Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

As we go through the lunch hour in North America with 3 hours of Equity trading left I want to REVIEW RISK OFF and CORRELATION and USD/JPY.

RISK OFF is SIMPLE to UNDERSTAND. Our First two Trade Plans worked to PERFECTION.

We SHORTED US 30 up to 3 positions each position being 100 units with this Trade Plan having MAXIMUM RISK of 6% for this Trade Plan.

We SHORTED SPX500 up to 3 positions each position being 50 units with this Trade Plan having MAXIMUM RISK of 6% for this Trade Plan.

Now we come to USD/JPY the first Currency Pair that we trade. The first two positions are called CFD trades.

Here is the 5 minute chart from Finviz showing the MOVEMENT (MONEY FLOW) and how it went along with what US 30 was doing.

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=m5

Here is the 5 minute chart from Finviz showing how US 30 also moved down sharply and Money Flowed in part for safe haven reasons or parking reasons into USD/JPY

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5

We call that trading with Money Flow and CORRELATION using a Trade Plan with Risk Management per Trade Plan of 6% MAXIMUM LOSS.

The results by trading these way can be seen by the results produced.


Benjaminis

https://mishtalk.com/2017/04/18/thud...rs/#more-45387



Thud: Housing Starts Plunge 6.8% as Sentiment Soars


18 Tuesday Apr 2017
Posted by Mish | April 18, 2017 12:37:11 | Economics


Unless housing starts data is another one-time affair, and it could be given the volatile nature of housing starts, this recovery is nearly over just as sentiment is peaking.


Econoday notes a 6.8% decline in housing starts for March to 1.215 million units seasonally adjusted annualized (SAAR).


The reported dip is vs an upward revision in February from 1.288 million SAAR to 1.303 million SAAR. Thus, the effective dip vs the as-reported number last month is an oversized 5.7%


The first quarter ended with a thud for housing starts which fell a very steep 6.8 percent to a 1.215 million annualized rate which is the weakest since November. Posting similar declines were both single-family homes, at an 821,000 pace, and multi-family, at 394,000. But both components do show nearly double-digit year-on-year growth though quarter-to-quarter rates are only slightly positive.

Permits appear to be the positive offset in this report, up 3.6 percent in the month for a 1.260 million rate that hits Econoday’s high forecast. But strength is entirely on the multi-family side, up 14 percent to a 437,000 rate, while single-family homes, which have more price punch, actually fell 1.1 percent to 823,000.

March data are often difficult when seasonal factors, including heavy weather, are often at play. But the weakness in starts and strength in permits do point to a possible and favorable theme for the first-half economy in general: weakness in the first quarter followed by a sizable rebound in the second. And a 1.5 percent gain in homes permitted but not started does hint at a coming rebound.

Recent History
Optimism among home builders has been very strong and acceleration is beginning to appear in actual residential construction.

Incessant Econoday Cheerleading
Econoday’s recent history comment about “acceleration” is amusing.

Those looking for a positive interpretation to any economic report need only turn to Econoday. If Econoday cannot find something positive to say, no one can.
Today meets the typical pattern as Econoday looks forward to that famed second-half recovery.

Plodding Along
If one looks at actual trends, not much has changed as this Census Bureau chart shows.
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=319
There is no reason to expect second-half acceleration. However, a one-month decline does not constitute a downward trend either.

My opening statement remains accurate, but with weakening economic data in numerous place, especially retail sales, worrying signs have picked up.
Finally, and in contrast to Econoday, this report does not change my economic forecast for first-quarter GDP, but it does lower my expectations for second-quarter GDP.

My first-quarter GDP forecast remains 0.4%.

For further discussion, please see GDP Forecasts Dip Again: Forecasts Compared.


Mike “Mish” Shedlock.

Comments from Benjaminis: More confirmation about the weakness of the USA Economy. This also blends in with the Martin A. Armstrong article on housing and REALITY that I shared here today.

Every time I visit the EUR/USD thread and read the posts that are done by the general EUR/USD Retail Forex Traders it causes me to say WOW !!!

I am going to share the last 6 posts on the EUR/USD just so you have a sense of the complete unawareness of what is going on. All feedback is welcome.

