Are commodities in a speculative bubble? | Forex Factory

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Are commodities in a speculative bubble?

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  • BUBBLE?
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  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 18, 2017 9:54am Apr 18, 2017 9:54am
YES, NO, WHY SO? Trump rally to blame maybe? Economic growth expectations exaggerated.
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  • #2
  • Apr 18, 2017 5:01pm Apr 18, 2017 5:01pm
Quoting aroxalot
YES, NO, WHY SO? Trump rally to blame maybe? Economic growth expectations exaggerated.
Most are no-where near highs so why a bubble?

If the US$ crashes then maybe higher prices but supplies are currently abundant with most commodities.
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  • #3
  • Apr 18, 2017 5:14pm Apr 18, 2017 5:14pm
1. Hello srt, just curious, what program are you using to make these nice commodities charts?
Very nice

2. No, especially since a "cheaper" US Dollar may give commodities a longer lease of life.

Quoting srt
{quote} Most are no-where near highs so why a bubble? If the US$ crashes then maybe higher prices but supplies are currently abundant with most commodities. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
  • #4
  • Apr 18, 2017 5:54pm Apr 18, 2017 5:54pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Most are no-where near highs so why a bubble? If the US$ crashes then maybe higher prices but supplies are currently abundant with most commodities. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
the trump rally, created an elevated price, led by speculators
Quant Trader - My Blog: quantstop.blogspot (dot) com
  • #5
  • Apr 18, 2017 6:59pm Apr 18, 2017 6:59pm
Quoting aroxalot
{quote} the trump rally, created an elevated price, led by speculators
Could you pick out 1 or 2 commodities that have an "elevated price, led by speculators"?

I must have missed the ones you're looking at.
  • #6
  • Apr 18, 2017 7:00pm Apr 18, 2017 7:00pm
Quoting w0qj
1. Hello srt, just curious, what program are you using to make these nice commodities charts? Very nice 2. No, especially since a "cheaper" US Dollar may give commodities a longer lease of life. {quote}
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ENERGY&p=m1
  • #7
  • Apr 18, 2017 8:31pm Apr 18, 2017 8:31pm
Hi srt,

wow, many thanks for your advice!
  • #8
  • Apr 18, 2017 10:27pm Apr 18, 2017 10:27pm
Well commodity is under bear cycle and expected to pick up long term bull trend anytime , just a solid trigger needed and you'll see stock market collapse.
Never Gamble Forex
  • #9
  • Last Post: Apr 27, 2017 2:55pm Apr 27, 2017 2:55pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Could you pick out 1 or 2 commodities that have an "elevated price, led by speculators"? I must have missed the ones you're looking at.
I have here a simple crude oil model accounting for 3 Global Macro factors:
OPEC output
Job Market Health (Non Farm Payrolls)
US Dollar FX rate

The Model is sufficiently accurate to have predicted the collapse of oil, so I argue it is at least a decent indicator.
The latest data is from January, however if you input all data, it still suggests overvalued Crude.
I cannot make another model at the moment, because it takes a while too build one, and I am an FX trader not a commodity trader.

EDIT: I accidently swapped the names of the lines, sorry about that.
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