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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #57,221
  • May 5, 2017 7:21am May 5, 2017 7:21am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hi Alex, yes attack can make up for many losses if done well. Yea, I think this part I need to refine more and figure what is my preferred mo for handling such situations. These chats are good, they prove more thinking and bring new insight and help us improve our overall trading skills.
Yup cheers my friend.

The only thing I would add is that I do try to flow with stuff rather than have rigid rules but I guess have guidelines in my head (mostly FTIs quotes) and I do move up and down nos as required. But I am not very adept yet. I have found when I stopped focusing on/thinking about rescue and changed to focus on attack my pips increased hugely from smallish gains - a massive change by attitude change. I have a feeling if I become even less rigid on what I do I will also flow better and attack/rescue better sort of flowing in & out.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,222
  • May 5, 2017 7:29am May 5, 2017 7:29am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Yup cheers my friend. The only thing I would add is that I do try to flow with stuff rather than have rigid rules but I guess have guidelines in my head (mostly FTIs quotes) and I do move up and down nos as required. But I am not very adept yet. I have found when I stopped focusing on/thinking about rescue and changed to focus on attack my pips increased hugely from smallish gains - a massive change by attitude change. I have a feeling if I become even less rigid on what I do I will also flow better and attack/rescue better sort of flowing...
Hi Alex, yes the key is always the flow, not just flowing with market, but flow with the self.
  • #57,223
  • May 6, 2017 3:42am May 6, 2017 3:42am
Hello Friends,

Russia is going to celebrate the Victory Day.
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Let's not be trapped by atractive ambushes in trading. Surrender or be ready to respond in a mounted counterattack?

Best regards,

Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,224
  • May 6, 2017 5:16am May 6, 2017 5:16am
I love that this thread has been going on for ten years...

I am a new member here on FF, but have been reading since about 2009...

This thread among many others have helped me immensely. There are so many nuggets of gold, pearls of wisdom, and experience buried in the posts that it is definitely worth the read.
  • #57,225
  • May 6, 2017 10:11am May 6, 2017 10:11am
Sometimes it's worth reverting to a laughing or grotesque semi-reality about brokering and trading.
Meanwhile holding a tangible ground from AoW perspective.

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Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,226
  • May 7, 2017 4:06am May 7, 2017 4:06am
Funny for some time when i hear this i can not stop see candel charts do not know why


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  • #57,227
  • May 7, 2017 6:53am May 7, 2017 6:53am
Hi guys, is there a way to find out If the market is oversold or overbought without using indicators?
  • #57,228
  • Edited 9:25am May 7, 2017 8:49am | Edited 9:25am
Quoting validprice
Hi guys, is there a way to find out If the market is oversold or overbought without using indicators?
Hello Validprice,

At least, I can never 100% surely indicate the fact under question. While feeling the price flow and that of myself (stage 1) I would engage, first, using a scout and assuming it was a wrong decision (stage 2). The first finding (scout/-s) is always based on 50/50 probability. However, if it was indeed just a recce try, when the price is getting indeed valid (that is reported by your scouts), there must be a swift and resolute response - either a counterattack or full scale assault (stage 3). Only after that you will get an exact answer (booking profit or rescuing at BE).

So, in fact the live scouts help me to find out. Let's see what are the ways of our more experienced friends. There must be a lot of indiviual peculiarities.

Enjoy your trading!

Best regards, Exnav

P.S. Not knowing your experience with His Majesty Fx Spot, ought to add that the above presented was developed after reading the whole TAF thread (first 200 pages at least twice), years of practising demo/live, prudent/ individual MM. That should not be considered as any sort of advice in live trading.
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,229
  • May 7, 2017 10:38am May 7, 2017 10:38am
Quoting fti
Hi. ALL, @ Green_David, In regards, to your dance. I disected the info you provided. came up with afew questions. 1. I understand from your pervious postings that you have multi accounts now for different time frames. So I presume that this is the overhight accout your are presenting. right? 2. Being overnight I remembered that you metioned that you shall not be putting stop losses, right? So are you carrying profits attained from you daylight activities to average out your cost or are u leaving the accounts as treated as separate? and the profits...
Hi validprice, the duck hunts, mm hunt duck coz it's ob or oc.
  • #57,230
  • May 8, 2017 3:20am May 8, 2017 3:20am
Quoting validprice
Hi guys, is there a way to find out If the market is oversold or overbought without using indicators?
Hi vaildprice

price action can give clues and the high/lows also, but price can stay oversold on indicators for a long time, they give you a 'false' sense of security in my view, all anyone can do is guess from the available clues we see in the market, that is why here we first 'test' our guess with scouts then add/scale as more clues suggest that we may be right.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,231
  • May 8, 2017 4:52am May 8, 2017 4:52am
Quoting validprice
Hi guys, is there a way to find out If the market is oversold or overbought without using indicators?
If you think the market has given you enough profit.

The market will do whatever it wants - think we should learn to feel if it is speeding up or slowing down then maybe we want to react to that - if we worry about overbought/oversold state all the time then how can we trend trade properly. No crystal ball react to how she is dancing - and we can still be wrong.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,232
  • May 8, 2017 5:31am May 8, 2017 5:31am
Quoting validprice
Hi guys, is there a way to find out If the market is oversold or overbought without using indicators?
The thing about Forex is that it is a constantly moving mass
There are various ways of trading the market - but fundamentals and price/volume analysis works for me
You need to know why the market is up- and if it comes off is this going to be a pullback or is it the start of a new trend.
But you need to take risk/reward into account- this is really important.
You make money on big moves- not small ones- they end up costing you money.
Thought I would post a couple of charts on EU today on this

Got 70 pips today off EU- should have got a better position when I went short- but kids were playing up a bit last night.
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  • #57,233
  • May 8, 2017 6:14pm May 8, 2017 6:14pm
Hi all,

So im looking for some good books/ articles or anything that can help me understand market structure/microstructure. Im interested in the logic of price movement and reading order flow. Looking for detailed info of how it all works. Ive searched through quite a lot already and im wondering if anyone here has any good suggestions or can point me in the right direction.... Thank you!

