Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 2861 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #57,201
  • May 3, 2017 5:06am May 3, 2017 5:06am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Well, it's the same mo and mm, except you simply leave the last level rescue of 20 troops as safety to use only when 12 units are all sunk. Say, you have 32 units total. Say for example, you have 1 scout, you attack with 1, attack again with 2 and again with 3, but sudden counter impulse leaves you with 1 1 2 3, so you attempt rescue with 5 to try bring 3 out but 5 fail as well, and you are at the critical point if you add and rescue at this point, it would be death battle, so you only fast in fast our to bring some troopers back to try...
you means options right?
  • #57,202
  • Edited 6:33am May 3, 2017 6:19am | Edited 6:33am
Quoting warbee
{quote} you means options right?
Hi warbee, yes, in referring to costless collars, I mean options, which is limited upside limited down side, little premium paid up front.

The key idea of the costless collar is to try to decorrelate books sigma to markets volatility.

The key is in the breaking point of 62% as per the finish skew, mm skew as well as the terrain and dance. And strategies to decorrelate markets volatility from books sigma, using alternative strategy, the dance presented here is the key component, the rest is up to ones strategic thinking and creativity.

This is my research into the problem of the curve ball.
  • #57,203
  • Edited 7:52am May 3, 2017 6:26am | Edited 7:52am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Thanks.. get what you are saying I like your use of fibs ... I do similar putting them in at next fib levels depends...trouble with counter trend rescue is stimes it pulls back very small and you need to flip over really .......however the counter trend move is a good place to take out men as it reduces loss levels. After a few waves we can also expect (but may not get) a deeper pullback good for rescue - I cannot quite decide if I am doing stupid rescues sometimes counter trend which need to be fast in/out but sometimes pullbacks are weak...
Well, it was learnt here, I remember it was northpro earlier in the thread who mentioned a similar problem and Fti's suggestion was to maneuver in this method to try to bring the troopers back and try square it down as much as possible.

Yep, that is the problem, sometimes, market looks slow wispy trend down, only to suddenly gain impulse downwards and not let you off even with rescue troops inside, and the volatility might be out of tolerance limits. That's what spur me on to look into options. To buy time.

Well I once seen the blotter of Fti's while maneuver using the golden spiral like this, so I was kind of trying to emulate from that. That is like 1 1 1 1 1 as scout bot, at 5 units, then if down, rescue window open, buy 8, but price trend up strongly, net position is 13, so spiral in, 8 units in, with 21 total. So your kind of constantly spiraling in spiraling out using the next level of fibo, while flowing with market. Basically I don't use the fibo tables as much but directly golden spiral directly, which is 1.618 for rescue and 0.618 for attack. And I notice this goes well with the mo of timing hips and lops if you can time the hips and lops well.

So when sometimes, your active position size is small and market seems currently range bound, you can revert to 1x rescue skew to reaverage at lower end of range, in case price suddenly tanks, you have more units ready to rescue and your book may not be as tied up. Or if you feel fairly confident, you can stack 1x as attack using the fibo and build a hump, say 1 1 0.618. so this variation in mm allows for spec-ing the mm on the fly to terrain and feel.

There's lots of variation, according to feel of terrain to drive mm.

But all these being said, I realised the curve ball is the true killer, the one that doesn't let you off and suddenly counter impulses against you, then the proper skill, for a lack of a better word to describe it, to cut and flip to rescue exposure is key here. But this one is quite tough to master well.
  • #57,204
  • May 4, 2017 2:19am May 4, 2017 2:19am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Well, it was learnt here, I remember it was northpro earlier in the thread who mentioned a similar problem and Fti's suggestion was to maneuver in this method to try to bring the troopers back and try square it down as much as possible.....
Thanks that is what I am trying to do -----I do use the fib nos and I will use next one and/or next again depends on what I am doing - sometimes I will close eg say 3 in loss and reenter when price is better using 3 3 6 (not that good at this yet tho). I think attack is true secret of this and rescue is damage limitation -snowballing is very dangerous if against trend.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,205
  • May 4, 2017 4:40am May 4, 2017 4:40am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Thanks that is what I am trying to do -----I do use the fib nos and I will use next one and/or next again depends on what I am doing - sometimes I will close eg say 3 in loss and reenter when price is better using 3 3 6 (not that good at this yet tho). I think attack is true secret of this and rescue is damage limitation -snowballing is very dangerous if against trend. Alex
Yep.

