France ETF hits highest level since 2014 with Macron victory seen likely | Forex Factory

  • France ETF hits highest level since 2014 with Macron victory seen likely

    From marketwatch.com

    In a sign investors are optimistic about how one of the year’s most pivotal political events will turn out, the largest exchange-traded fund to track the French equity market has been seeing both inflows and gains of late, climbing to a multiyear high on Friday. Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron, the leading pro-European Union candidate, is widely expected to coast to victory against National Front candidate Marine Le Pen, who has advocated for France leaving the euro EURUSD, +0.1092% and the EU, moves expected to be hugely destabilizing for the region. Macron won the first round of the French election with ... (full story)

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NotAtrader
May 6, 2017 12:52am
Permalink
EUR/USD can be heading down no matter who wins. Here is the reason why:

The EU is the biggest and the most important trading partner of USA. A win for Macron will be holding EU together which is extremely positive for USA's economy. This means that if Macron wins both currencies' indexes will go up. Thus the relation EUR/USD will remain stable and pretty unchanged in the very beginning (except the big spikes on the Election Day). But the fact that investors believe more in the future of USA's economy, will see the pair heading south in the longer run.

If Le Pen wins, the situation for the EUR will be even worse. As we all expect, EUR will crash and it will take years before it recovers.

Anyways a lot of spikes on Sunday and on Monday. Scary times.
BTW a hacking into Macron's documents has been reported. Let's see if something compromising comes out of this. I doubt that, but you never know...
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glenngie
May 5, 2017 4:46pm
Permalink
Quoting Hurst
Far right gets in
I was reading that the social media research shows a close race. Maybe the same thing is happening in France that happened in the US. Many people did not want to admit they were voting for Trump. So a huge wave of unseen support.
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glenngie
May 5, 2017 7:25pm
Permalink
Quoting nwedepius
If he wins EUR will hit 1.3+ cos it's like 1.1 is already priced-in, but CONTRARIAN THEORY is also an option to trade.
maybe a spike up and profit taking and we head back down
Reply
EventHorizon
May 6, 2017 1:06am
Permalink
Quoting NotAtrader
EUR/USD can be heading down no matter who wins. Here is the reason why: The EU is the biggest and the most important trading partner of USA. A win for Macron will be holding EU together which is extremely positive for USA's economy. This means that if Macron wins both currencies' indexes will go up. Thus the relation EUR/USD will remain stable and pretty unchanged in the very beginning (except the big spikes on the Election Day). But the fact that investors believe more in the future of USA's economy, will see the pair heading south in the longer...
True. With USA increasing rates the EURUSD is over priced, and in a settled world should drop. But then the Trump effect is screwing up the USD.
Reply
EventHorizon
May 5, 2017 8:07pm
Permalink
Quoting glenngie
{quote} maybe a spike up and profit taking and we head back down
'Buy the rumor sell the facts'. It could just head down after the expected win. Seen it before.
Reply
Hurst
May 5, 2017 3:21pm
Permalink
Far right gets in
Reply
nwedepius
May 5, 2017 5:46pm
Permalink
If he wins EUR will hit 1.3+ cos it's like 1.1 is already priced-in, but CONTRARIAN THEORY is also an option to trade.
Reply

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