 

1. Post 1,104,506
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4. Apr 18, 1:57pm (4 min ago)

1. https://cdn-assets.forexfactory.net/...ar490540_1.gif eCOBB22
2. | Joined Sep 2016 | Status: Member | 145 Posts | Online Now

Anyone know what caused EUR spike?

 

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4. Apr 18, 1:57pm (3 min ago)

1. wukatrades
2. | Joined Jan 2017 | Status: Impulse Trader (Daredevil) | 130 Posts | Invisible

Quoting eCOBB22
Anyone know what caused EUR spike?
magic.
Don't listen to me

 

1. Post 1,104,508
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4. Apr 18, 1:57pm (3 min ago)

1. arash66110
2. | Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Member | 207 Posts | Invisible

Quoting MrPresident
{quote}
still LAUGHING !!!lol!!!

 

1. Post 1,104,509
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4. Apr 18, 1:58pm (3 min ago)

1. https://cdn-assets.forexfactory.net/...ar490540_1.gif eCOBB22
2. | Joined Sep 2016 | Status: Member | 145 Posts | Online Now

Quoting SnaveForex
{quote} that counter trend stategy burns account fast and wonna make you want to chase a trade so bad.
I know it was my mistake

 

1. Post 1,104,510
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4. Apr 18, 1:58pm (2 min ago)

1. https://cdn-assets.forexfactory.net/...ar490540_1.gif eCOBB22
2. | Joined Sep 2016 | Status: Member | 145 Posts | Online Now

Quoting wukatrades
{quote} magic.
So u don't know?

 

1. Post 1,104,511
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4. Last Post: Apr 18, 1:59pm (1 min ago)

1. SnaveForex
2. | Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Member | 3,022 Posts | Invisible

Quoting SnaveForex
all lock and loaded 1.0604 and added 0648. looking to add along 1.0680 or may be lower at least 0742 a target near term {image}
sellers will have to come in on signifant time frame h4 to confirm bears on the play ground still 0742 overshoot 0755 near term

15522155222552235522455225 Page 55226
218 traders viewing now, 74 are members:
Darastonius
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BenjaminIs
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sspasha
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Invisible
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dwe213
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eCOBB22

Now I share the last few posts on the USD/JPY thread.

 

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4. Apr 18, 11:19am (2 hr 49 min ago)

1. chnp
2. | Joined Mar 2017 | Status: Member | 40 Posts

Quoting ThreeHalf
I'm still long, but I'm a bit confused why the selldown. Would anyone care to enlighten me? Thanks.
Just before going down some blog says US army plans to shoot down NK's testing missile.

 

1. Post 65,396
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4. Apr 18, 11:26am (2 hr 42 min ago) | Edited Apr 18, 11:40am

1. https://cdn-assets.forexfactory.net/...ar382464_3.gif Onizuka
2. | Joined Sep 2014 | Status: Member | 96 Posts | Online Now

Quoting ensale
{quote} Not a triangle in my opinion ,, should be more obvious then that.
It is pressur. It not take care of opinion.

That is just how market works.

Market is Fractal, it follows a logic.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1492529122
Know Yourself

 

1. Post 65,397
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4. Apr 18, 11:44am (2 hr 24 min ago)

1. MrPresident
2. | New Member | Status: Member | 143 Posts

Quoting ThreeHalf
I'm still long, but I'm a bit confused why the selldown. Would anyone care to enlighten me? Thanks.
we are going to 108 so why are you long man?
don't blow up your account

 

1. Post 65,398
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4. Apr 18, 11:55am (2 hr 12 min ago)

1. dianajs
2. Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 451 Posts

I closed my long at 109.00 as I intended to and then I shorted after the pair formed the bearish spinning top bar on the H4 time frame below 109.20. I think next target is 108.20 again.

 

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4. Apr 18, 12:08pm (1 hr 59 min ago)

1. Tgytgy90
2. | New Member | Status: Junior Member | 7 Posts

I shorted at 108.95 TP : 108.20
the pattern is slowly descending if you guys noticed.:/

well, happy trading everyone.

 

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4. Last Post: Apr 18, 12:21pm (1 hr 47 min ago)

1. JoJosh
2. | Joined Jan 2017 | Status: Member | 11 Posts

Nice trade. But I may go long if price reaches the local low[COLOR=#FFFFFF !important]Ucussi[/color]

14 traders viewing now, 5 are members:
BenjaminIs
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ADance
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moshowfx
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ariel36sion
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jorgen.fx

Comments from Benjaminis: That is why 95% of all Retail Forex Traders lose their money and it does not need to be that way however that is the way it is so I can only be satisfied that I know how to be a winning Forex Trader and maybe along the way share my Knowledge and Experience with others that really want to learn and make an excellent living.

