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vsa with Malcolm

  • #28,561
  • Apr 19, 2017 11:20pm Apr 19, 2017 11:20pm
you guys heard about this?

"The trading robot developed by Aidyia ingests vast amounts of information, including news and social media, and uses its reasoning powers to recognize connections and patterns in the data. It then uses those patterns to make predictions about the market, which it translates into buy and sell orders—all without any direct human involvement."

https://qz.com/389647/artificial-int...eking-an-edge/


What if softwares like Tradeguider starts using artificial intelligence? at this rate I think computers will be the future smart money & humans will be reduced to herd
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #28,562
  • Apr 25, 2017 2:59am Apr 25, 2017 2:59am
Quoting Vcv13
you guys heard about this? "The trading robot developed by Aidyia ingests vast amounts of information, including news and social media, and uses its reasoning powers to recognize connections and patterns in the data. It then uses those patterns to make predictions about the market, which it translates into buy and sell ordersall without any direct human involvement." https://qz.com/389647/artificial-int...eking-an-edge/ What if softwares like Tradeguider starts using artificial intelligence?...
Sounds pretty futuristic. As a trader we all desire to be able to eliminate emotions completely. It's totally understood. So having computers do all the work sounds fair. However, markets are not driven pure mechanical. Aritficial Intelligence sounds cool. But is artificial intelligence really better? I think once you learn how to deal with your emotions there is no articial intelligence going to be able to outperform you. But being able to deal with emotions is the point. Easier said than done.
Never stop to learn
  • #28,563
  • Apr 25, 2017 3:17am Apr 25, 2017 3:17am
It's sad that participation here diminished. I really like this thread and look forward to master vsa.
I see merit to it, but can get confusing at times.

I hope the pros will soon jump in and advise us and point the right direction. Looking forward for
your feedback.

Below is my my chain of thought on NGAS.

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Yesterday we did have an average spread closing off the lows on slighly increased volume. This could be stopping volume and may mark
the end of a pullback.

Looking at H4 for more details.

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I did point out a couple down candles. These are down candles/bar on increased volume. These candles alone are bearish. Down on increasing volume.
The second down bar has a wider spread, but volume is smaller compared to the first one. The smaller wick could indicate stopping volume.
The last highlighted candle shows the greatest volume and we have a long lower wick. This must be absorption volume. The low dips into an area of previous high volume.
Another thing to consider is, price did try to puch through a previous gap. But without success. I'd assume, if this market was bearish, we should see a rapid move down on high volume. Or another gap down through the area of support (indicated by the previous high volume level).

The H4 market structure suggests a bearish trend. We have lower lows and lower highs. But the last (the current) lower low shows signs of strength.
The daily market strucuture is still bullish and price is at a level of interest. The question now is, will we have another down day? If so, will volume indicate strength or weakness. For now I am monitoring the H1 timeframe for more details.

Hope it is easy to follow my chain of thought. Looking forward for your valuable feedback.

Happy trading,
Wmn
Never stop to learn
  • #28,564
  • Edited 4:29am Apr 25, 2017 3:46am | Edited 4:29am
A question about GJ

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Price is at a previous top and having struggle to move above. There are volume surges each at the top.
Now to move above the previous top we would need volume. Since the recent volume surges had no
follow through this shows weakness. I'd assume the market needs to fall before it can break the top.
I drew in a trend channel, which has a sharp slope upwards. But being at a previous top, I anticipate a
drop in prices.

Looking forward for your feedback.

Edit: The idea is off the table.

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Price did violate and move sufficient enough upward to consider a counter move.
If there is a pullback might consider to go with the trend provided there is a nice trigger.

Cheers,
Wmn
Never stop to learn
  • #28,565
  • Apr 25, 2017 5:18am Apr 25, 2017 5:18am
These are my thoughs on GBP vs AUD

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The chart displays some thoughs of mine. I am looking for a weak really to the previous top, possibly a little higher
inside the yellow rectangle. I am not looking to trade the up-thrust. Price has continued up after effort to rise.
The move up however was weak. The up-thrust adds up on signs of weakness. Ideally we see further SOW
in the 1,71 area or above inside the yellow rectangel which would be my target area for setups.

As always looking forward for your valuable feedback.

Wmn
Never stop to learn
  • #28,566
  • Apr 25, 2017 11:34am Apr 25, 2017 11:34am
USD vs CHF very high volume on a down bar with the close in the middle.
This action suggests stopping volume. Compared with the recent past volume
this is very high appearing at a support level.

