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Scalping the EUR at the European open

  • #101
  • May 4, 2017 8:00am May 4, 2017 8:00am
Tellboy, thank you for your answer. Now it's clear.
  • #102
  • May 5, 2017 2:45am May 5, 2017 2:45am
With three of our pairs, EUR/USD, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD touching a new high this morning at a significant resistance level, a retracement was no suprise. See the upper chart taken at 6 am.

The 7 am candle, shown on the lower 5 M charts was true to form as it indicated the down move on all pairs. Best returns are shown on EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD.

So, what lessons can we learn from today?

 

  1. Whe price reached a new high at a significant resistance level it is a good indication to retrace.
  2. The 7 am candle is the 'truth' indicator. Trust it.


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Tellboy
  • #103
  • Edited 5:18am May 5, 2017 4:47am | Edited 5:18am
Here are the 30 M charts for the four selected pairs for the past week showing the 7 am candle for each pair on each day.

This will enable us to discuss the value of the 7 am candle as it apears on the 30 M charts. We could pose the following questions, bearing in mind that the objective is a morning scalp and not a long-term trade for the day:

 

  1. What is the value of a bear candle at 7 am on a rising trend?
  2. What value are conflicting candles on different pairs?

The lower chart shows the value of following the 7 am candle for EUR/USD alone.

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Tellboy
  • #104
  • May 8, 2017 9:37am May 8, 2017 9:37am
Hi there EUR scalpers. Here are the charts for this morning, Monday 8th May 2017. You could not ask for a better example of this strategy at work. This is how it looks when the best trades are made. Is this worthy of discussion or what?


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Tellboy
  • #105
  • May 8, 2017 11:34am May 8, 2017 11:34am
Quoting tellboy
Hi there EUR scalpers. Here are the charts for this morning, Monday 8th May 2017. You could not ask for a better example of this strategy at work. This is how it looks when the best trades are made. Is this worthy of discussion or what? {image}


There is no doubt. Using your currency meter gives you an advantage. The trouble I have and probably some of the others. We are all trading using MT4. And we do not have a currency meter. And the two currency meters I have been using are not that good.
I think to trade your method you have to use your broker. I think you said it was IC markets. The trouble is I have found there demo site not to my liking but that's just my opinion,
I will still carry on watching your thread. Good luck.
  • #106
  • May 8, 2017 12:02pm May 8, 2017 12:02pm
Quoting tellboy
Hi there EUR scalpers. Here are the charts for this morning, Monday 8th May 2017. You could not ask for a better example of this strategy at work. This is how it looks when the best trades are made. Is this worthy of discussion or what? {image}

I've been demo trading this strategy and I love it! but a few things:

1. I've been using the 5min candle at 7am as the truth bar but I find I'm missing a lot of the trades. Last night the EURUSD 5 min candle at 7am painted a doji so I didn't take trades.
2. Sometimes the pairs are in the top quadrant but the 7am truth bar indicates you should go short. Vice versa. So I'm conflicted and decide not to take trades.
3. Sometimes 1 pair is not synchronized with the other pairs so I end up not taking any trades. I think one pair last night appeared to be trending up to me so again I didn't take any trades.
  • #107
  • May 8, 2017 2:49pm May 8, 2017 2:49pm
Quoting tellboy
Hi there EUR scalpers. Here are the charts for this morning, Monday 8th May 2017. You could not ask for a better example of this strategy at work. This is how it looks when the best trades are made. Is this worthy of discussion or what? {image}
Perfect charts there are so many pips to grab if you guys traded with these charts. Love this strategy. Thanks tellboy.
  • #108
  • May 8, 2017 2:50pm May 8, 2017 2:50pm
Quoting redfan
{quote} There is no doubt. Using your currency meter gives you an advantage. The trouble I have and probably some of the others. We are all trading using MT4. And we do not have a currency meter. And the two currency meters I have been using are not that good. I think to trade your method you have to use your broker. I think you said it was IC markets. The trouble is I have found there demo site not to my liking but that's just my opini
on, I will still carry on watching your thread. Good luck.
dont really need the strength meter really but just focus on the the '7am' candle and the how the charts sync with each other.
  • #109
  • May 8, 2017 2:50pm May 8, 2017 2:50pm
Quoting dbdan
{quote} I've been demo trading this strategy and I love it! but a few things: 1. I've been using the 5min candle at 7am as the truth bar but I find I'm missing a lot of the trades. Last night the EURUSD 5 min candle at 7am painted a doji so I didn't take trades. 2. Sometimes the pairs are in the top quadrant but the 7am truth bar indicates you should go short. Vice versa. So I'm conflicted and decide not to take trades. 3.
Sometimes 1 pair is not synchronized with the other pairs so I end up not taking any trades. I think one pair last night appeared...
use the 30m for '7am' candle.
  • #110
  • May 9, 2017 12:41am May 9, 2017 12:41am
Quoting redfan
{quote} There is no doubt. Using your currency meter gives you an advantage. The trouble I have and probably some of the others. We are all trading using MT4. And we do not have a currency meter. And the two currency meters I have been using are not that good. I think to trade your method you have to use your broker. I think you said it was IC markets. The trouble is I have found there demo site not to my liking but that's just my opinion, I will still carry on watching your thread. Good luck.
The charts posted by the OP are from IG Markets. I used them some years ago before moving to MT4 brokers. I much prefer MT4. We just need peeps that are MT4 traders to post their charts using this idea, so that we can make it work on MT4. Price movement is the same after all.

