Disliked{quote} 1. IMHO it is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for the trend to finish. 2. I use tick volume to get an idea of activity behind the moves. A simple way of doing the same thing would be through an indicator like On Balance Volume which clearly displays changes from sell to buy pressure, i.e. a difference between a mere pullback (low pullback volume = small change of OBV) and the end of the trend (high volume of the opposite...Ignored
How to tell if the Bull/Bear trend is over, without an indicator
- #83
- Edited 11:50am Apr 19, 2017 10:03am | Edited 11:50am
- Joined Mar 2017 | Status: Working smart and hard | 2,949 Posts
AUDUSD 5MIN Monitoring Bullish Reversal at work If the Bull X leg got 100% retraced then, we should see movement continuation downward (But the 100% RT that I recommend is a close of a higher TF candle to avoid any whipsaw tail) {image}
Still not selling until we have 100% RT on the H4 Bull Leg.
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
- #85
- Apr 19, 2017 10:48am Apr 19, 2017 10:48am
- Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,094 Posts
Strategy beautiful! But only on historic charts like any others 
!
!
- #86
- Apr 19, 2017 10:58am Apr 19, 2017 10:58am
- Joined Mar 2017 | Status: Working smart and hard | 2,949 Posts
Strategy beautiful! But only on historic charts like any others
That's why I'm forward testing this strategy and be honest about its failure.
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
- #87
- Apr 19, 2017 11:20am Apr 19, 2017 11:20am
- Joined Mar 2017 | Status: Working smart and hard | 2,949 Posts
AUDUSD 4HR
Last bull's Bastion (Support).
Make or break time. If tomorrow no reversal to the upside of the 1st Bull leg, then AUDUSD could continue falling until 6th of January 2017 candle.
Time to sleep on it.
Last bull's Bastion (Support).
Make or break time. If tomorrow no reversal to the upside of the 1st Bull leg, then AUDUSD could continue falling until 6th of January 2017 candle.
Time to sleep on it.
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
- #88
- Apr 19, 2017 11:44am Apr 19, 2017 11:44am
- Joined Mar 2017 | Status: Working smart and hard | 2,949 Posts
AUDUSD Bearish Reversal Strategy.
2nd Bull's leg has been RT 100%. Waiting to 100% RT on the 1st Bull's leg and create the Y leg.
Best to treat the X+Y bear's leg as the 1BLL (1st Bull's Leg).
If it does broke the 1st Bull's leg.
Expect 1BLL to retrace not more than 76.4%.
2nd Bull's leg has been RT 100%. Waiting to 100% RT on the 1st Bull's leg and create the Y leg.
Best to treat the X+Y bear's leg as the 1BLL (1st Bull's Leg).
If it does broke the 1st Bull's leg.
Expect 1BLL to retrace not more than 76.4%.
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
- #89
- Apr 19, 2017 11:55am Apr 19, 2017 11:55am
- Joined Mar 2017 | Status: Working smart and hard | 2,949 Posts
1 or 2 hours ago (Almost hopeless, scary, Yes)
London closing. Looks like we're going to have a 3rd bear's leg after the London closing?.
London closing. Looks like we're going to have a 3rd bear's leg after the London closing?.
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
- #90
- Apr 19, 2017 12:02pm Apr 19, 2017 12:02pm
- Joined Mar 2017 | Status: Working smart and hard | 2,949 Posts
1 or 2 hours ago (Almost hopeless, scary, Yes) {image} London closing. Looks like we're going to have a 3rd bear's leg after the London closing?. {image}
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
- #91
- Apr 19, 2017 12:09pm Apr 19, 2017 12:09pm
- Joined Mar 2017 | Status: Working smart and hard | 2,949 Posts
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
- #92
- Apr 19, 2017 12:43pm Apr 19, 2017 12:43pm
- Joined Mar 2017 | Status: Working smart and hard | 2,949 Posts
Daily support @ 0.7941 AUDUSD.
50 pips below is bearish domain.
50 pips below is bearish domain.
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
- #94
- Apr 19, 2017 8:43pm Apr 19, 2017 8:43pm
- Joined Mar 2017 | Status: Working smart and hard | 2,949 Posts
Identifying a range market in a systematic way.
Presuming we have Bear's legs formed and we expecting a reversal.
