The public will never get a "good deal" in the markets | Forex Factory

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The public will never get a "good deal" in the markets

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 2:06pm Mar 15, 2017 1:55pm | Edited 2:06pm
Best example is going on at the moment with the dollar. The rate hike was a "sure thing", everybody was biased bullish, did you really think the professionals will give a free ride to the public? Seems like, but no, they never will. The majority always gets their money taken away.

The pros already tested the market and saw that there is no more demand for the dollar. This event just provided a distraction to get the public bullish on the dollar.

Wake up people, only watch what the professionals are doing. Ditch everything else, especially the news.
Price and volume reveals everything. The market moves on supply and demand.
  • #2
  • Mar 15, 2017 2:31pm Mar 15, 2017 2:31pm
Quoting Darastonius
Best example is going on at the moment with the dollar. The rate hike was a "sure thing", everybody was biased bullish, did you really think the professionals will give a free ride to the public? Seems like, but no, they never will. The majority always gets their money taken away. The pros already tested the market and saw that there is no more demand for the dollar. This event just provided a distraction to get the public bullish on the dollar. Wake up people, only watch what the professionals are doing. Ditch everything else, especially the news....
Buy the rumor, sell the news.
Fed rate hike was overdue and overbought this month. So are 2 more rate increases in 2017. Anything less is bearish, there will be no bullish surprises. Yellen just stated that there will be no back to back hikes or hikes like we saw in 2004-2006. With Eur/Usd, look to ECB policy developments, Gbp/Usd use BrExit developments, Usd/Jpy use the BoJ's minutes and any hints to changes of their easing policy (QE Infinity).
ForexOrderFlow.com Return This Year: 14.7%
  • #3
  • Mar 15, 2017 3:06pm Mar 15, 2017 3:06pm
I' am a member of the public and I read a good number of times that the rate hike was already price in leading up to today. Once the news broke and the market confirmed where it wanted to go( lower USD), I got on the train. Account up 10%.
Novice trader, please take my opinion with several grains of salt
  • #4
  • Mar 15, 2017 3:17pm Mar 15, 2017 3:17pm
Exactly, they priced in the lower dollar.

Even if they want to take it higher in the future, first they will squeeze the dollar longs, then possibly get them short, and when the majority is like: "well somehow it is bearish, i'm going short on the dollar", that's when they will start to turn it around, and strengthen the USD.

Or they already know that this is the top, and it won't even get stronger in the near future.

Just read the forum how many people were expecting a higher dollar and had a trade in that direction. Now image the same thing in the whole world. The short term traders are completely wiped, and we will see what they do in the next days/weeks.

By the way this same stuff goes on intraday too, every day. When the public is too one-sided, the pros are there to catch them naked.
Price and volume reveals everything. The market moves on supply and demand.
  • #5
  • Mar 15, 2017 5:26pm Mar 15, 2017 5:26pm
The trouble is, the professionals don't signal their intents. Forex is decentralized, so there are no reliable volume data, location of big stops or limit orders,etc.
The public is playing a mug's game. If you want to trade currencies, you're much better off trading futures - as least they are regulated markets.
Spot forex is a losing proposition.
  • #6
  • Mar 15, 2017 7:34pm Mar 15, 2017 7:34pm
Darastonius,

Do you believe that the "Pro's" are one homogeneous group of traders that all have the same opinion, that they in fact all give a nod to each other and say the market is leaning too far in this direction let's drive it in the other direction? Interested in hearing your thoughts.