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The next candle is down and on low volume which would confirm the potential buying.
Never stop to learn
  • #28,567
  • Apr 26, 2017 2:15am Apr 26, 2017 2:15am
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The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #28,568
  • Apr 26, 2017 3:05am Apr 26, 2017 3:05am
Quoting Vcv13
you guys heard about this? "The trading robot developed by Aidyia ingests vast amounts of information, including news and social media, and uses its reasoning powers to recognize connections and patterns in the data. It then uses those patterns to make predictions about the market, which it translates into buy and sell ordersall without any direct human involvement." https://qz.com/389647/artificial-int...eking-an-edge/ What if softwares like Tradeguider starts using artificial intelligence?...
I used to think this. Is there any results from the Robot though? Human trading is done on human psychology; while a machine may predict this with great accuracy, it couldn't rival the human mind's full potential.

In markets there is volatility, reasoning & emotion which humans are much better at understanding. Remember: who created the robots?

A
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #28,569
  • Apr 26, 2017 3:25am Apr 26, 2017 3:25am
Quoting Vcv13
{image}
Am eyeing this pair also.

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Our tick volume looks quite different though. I know about this issue so I also monitor this pair
on MT4 as Hawkins suggested.


There is a daily level a little further below that I highlighted with the yellow rectangle.
I'll be keeping an eye on the level. Feel there is a good chance that price will be driven to that level.

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How are you going to go about this pair? Since your chart shows effort to move down but there is no results.
Is that a signal you consider?
Never stop to learn
  • #28,570
  • Apr 26, 2017 3:32am Apr 26, 2017 3:32am
Quoting CannonScout
{quote} Is there any results from the Robot though?
Hedge fund Renaissance Technologies is looked upon by Wall Street with awe and envy in equal measure. Particularly, Medallion Fund, an employees only fund it runs. Bloomberg last year wrote the fund has returned more than $55 billion, making it more profitable than funds run by feted veterans such as George Soros.


https://factordaily.com/ai-big-data-...funds-fintech/
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #28,571
  • Apr 26, 2017 3:34am Apr 26, 2017 3:34am
Quoting Whatsmyname
{quote} Am eyeing this pair also.

on LO there was some stopping action seen on NZDUSD
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #28,572
  • Apr 26, 2017 1:32pm Apr 26, 2017 1:32pm
As mentioned in the above posts, price did penetrate the yellow rectangle. I did refrain from taking position.

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Below is the chart using mt4. Volume is different.

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Now price is bouncing off the daily support level. I'll wait for the daily close to evaluate the next steps.

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Being still new to VSA it is hard to judge the interrelation between volume and price. I was tempted at times to
take a long position on volume surges then followed by what seemed to be no supply bars. For example the first
highlighted candle is closing near the lows on increased volume. The next candle closes level in decreased volume.


Wmn
Never stop to learn
  • #28,573
  • Apr 26, 2017 6:54pm Apr 26, 2017 6:54pm
Trade from today AUDCAD - made some comments on the chart
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  • #28,574
  • Apr 26, 2017 7:02pm Apr 26, 2017 7:02pm
Quoting Whatsmyname
Being still new to VSA it is hard to judge the interrelation between volume and price. I was tempted at times to take a long position on volume surges then followed by what seemed to be no supply bars. For example the first highlighted candle is closing near the lows on increased volume. The next candle closes level in decreased volume. Wmn
This made me confuse also when i first started trading VSA.. the best thing I can say is wait for the trend to change. In the most of times the market doesn't reverse immediately, accumulation and distribuition take some bars to develop. Let the market prove to you that the buying that you have seen was enough to make the market move upward changing the trend and only then look for buying opportunities
  • #28,575
  • Apr 27, 2017 1:55am Apr 27, 2017 1:55am
Quoting odines
{quote} This made me confuse also when i first started trading VSA.. the best thing I can say is wait for the trend to change. In the most of times the market doesn't reverse immediately, accumulation and distribuition take some bars to develop. Let the market prove to you that the buying that you have seen was enough to make the market move upward changing the trend and only then look for buying opportunities
Highly appreciate your charts with the notes. Would be great of you if you sticked around.

Accumulation and distribution is not always easy to spot. I understand market strucuture and try to incorporate it. But it is still confusing at times.Sometimes price shows struggle breaking a previous high, rests for a short while, then breaks the high anyway, when you think the high should have held.

If I may, I'd like to share a trade I took yesterday.

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Entry is marked wjth the green line and exit with red line

Price formed an UT on average volume. As a Candlestick pattern this is a Pinbar at a high point.
So I went to m5 and looked to trade on m5.

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Where the green line starts is the exact entry point.

At the time of the entry it looked like a good spot to take short trade. A previous high is barely violated.
Was that a premature short? What should I have considered before taking the trade?

