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Let's Trade Options

  • #15,001
  • Apr 21, 2017 12:31pm Apr 21, 2017 12:31pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Which one? You need me to go to Cyprus and whoop some ass just let me know...
FXchoice in Bulgaria. I figure they have been around for awhile and are less likely to steal my 10K than some of the other bucket shops Ive used to trade spot.

I'm short the shiny again.

The dirty is really a bastard sometimes. I don't even like to look at it. Just wake me up when it hits either 55 or 36. 36 still lets me retire early, 55 gets me sleeping on the couch when the wife finds out how much leverage I'm using.
  • #15,002
  • Apr 21, 2017 12:45pm Apr 21, 2017 12:45pm
Whats going on with QCOM? This thing is definitely oversold IMO
Its beef with AAPL is overdone,
not sure if there any other issues with qualcomm
Seems like good time to buy some 52.50 calls or you may want to hedge with Butterfly or condor
  • #15,003
  • Apr 21, 2017 1:11pm Apr 21, 2017 1:11pm
Quoting charron
Whats going on with QCOM? This thing is definitely oversold IMO Its beef with AAPL is overdone, not sure if there any other issues with qualcomm Seems like good time to buy some 52.50 calls or you may want to hedge with Butterfly or condor
Ya it looks like it wants to nestle in this area for awhile from 50-55. Ive been looking at getting enough premium on a short strangle and playing it sideways for awhile
  • #15,004
  • Apr 21, 2017 7:44pm Apr 21, 2017 7:44pm
Quoting The Fool
sell in May go away?,,,,surprised at how much it bounced.....doubt the fly would go for 7c but worth a shot with nice r:r
SHLD still a good short methink, could go back to $5 in a market selloff & with everybody talking shit about it.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,005
  • Apr 21, 2017 8:21pm Apr 21, 2017 8:21pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}SHLD still a good short methink, could go back to $5 in a market selloff & with everybody talking shit about it. {image}
I agree, However, There is one problem.
SHLD has huge short float of 23.62%
SO, There is good possibility of a short squeez
  • #15,006
  • Apr 21, 2017 8:32pm Apr 21, 2017 8:32pm
These calls for a market correction have been coming out for years now, but the chances are better now than ever, imo. Given extreme incompetence of DJT to deliver the juicy meat WS craves, hotter and hotter geopoli risks, and a more hawkish Fed, to name just a few, I have to bet that US stocks have a good chance of slipping >10% this Summer. Double or triple that % if there is a new war front opening....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...y-janet-yellen

"While Jones, who runs the $10 billion Tudor Investment hedge fund, is spooked, he says it’s not quite time to short. He predicts that the Nasdaq, which has already rallied almost 10 percent this year, could edge higher if nationalist candidate Marine Le Pen loses France’s presidential election next month as expected. Jones tripled his money in 1987 in large part by correctly calling that October’s market crash."
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,007
  • Apr 21, 2017 9:06pm Apr 21, 2017 9:06pm
lol....$0.01 to $1.08.....I load these for pennies all the time, can sometimes fill....10c maybe a start to pay maxP $1.8 +/-
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,008
  • Apr 21, 2017 9:18pm Apr 21, 2017 9:18pm
easier fills perhaps in the CBOE VIX
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,009
  • Apr 21, 2017 10:53pm Apr 21, 2017 10:53pm
Quoting charron
I agree, However, There is one problem. SHLD has huge short float of 23.62% SO, There is good possibility of a short squeez
well, one to watch - if there is a squeeze 'n spike, that could offer an even better short entry.

I am watching next weeks earnings for big spikes, might like to fade them too....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,010
  • Apr 21, 2017 11:03pm Apr 21, 2017 11:03pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Same old shtick... Trump train seems to be gaining some steam once again. I'm flat on the shiny(got a pending short on GC at 1285) and weathered the storm on the dirty. Still short 26 contracts from 53.55.
izzat dirty all one month? - which month? I think you will get a deep dip if/when equities tank. Otoh, just a matter o time b4 the Trump team gets back to the ME and starts picking on Iran. Prolly shoot up some guys in dinghies if they come too close to a USS whatever. Then oyul will run up....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,011
  • Apr 22, 2017 3:14am Apr 22, 2017 3:14am
been watching this VXX call calendar, been around 40c last couple weeks +/-....you get what you pay for with time spreads - more time in the spread = more spread in the P/L. As shown modeled with a 10% iv rise, no telling if that is what will happen but it's in the ballpark for a modest spike. With enough iv rise a 10x return is possible near expiry.....good returns across a wide range pre-expiry if we just get some vol....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,012
  • Apr 22, 2017 10:03pm Apr 22, 2017 10:03pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} FXchoice in Bulgaria. I figure they have been around for awhile and are less likely to steal my 10K than some of the other bucket shops Ive used to trade spot.
http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-...w.fxchoice.com