Good evening, ALL

I have been a way for the Easter holidays, and I am playing catch-up. I noted the discussion wrt the dollar index correlation with USD/JPY.
I have loaded USDX correlations specific for the USD/JPY etc. [http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market/correlation].
USDX - USD/JPY correlation 15 min, , and;

USDX - USD/JPY correlation 1Hour, , and;

USDX - USD/JPY correlation 4Hour, , and;

USDX - USD/JPY correlation Daily, .

I am off to bed..gd nite..

Hi Benjamin

Trading the last week, it was just confirmed again how powerful it is to trade with our edge. The longer you trade this way, building experience and confidence really helps. Knowledge is definitely powerful and trading the last week was also fun.

I closed out a position yesterday with a loss of +/-$1300 and today I made that loss back, but with the glitch in the SPX500 all of my positions also hit their limit outs, lets hope that it was closed at that price, when the glitch is resolved.

I don't know what else to say besides from test this method/way of trading for at least 3 full months on the demo account. Learn as much as you can from the posts, ask questions if you don't understand and after the 3 month period, review what you have learned and see where your account ends up.

http://www.bkassetmanagement.com/fea...th-lows_10743/

GBP Jumps 2%, US Yields Hits 5 Month Lows
No comments
April 18th, 2017

GBP Jumps 2%, US Yields Hits 5 Month Lows
Daily FX Market Roundup 04.18.17

Trading kicked off with a bang after the Easter holidays thanks to U.K. Prime Minister May who shocked the markets by calling a snap election in June. This announcement was completely unexpected even by those within her own government and goes against a vow to forgo calling another election before 2020.

The surprise is evident in the price action of pound, which rose nearly 400 pips between the European and NY trading session. While an argument can be made that the election introduces new uncertainty, a flash poll by ICM finds May’s party with a 21-point lead. The goal of the election is to shore up political support for all of the decisions that will need to be made over the next few months. As May said in her speech, “The country is coming together, but Westminster is not.” Of course she would not have called the elections without a great deal of confidence that she will win and based on sterling’s reaction investors also believe that Conservatives will sweep the votes.

If she succeeds like the market expects, the support of her people gives her strong negotiating power with the European Union. While the move in GBP/USD is overdone and the polls will most certainly narrow, it is important to remember that GBP can be a very trending currency and after today’s move, there is no resistance until 1.30.


The weakness of the U.S. dollar also helped to drive the British pound higher. U.S. yields fell sharply today on the back of disappointing U.S. data. Housing starts dropped -6.8% in the month of March, more than double expectations. Building permits increased and industrial production met expectations but these reports were not strong enough for investors to forget about all of the recent deterioration in spending, inflation and manufacturing activity.

The Beige Book is scheduled for release on Wednesday and while the U.S. economy in general continues to recover, if Fed districts report a slowdown, the dollar could extend its losses quickly.

USD/JPY has actually been fairly resilient considering that 10 year Treasury yields dropped over -7bp today to its lowest level since November. There’s clearly a lot of bids underneath 108.00 but unless U.S. data takes a turn for the better, it should only be a matter of time before this level breaks, giving way to a stronger move down to 106.

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: I have along with the confirmation of KeepCalmfx and another post late today confirmed that what brings USD/JPY down towards 106.00 is RISK OFF in the US Equity Markets. Safe Haven Money Flow.

Euro rose to its strongest level versus the U.S. dollar in 3 weeks. The move had nothing to do with the outlook for the Eurozone and was instead driven entirely by the weakness of the U.S. dollar and a sympathy rally with the pound.

Regardless of catalyst, EUR/USD broke above 1.07. We are weary of this rally as the U.K. election makes the French presidential election even more important and we are days away from the first round of voting in France with the polls showing Macron and Le Pen are neck to neck.

Investors will be watching the polls closely over the next 3 days as they digest incoming data. The Eurozone’s inflation and trade reports are scheduled for release on Wednesday followed by the Eurozone PMI reports on Friday. Economic conditions have been improving in the region but inflation remains low – so tomorrow’s reports may only provide limited support to the euro.

