Intraday Trend - Retrace - Resume - Enter

I am starting this public trade journal as a tool to help me trade with discipline, and once I have achieved success, to provide a resource for fellow retail traders.

As the thread title says, my trading plan is to identify intraday trends, wait for retracing/sideways action to allow counter-trend pressure to die off and trend resumption pressure to build, and then enter when price-action signals a resumption of the trend.

I trade on the M1 chart, but will look at all time frames to assist in identifying trends.

My #1 trading rule = Protect Capital

In most cases, I will cut a losing trade within 2-3 pips. I open trades with a 6-12 pip emergency stop that should only be hit if a news or 'fat-finger' event causes an unexpected spike against the trend. I move my SL to break-even once I am up 3+ pips.

My ideal liquidation is a large M1 spike in my direction (4.5+ pips). In many cases this will not occur, and closes will be a combination of partial profits taken at 'sticking points' where the probability of reversal is increased (previous high/lows, support/resistance levels, supply/demand zones, volume profile levels, round/half/quarter/tenth number psychological levels) and counter-trend price action.

I will be posting all trades I take. For now I won't include order size, once I am making enough money to want to brag about it I will include lot size

First trade UJ BUY @ 112.182, average +1.23 PIPS

USD/JPY is my #1 focus because...

-Most consistent volatility among USD pairs
-Very low trading cost at my broker... spread of 0.1-0.3 pips (sometimes 0.0!) and a commission of roughly 0.2 pips
-Correlations with Gold, Nikkei-225, US-Japan bond yield spreads (these 3 very strong) and US equities assist in trend identification.

EUR/JPY also when the EUR/USD trend matches USD/JPY trend (e.g. if USD is beating the Yen and Euro is beating the USD, then I will be looking to buy EJ), my spread on EJ is generally the same (or maybe +.1 or .2 ) as UJ during major trading hours

Hi...RRE is a proven concept that most successful traders employ in one form or another, so yours should also pan out reasonably well too I'd say, it just means being stuck in front of the screen all day on m1 which doesn't appeal to me.

Personally, I'm not keen on trading anything less than M15, but the concept nevertheless is sound, and g/l with your thread

Well hello, thank you for the reply, the vote of confidence, and for teaching me that there is an acronym for my approach !

Agreed that it is a lot of screen time, I'd like to develop my skills at higher time frame trading eventually so I make one trade then go do whatever, but this approach seems to me the best way to grow a small account by 2-3 orders of magnitude. And I am at a point in my life where I am ready and willing to work all day long.

2nd trade here.

UJ BUY @ 112.306, +1.7 PIPS.

I was a bit nervous going in due to the whipsaw reaction to the ADP report, and closed at the first sign of red once I was in the money, which I have mixed feelings about. I could have held and gained another +6, but it did go below my entry temporarily, where I might have panicked and closed for a loss.

What I have on my chart:
Turquoise line: NY Open
Green line: London Open
White dashed: 60-SMA
Purple dotted: 200-EMA
Plum/Yellow envelope: 3-SDEV volatility lines (MT4 envelope indicator, settings for UJ: Period 7, Deviation 0.11%)

AU SELL @ 0.74281 for -0.9 PIPS

Should not have taken this one. I was only semi-paying attention and the sudden spike drew me in.

 

1. Too late in the day, and volatility has died off across markets.
2. AU has already had a good range for the day of 120 pips, quite likely the trend is done for the day.

End the day at +2 pips. Meh . Profits but not much. Missed several good opportunities in UJ when I decided to go get some sunshine during the hour around "ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI" release and was working on a non-trading creative project for the hour before FOMC release. Japanese 'Golden Week' holidays continue tonight so I will try to sleep as much as I can between now and Frankfurt open

First trade of the May 4 session.

EJ SELL @ 122.646 for +1.4 PIPS average

Closed a third in the first minute at previous low, another third a few minutes later again near the low, the last third at BE, as EU had ticked up off the London open along with the EU-bullish Spanish unemployment drop (-78.2K forecast, -129.3K actual).

