The Options Thread

Rolling: VRX July 21st 10 short call to July 21st 9 short call. This is part of a covered call; cost basis in shares is now 8.01. A call away at 9.00 would be better than what I was originally shooting for ... .

Opening: SPY June 16th 225/228 short put vert for a .52/contract credit. Adding in a little long delta to my core SPY position in June ... .

Metrics:

Probability of Profit: 69%
Max Profit: $52/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $248/contract
Theta: .19
Delta: 6.26

Estimates of the first round results of the French elections will start to come in at 2000 CEST/1300 CST. The most favorable outcome for the equities markets is either a Macron/Fillon or Macron/Melenchon runoff, but both Fillon and Melenchon trail LePen in recent polling, so the most likely outcome is a Macron/LePen runoff. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_French_

LePen is considered unfavorable to the Euro, so should be interesting at market open on Sunday for Euro pairs.

These guys see a Melenchon/LePen runoff as a "worst case scenario," https://www.efxnews.com/story/35862/...elections-btmu, but it is probably also "the least likely scenario."

The week ahead: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/VI...X-AA-X-and-UA/

Whaddya know ... . The French polls were "basically right" this time, which is a refreshing change over Brexit, Trump/Clinton ... . That being said, there is still "the Final Countdown" on May 7th; LePen could still end up on top ... .

AA Earnings Play: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AA...2-36-IRON-FLY/

An obvious trade to do post-Frenchies -- an FXE short call vert: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/FX...CALL-VERTICAL/

Rolling SPY June 16th 222/226 short put vert to June 16th 230/233 for a .23 credit. Basically, an adjustment trade to gimme some long delta on this upmove.

Opening: TLT May 19th 119.5/June 16th 117 put diagonal for a .01 credit. Cost basis in the long is .50/contract, which I'll look to reduce through rolls, etc.

Opening: X May 5th 27/31/31/35 iron fly for a 2.23 credit. Max profit: $223/contract; Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $177/contract; BE's at 28.77/33.23. (Earnings today after market close).

Covering: X May 5th 31/35 short call vert for a .05 db. Rolling out the put side "as is" to the May 19th expiry for a .25 db; selling a May 19th 18/21/26/29 iron condor for .70 to finance. That's going to take some "massaging" ... .

Covering: XOP May 5th 35.5 short put for a .43 debit for a small (.10) profit. Selling the May 19th 34 for .47, giving myself a little more room. (Part of a diagonal). And of course, price has to rip up right after I do that ... . Lol.

Opening: Selling some cheap (buying power wise) ATM short put vert to add a touch of long delta to reduce chances of getting getting "gamma slammed": June 19th 238/239 short put vert for a .43 credit. Scratch point now 6.07 for my June SPY core. Delta at -12.81.

Covering: SPY June 16th 255/228 short put vert at 50% max (a .26 db). Scratch point now at 6.33; net delta -17.24. Basically washed out the ATM delta adjustment I just made ... . Lol.

In light of that, rolling SPY June 16th 234 (2x) short put to the 235 for a .25/contract credit (.50 total). Scratch now at 6.83; net delta -10.49.

Opening: X June 16th 25/27 short call vert for a .44 cr, which should delta balance this broken trade nicely. Scratch point at 3.06 ... .

Opening: X July 21st 26/28 short call vert for a .32 credit. Would have been better to ladder yesterday, but better late than never.

The week ahead: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EW...D-OIH-XOP-XLE/

Two bearish assumption FXE options setups: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/FX...PTIONS-SETUPS/

Hi Dear,
Can you please advice good option broker not US based but who allow to trade options for E-mini or SPY ?
I am form Kazakshtan and the US brokers like Options house, Schwab and others put taxes on income what i do not need.

Unfortunately, I'm only familiar with US brokers ... . Sorry I couldn't be of more help.

Two EWY (S. Korea ETF) trade ideas -- one defined, the other, -un: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EW...F-TRADE-IDEAS/

Hi, thank you anyway

Covering: X May 18th 18/21/26/29 iron condor for a .65 db (a .10 profit). Just wanted to take off the downside risk that the short put vert represents here ... .

Opening: AAPL May 12th 137/140/155/157.5 iron condor for a .57 credit. Opting for high POP% over profit:

Metrics:

POP%: 69%
Max Profit: $57/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $243
BE's at 139.43/155.57

Notes: I'll look to take profit somewhere north of 50% max ... .