Scalping the EUR at the European open | Page 5 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Trying scalping with a 1000 bucks - Scalping is expensive! 39 replies

EUR scalping at the European Open 11 replies

1M & 5M Scalping System (Scalping Paradise) 21 replies

30 second EURJPY Tokyo Open scalping 7 replies

Scalping Thread Open mind 2 replies

Attachments: Scalping the EUR at the European open
Exit Attachments

Scalping the EUR at the European open

  • #81
  • Edited Apr 29, 2017 3:45am Apr 28, 2017 3:50am | Edited Apr 29, 2017 3:45am
Here are the 30 M charts for the week for discussion, showing the trade entry signals. What I find most interesting is that the 7 am bar is the key that indicates the scalp move to take. During the course of this past week there was only one short trade indicated.

The upper chart shows four selected pairs for the whole week.

The lower chart EUR/USD, which is used as the major pair key (meaning that when this pair moves so do the others) is presented on its own.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-04-28_09-37-21.jpg Size: 722 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-04-28_09-36-07.jpg Size: 387 KB
Tellboy
  • #82
  • Apr 29, 2017 4:16am Apr 29, 2017 4:16am
Let's have a review and discussion on price action for scalping the EUR during the past week.

It can be seen on all charts above that the 7 am candle is the key to the direction of the forthcoming spike to be scalped.

It can also be seen that on one occassion (Weds) the spike is in a counter-trend direction that turned out to be a significant retracement all the way back to major support. This down move was precipitated by reaching the major resistance at 10,950 and a double top. A high reading on the currency strength indicator can often indicate a sharp return to the downside. This can create confusion, non-entry or a loss if the retracement is misconstrued as a possible pullback, and it is these situations that we need to resolve if we are to make our pip target every day.

It is these, and similar occassions when the direction of the potential spike is not clearly indicated, that we have to be very cautious and wait to see what the 7 am candle on a 5 M chart has to say.

Therefore, during the coming week I shall capture the 7 am candle the moment it occurs and post it to the thread asp. At the close of each session I shall post the result for the day showing the potential trade outcome with a measurement of pips scored and the time taken. Then, at the end of the week I shall post the week's findings with all entry and exit points and the pips scored.

During the coming week use your paper trading account and see how well it compares with the end-of-week report posted here. Any comments or suggestions are welcomed.

Have a good weekend.
Tellboy
  • #83
  • Apr 29, 2017 8:22pm Apr 29, 2017 8:22pm
Quoting tellboy
Let's have a review and discussion on price action for scalping the EUR during the past week......... Have a good weekend.
thanks!
and have a good weekend too.

  • #84
  • Apr 30, 2017 9:55am Apr 30, 2017 9:55am
Hi Tellboy.
Thank you for posting your strategy.

English isn't my native language so excuse me for possible mistakes.

I have a question about some aspect of your strategy: what's the point of basket trading in this particular case? It means, if you want to trade on EUR morning breakout, and you choose 4 pairs to trade, each one with "x" lots entry. Isn't it preferable simply to trade EURUSD (as more volatile than EURAUD for example) and make "4x"lots entry?
  • #85
  • May 1, 2017 12:02am May 1, 2017 12:02am
Quoting zharoffs
Hi Tellboy. Thank you for posting your strategy. English isn't my native language so excuse me for possible mistakes. I have a question about some aspect of your strategy: what's the point of basket trading in this particular case? It means, if you want to trade on EUR morning breakout, and you choose 4 pairs to trade, each one with "x" lots entry. Isn't it preferable simply to trade EURUSD (as more volatile than EURAUD for example) and make "4x"lots entry?
That's good question. The reason is that sometimes, when the USD is strong, EUR/USD doesn't breakout, but all the other pairs do. There is an example of this I posted on 19th April in this thread to illustrate it. Thank you for asking.
Tellboy
  • #86
  • Edited 2:25am May 1, 2017 12:10am | Edited 2:25am
Monday 1st May. Bank holiday in the UK, and the 30 M chart shows EUR/USD in the bottom half of the currency strenth list. AUD is strong and JPY is weakest. Synergy between the pairs indicates them all edging sideways and showing no signs of trending yet. Therefore there are no signals for us to take an interest, so let's see what happens anyway. Here's the chart at just before 6 am (GMT+1).

