 2017 3:04am
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