B.
  • #7
  • Mar 15, 2017 7:52pm Mar 15, 2017 7:52pm
No conspiracy... Just order flow. For those of us who know how to read it we were long EUR/USD two weeks ago and long NZD/USD last Friday. There are many others but those are my two trades. But the ability to "see" and interpret the order flow in the market is what makes the difference. No excuses... No broker conspiracy against your tiny micro lot. Just old fashioned trading
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #8
  • Mar 15, 2017 7:56pm Mar 15, 2017 7:56pm
Quoting Bren0001
Darastonius, Do you believe that the "Pro's" are one homogeneous group of traders that all have the same opinion, that they in fact all give a nod to each other and say the market is leaning too far in this direction let's drive it in the other direction? Interested in hearing your thoughts. B.
It seems likely that a few firms would collaborate in that way together especially since that sort of thing happens in other fields and industries; it'd be hard to imagine it doesn't happen at all in the forex business. Whether or not they are all in cahoots with each other is another thing and that seems unlikely especially since it might be a mutual disadvantage for everyone to be a part of the same plan.
  • #9
  • Mar 16, 2017 1:53am Mar 16, 2017 1:53am
Quoting Darastonius
Best example is going on at the moment with the dollar. The rate hike was a "sure thing", everybody was biased bullish, did you really think the professionals will give a free ride to the public? Seems like, but no, they never will. The majority always gets their money taken away. The pros already tested the market and saw that there is no more demand for the dollar. This event just provided a distraction to get the public bullish on the dollar. Wake up people, only watch what the professionals are doing. Ditch everything else, especially the news....
A typical rate hike takes 6 months to 1 year to fully play out in the currency price. What you say today is the result of speculation.
  • #10
  • Mar 16, 2017 2:32am Mar 16, 2017 2:32am
This is what happens in the markets, this has been hyped up for months now and then on the day it finally gets executed (and to expectation) markets no longer have anything to chase.

If the Fed raised to 1.25% then this would have caused a bullish surge as it broke the expectation, otherwise a sell off was almost guaranteed; today was payday for many traders!
  • #11
  • Mar 16, 2017 2:42am Mar 16, 2017 2:42am
And whatever you do ,do not listen to outside influences.A well known 'guru'sent out an email yesterday explaining why we need to short the euro after the fed news.I was bullish on the euro but hesitated after reading his email..The result is i missed the entire move.I am alright at trading FX now and have (again)learnt my lesson.As previous post said......do your own analysis(and stick to it)
cheers
ado
  • #12
  • Mar 16, 2017 2:53am Mar 16, 2017 2:53am
Quoting Bren0001
Darastonius, Do you believe that the "Pro's" are one homogeneous group of traders that all have the same opinion, that they in fact all give a nod to each other and say the market is leaning too far in this direction let's drive it in the other direction? Interested in hearing your thoughts. B.
Not always.

1. When they lose, they lose better. Closing losses early, letting winners run, that's why they are pros.
2. They have access to an order book, they can see everything what other professionals and the public is doing without actually interacting with each other.
3. Sometimes they are actually discussing about manipulating the price, as you can see in these chatlogs: http://www.cftc.gov/idc/groups/publi...duct111114.pdf

Quoting Sis.yphus
{quote} A typical rate hike takes 6 months to 1 year to fully play out in the currency price. What you say today is the result of speculation.
I'm not saying on the longer term the dollar can't be bullish. They won't buck the whole trend in that case, it wouldn't even be possible.

What I'm saying is that the majority of public was thinking this: "I'll go short on EU, because the rate hike is a sure thing, it will spike down, and I'll get a free ride".

No, and this will never happen, that the majority gets a free ride. I'm not talking about individual traders, but as a herd. Same thing with intraday or any other timeframe. If you trade with the herd, and think like the herd, you will lose. THe professionals have taken the other side of your trade.

Quoting gravitist
The trouble is, the professionals don't signal their intents. Forex is decentralized, so there are no reliable volume data, location of big stops or limit orders,etc. The public is playing a mug's game. If you want to trade currencies, you're much better off trading futures - as least they are regulated markets. Spot forex is a losing proposition.
Actually they are showing their intentions, just they are very sneaky. Now I'm not saying the decision was tradeable safely, I sure won't trade events like this, even though it was visible, that they are preparing this.

Unfortunately there was rollover couple days ago, so the volume just started to come in in the June contract on EU, but the blue marked area is called "accumulation", where the professionals were sneakily taking the other side of all the public shorts.
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Price and volume reveals everything. The market moves on supply and demand.
  • #13
  • Mar 16, 2017 5:10am Mar 16, 2017 5:10am
Oh, the tears of someone who just lost a position, and is now blaming everyone else except himself...