Can I confirm I have marked your 7am candle correctly using a GMT +3 broker?

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Good Trading
  • #111
  • May 9, 2017 3:08am May 9, 2017 3:08am
The example charts I posted yesterday illustrated a perfect performance of this strategy.

Now, today we have a perfect example of conflicting signals that tell us to stay out and avoid any risk.

There are a few issues and questions that need to be addressed, and I will be addressing them when time permits, but right now I am travelling from UK to the US and may not be able to find the time. Meanwhile please feel free to comment on the value of a currency strength meter and the value of co-ordinated or conflicting signals at 7 am.

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Tellboy
  • #112
  • Edited 5:57am May 9, 2017 5:44am | Edited 5:57am
Quoting aud
{quote} The charts posted by the OP are from IG Markets. I used them some years ago before moving to MT4 brokers. I much prefer MT4. We just need peeps that are MT4 traders to post their charts using this idea, so that we can make it work on MT4. Price movement is the same after all. Can I confirm I have marked your 7am candle correctly using a GMT +3 broker? {image}
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  • #113
  • May 9, 2017 6:26am May 9, 2017 6:26am
can u upload pivot indicator
  • #114
  • May 9, 2017 7:44am May 9, 2017 7:44am
Quoting nveemjay
can u upload pivot indicator
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 SweetSpotsGOLD_TRO_MODIFIED_VERSION.ex4   13 KB | 302 downloads
  • #115
  • May 9, 2017 7:47am May 9, 2017 7:47am
Quoting redfan
{quote} There is no doubt. Using your currency meter gives you an advantage. The trouble I have and probably some of the others. We are all trading using MT4. And we do not have a currency meter. And the two currency meters I have been using are not that good. I think to trade your method you have to use your broker. I think you said it was IC markets. The trouble is I have found there demo site not to my liking but that's just my opinion, I will still carry on watching your thread. Good luck.
I stopped using MT4 because I didn't like it, but you can still use all the same indicators like moving averages and pivot points, etc. One of the reasons I prefer IG Index, is because of the currency pair list that shows the strongest to weakest pairs. It is a great help as the first indicator, but it isn't the be-all and end-all. More important is the trend synchronicity between the pairs. See yesterday's (Monday 8th May) for a perfect example of what I mean about trend synchronicity. They are all the same. Now compare that with what happened today (Tues 9th May) and see just how different the trend patterns are on those four pairs. Today was a day to keep out because the trends were not in sync and the 7 am candles showed conflict and indecision in the market.

You may also notice that I did not show the currency pair strength list for Monday, and there was a very good reason for that. All EUR pairs showed strength at the top of the list, and that is an indication to go long. BUT, when price reached a new high and a significant resistance level there is a very high probability that price will fall and you need to go short, and that is precisely what happened. This is why I am constantly asking the question 'what is the value of a currency strength meter'?
Tellboy
  • #116
  • May 9, 2017 7:52am May 9, 2017 7:52am
Quoting Usmahn
{quote} use the 30m for '7am' candle.
The 15 M candle at 7 am is the best in my opinion. It absorbs 'noise' of the 5 m time frame and gives a clearer and more positive signal. The 30 M time frame is too long and it leaves the entry too late.
Tellboy
  • #117
  • May 9, 2017 7:57am May 9, 2017 7:57am
Quoting aud
{quote} The charts posted by the OP are from IG Markets. I used them some years ago before moving to MT4 brokers. I much prefer MT4. We just need peeps that are MT4 traders to post their charts using this idea, so that we can make it work on MT4. Price movement is the same after all. Can I confirm I have marked your 7am candle correctly using a GMT +3 broker? {image}
It 'looks' right because the correct candle is indicated, but I am confused by the time on your chart. My 7 am candle is at GMT+1 (British Summer time). Does this help?
Tellboy
  • #118
  • May 9, 2017 8:06am May 9, 2017 8:06am
Quoting dbdan
{quote} I've been demo trading this strategy and I love it! but a few things: 1. I've been using the 5min candle at 7am as the truth bar but I find I'm missing a lot of the trades. Last night the EURUSD 5 min candle at 7am painted a doji so I didn't take trades. 2. Sometimes the pairs are in the top quadrant but the 7am truth bar indicates you should go short. Vice versa. So I'm conflicted and decide not to take trades. 3. Sometimes 1 pair is not synchronized with the other pairs so I end up not taking any trades. I think one pair last night appeared...
It is wise to stay out of the trade when there is conflict and indecision. Don't be disheartened if you think you see a missed opportunity. It is better to avoid the risk if you are undecided. Now look at the example of Monday 8th May for just how good it can turn out when all the strategic steps are followed. These trades don't happen every day, but when they do you will see it now that you know what to look for.
Tellboy
  • #119
  • May 9, 2017 8:30pm May 9, 2017 8:30pm
Quoting redfan
{quote} {file}
Hi, This is Round Number indicator not pivot indicator.
  • #120
  • May 10, 2017 12:50am May 10, 2017 12:50am
Good morning EUR scalpers. Here are this morning's 15 M charts at 10 to 7. We can see the pair strength list and the trends as we wait for the 7 am candle. What do you expect to happen?

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Tellboy
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