The Canadian and Australian dollars traded sharply lower today while the New Zealand dollar marched higher. The loonie collapsed on the back of a slowdown in existing home sales growth, lower oil prices and most importantly a sharp -7bp decline in 10 year Canadian bond yields.

Ten year rates dropped to their lowest level since November. The Australian dollar was hit by dovish RBA minutes. At the last central bank meeting, policymakers expressed specific concerns about the housing and labor. While some could argue that these minutes are no longer valid after the latest jobs report, the RBA also said while the “latest jobs report was better, they will remain cautious given volatility in the series.”

The New Zealand dollar on the other hand extended its gains on the back of rising dairy prices. The value of the country’s most important commodity increased for the third auction in a row, this time by 3.1%, which was the largest increase this year. The country’s PMI services report is scheduled for release this evening and we are looking for a firmer report given the sharp rise in the business PMI index.

Comments from Benjaminis: Since our specialty is MONEY FLOW, we know where the MONEY Flows to and how it affects Asset Classes and their values.

Please KEEP in MIND, now Asia needs to react to what happened in Europe and then the USA and then we see what Europe does at 2:00 AM Eastern Standard Time in Frankfurt, Germany and then see what the FTSE and the CAC and the DAX does starting at 3:00 AM Eastern Standard Time when the Equity Markets start trading in Europe.


Just Follow the Yellow Brick Road and Meet The Wicked Witch..... Translated just FOLLOW THE MONEY FLOW !!!

Thanks for your CORRELATION CHARTS Roger_SK

Here is my CORRELATION CHARTS THAT I PRODUCED IN MY POST FROM Finviz.

This is the DAILY CHART OF USD/JPY

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=d1

This is the DAILY CHART of US Dollar Index

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=DX

This is the DAILY CHART of US 30

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=YM

Can you please CONFIRM the VISUAL CONFIRMATION with the DAILY CORRELATION CHARTS that you produced.

This question can be answered by anyone that cares to.

Here is my complete post on this interesting and important to know topic.

 

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4. Apr 16, 2017 10:26am | Edited at 10:45am

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 2,373 Posts | Online Now

Good Day KeepCalmfx

I need your feedback and of course anyone else qualified or knowledgeable enough to answer my question please offer your opinion.

I had posted in the last few days an answer to power about the CORRELATION between the US 30 and SPX500 and USD/JPY along with the US Dollar Index.

I just read the USD/JPY thread and looked at the two excellent charts produced on this topic.

Have a look...

 

1. https://cdn-assets.forexfactory.net/...ar339698_1.gif houtiantan
2. | Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Member | 27 Posts

With the DXY bouncing off the 61.8 Fibonacci level on the multiyear chart, I think we have reasons to short the US dollar. I have been shorting USDJPY over the past weeks. Here's a good setup!
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1492342568 https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1492342598

My conclusion is that the US Dollar Index as the Finviz charts show is effectively NEUTRAL to USD/JPY going down towards 100.000

Please review and let me know if looking at the charts, the CORRELATION is clear when we have RISK OFF.

When the US 30 and SPX500 Sell Off money flows towards whatever safety they think there is until we go back to RISK ON.

Here is part of my post that went into this subject...

Here is the link that I found this morning on LinkedIn with one of his calls on USD/JPY.

https://media.licdn.com/mpr/mpr/shri...77/0505320.jpg
Michael Bridgman
Currency Trader and Forex Trading Coach at PrivateForexCoaching.com

A countertrend long on the USDJPY
http://www.privateforexcoaching.com/2017/04/a-countertrend-trade-long-on-the-usdjpy-to-end-the-trading-week/
https://image-store.slidesharecdn.co...f11-medium.png

On Edit at 4:25 PM Eastern Standard Time.

I have sent a PM to Michael on Linkedin which is where I met him and I have asked him for the cost of his course. He seems to be a Class Act and I found a testimonial from a Bank Trader that I will share now.


I have been trading Forex for six years as a professional institutional (bank prop) trader and as a trader for a central bank before that. I became very interested in taking Michaels course to learn how to successfully trade on a 15 minute chart which is not something I have done before as an institutional position trader. His course became a journey that opened my eyes to intraday trading and the use of very tight stop losses!