idk......the real money in retail fx is in running one of the borkerages....and even those guys are having trouble staying in bizness.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,013
  • Apr 22, 2017 11:13pm Apr 22, 2017 11:13pm
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/...spx?yptr=yahoo

Somebody bought 2k of the Jan '19 SNAP $20 puts @$5.00 - a $1MM trade

.....options are too dear for any attractive spreads
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,014
  • Apr 23, 2017 2:48am Apr 23, 2017 2:48am
fish ^VIX spikes with UVXY call verts, 2 weeks out min, as closte to itm as you can and still be <15c for a 50c spread, <10c better
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,015
  • Apr 23, 2017 5:44pm Apr 23, 2017 5:44pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} FXchoice in Bulgaria. I figure they have been around for awhile and are less likely to steal my 10K than some of the other bucket shops Ive used to trade spot. I'm short the shiny again. The dirty is really a bastard sometimes. I don't even like to look at it. Just wake me up when it hits either 55 or 36. 36 still lets me retire early, 55 gets me sleeping on the couch when the wife finds out how much leverage I'm using.
Thanks France. Fibre futures ripped my face off though. went back to my entry but I'm still short. gotta close over the 1.09 to shake me out.

Other than that I'm positioned so we will see where we break to.
  • #15,016
  • Apr 23, 2017 6:27pm Apr 23, 2017 6:27pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Thanks France. Fibre futures ripped my face off though. went back to my entry but I'm still short. gotta close over the 1.09 to shake me out. Other than that I'm positioned so we will see where we break to.
Could be a short-lived bear run for shinola if they be shoosting in the Sea of Japan in the coming weeks. DJT's promise of big tax news this Wed already ringing hollow as it's nothing but hot air and he's 100 days in with no wins and just some one-off military adventures to show for it. idk, maybe it all blows over and the winning commences and the interminable bull markets leg up forever...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,017
  • Apr 24, 2017 10:12am Apr 24, 2017 10:12am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}izzat dirty all one month? - which month? I think you will get a deep dip if/when equities tank. Otoh, just a matter o time b4 the Trump team gets back to the ME and starts picking on Iran. Prolly shoot up some guys in dinghies if they come too close to a USS whatever. Then oyul will run up....
Last month, I'm just rolling them forward every month. I just like the fact that all the talking heads and bank "analysts" are talking crude up non-stop. Pretty much guarantees we are gonna keep going south. I don't pretend to have any clue what the next macro crisis that will effect oil will happen. It just looks like on the bigger TFs and with the Greenback flagging north of 99 for another leg up toward 105 that the next major area the big boys have on the radar to buy the dirty black stuff is sub 37.

Ill short 4 more if we come back to 52.60

Up early to check the markets before heading to the beach. Expecting a pretty solid bounce on the $dxy from here so ill hang in on my aussie and fibre shorts
  • #15,018
  • Apr 24, 2017 12:02pm Apr 24, 2017 12:02pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Expecting a pretty solid bounce on the $dxy from here so ill hang in on my aussie and fibre shorts
not trading cash but same page as I will be fading the equity bounce, still expecting some good volatility in coming weeks.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,019
  • Apr 24, 2017 12:40pm Apr 24, 2017 12:40pm
Ginormous slump in the ^VIX (-24%) I am watching maybe get some follow thru tomorrow but I did fill a VXX Jun/Sept $30 call calendar @ 28c, will do more if it gets cheaper, 30c max was my target.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,020
  • Apr 24, 2017 1:17pm Apr 24, 2017 1:17pm
SHLD keeps sliding, even on a +1.0% market day like today, sorry I didn't fill bear spreads last week when it topped at $14. To do this week is to watch for extreme ER spikes to fade......names later...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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