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The Paradox System

  • #9,161
  • Apr 27, 2017 8:22am Apr 27, 2017 8:22am
Quoting tullegate
{quote} Entry on purple resistance, to go short. Will post self evaluation when trade closes. God bless you all. {image}
Was not a successful trade. I'm a little confused as to why it wasn't successful, because I even had the DB above the SAR to confirm the currency moving down, as well as the ema being above the purple.

I was asleep, so I didn't close the trade during the news releases. And I didn't close them on demo, just for the sake of learning.

If anyone can prove me insight if my analysis was wrong, I would really appreciate it.
"Cast your burden upon the Lord and He will sustain you"
  • #9,162
  • Apr 27, 2017 8:39am Apr 27, 2017 8:39am
For those who were in a trade did so AGAINST THE RULES; never trade when a high impact currency interest rate announcement is showing.

JPY - BOJ Policy Rate
EUR - Minimum Bid Rate

You wait and do not enter a trade UNTIL IT IS ALL OVER WITH.

The banks are waiting for the report and will do nothing until the reports are released. The JPY is always Tentative which means you have no idea when the report is going to be release. It also means you do not trade period.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,163
  • Apr 27, 2017 8:45am Apr 27, 2017 8:45am
Quoting dove_alliance
For those who were in a trade did so AGAINST THE RULES; never trade when a high impact currency interest rate announcement is showing. JPY - BOJ Policy Rate EUR - Minimum Bid Rate You wait and do not enter a trade UNTIL IT IS ALL OVER WITH. The banks are waiting for the report and will do nothing until the reports are released. The JPY is always Tentative which means you have no idea when the report is going to be release. It also means you do not trade period.
Just one little clarification on this matter, BOJ tentatives usually are released from 23 to 23:59EST, I considered that was "plenty of time" after I took the trade for it to progress, isn't it a safe assumption? I mean, I was sleeping when they hit, but if I was in real I would have closed positions at 22:55EST, would it be considered "right"?

Just asking to act accordingly and be safe next time,

Regards.

Edit. I misread something in your post, everything's clear now, thanks Dana.
"Know thyself."
  • #9,164
  • Apr 27, 2017 8:57am Apr 27, 2017 8:57am
Quoting miau1
{quote} Just one little clarification on this matter, BOJ tentatives usually are released from 23 to 23:59EST, I considered that was "plenty of time" after I took the trade for it to progress, isn't it a safe assumption? I mean, I was sleeping when they hit, but if I was in real I would have closed positions at 22:55EST, would it be considered "right"? Just asking to act accordingly and be safe next time, Regards. Edit. I misread something in your post, everything's clear now, thanks Dana.
You are missing the boat - there is a reason for the rule no-matter what you think; and the reason is because the banks are waiting for the release. Besides - you traded against the SAR. Even I would not trade against a Major Rate release.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,165
  • Apr 27, 2017 12:21pm Apr 27, 2017 12:21pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BOJ Rate.PNG Size: 71 KB

Lets talk about the rules on the H2 for the last two days:

What I am going to do is bring up a scenario and then ask you what is the rule for the scenario then it will be up to each of you in searching for the rule.

Starting from the far left you will see three green candles between the PSAR and EMA. Beginning with the 1st green candle you would know EMA is in a slider for the continuance of the uptrend.

What is the Rule of knowing EMA will be a slider?

You have a Green Arrow for an uptrend. Five hours later you have the MACD Arrow.

What is the Rule with both Arrows?

You have an Open candle above EMA and at Smooth in a slider..

What is the Rule for Entry with this open candle?

On top you had a MACD Arrow following with a red arrow showing the down.

What is the Rule in regards with these two arrows?

You have an EMA slider with the PSAR holding support. On that BAR you had the SAR.

Would you go long or short off the PSAR? What is the rule for this scenario?

On the Daily open you had the PSAR as Resistance; A green arrow with the MACD down. You also have the DB/SAR on the previous candle.

Is this trade a risk going long? What is the rule for an entry in this scenario?

Last EMA is showing a slider with the bands flat lined and indicators compressed.

What is the Rule for an entry with this scenario?


