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Let's Trade Options

  • #14,981
  • Apr 14, 2017 9:51am Apr 14, 2017 9:51am
I've not filled any of the trades noted just above. Attention has drifted and been pulled away from trading in recent weeks. Fading the vol spike looks viable - that works best when there is a hard vol crash, but we'll see what the weekend brings with WWIII on tap. If Korea situation blows over in an obvious way then we can get the vol crash perhaps - otherwise vol may continue to run up...looks like push comes to shove near term if NK pops off any more missile tests.

http://metro.co.uk/2017/04/11/what-w...he-us-6567626/

"Donald Trump has his finger on the big red button...."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,982
  • Apr 16, 2017 11:09pm Apr 16, 2017 11:09pm
pop and drop could be our last trade, but by damn I'm gonna kill it.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,983
  • Edited 11:54pm Apr 16, 2017 11:39pm | Edited 11:54pm
market shocks last few years have seen about a 10% drop in equities, quick btfd follow. War with NK breaking out would be a different scenario.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,984
  • Apr 17, 2017 2:44am Apr 17, 2017 2:44am
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,985
  • Apr 17, 2017 10:35am Apr 17, 2017 10:35am
Quoting The Fool
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-kORdrmrwE

Dude that is waaaay above my skill set. I cant even imagine surfing waves like that is fun. I like 5-7 foot sets. That's plenty big and at least I don't feel like I'm going to die.

Heading out now. Closed my Yen longs for a solid 8:1 R:R last night. Dxy rolling back down to levels that I wanna buy USD at. May add to my Euro shorts.

opened a Bullish credit spread on X today May Monthly 25/28 put spread for 1.08 credit. I'm out with a close under 28. Other than that no new trades. Ate a loss on my EFA put spread last week.
  • #14,986
  • Apr 17, 2017 2:21pm Apr 17, 2017 2:21pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Dude that is waaaay above my skill set. I cant even imagine surfing waves like that is fun. I like 5-7 foot sets.
crazy reef break looks like it would kill me just trying to swim out to it.....I have to think back days of old 12 yo dudes paddling out there on a piece of wood .... just survival the game if you can make the drop.

Ya I have been waiting not sure whether to try to fade the recent SPX drop or set up with good size for more long volatility. Watching the bounce today with not much in play....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,987
  • Apr 17, 2017 3:06pm Apr 17, 2017 3:06pm
trying set up a variety of long vol trades, but I dare not pay much more than a dime....tried to fill Apr28/May5 calendar $20 calls at 13c on a 12c mid.....prolly be there tomorrow....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,988
  • Apr 17, 2017 3:33pm Apr 17, 2017 3:33pm
May 05 XRT 43 Calls Looks cheap at 0.26
Looks like XRT is due for bounce to 43-44 range
  • #14,989
  • Apr 17, 2017 5:46pm Apr 17, 2017 5:46pm
Quoting charron
May 05 XRT 43 Calls Looks cheap at 0.26 Looks like XRT is due for bounce to 43-44 range
wow SHLD the #2 holding, I wanted to say "Yikes" but I looked at the SHLD chart and I see omg it has more than doubled since the dip 2 months ago....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,990
  • Apr 18, 2017 10:12pm Apr 18, 2017 10:12pm
Quoting The Fool
wow SHLD the #2 holding, I wanted to say "Yikes" but I looked at the SHLD chart and I see omg it has more than doubled since the dip 2 months ago....
sell in May go away?,,,,surprised at how much it bounced.....doubt the fly would go for 7c but worth a shot with nice r:r
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,991
  • Apr 19, 2017 12:27am Apr 19, 2017 12:27am
Taking a shot on a post tax day equity bounce - SPY call calendars Apr26/28 @ $236 and $237 - 11c and 8c +/-
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,992
  • Apr 19, 2017 1:21am Apr 19, 2017 1:21am
Quoting The Fool
trying set up a variety of long vol trades, but I dare not pay much more than a dime....tried to fill Apr28/May5 calendar $20 calls at 13c on a 12c mid.....prolly be there tomorrow....
filled 4/17 for 14c -- it's VXX -- will keep shopping these while the various geopoli risks are hot
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,993
  • Apr 19, 2017 10:52am Apr 19, 2017 10:52am
nothing above filling with decent movement overnight.....seeing decent moves on the earnings names (GS, etc) maybe I will shop some long strangles in the bunch next week....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,994
  • Apr 19, 2017 3:51pm Apr 19, 2017 3:51pm
Quoting The Fool
Taking a shot on a post tax day equity bounce - SPY call calendars Apr26/28 @ $236 and $237 - 11c and 8c +/-
No fill, gonna be tough to run up much with oil sliding hard, rather leaning short equities now but watching...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,995
  • Apr 20, 2017 2:00am Apr 20, 2017 2:00am
Sell in May go away for a 10% drop in June? I don't mind throwing these on if I can fill em cheap. The P/L's shown near expiry but quite wider a week or so before that, widen also with rising iv, especially for the calendar
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,996
  • Apr 20, 2017 11:17am Apr 20, 2017 11:17am
Same old shtick... Trump train seems to be gaining some steam once again. I'm flat on the shiny(got a pending short on GC at 1285) and weathered the storm on the dirty. Still short 26 contracts from 53.55.

Gotta thank the Pres for giving my X trade a boost by implementing some strange rule on imports from the 60s on US steel. That one should net me a solid 5:1 if it pans out.

Still hanging in there on KBE. Thinking the squid is done with the freefall? My AXP shorts are getting rocked on the other end of the banking world. Oh well...one of those things is gonna go somewhere eventually?

Currencies have been probably the most tradable thing lately. Added more to my 6E short at 1.0800 and got short aussie futures too. Basically just playing the big picture positions on the $DXY with tight stops. Hoping to get some big positional moves out of these like with crude and shiny

Opened a new Forex account overseas. Better commissions and leverage than with US brokers. Nothing huge but I want to be able to make some plays in spot.
  • #14,997
  • Apr 20, 2017 11:58am Apr 20, 2017 11:58am
Quoting charron
May 05 XRT 43 Calls Looks cheap at 0.26 Looks like XRT is due for bounce to 43-44 range
XRT bounced quicker than I expected. I sold out a bit early at 0.66, but can't complain with 120% gain.
  • #14,998
  • Apr 20, 2017 6:38pm Apr 20, 2017 6:38pm
Quoting The Fool
Sell in May go away for a 10% drop in June? I don't mind throwing these on if I can fill em cheap. The P/L's shown near expiry but quite wider a week or so before that, widen also with rising iv, especially for the calendar
filled the 2 Jun SPY put spreads above as shown or a little cheaper....now just me sit back and wait for the money to pour in....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,999
  • Apr 20, 2017 6:40pm Apr 20, 2017 6:40pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Same old shtick... Trump train seems to be gaining some steam once again.
I know, right?....just when bears seem to be on the verge of some real southbound action,....face.....off.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,000
  • Apr 20, 2017 6:41pm Apr 20, 2017 6:41pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Opened a new Forex account overseas. Better commissions and leverage than with US brokers. Nothing huge but I want to be able to make some plays in spot.
Which one? You need me to go to Cyprus and whoop some ass just let me know...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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