His 15 minute chart methodology is very intelligent, and his no-BS minimize risk approach can save your fiscal health whenever the market decides to roller coaster and move 150 pips in the other direction. This is not a plug and play indicator system that doesnt require thinking and evaluation.. It is a methodical trading method which promotes taking minimal risk to capture consistent profits with strict money management. Also, Michaels teaching style is personal and very informative. As others have said, he really cares that you succeed. As an institutional trader, I have found his strategy for trading on the 15 minute chart gives me a real edge. I highly recommend taking his course to anyone serious about forex trading!

Michael T European Bank Trader

Comments from Benjaminis for KeepCalmfx ... I am so tempted to drop everything that I have learned and teach and try his methods. Then I should be able to do 50% a Month (ROI) SMILE !!!

On Edit at 8:45 PM Eastern Standard Time...and finished at 9:00 PM Eastern Standard Time.

Sometimes I wish I could stop thinking and think of nothing except the Sun and the Moon and the Stars. However since that is not possible at this moment, I came back to add these comments. What starting me thinking is the comments of Mr Bridgman where he said that because the US Dollar Index went up the USD/JPY went down. Now we know that as the US 30 goes down so does USD/JPY. I do not factor the strength or weakness of the US Dollar Index in my CORRELATION.

So... what I just did is looked at an hourly chart from Finviz on USD/JPY from April 6, 2017 until today April 14, 2017.

Have a look at it and you will see USD/JPY went from 111.000 to 108.57... (A difference of 243 PIPS !!!)

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=h1

Now here is the hourly chart of US 30.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=h1

You can see it went from 20,800 on April 6, 2017 to 20,400 on April 14, 2017...

Now I will produce the hourly chart of US Dollar Index from April 6, 2017 to April 14, 2017...

You can clearly SEE that it started at 100.50 and finished at 100.50 So... IT HAD NO EFFECT ON THE MOVEMENT of the 243 PIPS towards 108.000 on USD/JPY.

Here is what Michael Bridgman said...

April 13, 2017 by Michael Bridgman
After a third higher low for the day and a stronger USD, a long trade is taken risking 10 pips. Price completed a reversal formation and closed above yesterdays low. When price bounced off its low today in the Asian session, buyers were entering at a very important level on the Daily chart. The USDJPY has been coming down all week and it was not surprising to see it move up today with a stronger USD. If todays low is retested and gives way, it will be very telling. If it price continues higher a break and daily close above 110.00 will be telling.
http://www.privateforexcoaching.com/...Y-1024x478.png
When taking countertrend trades, it is prudent to use tight stops and not to expect as many pips. Lock in profits along the way and get the risk out of the trade as soon as possible by moving your stop loss to a positive net position. Also its a good idea to take smaller size positions. As always read price which is the best indicator of all and protect your profits.

Enjoy the long weekend and good luck with your trading!

Comments from Benjaminis: Here is the part of the above that I am talking about. "it was not surprising to see it move up today with a (stronger USD). If todays low is retested and gives way, it will be very telling. If it price continues higher a break and daily close above 110.00 will be telling."

The STRONGER OR WEAKER US DOLLAR INDEX HAD NO EFFECT AND THE CORRELATION BETWEEN US DOLLAR INDEX and USD/JPY is clearly ZERO.

I would appreciate feedback on my observations. Thank You...

P.S. On Edit Again at 9:05 PM Eastern Standard Time...

I went back to his blog to look at this analysis of his on March 21, 2017. Here is what it says.

Riding the USDJPY down with the current USD weakness

March 21, 2017 by Michael Bridgman
Optimistic or not about President Trumps future policies, the USD is weak and being sold off. In particular, the USDJPY is vulnerable and it set up nicely today. After testing its Asian high and rolling over, a short is taken with a 15 pip stop loss. Price moved down then slowed down and took us out of our trade just before the U.S. Open. It then dropped for the first candle of the U.S. Open before reversing upward. At the first sign of selling another entry short was taken with a 13 pip stop loss for a potential 58 pips to our Daily Target.

Comments from Benjaminis: In my view and based on CORRELATION the STRENGTH or WEAKNESS of the US Dollar Index CANNOT and WILL NOT move USD/JPY down 243 PIPS. At least now I will not bother using it as a direct factor. What say you ?

