No one can forecast the direction of a trend, it’s a paradox | Page 2 | Forex Factory

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No one can forecast the direction of a trend, it’s a paradox

  • #21
  • Apr 23, 2017 10:32am Apr 23, 2017 10:32am
Quoting Grabowski
Kanzler, I know we might not agree on this, but to me Technical Analysis is kind of voodoo to me. The reason why, is that you are trying to predict something based on the past, to continue in the future. Humans are very good at seeing patterns that aren't really there, and if you create a complete random chart, your mind instantly draw S/R, channels and all kind of things, that has never been proven to work, just like voodoo. I'm not saying TA and PA doesn't work, all I'm saying is that perhaps the reason why it works is because of your high risk:reward...
Grabowski I think this is a totally rational position and for you to have. I recently acknowledge that I was not making money in Forex in a different thread, and had taken a couple years Hiatus from the scene. That said looking back into things with a fresh perspective there seems to be some rationale behind supply and demand Concepts on the chart because in order for institutions to be able to buy or sell an asset at a specific price consolidation must occur so the patterns for supply and demand despite being sold commercially appeal to me at least. I started a new demo account which had some success in a few days with good trades of low-risk high-reward but naturally that is entirely possible to be luck or variance.

I will make it public just for shits and giggles.
  • #22
  • Apr 23, 2017 12:03pm Apr 23, 2017 12:03pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Liun, It's about finding a set of rules that are easy to follow and repeatable. As long as you make no mistakes following your set of easy rules you will succeed, but you will have Losing Trades {image}
In my experience, every strategy will lose money in the long run. We may make money for a while playing a certain strategy and then the market takes a different pattern and then the strategy starts losing money until we give up all our gains and then lose some, because for all traders combined it's a negative sum game. It's a zero sum game only when you take in to account entities who make money of forex like brokers and such.
  • #23
  • Oct 28, 2017 4:58am Oct 28, 2017 4:58am
Quoting liunliun
THE TURN OF AN END OF A TREND IS the main problem of paradox i think. {image}
There is no specific rule of trading, yes sometimes it’s really hard to identify market trend but pro traders are trading with a healthy percentage! By the way, I identify the market trend based on my technical and news trading knowledge.
  • #24
  • Oct 30, 2017 8:53pm Oct 30, 2017 8:53pm
You dont need a trend to make money.. stop chasing the exact "start/finish" of it
  • #25
  • Oct 31, 2017 2:55pm Oct 31, 2017 2:55pm
Quoting havo
You dont need a trend to make money.. stop chasing the exact "start/finish" of it
Can you please explain how you mean ? a trend is a movement of different degrees. What is your defenition and how do you think here ?

Best regards
  • #26
  • Oct 31, 2017 10:51pm Oct 31, 2017 10:51pm
Quoting jgadefelth
{quote} Can you please explain how you mean ? a trend is a movement of different degrees. What is your defenition and how do you think here ? Best regards
well, of course you need a "move" in your direction to close the trade in positive, BUT what a i meant was that people in general are fixed on getting "on the trend" right from the first pip until the the very last one (wich could be awesome but not gona happen in real live trading)

you just need an impulse in your direction, thats all; its better to to close in positive and "leave" pips on the table (wich you NEVER going to know how much could be) than chasing up to the last pip and trying to "make a lot of money, 1:X risk reward (lol thats a funny concept) etc etc..
  • #27
  • Last Post: Oct 31, 2017 11:07pm Oct 31, 2017 11:07pm
Quoting havo
{quote} well, of course you need a "move" in your direction to close the trade in positive, BUT what a i meant was that people in general are fixed on getting "on the trend" right from the first pip until the the very last one (wich could be awesome but not gona happen in real live trading) you just need an impulse in your direction, thats all; its better to to close in positive and "leave" pips on the table (wich you NEVER going to know how much could be) than chasing up to the last pip and trying to "make a lot of money, 1:X risk reward (lol thats...

If i understand you right you are more for taking what the market is giving instead of putting down hard targets ? And stops about the same you go out of the trade when you think that your first impression of the trade are no longer, instead of a hard stoploss ?

ps. if you find time i sent you some pm.

Best regards
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