But regarding the against trend portion, to be honest, you may not know your against trend till it's bleeding, like weak wispy move down if your long, then suddenly strong impulse down. And yes, I definitely agree snowballing against trend is definitely dangerous, so I guess this is the curve ball which fti mentioned, which is against such counter impulse how to effectively handle it. Because in being too anxious to cut and flip to rescue, can lead to very rigid trading, which is one of the mistakes I realised I kept making. So I guess gotta try to figure what's the sweet spot between reaverage to rescue vs cut and flip to rescue.

I'm currently reading dongsky's journal, it's pretty enlightening, it shows his dance when he first started till when he fully mastered the mo here. It has a lot of his dance shown with many charts posted, is a good read to sort of have a feel of how others before us who mastered the mo here are dancing to see if we are on track.
  • #57,206
  • May 4, 2017 4:45am May 4, 2017 4:45am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Yep. But regarding the against trend portion, to be honest, you may not know your against trend till it's bleeding. I'm currently reading dongsky's journal, it's pretty enlightening, it shows his dance when he first started till when he fully mastered the mo here. It has a lot of his dance shown with many charts posted, is a good read to sort of have a feel of how others before us who mastered the mo here are dancing to see if we are on track.
I have read that one before too.. might take another look... Phil's is fab for me too - to mostly confirm stuff that I think - he and I seem to think alike a bit. I have scouted around for some good ones. But at end of day I think we have to trade the way that we feel it and it is a bit personal.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,207
  • May 4, 2017 4:50am May 4, 2017 4:50am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} I have read that one before too.. might take another look... Phil's is fab for me too - to mostly confirm stuff that I think - he and I seem to think alike a bit. I have scouted around for some good ones. But at end of day I think we have to trade the way that we feel it and it is a bit personal. Alex
Ah yes, I would be reading Phil's journal next after I read dongsky's.

Yep, personal touches, which is to find the self in the market place.
  • #57,208
  • May 4, 2017 6:51pm May 4, 2017 6:51pm
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi V good to see you around again, things are going well for me thanks, how is it for you my friend, enjoying being back trading? regards Phil.
I am ok my trading has not been that good. Need to figure out something. Glad working out for you
  • #57,209
  • May 4, 2017 10:29pm May 4, 2017 10:29pm
The circle has no end and no beginning, just as it could start anywhere along the circle and end anywhere along the circle, so it begins where it starts. Hence for every move, there is a counter move, and for the circle, the move and the countermoves create a circle.

Is there a circular strategy? I think there is a circular strategy in the back of my mind, which is forming, but I am unable to properly project it consciously in my mind and examine it.

I guess given more time I should be able to properly project it in my mind and study it. This could form a new foundation for my own custom mo?
  • #57,210
  • May 4, 2017 10:38pm May 4, 2017 10:38pm
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Yep. But regarding the against trend portion, to be honest, you may not know your against trend till it's bleeding, like weak wispy move down if your long, then suddenly strong impulse down. And yes, I definitely agree snowballing against trend is definitely dangerous, so I guess this is the curve ball which fti mentioned, which is against such counter impulse how to effectively handle it. Because in being too anxious to cut and flip to rescue, can lead to very rigid trading, which is one of the mistakes I realised I kept making....
you can pull out some position and re-cap when it turn.
or re-cap on others pair and wait when it turn and re-cap.
  • #57,211
  • May 5, 2017 1:03am May 5, 2017 1:03am
Quoting warbee
{quote} you can pull out some position and re-cap when it turn. or re-cap on others pair and wait when it turn and re-cap.
Yes, that's a good way to handle if capital is tied up too.
  • #57,212
  • May 5, 2017 2:21am May 5, 2017 2:21am
Hi CookieMonsta

i have done this in the past and what i found tends to happen is i was not as careful with my entries as i guess my mind did no value the 1 so much, another way i found that works well is to re-scout the next entries first and just minus it off the bigger entry if successful.

regards

Phil.

this was an answer to the post you deleted.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,213
  • May 5, 2017 2:24am May 5, 2017 2:24am
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} I am ok my trading has not been that good. Need to figure out something. Glad working out for you
Hi V

sorry to hear that my friend, i hope you get it sorted soon .

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,214
  • May 5, 2017 2:28am May 5, 2017 2:28am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Yes, that's a good way to handle if capital is tied up too.
FTI says in general guidance if we are against impulse then cut out last men in and in PB flip scouts to correct direction. I wonder if leave scouts in in case in PB it goes back our way in which case no flip required?