In hindsight should have sold all at the previous low but I was hoping for another plunge lower after the 35 pip drop in 37 minutes leading into the trade

UJ BUY @ 112.783 for -4.6 PIPS

Should not have taken this. UJ is basically flat this session, maybe a weak bear trend. Even so there was a 1 pip profit available in the first minute, and I should have had a scalping mindset due to the sideways market and closed then, or at the end of the minute after it formed a bearish shooting star.

EDIT: I sold at the short term low. 6 minutes later and the trade would have been up 4 pips.

EJ BUY @ 123.110 for +1.3 PIPS

Closed this earlier than I should have by the system, but was a bit tilted from the previous trade and wanted to get a win to improve my mental state. If I had lost this trade would have needed to walk away for a few hours.

UJ BUY @ 112.961 for +2.5 PIPS average

Sold a third at the start of the 3rd M1 as it flashed a few tenths of red, gold ticked up, and Nikkei ticked down.

Sold the rest when we got close to 113 and price hesitated, I didn't want to be one of the brave volunteers to see if it would break. Turned out to be right decision.

Into the green for the session

-12 trying to short UJ below 112.5.... should have been just -2.5 if I had followed the plan and closed my trade when the signal was broken. Instead I took a reverse position, then another short, and ended up losing money on all 3....Embarrassed to have to post this but that is why I am making this journal....

Okay. Friday. Lets see if I can get to profits for the week.

Things to focus on

1. Discipline. Trade by the plan, nothing else
2. Confidence in good positions. I have taken profits much to early on several excellent positions and have missed many green pips.

So far Euro is looking weak, going short on EJ, EU, and EA may present opportunities, but I will be watching for Euro to resume its multi-day bullishness. Session may also be a slow one, hopefully some good action in the New York morning.

+3.7 UCad Buy

Double bullish engulfing bottom got me in long. This pair has been making multiple 30 pip moves up and down for the last couple days, but the bigger picture was the huge 500 pip rise over the last 3 weeks.

I closed rather quickly because I thought the major data releases for USD and CAD were coming up at 1200 GMT, realized afterwards not until 1230. Which was a pity cause it continued up another 7 pips with barely any pulback

Naturally, no one wants to lose money when taking a position, but a balanced tolerance to risk is a necessary part of trading.

Intolerance to risk, particularly when operating on low t/fs is bound to kick you out of trades as often as not.

Your basic concept of determining an entry is ok imo, that therefore means that to gain any improvement to your results doesn't solely lie in your entry technique, but rather the t/f and your risk appetite. As traders, we must accept that risk is part and parcel of trading, and if we are confident enough to believe we have a technical edge, then some tolerance to our risk is a necessity in order to capitalise from that perceived edge. Something to think about that's all...g/l

Thanks for further feedback, and agreed. My entries can improved, but they are not the weakest link in my trading.

I had some more trades on Friday, 1 winner and 3 losers, I'm going to renege on my OP and not post them, because what is there to learn from a mind on tilt except don't take trades while tilted?

This week I am trading with reduced leverage, and again focusing on discipline and patience. I only need to capture a small fraction of the market's movement to make a living doing this. Quality, not quantity.

I am narrowing my focus to the following, and only the following, in order:

1. UJ
2. EJ
3. EU
4. Dow30

Other pairs and instruments can be exciting, and it is tough to watch the big markets crawl along while pairs like GJ and EA are making 30 pip moves every 2 minutes. But these are the markets where I have the best cost structure, and that I have the most familiarity with. And again: quality not quantity. When my trades are good, leverage can be increased and plenty of $ can be earned.

Shutting down this journal for now. Unfortunately have found maintaining it to be less helpful than a private trade log.

Understood, especially when the ends(output) do not justify the means (input).

The majority of threads get bogged down and tired, often by repetition of saying the same thing over and over.

Imagine if there were only one t/f on our charts that we could trade from ie h1 for example. Decision making then would be far far easier for all and eliminate the merry-go-round of questions asked. In general. therefore it can be concluded that traders are the makers of their own confusion, whereby other dynamics such as time in particular, are causing the effect.

Incidentally, I also prefer to minimise my input on FF ref my initial comment and is the prime reason why I have never created a thread.

Good luck with your future pursuit...LL