It is important to identify the range market as a precaution. Identifying that will allow us to identify fake outs and real break out.
Below is an example of identifying a range before a reversal in 15M chart (AUDUSD)
As seen in the screenshot there are 2 Vertical lines.
Those lines are the point of entry into the Oversold domain and the exit point from the Oversold area.
Take those 2 points and make a rectangle out of it. The range is highlighted between the 2 Orange horizontal lines.
Expect the market to move higher when it's able to break above the range market and 100%RT on the 2nd Bear's leg.
Presuming we have Bear's legs formed and we expecting a reversal.
It is important to identify the range market as a precaution. Identifying that will allow us to identify fake outs and real break out.
Below is an example of identifying a range before a reversal in 15M chart (AUDUSD)
As seen in the screenshot there are 2 Vertical lines.
Those lines are the point of entry into the Oversold domain and the exit point from the Oversold area.
Take those 2 points and make a rectangle out of it. The range is highlighted between the 2 Orange horizontal lines.
Expect the market to move higher when it's able to break above the range market and 100%RT on the 2nd Bear's leg.
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
- #95
- Apr 19, 2017 10:15pm Apr 19, 2017 10:15pm
- Joined Mar 2017 | Status: Working smart and hard | 2,949 Posts
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
- #96
- Apr 19, 2017 11:04pm Apr 19, 2017 11:04pm
- Joined Mar 2017 | Status: Working smart and hard | 2,949 Posts
Recent failed Bull's reversal leg X, on the 19th April 2017, AUDUSD 5Min chart
Revision
Market able to make "X" bull's leg by 100%RT on 1A and 2A Bear's leg.
Then follow with a retracement which turns out to retrace 100% of X, obliterating 1,2,3 Bull's leg.
Fear that the market might make a reversal to the upside, the market fight over the domain thus Inside Bars/Triangle continuation pattern appeared in the failed Bullish 100%RT reversal highlighted in purple.
The success key in this failed reversal is looking for an inside bars or continuation pattern or consolidation at the feet of "X"
More example is coming on a failed bullish/bearish reversal.
Revision
Market able to make "X" bull's leg by 100%RT on 1A and 2A Bear's leg.
Then follow with a retracement which turns out to retrace 100% of X, obliterating 1,2,3 Bull's leg.
Fear that the market might make a reversal to the upside, the market fight over the domain thus Inside Bars/Triangle continuation pattern appeared in the failed Bullish 100%RT reversal highlighted in purple.
The success key in this failed reversal is looking for an inside bars or continuation pattern or consolidation at the feet of "X"
More example is coming on a failed bullish/bearish reversal.
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
- #97
- Apr 20, 2017 1:47am Apr 20, 2017 1:47am
- Joined Mar 2017 | Status: Working smart and hard | 2,949 Posts
AUDUSD 4HR
New leg Higher Low leg has been made @76.4%.
Higher High is on the roll
New leg Higher Low leg has been made @76.4%.
Higher High is on the roll
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
- #98
- Apr 21, 2017 2:23am Apr 21, 2017 2:23am
- Joined Mar 2017 | Status: Working smart and hard | 2,949 Posts
Taking my chance to ride this bull with 15 pips Risk.
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
- #99
- Apr 21, 2017 7:54am Apr 21, 2017 7:54am
- Joined Mar 2017 | Status: Working smart and hard | 2,949 Posts
Taking my chance to ride this bull with 15 pips Risk. {image}
)
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
- #100
- Apr 21, 2017 11:56am Apr 21, 2017 11:56am
- Joined Mar 2017 | Status: Working smart and hard | 2,949 Posts
Fake reversal examples where it turns out to become a trend continuation.
The X retraced 100% on the previous bearish/bullish legs.
Then later X got 100% retraced followed with inside bars/trend continuation pattern on the Head/Feet of X (depending on the trend).
For Bullish, the inside bar/continuation pattern appeared at the head of X leg.
For Bearish, the inside bar/continuation pattern appeared at the feet of X leg.
The X retraced 100% on the previous bearish/bullish legs.
Then later X got 100% retraced followed with inside bars/trend continuation pattern on the Head/Feet of X (depending on the trend).
For Bullish, the inside bar/continuation pattern appeared at the head of X leg.
For Bearish, the inside bar/continuation pattern appeared at the feet of X leg.
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss