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Key To Markets - ECN Broker

Key to Markets is an independent brokerage firm offering access to the financial markets for Institutional, Corporate and Private Clients of any country.

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KEY TO MARKETS NZ Limited is a company registered in New Zealand, a Registered Financial Services Provider and a member of FSCL, an approved External Disputes Resolution (EDR) scheme.
KEY TO MARKETS NZ Limited is wholly-owned and controlled by KEY TO MARKETS (UK) Limited a company registered in the United Kingdom and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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On our blog we regularly publish fundamental and technical analysis on our main forex pairs and commodities.

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EURUSD-Net short positioning in EUR rose

EURUSD snaps the two weeks downtrend at lower Bollinger band earlier fails at breakout level. Following a weak NFP data (Apr07) the U.S dollar rejected at three-month descending daily trendline on Monday session. French election campaign officially started on Monday (April 10) may expect some risk during this week. As Marine Le Pens low probability of victory, we expect the risk will be on the higher side this short week.



FX positioning

Nomura (April 07)-Leveraged funds net short positioning in EUR rose after declining for three consecutive weeks (to 40% vs. 36% last week). Max net shorts in the last year stands at 75%, which was last seen in August 2016. Asset managers net long positioning in EUR fell to 26% vs. 28% last week.



Review

February 2017, French manufacturing output continued to decrease for the third month in a row -1.6%

Germany foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 21.0 billion euros in February 2017

Germany production in industry was up by 2.2% in February 2017

Eurozone unemployment rate decreased in February to 9.5% from 9.6%.

Final services PMI revised downward from 56.5 to 56.0

Manufacturing PMI at 56.2 at near six-year high as growth accelerates in Germany, Italy and France


Technical analysis:

EURUSD flat on Monday session snaps the two-week downtrend manages to hold the lower daily Bollinger band.

The price breakdown the three-month ascending trendline extend the decline of 50% retracement of the 1.0339-1.0905 rally.

The daily BB finds at 1.0570 and 61.8 fib finds at 1.0550 below these 1.0490 Feb 22nd low exists. We expect the price likely to find support between 1.0570 and 1.0500 expect a retracement to 1.0650 and 1.07.

Alternatively, further downfall expected below 1.0490 to 1.0450, 1.04 and 1.0360 levels. Potential resistance seems between 1.0680 and 1.0720 levels.

TRADE NOW

EUR/USD - Range trading expected ahead of the French election

Risk sentiment remains the key theme for the week ahead besides, French election looming.

Fundamental Analysis

Past Events review:

1. In March 2017, French consumer prices rose by 0.6% over a month and by 1.1% year on year
2. The Germany CPI rose by 0.2% in March 2017, on y/y basis 1.6% higher in March 2017.
3. German Economic Sentiment Continues to Improve. The indicator now stands at 19.5 points, thereby reaching its highest level since August 2015.

Upcoming Key Events:

Wed April 19:

1. Final EA CPI y/y forecast 1.50% vs 1.50%
2. EA Trade Balance forecast 18.6B vs 15.7B
3. Scheduled speech of ECB Executive Board Memberss Coeure and Praet
   During this forum a view on monetary policy may be presented.
   The market will be looking for further clarification on the ECBs appetite for policy normalisation following recent dovish rhetoric that has weighed on the EUR.

Fri, April 21:

1. PMI readings.

ISTITUTIONAL FORECASTS:
Barclays (April 16):
A moderation in euro area flash PMIs is likely to be the focus in an otherwise quiet week and should weigh on the EUR. We forecast the composite PMI drop to 56.1 in April from 56.4 (consensus: 56.5), driven by some consolidation in French confidence. Final euro area March inflation (Wednesday) is widely expected to be confirmed at 1.5% y/y for the headline measure and 0.7% y/y for core.
We would expect the USD to remain under pressure this week versus the JPY, EUR, CHF and GBP.
CITI FX:
French election looming, so investors may be reluctant to take positions. This is likely to see range trade in EUR in the days ahead, with some scope for downward drift.

Technical Analysis

As we can see in the 4 hours chart, the Eur/Usd extended the decline around nearly the 61.8% retracement of the 1.0339-1.0905 rally.
The near-term trading range remains between 1.07-1.0550 levels.
The price failed to handle 50Dsma twice, but remains above 20Wsma which is next support available.
Watching at the daily chart we can assume that the next potential supports are at 1.0599 and 1.0550 with further downfall expected to 1.0500/1.0490 and 1.0450 levels. Alternatively, potential resistance seems between 1.0680 and 1.0700.