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,215
  • May 5, 2017 4:41am May 5, 2017 4:41am
Quoting phil13
Hi CookieMonsta i have done this in the past and what i found tends to happen is i was not as careful with my entries as i guess my mind did no value the 1 so much, another way i found that works well is to re-scout the next entries first and just minus it off the bigger entry if successful. regards Phil. this was an answer to the post you deleted.
Hi Phil, what you mention is another viable alternative too. Many variations as long as it works well.
  • #57,216
  • May 5, 2017 4:46am May 5, 2017 4:46am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} FTI says in general guidance if we are against impulse then cut out last men in and in PB flip scouts to correct direction. I wonder if leave scouts in in case in PB it goes back our way in which case no flip required? Alex
Hi Alex, there is a grey area in between I believe which I have not grasp, which is the part about when to cut and when to rescue. As you mention, in PB scout left in there is alright since impulse is still in our favour.

But when we enter it's usually because our analysis told us we might turn, then there would be some grey area between deciding it's impulse or PB. Because I realised cutting and flipping require a high enough volatility and momentum factor, then the rescue will be effective. And when you cut and flip matters slot other wise it might end up as 2 losses in a row. So this is my dilemma.
  • #57,217
  • May 5, 2017 5:28am May 5, 2017 5:28am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hi Alex, there is a grey area in between I believe which I have not grasp, which is the part about when to cut and when to rescue. As you mention, in PB scout left in there is alright since impulse is still in our favour. But when we enter it's usually because our analysis told us we might turn, then there would be some grey area between deciding it's impulse or PB. Because I realised cutting and flipping require a high enough volatility and momentum factor, then the rescue will be effective. And when you cut and flip matters slot other...
Thanks for the chat about rescue - I am not very sure either. Here is what I generally think:

rescue only if we are with trend is best

say we get in pullback after impulse and it pulls back some more --> rescue as prior impulse is still good unless prior impulse very large and pullback is > 50% (trend is weak) or we attacked at wave B and wave C starts and can go far then cut scouts (say 2) and get in when we are very confident that momentum is really back with us via strong reversal when we can go in at 2 2 4... or you could do 1 1 and stronger attack to recover prior losses

say we do as above and we are wrong and against higher trend then best to cut (unless pullback starts where we can reduce or even eliminate our losses by removing men in pullback) and flip when opportunity arises - when higher trend cuts in it can really hurt book - if that fails too then maybe we are in congestion so I'd cut all probably and look to recover later when got my balance back.

if we decide to rescue against trend (do not think FTI likes this) for some reason - need to get in/out super fast and do not let losses build so cut it quick if it goes wrong as this can really kill

1/2 good attacks can cover many losses --> if you have made good money then maybe no need for rescue at all - offset 1 against another

I have never seen FTI trade but I think he can put men in and out at will spiralling in/out on nos to recover losses/add to gains - think he flows with it and sometimes even he will have a bad day I guess.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,218
  • May 5, 2017 6:35am May 5, 2017 6:35am
Quoting fti
{quote} Hi Zoran, I had one of those too, recently.So I guess you want to know as you may have been there too, huh. OK, Although I think it is unwise to make a carbon copy of me, I 'll give you a little sketch for your education. Yes, it is possible to be caught in a sudden impulse against our open positions sometimes. If that was at scout levels then the response is easy. You figure it out yourself. Its already given in the thread. If it was when we are at rescue mode or attack mode, then a little discomfort is likely, this is the MO. When a counter...
fti
  • #57,219
  • Edited 7:17am May 5, 2017 7:04am | Edited 7:17am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Thanks for the chat about rescue - I am not very sure either. Here is what I generally think: rescue only if we are with trend is best say we get in pullback after impulse and it pulls back some more --> rescue as prior impulse is still good unless prior impulse very large and pullback is > 50% (trend is weak) or we attacked at wave B and wave C starts and can go far then cut scouts (say 2) and get in when we are very confident that momentum is really back with us via strong reversal when we can go in at 2 2 4... or you could do 1 1 and...
Hi Alex, yes attack can make up for many losses if done well. Yea, I think this part I need to refine more and figure what is my preferred mo for handling such situations.

These chats are good, they probe more thinking and bring new insight and help us improve our overall trading skills.
  • #57,220
  • Edited 7:18am May 5, 2017 7:05am | Edited 7:18am
Quoting pdym
{quote} fti
Hi pdym, yes, and as highlighted exposure can go as high as 30% and after that rogue trader. That was the part which I'm trying to figure what's appropriate for myself.

I guess I'm trying to find myself in the markets.

Which was why I kept trying to probe and learn about options early on, because I felt it could potentially give us more strategic alternatives to handle such scenarios.

And why I kept researching for collars and puts and calls, essentially the dance with respect to spot, collars, puts and calls and their respective mm.
12 traders viewing now