Plan the Trade

Certainly hit's the spot H )

I would love to see if it pinpointed the pullbacks of the Nas today. They were generally pullbacks to what i consider subwave (i) of the downlegs, but if it flagged up a POC line at the turns, i will be highly impressed...

todays market opened above the extremes. always use yesterdays market profile the extremes are the last blocks of the profile when its up there its and institutional day all you need to do is take first pullback and look for the next profile that's in that area which was last Tuesday most days you just need previous days profile the target is that days extreme

I think that answers my earlier question, cheers H.

Does that mean it is more highly geared towards market open, as if it trends to new ground later in the session, presumably the previous days data becomes less accurate?

it depends if we open like today above the extremes which is not the norm you look for next higher profile most times it opnes within the fair value. now if we get a sizeable gap I look for a stall around the levels and hoipe to get a setup so it can advance towards filling that gap in chart I showed you before the gap and the POC were the same place how interesting is that

I also did a little tweaking with the settings instead of 70% I changed it to 68% I also changed the value high and low as well as the poc to be based on volume not time spent there. so what that does is give me 2 pocs 1 based on volume and 1 based of time sprent there price has come dowm big time back into the profile look at these 2 bounces the tpo poc is found by seeing which row has the most blocks

Great stuff Harold. Nice to see you posting again.

So more 'VPO' then 'TPO'!

I was going to message you regarding settings, but i'm not quite ready for setting up just yet.
I think (from memory) the Nas went up strongly for the first hour or so yesterday after open, whereas the Dow was piling down from the start.

I really want to see how it works when that happens, because presumably in a strong trending market, yesterday's values will soon become obsolete once PA trend's into new territory.

It would be great to see a comparison between the two.

Your chart answers my earlier question about whether it highlights a pullback to a POC/TPO line, but i was going along the idea that the lines would adjust as we print more action...(hence my confusion as to what time settings are used), i wasn't sure that you used solely yesterdays trading values.

This is very interesting indeed and i look forward to learning more in the coming days/weeks...

So comparing charts, my EW approach with trading the pullback to subwave (i) of the downleg and using the 20ma for exit;



and now using your TPO;



I now realise that you use prior weeks values. I won't edit my previous post - as i say, it is a learning process. So when we trade above, we then use previous days data and what was extreme high, becomes extreme low (the same as Resistance becomes Support etc).

What i really like about this, is that it becomes a little more mechanical. I struggle to view PA on any chart without an EW objective, but incorporating the two would be easy.

I think my point being - EW can be deadly, but it can also be costly. Often what you interpret to happen, does not follow through and the count changes. In actual fact gaining confidence from it is difficult as results constantly vary. Confidence only comes with reliability.

Generally it needs fib levels to confirm a typical wave count (i devoted a whole thread to that a few years ago).

My MA exit worked well yesterday, but other times it can take you out too early etc and you have to rely on wave counts instead, as for the recent Dow and Dax charts - they were hourly/daily/weekly... i think my previous post highlighted the fact that although the Dow has indeed dropped as per my overall plan, it has also whiplashed back 200 odd pips regularly... what's the point in holding through those?!

(05-04-17)



Today;



It seems to me that TPO would save the headache of constantly trying to decipher what phase we are in, what kind of trend we will likely face next etc etc...

When analysing the market, you always want it to repeat exactly how it trended the previous day, but it never does! If you miss a pullback entry and PA does one of it's death throws, you have to just watch the train leave the station without yourself onboard!

When the target is to reduce hours of screen time, it is obvious to me that Harold has this down to a fine art!

H, i will be picking your brains over the coming weeks!

Dow, couple days ago using wave counts and fibs combined;



Here the 'c' wave reacts exactly at the fib level of 61.8% of wave 'a' and also combines with a round number (20,500), after the reaction the 50% level was also support for wave 'a', buy for new high...

The profile starts from midnight to midnight. So today is Thursday I look at completed profile from Wednesday. I don't use same days profile because levels are developing. The only time I look further back is when market is driving and it's gone past the extremes which is not the norm

Harold, i've just added your TPO POC line from Tuesday's data (I haven't upgraded to level 5 yet!) onto current chart and look where yesterday's PA reversed...



Now that is impressive! Was that based on time or volumes?

If you didn't change setting then it's time

Oh the joys of trading with Spreadbets!

The lower red rectangle represents the spread of the position taken;



The fact that my stop was pinched to the tenth of a pip is a tad annoying, (to say the least). I could even have placed my limit order a pip higher and would have been filled and also not clipped with the stop hunt...

I had a short bias and thus was trying to hold for a bigger move as opposed to grabbing what was available and accumulating... I need to start looking to bank at the prior res from the pullback and expect a retest for re-entry. It's quite common afterall. As traders we have to deal with not only the risk and the losses, but also doing nothing (or getting stopped out for BE) and missing the move we anticipated correctly...

Here's one for you...

In EW world, standard procedure is for wave 4 (of a 5w impulse cycle) to retrace 38.2% of prior wave 3.

Now i looked at the overall chart earlier today and dismissed it as a potential 4th wave due to the size of it in relation to wave 2. It simply looked far too long in length and i would imagine most other EW'ers would agree... however, look at the reaction;



It is pinpoint perfect (at this stage) and we have a HH too. Can it be? This is the problem with EW, how to minimise risk and take the position long with confidence? This is why i try to use it as an overall bias and then try to join in the trend if it materialises at pullbacks instead...

I highlighted something else in the chart - i notice repetition relation between subwaves to overall cycle often. If we look at the subwaves of wave 1, we can see a sharp retrace for wave (ii) vs a long complex wave for subwave (iv), now compare that to the overall waves 2&4.... what do ya reckon?! Was the reaction at the 38.2% fib some coincidence? Do the big boys also use it to entice traders in, only to take them out on the way down? I certainly expected a down day today and retest of 20,500 instead...

Ok, i talked about an overall short bias earlier. My emotion overtook my trading today, (trying to hold for the bigger move), in that i was right, but we saw a big retrace long first (and as pointed out above a fib reaction, which led to a little added confusion).

When taking my earlier pullback trade, i was convinced that it was going to head towards 20,500 straight away. It didn't do so and a good scalping trade entry saw a BE stop out.

My thoughts about the 4th wave (above) were right, in that it simply didn't look right, but how to explain the fib reaction? as i say, i think it is set among algo's, to react there, with the purpose to catch more stops.

I don't have Market Structure data (TPO) as yet, but i did have an overall guesstimate chart already from earlier analysis;



As i say, i don't have actual data, but we spent quite a bit of time at the low consolidation area yesterday, so i've tried to average it out. Also the 50% retrace of yesterdays entire move is very close to 20,500, so i felt it would act as a magnet.

Current;



I would love to know how close the actual data was!

You would also have to observe the pullback long yesterday, which failed to make a new HH... instead it reacted at the subwave (i) of the prior downleg, thus could we be heading back down to fresh lows??? it makes the count ABC (corrective) instead of 123 (of impulse) much more appealing in earlier chart.

Little market today the rectangles are the gap areas in profile those are less volume areas

Nice one (as usual) H. Quick question...

Isn't that a POC, the purple line at 5451.50 (ish) is time based variant? and in which case almost exactly where price reversed?

I can see the widest line is the TPO at 5447.50, but unsure of the purple one...