TRADE NOW

EURUSD

Market participants focus shifts to ECB policy. EURUSD breakout again

The results of the first round of French Presidential elections were very much in line with market expectations, EUR spikes. Market participant focuses on ECB meeting this week, the second round of the French election to be held in two weeks time.

Fundamental analysis

Review of the previous data:
The Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 112.9 points in April from 112.4
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 56.8 vs 56.1 forecast
Eurozone Services PMI 56.2 vs 56.0 forecast
Germany Manufacturing PMI 58.2 vs 58.1 forecast
Germany Services PMI 54.7 vs 55.5 forecast
French Manufacturing PMI 55.1 vs 53.2 forecast
French Services PMI 57.7 vs 57.2 forecast
EA annual CPI y/y was 1.5% in March 2017, down from 2.0% in February
Euro area international trade in goods surplus 17.8 bn in February 2017, 1.7 bn surplus for EU.

Upcoming data:
Thursday, April 27
Germany prelim CPI m/m basis forecast -0.1% vs 0.2%
Unicredit: The headline inflation rate in April likely accelerated by 0.3pp to 1.9% yoy.

ECB meeting:
Thursdays ECB policy meeting is unlikely to be eventful as ECB to keep policy accommodative.
Unicredit- We do not expect new policy announcements, nor do we anticipate any material change of rhetoric.
Unicredit: we think that Thursdays meeting will be used by the ECB as a bridge to the June rendezvous, which promises to be important.
Deutsche Bank: We do not expect any significant changes at the ECB meeting.
According to Abhishek Singhania at Deutsche Bank, We do not expect any significant changes at the ECB meeting as the ECB is still waiting for credible evidence for improvement in underlying inflation and is unlikely to want to signal any change in policy stance as yet.
ABN AMRO: Sticking to its stance for now
According to Nick Kounis and Aline Schuiling at ABN AMRO, We do not expect the ECB to make major changes to its communication at its meeting this week. The first step in the exit process will come with a change in communication in our view in June of this year. The forward guidance will likely become more neutral, dropping the explicit possibility of cutting rates or stepping up QE. We then expect the ECB to set out its plan for tapering in September of this year.
Nomura: We are in line with the consensus in expecting all the ECBs key policy parameters
to be left unchanged at this weeks ECB meeting on 27 April. No change in the forward guidance may be a small disappointment for the market.
ING: Assuming that Macron does secure the presidency, speculation will increase of a significant tapering announcement to be made at the June 8th ECB meeting.

INSTITUTIONAL FX POSITIONING
Nomura-EUR: Leveraged funds net short positioning in EUR rose for the third week (to 48% vs.
45% last week). Max net shorts in the past year reached 75%, which was last seen in August 2016. Asset managers net long positioning in EUR remained stable at around 21%.

Technical Analysis

The first round of French election sends the EURUSD to a five-month high.
EURUSD marches to the key breakout zone remains between 1.0950 its top of the rising channel and 1.1000 its 100Wema.
The price is trading above 50Wsma for the first time since November 2016 pause the rally at 20Msma seems at 1.0950.
The price gave an upside breakout through inverse H&S pattern on April 18th again breakout given yesterday (April 25)
The daily RSI approaching overbought zone, indicating round number 1.10 likely to act resistance over near term.
If this week closes above 1.1020/1.1030, rally might extend to 1.1100/1.1120 100Wema, 1.1200/1.1240 Oct 2016 high,1.1300 and 1.1400/1.1430 100.00 weekly fe over the medium term.
Symmetrical triangle breakout gave on the weekly chart, aiming at 1.1300 levels.
Support finds at 1.0900, 1.0820/1.0800 and 1.0700/1.0670
The French election risk was minimized notably, euro remains a buyer on a dip

UBS: forecast 1.15 and 1.20 into end 2017/early 2018
Societe Generale:The bottom in EUR/USD is behind us and the trend has turned.
Nomura: The possible dip after the ECB meeting and inflation data later this week may provide a good opportunity to buy EUR.