At the time I got stopped out, I wanted to take another short. But I refrained. At that point I was not
able to identify if I was going to revenge trade or really saw the signal. So I let it go. There will be more
trades to come and am not really looking to take revenge on the market. That would be the dumbest
thing ever. Anyway.

Highly appreciate your thoughts
Never stop to learn
  • #28,576
  • Apr 27, 2017 6:42am Apr 27, 2017 6:42am
Stalking NZD vs USD

Price is back at the daily support level.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NU H1.png Size: 79 KB


We have narrow spread-down bars and low volume as price approaches
this level.

The question that comes to mind is, is this already a good sing to look for possible longs?
Never stop to learn
  • #28,577
  • Apr 27, 2017 8:14am Apr 27, 2017 8:14am
another reverse shakeout EG

where can we learn about such events like Draghi speech in advance?

the EurUSD thread is very active, don't remember anyone mentioning this.
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #28,578
  • Apr 27, 2017 6:43pm Apr 27, 2017 6:43pm
Quoting Whatsmyname
{quote} Highly appreciate your charts with the notes. Would be great of you if you sticked around. Accumulation and distribution is not always easy to spot. I understand market strucuture and try to incorporate it. But it is still confusing at times.Sometimes price shows struggle breaking a previous high, rests for a short while, then breaks the high anyway, when you think the high should have held. If I may, I'd like to share a trade I took yesterday. Entry is marked wjth the green line and exit with red line Price formed an UT on average volume....
The first thing to note is the trend, which is up.. look at the higher time frames like 30, 1 hour and 4 four, they are all pointing upwards. When im picking some pairs to trade I first look for trend alignment (usually 15- 4 hour) and then look at the pair itself: if the trend is up i would be looking for pairs with strenght in the background; if the trend is down i would be lookinf for pairs with weakness in the background. In other words i look for pairs with trend and background in synthony, pointing to the same side. In this case if there was truly weakness in the background I would be waiting for trend to change at higher time frames before taking a short position. Take a look at the chart below, price is making higher highs higher lows, the place that you have entered looks like a pullback at first

The second thing to note is volume and result of the volume: In a strong up trend like that I would like to see bear climactic volume followed by a down move to considerer lookin for short positions. High volume shows that bears are trying to assume control of the market, the result shows how sucessfull they were. At the chart that you have posted (4 hour) there's a lack of climatic volume.. the volume at the UT is about the same as the other bars for example. Climactic action is important because this is gonna show that the bears are trying to assume control of the market, control. If theres was not enough sellers to move the market down prices still gonna rally with supply in the background. Price can move down on low volume as well (when demand is diminishing) but in the same way I personally would wait for smart money to position themselves (showed by high volume) before entering at a trade. Today we had a better signal of weakness, ill take a look at EUR pairs tomorrow.
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  • #28,579
  • Apr 27, 2017 11:25pm Apr 27, 2017 11:25pm
Ok so now they tell me about the conference!

ladies, make it a habit of checkin the Calendar at the start of your day, trust me the feelin of being shaken kicked out is not quite pleasant.

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anyway, today we have to look out for the Advance GDP, so the impact level is high. I'm bearish on EurUsd, looks like distribution is going on here, but it needs confirmation & hope to see it on LO (if not then mebbe on NYO). We'll have to see if they'll use this news to mark down or just another reverse shakeout (both are SoW).

whatever, I'm not going long on EU.
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #28,580
  • May 2, 2017 3:56am May 2, 2017 3:56am
Quoting odines
{quote} The first thing to note is the trend, which is up.. look at the higher time frames like 30, 1 hour and 4 four, they are all pointing upwards. When im picking some pairs to trade I first look for trend alignment (usually 15- 4 hour) and then look at the pair itself: if the trend is up i would be looking for pairs with strenght in the background; if the trend is down i would be lookinf for pairs with weakness in the background. In other words i look for pairs with trend and background in synthony, pointing to the same side. In this case if...
Thanks for your clear answer. It makes sense to wait for the higher timeframe to change and go in line with the higher timeframe. I seem to put more emphasis on the no demand bars rather then look for high activity. The up move was on low volume (referring to the daily). This makes me get interested as I doubt that a bull move can sustain on low volume. Apparently a move up can last longer than you think.

Now we have a structure change on H1 same pair with an increase in activity on a bear candle.
I like the level on H1 based on market structure.

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I use EUR/NZD as referrence to understand the concept and your thoughs better and in order to maintain the points made on this pair. I am not keen on trading this asset, but it is interesting to see how this pair develops as we observe and talk about this pair.
There was climatic action last week with a close in the middle followed by a low volume up move. Now structure has changed and price made a lower low.
The daily closed as a wide spread down closing on the lows. But on low volume.

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Based on the points above, I'd get interested in looking for shorting opportunities close to the red line.
Never stop to learn
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