Now you traders spend a day or two and see how each of you come up with the rules and post your search and work together in finding the right rules for each scenario.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,166
  • Apr 27, 2017 1:38pm Apr 27, 2017 1:38pm
April 27, 2017 - Trading Plan - EURJPY

DAILY
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Support
PSAR - Support

Notes: 4 horsemen are pointing up with green fib. Also, DB is above SAR attached at 121.966.

2H
ROMAR - Support
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance

Notes: 4 horsemen shooting down with macdX and emaX pointing down, with red fib. DB and SAR attached at 120.593, to show the trend is going down.

1H
ROMAR - Support
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance

Notes: 4 horsemen are shooting down, with a green fib.

Entry: 4 horsemen on 1H and 2H are in sync for the down (ema above purple). Entered short (40/40) on 2H purple resistance. Also, as confirmation, a touch on smooth happened on the 1H.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: april27n.png Size: 68 KB
"Cast your burden upon the Lord and He will sustain you"
  • #9,167
  • Apr 27, 2017 7:34pm Apr 27, 2017 7:34pm
This what i have so far for people who wish to participate in Dove's Q to us all.
Some i have written down here may be right some may be wrong but am asking for the conversation and spirit between us all.
Dove's Q's are in bold. Quotes from posts are smaller font & referenced. Blue is my interpretation of or application of the rules. Time poor today, not everything answered as yet. Back in 12-14hrs perhaps.

What is the Rule with both MACD & EMA Arrows?
The trend is in the direction of the arrows. When you get both then this is strong confluence factor. This is just my understanding level at the moment. Havent been able to locate the reference for this as yet.

You have an Open candle above EMA and at Smooth in a slider....What is the Rule for Entry with this open candle?
if Smooth crosses Purple then EMA will cross Purple and the reversal is set provided the Parabolic had also flipped. (Post 39)
Enter at Smooth for the Long because Smooth is acting as Support in confluence with EMA

On top you had a MACD Arrow following with a red arrow showing the down. What is the Rule in regards with these two arrows?
no answer yet

You have an EMA slider with the PSAR holding support. On that BAR you had the SAR......Would you go long or short off the PSAR? What is the rule for this scenario?
no answer yet

On the Daily open you had the PSAR as Resistance; A green arrow with the MACD down. You also have the DB/SAR on the previous candle. Is this trade a risk going long? What is the rule for an entry in this scenario?
No answer yet

Last EMA is showing a slider with the bands flat lined and indicators compressed. What is the Rule for an entry with this scenario?
....Lets say you have EMA holding support for the uptrend. And you have Purple, White, and Smooth holding Resistance and they are only a few pips spread between support and resistance. What would you do? The answer is waiting on the breakout. And again; EMA is both Support and Resistance. (Post 21) The Bollinger Bands are also a deadly weapon during consolidation; it will do one of two things when the market hits the bands. It will either retrace back to EMA or retrace back to the opposite band; this happens when the bands are flat which places the market in consolidation. If you do get a hit on one of the bands during consolidation then get in and take profit at least to EMA
In a downtrend is a different story. Once the band is hit retrace are generally to Purple, White, or Smooth. When it gets ready to turn then the market will hit EMA and go into consolidation.
On an uptrend retraces off the band are generally to EMA for profit. (Post 21)
Rules for consolidation. Post 1680.
What will i do = One of 2 things - wait for breakout in this case in continuance of H2 EMA trend. Do not anticipate. Will wait for the Lower BB Hit back into H2 ROMAR & H2 EMA up trend. Trade from the S/R not the middle.
If you make up your own rules then the story is sad.....
  • #9,168
  • Edited Apr 28, 2017 8:36am Apr 27, 2017 8:08pm | Edited Apr 28, 2017 8:36am
Quoting OliveBranch
This what i have so far for people who wish to participate in Dove's Q to us all. Some i have written down here may be right some may be wrong but am asking for the conversation and spirit between us all. Dove's Q's are in bold. Quotes from posts are smaller font & referenced. Blue is my interpretation of or application of the rules. Time poor today, not everything answered as yet. Back in 12-14hrs perhaps. What is the Rule with both MACD & EMA Arrows? The trend is in the direction of the arrows. When you get both then this is strong confluence...
I'm really sleepy but I think I found the answer to the first two questions. My brain is 100% toasted, I'll post tomorrow as soon as I can with more details but:

1.-When to know EMA is a slider: look for Smooth crossing Purple and then if EMA doesn't cross Purple the next candle you have a slider, then it probably will continue the trend but you need to look for confluences.