TRADE NOW

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Good morning everybody,

You can find our usual weekly analysis here:
EURGBP-The cross re-tested the earlier breakout trendline
EURUSD- Trading range remains between 1.0950 and 1.0850 ahead of FOMC and NFP data.
Brent- finding a bottom

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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Gold- Range-trading in the near-term and a modest rise later in the year-ABN AMRO

1. Gold price off more than 5% from April highs.
2. The price closed below 200MA and breaks down four-month ascending trendline.
3. Weekly symmetrical triangle in focus.

Read the article on our Key To Markets Blog

Read the article on our Key To Markets Blog

AUDUSD: The cross consolidating at 100WEMA.

1. AUDUSD has been grinding down for more than two months.
2. The cross down nearly 4.5% from March highs.
3. AUDUSD low made at 0.7367 consolidating at 61.8 fib (Dec-March rally).
4. AUD remains under pressure amid still-subdued inflation and continued downside risks to iron ore prices.

Read the article on our Key To Markets blog

Read the article on our Key To Markets blog

AUDNZD: Market participants expected an upbeat tone at RBNZs monetary policy statement.

1. AUDNZD rejected thrice at 20MA on the monthly chart.
2. The cross has been consolidating between 1.0630 and 1.0930 for three months.
3. Ahead of the RBNZ policy statement , risk available to NZD on the higher side.
4. Market participants focus on upcoming RBNZ event.

Read the article on our Key To Markets blog

Read the article on our Key To Markets blog

USDCAD snaps the winning trend as U.S oil rebounds.

1. USDCAD snaps the 10-day winning streak on Friday session.
2. Following US and Canada jobs data (Friday) the price pause the rally.
3. U.S Oil rebounds and closed with strong gains on Friday session was the another factor triggered sell-off.

Read the article on our Key To Markets blog

Read the article on our Key To Markets blog

Silver futures net long positions down for three weeks

1. The price finally snaps the fourteen-day straight fall.
2. In Oct 2015 the price fell for 15 days consecutively.
3. The price spotted with a triple bottom at 16.20.
4. Silver retrace nearly 80% of the Dec- April rally.

Read the article on our Key To Markets blog

Read the article on our Key To Markets blog

Brent : Oil nearing capitulation, yet to find a bottom.

1. Oil is yet to find a bottom.
2. Oil nearing capitulation.
3. Oil prices have fallen nearly 19% between mid-April to last Friday (May 05).
4. On a daily closing basis, oil prices have fallen by around 10% on May 04 and 05.

Read the article on Key To Markets blog

Read the article on Key To Markets blog

EURUSD: Rejected at supply zone. Weekly 61.8 fe seems at 1.1030

As market expected, Macron win in the second round of the French presidential election outcome proves buy the rumor and sell the news strategy.

1. Macrons win fails to add further fuel for euro.
2. Euro fails to handle the resistance zone.
3. We expect to continue on reduced political risks around the French presidential election.

Read the article on our Key To Markets Blog

Read the article on our Key To Markets blog

EURGBP: Bulls need more patient.

1. The cross rejected at a month-descending.
2. Fails to handle 50WMA.
3. Mega Thursday offers upside risk to GBP.

Read the article on our Key to Markets blog

Read the article on our Key To Markets blog

EIA forecasts Brent prices to average $53/b in 2017 and $57/b in 2018.

1. Oil prices fell on Tuesday session, following API data erases half of the intraday losses.
2. Saudi says likely to extend oil cuts to end-2017 or longer.
3. China's crude oil imports ease from record, fuel exports fall.

Read the article on our Key To Markets blog

Read the article on our Key To Markets blog

Copper: Bargain hunting expected.

1. Copper price has been consolidating at 200DEMA for three sessions.
2. Price erases the ten-day descending trendline.
3. Trading at a four-month low, off- 13% from Feb2017 highs.
4. On the weekly chart, 100WEMA finds at 2.47
5. Bargain hunting expected.

Read the article on our Key To Markets blog

Read the article on our Key To Markets blog

JPY CROSSES TECHNICAL FORECAST

1. AUDJPY spotted with a double top, facing resistance at 50DMA and 100WEMA.
2. USDJPY climbs above all moving averages. 61.8 (Dec-April fall) in focus.
3. NZDJPY consolidating at 100DEMA, more headroom available.

Read the article on our Key To Markets Blog

Read the article on our Key To Markets Blog