The lower chart is the 5 M time frame illustrating the inconsistancy in the market. It is only when there is uniformity that the signals to trade are in sync. Notice the inconsistancy in the 7 am 'truth' candle. When they are pointing in opposite directions there is too much risk in opening any position.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-05-01_05-54-09.jpg Size: 668 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-05-01_08-18-42.jpg Size: 620 KB
Tellboy
  • #87
  • May 1, 2017 6:38am May 1, 2017 6:38am
Quoting tellboy
Monday 1st May. Bank holiday in the UK, and the 30 M chart shows EUR/USD in the bottom half of the currency strenth list. AUD is strong and JPY is weakest. Synergy between the pairs indicates them all edging sideways and showing no signs of trending yet. Therefore there are no signals for us to take an interest, so let's see what happens anyway. Here's the chart at just before 6 am (GMT+1). The lower chart is the 5
M time frame illustrating the inconsistancy in the
market. It is only when there is uniformity that the signals to trade are in sync....
Hi tellboy you got a great thread going on here. One Question when you look at the '7 am' truth candle which time frame do you use?
  • #88
  • Edited 8:15am May 1, 2017 6:41am | Edited 8:15am
Quoting Usmahn
{quote} Hi tellboy you got a great thread going on here. One Question when you look at the '7 am' truth candle which time frame do you use?
5 M is the simple answer, but it can also be seen on 10 or 15. Even better on the 30 M - see the next post.
Tellboy
  • #89
  • Edited 8:14am May 1, 2017 8:04am | Edited 8:14am
As a matter of interest, here is the value of the 'truth' candle at 7 am on the 30 M time frame even when there is no synchronicity between the pairs on the left EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and the pairs on the right EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD. It can clearly be seen that the USD and JPY move in tandem against the EUR, as do the AUD and NZD.

Interesting isn't it?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-05-01_13-58-47.jpg Size: 728 KB
Tellboy
  • #90
  • May 2, 2017 3:17am May 2, 2017 3:17am
Here is a good example of when to stay out of the trade.

Firstly, on the 30 M chart there is no uniformity in the shape and trends of all four pairs. (Ignore the currency strengths in the list on the left of the charts because this was not captured at 6 am). There is inconsistancy in the patterns between those on the left and those on the right of the 30 M charts.

Secondly there was a surprise bull spike on EUR/USD and EUR/JPY at 6 am.

Thirdly, looking at the 15 M charts below we can see that there is inconsistancy in the 7 am candle. There was a bull candle on EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD, but not on the EUR/USD, which is our key pair. The bull candle on the AUD and NZD was far too close to a resistance level on their retracement from a strong downtrend overnight. We should only take notice when there is consistancy in all pairs with the 7 am 'truth' candle, by using the EUR/USD as our benchmark.

With no synchronised price action on these three essential criteria, this all indicates to remain out of the market.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-05-02_08-58-27.jpg Size: 746 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-05-02_09-03-30.jpg Size: 652 KB
Tellboy
  • #91
  • May 2, 2017 3:32am May 2, 2017 3:32am
Quoting tellboy
As a matter of interest, here is the value of the 'truth' candle at 7 am on the 30 M time frame even when there is no synchronicity between the pairs on the left EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and the pairs on the right EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD. It can clearly be seen that the USD and JPY move in tandem against the EUR, as do the AUD and NZD. Interesting isn't it? {image}
Thank you for your reply. Also i am getting the hang of '7 am' truth candle and how to plan the trade depending on the synchronicity of that candle with all four pairs, wanted to ask then what about the '7:45 am' candle should we ignore it or is it of any value?
  • #92
  • May 2, 2017 4:15am May 2, 2017 4:15am
Quoting Usmahn
{quote} Thank you for your reply. Also i am getting the hang of '7 am' truth candle and how to plan the trade depending on the synchronicity of that candle with all four pairs, wanted to ask then what about the '7:45 am' candle should we ignore it or is it of any value?
The idea is to catch the upward move with a buy stop order after 7 am. A succesful move will show at 7:45 and it should be safe to enter.
Tellboy
  • #93
  • May 3, 2017 1:40am May 3, 2017 1:40am
My entry EURAUD, also EURNZD rally did move really well great breakout also.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example1.png Size: 43 KB
  • #94
  • Edited 5:13am May 3, 2017 4:13am | Edited 5:13am
We had a choice today due to the strength of USD and weakness of AUD.

All EUR pairs were at the top of the strength list, but there was inconsistancy between the pairs on the left and those on the right. With the knowledge that USD, JPY and CAD move in sync against EUR, I substituted NZD with CAD.