2.-About the EMA&MACD arrows: If first EMA shows up and on the next candle MACD shows up in the same direction is a good entry point. If they show up in the same candle or in other orders means market is not... don't remember the word now... How do you say when something is not with the usual flow? I really will post better tomorrow with references and all but wanted to share what I got so far and is complicated to reference because I took it from my notes mostly.

Good night all.

Edit. Used numbers so we don't miss any answer, Oli you missed first one.
"Know thyself."
  • #9,169
  • Apr 27, 2017 9:19pm Apr 27, 2017 9:19pm
Ok Jumping in:

Q: What is the Rule of knowing EMA will be a slider?
A: Bar closes above slider.

Q: What is the Rule with both arrows?
A: EMA must come first for safe entry...if the other way around a reversal is expected shortly.

Q: What is the Rule for Entry with this open Candle?
A: Enter when bar opens above slider at Smooth.

Q: What is the Rule in regards with these two arrows?
A: They are in conflict, reversal will happen soon.

Q: Would you go long or short off the PSAR? What is the Rule for this scenario?
A: Long. Enter when SAR attaches to PSAR.

Q: Is this trade a risk going long? What is the Rule for an entry in this scenario?
A: Risky no. Enter long once Thistle box attaches (and is with the ROMAR trend).

Q: What is the Rule for an entry with this scenario?
A: Enter short at the open bar below slider.
-Mark
  • #9,170
  • Apr 28, 2017 8:36am Apr 28, 2017 8:36am
Quoting miau1
{quote} I'm really sleepy but I think I found the answer to the first two questions. My brain is 100% toasted, I'll post tomorrow as soon as I can with more details but: -When to know EMA is a slider: look for Smooth crossing Purple and then if EMA doesn't cross Purple the next candle you have a slider, then it probably will continue the trend but you need to look for confluences. -About the EMA&MACD arrows: If first EMA shows up and on the next candle MACD shows up in the same direction is a good entry point. If they show up in the same candle...
This is what I found about the other questions in my notes so far:

3.-Open candle above EMA and at smooth in a slider: this is an entry in itself I think.

4.-EMA and MACD arrows again: Conflict in the trend, there will be a pullback against ROMAR trend and should go back to ROMAR.

5.-Would you go long or short off PSAR, rule?: I think it's long and it has to do with the fact that there's a slider, but PSAR support should be nullified because market is consolidated due to D1 and White and Smooth crossed Purple already, right?

6.-Is this trade a risk going long? Rule?: Same entry rule than 3.-, so it's a good long I think.

7.- Compressed indicators in a slider, rule? The best thing to do is waiting for a breakout.
"Know thyself."
  • #9,171
  • Apr 28, 2017 11:11am Apr 28, 2017 11:11am
Quoting tullegate
April 27, 2017 - Trading Plan - EURJPY DAILY ROMAR - Resistance EMA - Support PSAR - Support Notes: 4 horsemen are pointing up with green fib. Also, DB is above SAR attached at 121.966. 2H ROMAR - Support EMA - Resistance PSAR - Resistance Notes: 4 horsemen shooting down with macdX and emaX pointing down, with red fib. DB and SAR attached at 120.593, to show the trend is going down. 1H ROMAR - Support EMA - Resistance PSAR - Resistance Notes: 4 horsemen are shooting down, with a green fib. Entry: 4 horsemen on 1H and 2H are in sync for the down...
Tullegate - before you post your evaluation I would like for you to really go through your trading plan and your entry on the reason why you should not have traded short. There were many issues in the 'why not' because your charts were showing the long. Then post your evaluation.

Everyone have a great and blessed weekend.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,172
  • Apr 28, 2017 11:28am Apr 28, 2017 11:28am
Quoting dove_alliance
{quote} Tullegate - before you post your evaluation I would like for you to really go through your trading plan and your entry on the reason why you should not have traded short. There were many issues in the 'why not' because your charts were showing the long. Then post your evaluation. Everyone have a great and blessed weekend.
I will definitely look into this Dana. I've also been working on your assignment you posted all morning. I'm hoping to have all the answers by tonight or tomorrow.
"Cast your burden upon the Lord and He will sustain you"
  • #9,173
  • Apr 28, 2017 11:28am Apr 28, 2017 11:28am
Quoting dove_alliance
{quote} Tullegate - before you post your evaluation I would like for you to really go through your trading plan and your entry on the reason why you should not have traded short. There were many issues in the 'why not' because your charts were showing the long. Then post your evaluation. Everyone have a great and blessed weekend.
Have a great weekend Dana.
Nobody can be told what The Matrix is. You'll have to see it yourself.
  • #9,174
  • Apr 28, 2017 9:18pm Apr 28, 2017 9:18pm
Starting from the far left you will see three green candles between the PSAR and EMA. Beginning with the 1st green candle you would know EMA is in a slider for the continuance of the uptrend.