Thanks


Benjaminis

ON EDIT at 10:45 AM

I looked at the USD/JPY chart that I copied and pasted here on this post and it is a 4 hour chart and the Dollar Index Chart is a long view going back to 2010 so we know that US 30 and SPX has been selling off in the last number of days and all the CORRELATION charts that I used from Finviz is all the same Time Frame.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ib...siness+News%29

TECHNOLOGY NEWS | Tue Apr 18, 2017 | 5:00pm EDT
IBM posts first revenue miss in five quarters, shares drop
http://s4.reutersmedia.net/resources...=LYNXMPED3H1AU
A woman passes by the IBM offices in New York City, U.S., October 17, 2016. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid -

International Business Machines Corp (IBM.N) reported a bigger-than-expected drop in revenue for the first time in five quarters due to weak demand in its technology services business, its biggest.

Shares of IBM, whose revenue has now fallen for 20 quarters in a row, tumbled 4 percent to $163.15 in trading after the bell on Tuesday.

The company said revenue declined 2.8 percent to $18.16 billion in the quarter ended March 31. Analysts on average were expecting $18.39 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Revenue at IBM's technology services and cloud platforms business, which provides IT infrastructure and cloud services, dropped 2.5 percent to $8.2 billion, or about 45 percent of total revenue.

The decline in infrastructure services revenue "reflects productivity delivered to clients and contract dynamics," IBM said in a presentation.

With demand for IBM's legacy hardware and software businesses stagnating, Chief Executive Ginni Rometty has been shifting the company towards "strategic imperatives" such as cloud-based services, security software and data analytics.

The growth in these "strategic imperatives", which are spread across the company's five reporting units, continued, with revenue increasing 12 percent in the first quarter. Revenue growth was 11 percent in the fourth quarter.

Revenue from "strategic imperatives" was $7.8 billion in the latest quarter, accounting for 42 percent of total revenue, compared with 37 percent last year.

IBM said gross profit margins fell in all five of its reporting units in the latest quarter, with total company-wide margins dropping to 42.8 percent from 46.5 percent.

The company's net income dropped to $1.75 billion, or $1.85 per share, from $2.01 billion, or $2.09 per share.

ALSO IN TECHNOLOGY NEWS

1. Yahoo's first-quarter revenue jumps 22 percent
2. Verizon, Corning agree to $1.05 billion fiber deal

Excluding items, IBM earned $2.38 per share, beating analysts' average estimate of $2.35.

The company also said it expects adjusted earnings of at least $13.80 per share for fiscal 2017, reiterating a forecast it gave on Jan. 19.

Since then, the average analyst estimate for earnings per share has risen from $13.74 to $13.78.

Up to Tuesday's close, IBM's shares had risen about 2.5 percent in 2017, less than the roughly 4 percent rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI.

(Reporting by Narottam Medhora in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'Souza)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...g-anytime-soon

The Single Reason Tax Reform Isn't Coming Anytime Soon
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...ture-20289.jpg
by Phoenix Capital...
Apr 18, 2017 10:55 AM



The market is finally waking up to what we’ve been telling our clients since February...


That Trump’s economic proposals, particularly his tax reform plan, would not be hitting in 2017.
This is not a political statement… the reality is that the math is not there… and the swamp makes reform slow-going…
If you don’t believe us, here’s Trump’s Treasury Secretary confirming it.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a published Monday with the Financial Times that enacting tax reform legislation by August is “highly aggressive to not realistic at this point."

The comments contrast with remarks Mnuchin made in March, when he said his goal would be to have a tax bill "signed" by August…

Source: The Hill.

Tax reform isn’t coming anytime soon. Neither is a healthcare reform. Nor infrastructure spending.

The reason?
The US is already saturated in debt… due to our financing a staggering amount of social entitlement spending which comprises 64% of the Federal Budget.


Even if Trump were to cut ALL non-entitlement and military spending programs by 20% across the board, he’d only free up $64 billion.


And by the way, the US is STILL running a deficit… indicating that much of this is being financed by money we don’t have.

Put simply: the math does not support any tax reform. The US is already spending more than it makes via taxes. The only way you can reform taxes or lower them is if the money comes from somewhere else.

Good. Luck. With. That.

This is a major warning to stock investors to be extra careful. Now more than ever is a time to be nimble and preparing to make money from a market “event.”


http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...PC417172_0.png
On that note we are already preparing our clients to profit from this with three simple investment strategies designed to pay out when the markets enter periods of heightened risk.