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
  • #57,234
  • May 9, 2017 3:18am May 9, 2017 3:18am
Hi dbrown101

other than the books suggested in the beginning of the thread about how the market is set up and works all the rest i read just seem to bubble around the same old mainstream stuff, the basic market movement is 'pump and rest' understanding this is what really helped me, now i do my own studies and draw things from my own experiences only.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,235
  • May 9, 2017 4:18am May 9, 2017 4:18am
Quoting dbrown101
Hi all, So im looking for some good books/ articles or anything that can help me understand market structure/microstructure. Im interested in the logic of price movement and reading order flow. Looking for detailed info of how it all works. Ive searched through quite a lot already and im wondering if anyone here has any good suggestions or can point me in the right direction.... Thank you! If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you...
FTI mentions some books here in thread - do a search - try Robert Edwards Technical Analysis of Stock Trend - it explains in regards to peeps psychology and who is in market.

Best way is read thread, let market teach you - go with momentum and develop strategies for managing when goes against you - attacking skills are vital - go with momentum.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,236
  • May 9, 2017 3:58pm May 9, 2017 3:58pm
Quoting phil13
Hi dbrown101 other than the books suggested in the beginning of the thread about how the market is set up and works all the rest i read just seem to bubble around the same old mainstream stuff, the basic market movement is 'pump and rest' understanding this is what really helped me, now i do my own studies and draw things from my own experiences only. regards Phil.

Phil,

I have read and currently am reading the books suggested. Lots of good stuff!

Also, maybe you can clear something up for me. When Fti mentions daily trends... Is he referring to the daily charts? or is he referring to what the 5 min chart has been doing throughout the day. I found in post 36,626
fti says
"your daily chart analysis i not consider due to i do not do such time frames.
analysising your 5 min charts now."

Ive noticed discrepancies in what is said due to terms that mean different things to different people. maybe you can clear that up for me?
  • #57,237
  • Edited 12:35am May 10, 2017 12:21am | Edited 12:35am
Quoting dbrown101
{quote} Phil, I have read and currently am reading the books suggested. Lots of good stuff! Also, maybe you can clear something up for me. When Fti mentions daily trends... Is he referring to the daily charts? or is he referring to what the 5 min chart has been doing throughout the day. I found in post 36,626 fti says "your daily chart analysis i not consider due to i do not do such time frames. analysising your 5 min charts now." Ive noticed discrepancies in what is said due to terms that mean different things to different people. maybe you can...
hi dbrown101, if i may provide my opinion,

the reason why fti said that is because, the primary charts for looking for trends is 1hrly and managed using 5mins. but if daily has a bias and hrly is in tune with daily, we may get impulse on hrly that is inline with daily and fairly strong. but 1hrly trends take precedence to daily trends, because of the amount of time we want expect to be able to manage trades, that is daily does not take precedence unless 1hrly is inline with daily. if we analyse too far out, our scope for analysis may not be effective.

notice that when neoshg analysed the daily, it may take afew days to afew weeks for the desired swing to develop, and that is out of scope unless you position trade for quite long. that is why fti said that he does not consider the analysis on the daily, as it is simply not effective given the amount of time we are expecting to dance the markets, as our dance may not have enough time to manage till the daily scope.

when managing a 5mins charts, it may take maybe afew hours just to manage the trade properly, so if we extend it to the daily, it may take a very very long time just to manage it, and the volatility it implies to our mm and mo to salvage positions may imply its inadequate. because on top of the time scope, there is also the volatility factor to be expected on the chart which we analyse.

i guess for that particular case, that daily chart, we can say market should be fairly long for that current swing.
  • #57,238
  • May 10, 2017 1:41am May 10, 2017 1:41am
Hi dbrown101

i agree with what our friend CookieMonsta has said above, the only thing i would add is there are lots of different ways to determine a trend, personally i use different techniques for different time frames, i know/think from what i read here that fti uses EWave and bar by bar analysis.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,239
  • May 10, 2017 2:51am May 10, 2017 2:51am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi dbrown101, if i may provide my opinion, the reason ....
I think FTI does take a quick look at last few d1 bars - always good to have a general look at d1 before and during trades as it will show key areas where buyers/sellers could be lurking or not.
But I agree with CookieMonsta I always watch h1/m15 as I trade off m5.

If m5 has nice trendy legs FTI says he will put m15/h1 to the back.

But even if you are with h1/m15 etc still might not work out - market goes where he/she wants.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,240
  • Edited 4:49am May 10, 2017 4:35am | Edited 4:49am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} I think FTI does take a quick look at last few d1 bars - always good to have a general look at d1 before and during trades as it will show key areas where buyers/sellers could be lurking or not. But I agree with CookieMonsta I always watch h1/m15 as I trade off m5. If m5 has nice trendy legs FTI says he will put m15/h1 to the back. But even if you are with h1/m15 etc still might not work out - market goes where he/she wants. Alex
yep, he only glances a few d1 bars to see if there are any strong positions held by market participants, but the main analysis is not done there.
if daily is fairly strong, and show no sign of slowing off, most market participants should be long and if caught out of position the volatility can be very painful.
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