What is the Rule of knowing EMA will be a slider?

Take note of the Rule in Knowing: This scenario is with the ROMAR uptrend.

Below you have a snippet showing White crossing Smooth with the MACD arrow crossing '0'. The reason this is an EMA slider is because EMA DID NOT SHOW the crossing of Purple with the White crossing Smooth.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EMA Slider 1.PNG Size: 17 KB

Below is showing the slider under Smooth for the continuation of the uptrend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EMA Slider 2.PNG Size: 25 KB

This snippet is showing the same scenario but with EMA tighter and at Purple for the reversal; but with ROMAR in a downtrend, Take note of the MACD arrow crossing Zero with the flip Parabolic.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EMA Slider 3.PNG Size: 14 KB

This snippet is showing the reversal with the right crossing of EMA at Purple with White and Smooth crossing. You had confluence with this entry on the same chart. Red Arrow first then the MACD Arrow and the flip of the Parabolic.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EMA Slider 4.PNG Size: 16 KB

When EMA goes into a slider it can also take you into a ranging mode if you are counter trading ROMAR. Keep that in mind.

The other 6 I will get too when I have the time.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,175
  • Apr 28, 2017 11:32pm Apr 28, 2017 11:32pm
You have a Green Arrow for an uptrend. Five hours later you have the MACD Arrow.

What is the Rule with both Arrows?

What I am going to do is give a few scenarios with both Arrows; The EMA trend arrows and the MACD zero crossing arrows and the Rules that are to be applied.

First arrow snippet is the RED followed with the MACD. This is a down swing showing below with the Red arrow followed by the MACD arrow going into a EMA slider.

You already know this is a slider with EMA not at Purple with White and Smooth showing a crossing on the next Bar. ROMAR is up with the Parabolic and also EMA as support. Going short is a total risk of losing your trade. The objective is being patient and wait for the right indicator for entry going North which would be the Green Arrow alert.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Aroows 1.PNG Size: 13 KB

The Alert for the EMA crossing had sounded off and entry on the slider going North is the objective. The Green Arrow is before the MACD crossing Zero.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Aroows 2.PNG Size: 13 KB


On this snippet you see the MACD Arrow showing up. This is letting you know the trend will continue. If you missed the EMA arrow you then have an opportunity for a second entry with an H2 full blown trend.

Now notice on top you had the MACD showing up before the RED down arrow. In this scenario with the MACD arrow first is telling you the rule is: NO ENTRY. And also take notice EMA is in a slider with ROMAR in an uptrend. Again patience and waiting for the next Green Arrow.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Aroows 3.PNG Size: 29 KB

On this Snippet below you got another Green Arrow going North off the EMA slider. Take note on the right price bar you have 60+ pips to the Parabolic with Entry at EMA.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Aroows 4.PNG Size: 17 KB


In this snippet is showing you was caught in a ranging mode. But with a 60+ resistance you got out with your 40.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Aroows 5.PNG Size: 17 KB

Let's do one more:

On this snippet you have approximately 20+ increments on the Price Bar with EMA , the Parabolic's, and ROMAR in an uptrend. On the left side you see a Red down arrow and the next bar the MACD against the trend (no entry against the trend). The following bar is your entry with the EMA Green Arrow showing the way into the trend. Five hours later you have the MACD crossing '0' in case you missed the EMA entry.

I never recommend counter trading unless you get to the point of knowing the rules precisely.

So lets move to the top and you have the RED Arrow at EMA for a counter trade with the MACD on the next bar. Let me warn you at this point. DO NOT EVER ANTICIPATE. You wait to see if you have a signal for a slider or a reversal.