To learn them you can pick up a free Investment Report here:
http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/bondbubble2.html

Best Regards
Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research

Comments from Benjaminis: SPX500 SHORT up to 3 positions of 50 units is our Trade Plan Two.

I have two open positions of SPX500 at the moment. My locked in profit for the day on 6 trades is $1859.92 US Dollars. My 2 open positions of SPX500 has a DRAW DOWN of $46 US Dollars which includes $50 US Dollars in Rollover costs. $76,407.08 is my Equity right now having started with $50,000 US Dollars on February 21, 2017 So... this is my 56TH day of trading this account or 8 weeks. At over $26,000 US Dollars in locked in profits that is 52% rounded off or 26% a month.

I do not post these numbers for EGO or bragging rights ONLY to show you what can be accomplished at my level. You can see the numbers of KeepCalmfx when the SCREENSHOT is done.

https://mishtalk.com/2017/04/18/kans...ike-odds-sink/

Kansas City Fed says Rate Hikes “Necessary” as Weakness is “Transient”: June Rate Hike Odds Sink

18 Tuesday Apr 2017

Posted by Mish | April 18, 2017 2:27:02 | Economics

Esther George, president and chief executive officer of the Kansas City Fed says Continuing With Rate Rises Is ‘Necessary’.


She also claims weak economic data is “transient”.


Meanwhile, the market increasingly believes the economy is weakening and rate hikes are less likely.


Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George said on Tuesday the U.S. central bank needs to press forward with rate rises, adding it should also begin reducing its massive balance sheet later in the year.


She said both inflation and unemployment “are in range” of where the Fed would like to be, adding urgency to the need to push short-term borrowing costs higher. “The economy looks to be on solid footing,” Ms. George said, and “there is a sense that outcomes could actually be better than expected, rather than worse.” She added the prospect of greater government stimulus by way of taxation, regulatory and spending changes could also improve the outlook.


Ms. George added that it is important for the Fed to press forward with its increases and not be dissuaded by transient shifts in the economic data. “I am encouraged by the start of the normalization process and want to see it continue,” she said, explaining “resisting the temptation to react to near-term fluctuations in the data will be necessary.”


At the same time, given the Fed’s need to press forward with interest-rate rises, so too must its attention turn to its massive $4.5 trillion holdings of cash and securities, which grew rapidly in recent years as a result of the central bank’s efforts to stimulate growth in the economy in the wake of the financial crisis, the official said. Many Fed officials have expressed interest in starting to allow those holdings to shrink passively later in the year.


“I would support beginning the process of reducing the balance sheet this year,” Ms. George said. “The process should be on autopilot and not necessarily vary with moderate movements in the economic data,” in a view that also echoed that of her colleagues.

“I do not favor prolonging action for the purpose of allowing inflation to overshoot the 2% goal or to press labor markets into a condition where they are overheating,” Ms. George said. “Inflation that persistently deviates above or below the 2% objective would be cause for concern, but monetary policy need not react to temporary deviations” in the level of price pressures, she said.

Ms. George also said she doesn’t share her colleagues’ hopeful view about rising inflation. “I am not as enthusiastic or encouraged as some when I see inflation moving higher, especially when it has been driven by a sector like housing,” she said.



June Rate Hike Odds Sink
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=255
A few weeks ago, most forecasters (not me), considered a June rate hike a given. With weak retail spending and faltering housing starts, the odds of a hike in June are now under 50%.

The futures market believes the second and only subsequent hike this year will happen in September.

The CME odds of “no hike” are 50.4% in July dropping to 36.7% in September. But looking at the December futures, the market has still priced in only one more hike this year.

December Rate Hike Odds
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=254
One More Hike?

I doubt if there will be another hike this year, and the market is moving in that direction.


By the way, this is not a suggestion for the Fed to not hike, it is a prediction as to whether or not they will.

I do not know where interest rates should be, and clearly, neither do they. Fed policy has sponsored three major bubbles in the last 17 years.



