DislikedI'm following this thread for a couple of months and I want to express my deepest gratitude to jnevins for keeping us updated with the weekly projections. Any opinions on the sunspot cycle? To me it seems to resemble the EURUSD 'mirror', US Dollar Index. Coincidence, or is there more to it? I've picked some well known wars and they seem to start at tops of the sunspot cycles. Back to the topic: Assuming my sunspot theory is correct, EUR/USD could at a bottom region of an upcycle on a yearly basis. What do you guys think? {image} {image} {image}Ignored
The second chart shows the DJIA daily data since 1885.
The third shows more recent activity since 1995
Finally the 4th shows a strong correlation with the low of the last cycle and the bottom of the DJIA.
Your observation that wars are more likely at cycle peaks is very interesting.... adding to your chart above, the 1990 peak coincided with the first US invasion of Iraq (The Gulf War) and arguably the beginning of the longest war(s) in US history. The 1950 peak could be marked with the Korean war. The 1970 peak is still Viet Nam as well as the late 1960's protests and social change. The 1928-29 peak, the world wide depression and the set up that led to the late 30's peak and WWII.
Sixer, you are correct in that it is difficult to see a correlation on a smaller time frame, i.e., could I use today's sunspot number to trade the Euro or the SPX today or this week? Not likely.
As an Amateur radio operator, Extra class, I have been following the sunspot cycles since I was a young teen ager... at cycle peaks, world wide communication is very easy with low power and a modest antenna. At this point in the cycle, I need to be more content with contacts with other hams up to about 7,000 miles and an occasional opening to New Zealand or Austraila from Connecticut. As we reach the minimum in 3 or 4 more years, it will become even more difficult.
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