The lower illistration shows the 5 M charts with the 7 am 'truth' candle and the final outcome if those candles were followed.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-05-03_06-08-47.jpg Size: 741 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-05-03_09-42-11.jpg Size: 701 KB
Tellboy
  • #95
  • May 3, 2017 10:59am May 3, 2017 10:59am
I like this system but a few questions:

If at 6:30 GMT the EUR/USD is in the upper quadrant
The trend is up so you are looking for long trades

BUT the 7:00 truth bar red/bearish what do you do?

Do you only take the pairs that have bullish truth candles for long trades?
  • #96
  • May 3, 2017 12:13pm May 3, 2017 12:13pm
Quoting dbdan
I like this system but a few questions: If at 6:30 GMT the EUR/USD is in the upper quadrant The trend is up so you are looking for long trades BUT the 7:00 truth bar red/bearish what do you do? Do you only take the pairs that have bullish truth candles for long trades?
In such circumstances there is a choice, as was clearly illustrated today. When the EUR/USD is high on the list and the trend has reached a new high or a significant level of resistance we can expect it to retrace. The first good indicator of a retracement is about 6 am with the first bear candle. It would be wise to place a sell stop order below in order to catch the 7 am bear candle. Conversely, the AUD and NZD were still in an upward trend and if this is the choice then it would be wise to place a buy stop order to catch the 7 am bull candle. I hope this makes it clear.
Tellboy
  • #97
  • May 3, 2017 1:40pm May 3, 2017 1:40pm
Quoting tellboy
{quote} In such circumstances there is a choice, as was clearly illustrated today. When the EUR/USD is high on the list and the trend has reached a new high or a significant level of resistance we can expect it to retrace. The first good indicator of a retracement is about 6 am with the first bear candle. It would be wise to place a sell stop order below in order to catch the 7 am bear candle. Conversely, the AUD and NZD were still in an upward trend and if this is the choice then it would be wise to place a buy stop order to catch the 7 am bull...
Where should we place the buy or stop orders? Is it at the start of 8 am candle?
  • #98
  • May 3, 2017 1:46pm May 3, 2017 1:46pm
Quoting Usmahn
{quote} Where should we place the buy or stop orders? Is it at the start of 8 am candle?
No. The 7 am candle points in the direction of the trade. You can wait for a sight pullback from the 7 am candle to place your stop order or enter straight after it. The objective is to catch the 8 am scalp. If you wait for it you may miss it or get caught with a wide spread.
Tellboy
  • #99
  • May 3, 2017 3:53pm May 3, 2017 3:53pm
At 6:30 am (GMT) check the currency strengths using a simple H/L leader list as shown in the example chart below. If the EUR/USD is in the upper quadrant of the list and is seen to be rising since midnight (GMT+1) the indication is to go long. If the pair is in the lower quadrant then the indication is to go short. Best results are when the EUR pairs are grouped together at the top (for long trades) or at the bottom (for short trades).

I guess there is some flexibility to the steps. I've taken only taken trades when all the steps check out. If the EUR is strong, I have only gone long and only took long trades on the pairs that showed a bullish candle at the 5min 7am.

I've done well just following them, just refining the strategy.

Thanks Tellboy!!
  • #100
  • May 4, 2017 2:43am May 4, 2017 2:43am
Here is another example of where there is conflict and indecision in the market, which is not ideal for scalping on all four pairs with this system.

The 30 M charts shows non-synchronicity in the trend patterns with the 100 MA as our guide. EUR/USD shows a retracement from a low up towards the daily pivot, so we could expect a down move to resume the direction of the 100 MA. EUR/JPY is touching a resistance level. As USD and JPY tend to move in sync with each other against EUR we could expect EUR/JPY to go short.

The conflict comes in with the weakness in the AUD and NZD. The conflict is the high probability that EUR/USD and EUR/JPY will short, but EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD are indicating a continued up move.

Further conflict is shown in the differences in the 7 am candles of AUD and NZD.

Under these circumstances the wise scalper would stay out, but the risk taker would place a sell stop order below EUR/USD and EUR/JPY.

The lower 15 M chart shows where price on these two pairs broke the 5 M MA to give a short scalp prior to 8 am. Indecision in the market at 8 am maintained price on all pairs in a holding position.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-05-04_05-51-26 = 30M.jpg Size: 726 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-05-04_08-11-23.jpg Size: 684 KB
Tellboy
0 traders viewing now