As the Market moves forward you get the signal. You have EMA at Purple with the White crossing Smooth and the Parabolic flip. The question remains? How many pips to support which is ROMAR? With opening candle you have 40+ pips for the short. Your question would be do I take the risk? What I would be thinking is on Purple. For one thing the bar is out of balance for a retrace to Purple. If I could get higher for an entry it would give me the room for the spreed plus 40.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Aroows 6.PNG Size: 20 KB

Being Patient for the retrace entry is made with the Purple hit for 40..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Aroows 7.PNG Size: 14 KB

Good night.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,176
  • Apr 29, 2017 2:21am Apr 29, 2017 2:21am
I'm speechless... I had white-smooth cross in red on my notes -which means not 100% sure and pending for review-, and I changed it to Smooth cross of Purple after looking the charts for a few hours thinking I had that one wrong also... I feel so silly now.

I can't thank you enough for this, regards,

Pablo.
"Know thyself."
  • #9,177
  • Apr 29, 2017 10:41am Apr 29, 2017 10:41am
I'm going to add an extra with the SAR. For some reason most of you are having problems with the Rules in regard with the SAR. So let me go through a scenario with the market ranging.

In a ranging mode; usually the high and low ranging marks are 60 pips. And in order to place a 40 pip profit you always trade with the ROMAR trend. In this scenario below you have ROMAR as resistance. In ranging you are also in consolidation with the Parabolic, EMA, and the MACD Arrows flip-flopping.

The RULE is: ONE TRADE PER DAY. Greed will eventually destroy you. Always remember that.

On this screen shot below you see the ranging with the SAR. You have the BB's flat lined and ranging between the bands. Eventually you get the market hitting ROMAR resistance. The RULE for ranging is from resistance to the bottom or from support to the top. In this scenario it s from resistance to the bottom. What most of you are missing is the hit on ROMAR. If the market gets above resistance it will return back below. If the market gets below support if will return back above.

The last hit got above ROMAR, and closed above ROMAR with Parabolic as support and this is telling you - the market will return back below ROMAR.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ranging 1.PNG Size: 56 KB

And here is the proof with the breakout. If you missed the breakout you still have an entry with the open below Smooth. With the EMA Arrow and the next bar at Smooth with the MACD.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ranging 2.PNG Size: 25 KB

After the breakout you are back in the ranging mode with ROMAR as resistance. The RULE for the SAR IN TREND is take profit on the first connection and wait for the re-connection at resistance/support (depending on the ROMAR trend) which is the Parabolic. In consolidation you can trade both ways.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ranging 3.PNG Size: 46 KB

This screen shot is a trend. Take note of the DB/SAR attached on top. You take entry on top for your 40 and you wait until the SAR breaks away and reconnects at the Parabolic resistance for entry BACK INTO TREND. You never trade against the trend but only wait with patience and take the signal entry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ranging 4.PNG Size: 30 KB
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,178
  • Apr 29, 2017 11:16am Apr 29, 2017 11:16am
I want everyone to take great notice on each chart above in showing the moment with each scenario. All entries are in the moment in what the Paradox is saying. Study every scenario in how it is done in the moment. Study how the rules are being applied in the moment. For those who keep saying they are studying over and over again - guess what? You still have a lot of studying to do.

I will try to get another one done this evening.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,179
  • Apr 29, 2017 4:18pm Apr 29, 2017 4:18pm
Quoting dove_alliance
You have a Green Arrow for an uptrend. Five hours later you have the MACD Arrow. What is the Rule with both Arrows? What I am going to do is give a few scenarios with both Arrows; The EMA trend arrows and the MACD zero crossing arrows and the Rules that are to be applied. First arrow snippet is the RED followed with the MACD. This is a down swing showing below with the Red arrow followed by the MACD arrow going into a EMA slider. You already know this is a slider with EMA not at Purple with White and Smooth showing a crossing on the next Bar. ROMAR...
Did you mean PURPLE crossing SMOOTH instead of WHITE crossing SMOOTH?
  • #9,180
  • Apr 29, 2017 6:17pm Apr 29, 2017 6:17pm
Quoting rcbarlow
{quote} Did you mean PURPLE crossing SMOOTH instead of WHITE crossing SMOOTH?
He means ema at purple or crossing purple when smooth is crossing white.
Life is too short to have anything but delusional notions about yourself.
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