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  • #15,041
  • Apr 26, 2017 12:08pm Apr 26, 2017 12:08pm
Quoting The Fool
Ginormous slump in the ^VIX (-24%) I am watching maybe get some follow thru tomorrow but I did fill a VXX Jun/Sept $30 call calendar @ 28c, will do more if it gets cheaper, 30c max was my target.
^VIX to ride that $10 line now until the next little scare. I bought alot of spam for the bunker thinking nuke war would break out this week....oh well, it will be good for decades....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,042
  • Apr 26, 2017 12:25pm Apr 26, 2017 12:25pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}lonely and sad....
time to hop aboard the trump train and win, win, win!!!
  • #15,043
  • Apr 26, 2017 12:31pm Apr 26, 2017 12:31pm
Quoting Wulfgar
time to hop aboard the trump train and win, win, win!!!
contrarian will work someday, prolly the day after my funeral....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,044
  • Apr 26, 2017 12:48pm Apr 26, 2017 12:48pm
maybe shop some EWW longer term bear trades on NAFTA news?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,045
  • Apr 26, 2017 2:50pm Apr 26, 2017 2:50pm
Quoting The Fool
maybe shop some EWW longer term bear trades on NAFTA news?
I've been waiting on the same thing.
  • #15,046
  • Apr 26, 2017 7:27pm Apr 26, 2017 7:27pm
Quoting The Fool
maybe shop some EWW longer term bear trades on NAFTA news?
the US election week range was $10.70
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,047
  • Apr 26, 2017 9:36pm Apr 26, 2017 9:36pm
EWW, Kahuna shot, opens the back long put end of the diagonal for a Summer dip below $40, ratio is 4:10. NAFTA vol not a given....yet....and could take many months to develop, but otoh if the noise keeps up prolly better to trade the expectations of an assault on EWW
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,048
  • Apr 27, 2017 12:41am Apr 27, 2017 12:41am
long gold on the GLD calls, Jun mnth/qtrly calendar - cheap spread with good r:r.....the common theme is the protectionist moves will increase inflation and the shiny is a hedge...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,049
  • Apr 27, 2017 2:10pm Apr 27, 2017 2:10pm
Quoting The Fool
maybe shop some EWW longer term bear trades on NAFTA news?
Trump cannot be relied on anything. my bet is that he will blink first

He is now realized that NAFTA cannot be touched, so he is on face saving mode and looking for some minor changes to brag. My gut feeling is that he is just flexing and in the end we won't see any major changes.

Barking dog generally don't bite.
  • #15,050
  • Apr 27, 2017 3:57pm Apr 27, 2017 3:57pm
big ER's for AMZN, GOOGL, etc....we should see bull market motor up to close the week, maybe new ath's?....FOMC next week.....once again I have to wonder now: is good news good news? or is good news bad news?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,051
  • Apr 30, 2017 11:47pm Apr 30, 2017 11:47pm
FOMC + NFP week, prolly be flatline or slow uptick for stocks until the FOMC, a Wed hike would be a surprise...otherwise watching the headlines for the usual WWIII scares. CR signed today takes away the little spook of govt shutdown....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,052
  • Edited May 1, 2017 2:11am Apr 30, 2017 11:57pm | Edited May 1, 2017 2:11am
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/29/rober...845&yptr=yahoo

....my Kingdom for a pullback, right?...but if the geopoli spooks drift away and the DJT govt gets anything done in the big ticket items - health care, tax reform, infrastructure money, etc.....then stocks should keep grinding up, spoos 2,500 easy this year
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,053
  • May 1, 2017 1:02pm May 1, 2017 1:02pm
Quoting The Fool
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/29/rober...845&yptr=yahoo ....my Kingdom for a pullback, right?...but if the geopoli spooks drift away and the DJT govt gets anything done in the big ticket items - health care, tax reform, infrastructure money, etc.....then stocks should keep grinding up, spoos 2,500 easy this year

Golden age for stocks, commodity deflation, and banking.

Trumpntrain unstoppable really. Still easy to male a case for DOW 30k+

I got knocked out of my Aussie shorts

Added more to the shiny short at 1267-1270 like I said before. dirty still grinding down. also sold some 10Y note futures. that was a hell of a short squeeze on both

hopefully they will keep falling as equities grind up
  • #15,054
  • May 1, 2017 1:41pm May 1, 2017 1:41pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Trumpntrain unstoppable really.
yep, just the big headlines and bombshell tweets. Maybe the Fed could pull on a wet blanket if they get busy doing nothing (letting the balance sheet drain) or doing something (hiking rates). Maybe worth hedging the former with cheap spreads, what I will be doing anyway. Also, if oil slides hard enough that could weigh on stocks, as we have seen before, but maybe only enough to slow the train a little....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,055
  • May 2, 2017 5:05am May 2, 2017 5:05am
Quoting The Fool
...but if the geopoli spooks drift away and the DJT govt gets anything done in the big ticket items - health care, tax reform, infrastructure money, etc.....then stocks should keep grinding up, spoos 2,500 easy this year
^VIX crashing 10 handle, single digits could be the new normal?.....big macro data events upcoming, talk of nuclear war with NK still floating around, no worries....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,056
  • May 2, 2017 9:24am May 2, 2017 9:24am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}^VIX crashing 10 handle, single digits could be the new normal?.....big macro data events upcoming, talk of nuclear war with NK still floating around, no worries....
I think world is getting used to Threat of nuclear war. People either don't care or don't believe the rhetoric.

Also, mixed signals coming from world leader. One day he wants to bomb NK, next day he will be "honored to meet Kim jung Un"

too confusing...Market is so numb now that we may need asteroid strike to move VXX
  • #15,057
  • May 2, 2017 10:21am May 2, 2017 10:21am
Hey Fool, I am buying few May 12 VXX Calls strike 15.50 for 0.18. Seems like is great R:R to hold for few days. Hoping to double
  • #15,058
  • May 2, 2017 11:59am May 2, 2017 11:59am
Quoting charron
Hey Fool, I am buying few May 12 VXX Calls strike 15.50 for 0.18. Seems like is great R:R to hold for few days. Hoping to double
I rarely do long calls, typically will mitigate risk with spreads. There's a place for long vol trades - I haven't put on any sizable long vol trades on since the US elections last Fall. I put on some VXX spreads for Jun/Sep when the Korean war buzz started a few weeks ago. Typically I only fish long vol around some kind of scheduled vol-inducing event - I suppose the French runoff could fit the bill - a surprise LePen victory could move markets. Honestly, though, there is a a zombie-like complacency in US equities now and I doubt anything short of world war could really precipitate a correction.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,059
  • May 2, 2017 1:21pm May 2, 2017 1:21pm
I have not been doing any ER trades this cycle, but TSLA really looks ripe for about a 10% whack. I could see doing a super bear trade on it - a short call vert and a bear put vert for Friday....ER's tomorrow...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,060
  • May 3, 2017 11:17am May 3, 2017 11:17am
Quoting The Fool
big ER's for AMZN, GOOGL, etc....we should see bull market motor up to close the week, maybe new ath's?....FOMC next week.....once again I have to wonder now: is good news good news? or is good news bad news?
expect a non-event FOMC, no real macro direction in the near term so what else? - expect sideways to slow upgrind for US equities...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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