Those tears are bitter... Been there, done that. We were all fooled by yesterday's events, thinking that dollar will keep climbing indefinitely. Turns out that is not going to happen...

Wipe your tears, stop hugging your pillow, and get up. Let's try to figure out where the markets are going to move next.
"Don't lose your cool, and you will fare well".
  • #14
  • Mar 16, 2017 5:17am Mar 16, 2017 5:17am
Ummm, I'm not sure what you are talking about, but okay.

I haven't lost a position, and don't blame anybody. I can trade in lockstep with the smart money.
Price and volume reveals everything. The market moves on supply and demand.
  • #15
  • Mar 16, 2017 7:18am Mar 16, 2017 7:18am
Quoting Darastonius
Best example is going on at the moment with the dollar. The rate hike was a "sure thing", everybody was biased bullish, did you really think the professionals will give a free ride to the public? Seems like, but no, they never will. The majority always gets their money taken away. The pros already tested the market and saw that there is no more demand for the dollar. This event just provided a distraction to get the public bullish on the dollar. Wake up people, only watch what the professionals are doing. Ditch everything else, especially the news....
Hey

Jesse Livermore was the best trader alive until he went broke and killed himself. Money rhymes with funny

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Time hides Nothing
  • #16
  • Mar 16, 2017 7:22am Mar 16, 2017 7:22am
Quoting Darastonius
Best example is going on at the moment with the dollar. The rate hike was a "sure thing", everybody was biased bullish, did you really think the professionals will give a free ride to the public? Seems like, but no, they never will. The majority always gets their money taken away. The pros already tested the market and saw that there is no more demand for the dollar. This event just provided a distraction to get the public bullish on the dollar. Wake up people, only watch what the professionals are doing. Ditch everything else, especially the news....
Also...

Look up the word "Expectations", But venture on to "P" and read up on "Probabilities"... Then maybe study the way every price move is based on liquidation.

Then you may have your answer, and in turn a new cunundrum

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Time hides Nothing
  • #17
  • Mar 16, 2017 9:14am Mar 16, 2017 9:14am
Exactly, the rate hike was expected so nothing new. If you just took a look at all pairs with USD you would have noticed that it is overbought all over the place. Pure Price Action was telling it quite obviously. The Bottom on GBPUSD was tested again and couldn’t get further. Its always like that it’s a perfect example of the “ Buy the rumor, sell the fact” saying as Ryan420 mentioned.
  • #18
  • Mar 16, 2017 9:34am Mar 16, 2017 9:34am
While the rate hike was expected and was no surprise, we can't deny the fact that a long squeeze on the usd took place.

Imo it have nothing to do with the rate hike per se, just normal market's activity.

Let's not get emotional
  • #19
  • May 2, 2017 5:54am May 2, 2017 5:54am
Okay, here is another example. Do you guys see that big ass gap on EU? Do you know why it didnt fill yet, also why it is hesitant to do so?

Because the herd sees it too and they are mainly short. Just look at the positions on FF, I know it only shows those who have TE, but probably a good proxy for the whole market.

Since the gap appeared you can see in the EURUSD thread, everybody is going crazy at every downtick "be ready, big fall coming now, the gap will be filled, get ready for big red candles, woooo". Because that is the conventional technical analysis, that "gaps fill be filled next day. Or the next day. Or the next". And see, nothing. I wonder how much money was lost in the grind above.

This thing won't fall until the herd is not squeezed out. If it falls anyway. They won't get a free ride down.
Price and volume reveals everything. The market moves on supply and demand.
  • #20
  • May 2, 2017 6:02am May 2, 2017 6:02am
Quoting Darastonius
Best example is going on at the moment with the dollar. The rate hike was a "sure thing", everybody was biased bullish
The problem is you didn't do your home work on this.

Go do a study or back test of the value of the Dollar Index in hiking cycles the results will surprise you.

The problem is it's not even as simple as the above then you have to include data like other Central bank policies and the effect the actual pair.

From the above you will see the " sure thing " you mentioned is merely economic theory like Keyens etc. and doesn't have a " a + b = c " effect.
When preparation meets oppertunity
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