basic 4h trend trading strategy, is it enough?

still trying to get my foot in the door with forex , could do with help from experienced trend traders/other profitable people

i did a manual backtest , got good results, and now a live one and scored not so good. is it normal to get about 5R profit, or even zero, after about 19 trades??? i'm thinking maybe it's a season where i make just little or no money, as portfolios are supposed to 'tread' at times.



this is my 4h trend trading strategy (see pic in link), do u think it's good enough?

https://app.box.com/s/w5r1s27bh9jr00btpc9vv3o46pcsv715



strategy:
60sma crossover (suggest trend, put more so for 'completion' sake, basically if something looks like it's going up/down nicely i'm interested)
initial stops about 1.5atr , (can't be much bigger than that it seems), using swing points
entry trigger: pullback with engulfing pattern or other candlestick pattern
take profit 3R
trail price using 'spacious' swing points (swing points that are too close are ignored)
use major pairs
higher D1 timeframe need not be aligned. can be ranging, even contrarian. who cares. i'm just looking for something that looks like it's moving up or down on a 4h frame and trying to get into it.


i sometimes wonder if maybe this idea is just too simple and not enough requirements. don't know. i'm hoping it does work.

Hi captain13,

you have to establish if pair is trading in range (2/3 of the time) or actually trending (1/3 of the time), before swing trend trading. And you can't just say, your target is 3R or 5R away. You have to look for previous support/resistance areas and determine your targets and SL accordingly (something like chart example below). Higher R means lower win ratio and larger loosing streaks, you can't get around it. If your RR ratio is 3, you have to be right 25 % of the time (or just a little more because of the spreads) to be break even trader (for 5R you need cca. 17 %).

Here are some statistical tools, to see what to expect:

http://www.tradeciety.com/reward-risk-calculator/

http://completecurrencytrader.com/to...ty-calculator/

Simple strategy is work if you know what you're doing with money management

FWIW, 19 live trades isn't even remotely enough to judge your system...think in terms of 100's of trades before you decide to change it. Also, time and time again, its been shown that the most simple trend following systems are the most robust...

Best,

Dave

It's not enough, you are gonna lose money

so u guys think my 4h system might be a working system? and even after 20 trades it can be normal to sometimes get say 0R or 5R? i haven't succeeded so i don't know what normal likes like