Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 423 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #8,441
  • Apr 26, 2017 7:01am Apr 26, 2017 7:01am
Exactly kjg30 in a uptrend demand has been created or respected, supply has been removed/invalidated and we have 2 area opposing supply remove, so we are in a uptrend on the monthly. Cheers.
  • #8,442
  • Apr 26, 2017 7:15am Apr 26, 2017 7:15am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYDaily.png Size: 71 KB


The U/J daily is in a down trend with supply in control, if this supply is removed the daily will be in an uptrend with the CP just below the gap the new demand in control. Until the supply is removed new demand levels can not be drawn
  • #8,443
  • Apr 26, 2017 10:50am Apr 26, 2017 10:50am
Quoting Hyena
Hi Richie-Rees, in my sight on USDJPY Monthly is UP not Consolidation,look at this chart.. {image} Alfonso it's correct??Thanks..
Quoting Hyena
Hi Richie-Rees, in my sight on USDJPY Monthly is UP not Consolidation,look at this chart.. {image} Alfonso it's correct??Thanks..
Hello Hyena,

On the monthly I have used 3 CPs to draw an aggressive TL - where you have 2 I have interpreted that as a rally followed by a drop base drop - I could be completely wrong!

Weekly DT and price at fresh weekly CP today - whilst the CP has not removed supply given weekly DT, going with the trend.

Daily supply (tested once previously and for a second time today) is nested inside fresh weekly CP.

4 Hour supply (fresh) is nested inside daily supply - this has been triggered today.

I am fairly new to this so every day a school day!

Cheers.
  • #8,444
  • Apr 26, 2017 11:08am Apr 26, 2017 11:08am
where supply in control on the weekly kjg30?? here's my chart on the weekly on USDJPY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Number 1 do you mean supply in control kjg30 ?? imagine tomorrow price running runing and running price not pullback, so if it's (number 1) supply in control on the weekly you are not allowed to go long/buy on daily timeframe until it broken ! thats the rule,because weekly is higher than daily timeframe . Will you waiting for it (SZ broken)? if you waiting it broken you will Missed opportunity. Do you understand what i mean? so, for me supply in control is number 2 (for now) simple as that!
weekly downtrend, supply in control (number 2) bias is long because monthly is an uptrend so wait brand new area demand on the weekly (wait SZ number 2 taken out or price break a trendline etc etc)
Remember this is just my analysis,maybe right maybe wrong!
Cheers.
  • #8,445
  • Apr 26, 2017 11:28am Apr 26, 2017 11:28am
kjg30 on daily timeframe, trendline number 1 is weekly trendline not daily trendline , daily trendline is number 2 (2 peaks) if you draw trendline please remember the LATEST 2 peaks or 2 valley,and after 3 cp you allowed to draw the trendline. That's the rule!
And the latest DZ you draw is incorrect. see the pict below..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture2.PNG Size: 116 KB

Make sense kjg30??
Cheers.
  • #8,446
  • Apr 26, 2017 12:02pm Apr 26, 2017 12:02pm
hello to Richie-Rees..you are not wrong, trading is like a art maybe you look it's cp but i look it's peak maybe i look it's cp but you look it's valley etc etc..but,in this case on USDJPY the definition of a uptrend is demand has been created or respected, supply has been removed/invalidated and we have 2 area opposing supply remove, so we are in a uptrend on the monthly. Thats is monthly is UP.
Let me clear your question,see the chart below..
Attached Image

Do you mean this Richie?? If first zone is CP, are you draw like this? (see the chart below)
Attached Image

If first zone is CP and you draw like that you got a problem..that's not CP my friend,that's Rally Base Drop (Peak) and you draw zone must be like this (see the chart below)
Attached Image

Make sense My Friend?
Because you must think the logic and read a price over and over.OK?
Cheers.
  • #8,447
  • Edited 1:14pm Apr 26, 2017 12:50pm | Edited 1:14pm
Quoting Hyena
hello to Richie-Rees..you are not wrong, trading is like a art maybe you look it's cp but i look it's peak maybe i look it's cp but you look it's valley etc etc..but,in this case on USDJPY the definition of a uptrend is demand has been created or respected, supply has been removed/invalidated and we have 2 area opposing supply remove, so we are in a uptrend on the monthly. Thats is monthly is UP. Let me clear your question,see the chart below.. {image} Do you mean this Richie?? If first zone is CP, are you draw like this? (see the chart below) {image}...
Hello,

Thanks for the clear up on zone plotting.

Having watched a few of Alfonso's videos I have a few questions regarding CPs, TLs and direction changes.

CPs: Good to take with the trend but when price hits opposing S/D they are lower probability zones.

TL: TL break + removal of opposing S/D = trend change & ascending or descending TL + removal of opposing S/D = trend change.

Judging by your monthly analysis CPs removed but no trend line break or ascending TL - so is it not DT? For me, I noted a TL break but discounted CPs given they not removed opposing S/D so DT remains - I could be completely wrong but my two cents.

I am not hear to preach, just happy to find out more from those knowing and using it successfully.

Cheers.
  • #8,448
  • Apr 27, 2017 7:51am Apr 27, 2017 7:51am
CPs: Good to take with the trend but when price hits opposing S/D they are lower probability zones.
My answer is : Correct! you need confirmation on lower TF if you want going long or short.

TL: TL break + removal of opposing S/D = trend change
My answer is : Top Down Analysis will tell you AND REMEMBER you can't predict or assume it will happen,BUY LOW SELL HIGH IN THE CURVE,LOCATION IS THE KEY!

TL: Ascending or Descending TL + removal of opposing S/D = trend change.
My answer is : Correct! it called a downtrend IF Descending TL has been created and remove at least one area demand OR two area of demand has been remove.
it called a uptrend IF Ascending TL has been created and remove at least one area supply OR two area of supply has been remove.

Richie,Trend is not a straight line,The RULES tell you everything on your chart.
Make Sense Richie. Cheers.
  • #8,449
  • Apr 27, 2017 12:32pm Apr 27, 2017 12:32pm
Quoting Hyena
CPs: Good to take with the trend but when price hits opposing S/D they are lower probability zones. My answer is : Correct! you need confirmation on lower TF if you want going long or short. TL: TL break + removal of opposing S/D = trend change My answer is : Top Down Analysis will tell you AND REMEMBER you can't predict or assume it will happen,BUY LOW SELL HIGH IN THE CURVE,LOCATION IS THE KEY! TL: Ascending or Descending TL + removal of opposing S/D = trend change. My answer is : Correct! it called a downtrend IF Descending TL has been created...
Cheers dude!
  • #8,450
  • Apr 29, 2017 6:11am Apr 29, 2017 6:11am
Hello traders, This may / may not be off topic.
I'm on forex tester currently trying to gain confidence before going live so , here's a chart.

Would you guys go long on the most recent demand zone on the daily? Why or why will you not? Do let me know! Thanks.
Any help greatly appreciated .

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.
  • #8,451
  • Apr 29, 2017 11:29am Apr 29, 2017 11:29am
Hello Isaacpeh
My answered is : (look this chart carefully with sequence top down analysis from monthly weekly and daily)
Scenario 1 :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Scenario 2 :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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FOR NOW : SHORT BIAS! LONG NOT ALLOWED!
Make Sense Isaacpeh?
Cheers.
  • #8,452
  • Apr 30, 2017 6:54am Apr 30, 2017 6:54am
Quoting Hyena
Hello Isaacpeh My answered is : (look this chart carefully with sequence top down analysis from monthly weekly and daily) Scenario 1 : {image} Scenario 2 : {image} FOR NOW : SHORT BIAS! LONG NOT ALLOWED! Make Sense Isaacpeh? Cheers.
Thanks for your view on this chart. Maybe I should've put my view on it on my post earlier.

What I think it's long bias around 1.1975 daily demand zone.

Monthly demand zone is in control since supply zone got tested before the newest demand zone is created (TL Break) and tested again. therefore Monthly demand is in control.

Weekly is supply in control

I would go long on the daily since supply has been tested and I'd expect a bigger penetration. Having monthly as my backup since it's demand in control too.

What are your thoughts on this?
The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.
  • #8,453
  • Apr 30, 2017 8:45am Apr 30, 2017 8:45am
isaacpeh, i have explain to you very clear and obvious, and i know what you mean..let see this chart again..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture3.PNG Size: 420 KB

see number 2, price now tested supply zone twice on the monthly, RIGHT???
So, on the monthly FOR NOW supply in control NOT demand in control, Have you read WHAT IS SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN CONTROL ??? let me tell you WHAT IS SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN CONTROL
SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN CONTROL IS : This is the area that was previously fresh or not fresh which has not been broken or taken out. If the zone has been touched 10 times and the distal line of the zone has not been broken the zone is still valid the zone is still in control. You can't and should not assume that you can buy In the high or sell in the low of curve and assume that it will be broken / taken out. The market will showing you when the zone is broken / taken out. You are not a market nobody markets.

It's clear isaacpeh?? IF YOU PREDICT AND ASSUME IT WILL HAPPEN,YOU WILL LOSE MANY-MANY TIMES!
so, monthly supply in control (high in the curve) = SHORT SHORT SHORT
weekly supply in control (high in the curve) = SHORT SHORT SHORT
Why you would going long on daily if monthly and weekly supply is in control ?????

Make sense isaacpeh??
Cheers.
  • #8,454
  • Apr 30, 2017 10:11am Apr 30, 2017 10:11am
Quoting Hyena
isaacpeh, i have explain to you very clear and obvious, and i know what you mean..let see this chart again.. {image} see number 2, price now tested supply zone twice on the monthly, RIGHT??? So, on the monthly FOR NOW supply in control NOT demand in control, Have you read WHAT IS SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN CONTROL ??? let me tell you WHAT IS SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN CONTROL SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN CONTROL IS : This is the area that was previously fresh or not fresh which has not been broken or taken out. If the zone has been touched 10 times and the distal line...

Thanks Hyena! I think I understand now! I feel alot of emotion reading this Haha.

Anyways yes, I understand what you're trying to tell me now. Thanks for taking the time to read my posts and explaining them to me!
The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.
  • #8,455
  • Apr 30, 2017 11:00am Apr 30, 2017 11:00am
Hahaha you'r welcome my friend...
Glad to hear you understand now,please take a lot lot of time to practice,Follow the RULES of Alfonso has been created and NEVER against IT..
Be Patient be Passion and be Persistance..OK!

Cheers.
  • #8,456
  • Apr 30, 2017 4:54pm Apr 30, 2017 4:54pm
Quoting Hyena
Hahaha you'r welcome my friend... Glad to hear you understand now,please take a lot lot of time to practice,Follow the RULES of Alfonso has been created and NEVER against IT.. Be Patient be Passion and be Persistance..OK! Cheers.

Is there a rule book or trade plan you could point me to or are these rules from watching mr muneros videos and going through this thread.
  • #8,457
  • May 1, 2017 6:06am May 1, 2017 6:06am
Hi Alfonso, thank you for your education. It's much appreciated. Two questions if I may:
1) You mention a 5-10% monthly target. Is this possible to achieve just trading the FOREX market? I ask because you also do videos on shares and other instruments. If possible what's the minimum FX pairs to watch to achieve the same monthly target?
2) You mention you don't take into account news event but how do you protect against large news events such as BREXIT or Swiss Bank unpegging in 2015 (negative balance) when you set and forget your trades?
Many thanks!
  • #8,458
  • May 1, 2017 7:02am May 1, 2017 7:02am
Quoting Billy2000
Hi Alfonso, thank you for your education. It's much appreciated. Two questions if I may: 1) You mention a 5-10% monthly target. Is this possible to achieve just trading the FOREX market? I ask because you also do videos on shares and other instruments. If possible what's the minimum FX pairs to watch to achieve the same monthly target? 2) You mention you don't take into account news event but how do you protect against large news events such as BREXIT or Swiss Bank unpegging in 2015 (negative balance) when you set and forget your trades? Many thanks!...
Hello there, it's possible to achieve 5-10% monthly on forex pairs by trading the clear imbalances on 40-50 liquid forex cross pairs. I don't take into account news events, Brexit? That was not a new event, it was an earthquake, I didn't trade it neither do I trade CHF cross pairs, never did because they are mirrors of EURO cross pairs.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,459
  • May 1, 2017 7:04am May 1, 2017 7:04am
Quoting 666fx
{quote} Is there a rule book or trade plan you could point me to or are these rules from watching mr muneros videos and going through this thread.
There is a free supply and demand ebook with the basic rules you can download from http://www.set-and-forget.com/supply...uide-on-ebook/ those are the basic rules to start with, there are many more rules together with other kind of setups to trade supply and demand imbalances, that will get you started in supply and demand.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,460
  • May 1, 2017 9:48am May 1, 2017 9:48am
Hi Mr Alfonso and mates,
is weekly supply still in control or the price migth go up due to lot of trading in that zone? thank you
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