Related Articles

1. April 5: Don’t Worry Weakness is Transitory: Fed Expects a Second Quarter Rebound, Higher Equity Prices
2. April 13: Econoday Parrot Squawks Again after Sentiment Rebounds to 17-Year High
3. April 14: Retail Sales Unexpectedly Decline, Revisions Even Worse
4. April 14: GDP Forecasts Dip Again: Forecasts Compared
5. April 18: Thud: Housing Starts Plunge 6.8% as Sentiment Soars

The words for the day are, “transient”, “transitory” and “second-half recovery”.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Comments from Benjaminis: Now you can see again that not knowing the difference between PERCEPTIONS sometimes based on SPIN and PURE OUT LIES cause you a surprise when REALITY BITES ... Just Like the GOLDMAN SAKS BAD numbers which SHOCKED the markets. After hours IBM's numbers also had a BAD MISS and is down now afterhours.

FROM WWW.JSMINESET,COM - Jim Sinclair

A Lesson In Life Handed To Me As A Kid By Blyth & Co.

Posted April 18th, 2017 at 1:10 PM (CST) by Jim Sinclair & filed under General Editorial.


It certainly applies to today’s gold market and Bill’s commentary titled “Gold Market Fluctuations Today”.

As you know, I spent my early years in finance as a market maker (specialist) for an average of 35 different companies successfully. Things tend to go to your head as a kid until you get this strange idea that you could never make an error.


Blyth & Co in 1958 had a head trader renowned for his talent. I felt I witnessed some market weakness entering a situation I was a market maker in at that time. I flipped the key on our direct phone wire to Blyth & Co asking for his market on this company. He replied 12 bid 12 1/2 offered (12 to 12 1/2). Being a cocky kid, I offered what was then a considerable block of shares at $12. He bought them all to my surprise. Blyth then asked me if I had any more to sell?

I said maybe, but I would be back to him. I knew I was in trouble so I flipped my direct line to Marty McNeill at Vilas and Hickey using him to check Blyth’s market on this item. Marty came back to me with the bad news 12 1/8 to 12 5/8. That was more electric shock that my short was in trouble. Marty did not make this market therefore was not competition to Blyth as I was.

I told Marty to cover my short at the market plus 1/8 to him and and take a long position of the same size for me as an agent. Of course by the end of the day it was 14 bid.


Today in gold there was a multi-billion paper sale of gold on the Comex which took gold down only to reverse up and now exceed more than $6 from the low caused by the paper sale of billions in gold in seconds.


This is, in my opinion, a repeat of Blyth’s life lesson to me of trading. Someone bought that multi million offering of paper gold and then continued to buy pushing the price up above the sale prices.


I do not care if there seller was the Fed or King Midas himself. Gold is headed up the magnets to a new high and then higher with of course great drama as only gold can provide.

Regards,
Jim

—————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-


Jim/Bill,
Anybody with even the slightest inkling of price understands the relationship of the Dollar to Gold.


When the Dollar drops hard, gold goes higher….hard!

It’s simple….gold is priced in Dollars and hence a cheaper Dollar means you must pay more Dollars per ounce.
We all know this.

This morning the Dollar dropped hard…well below 100 on the DXY.


Yet, someone decided to dump 22,000 contracts in the face of a collapsing Dollar. That’s $3, billion notional value!

Only and idiot would not go/stay long gold in the face of a dropping Dollar.

And if this idiot really wanted to get out of gold, he would have sold slowly to get the best price for gold.

Since traders, especially commodity traders, are not idiots…it could only be the Fed.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Despite Dollar Dump, Gold Just Got Slammed By $3 Billion Notional Sale
April 18, 2017
While the dollar index tumbles to its lowest level since days after the election…
https://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content...e001_thumb.jpg
Someone decided this morning was an opportune time to dump over 22,000 gold futures contracts (almost $3 billion notional) sparking a quick plunge in the precious metal…



Someone decided this morning was an opportune time to dump over 22,000 gold futures contracts (almost $3 billion notional) sparking a quick plunge in the precious metal...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...418_gold_0.jpg

Well that didn't last long...

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.co...u-this-summer/

Chaos Coming To A Market Near You This Summer


By Lee Adler. Posted On Tuesday, April 18th, 2017


This month the Fed is adding $23.4 billion in cash to Primary Dealer Trading Accounts in the period April 12-20. This is slightly more than the March addition of $21.9 billion, the smallest add since January 2016. It was a sharp decline from Februarys $41.6 billion.

You may have thought QE ended in late 2014, and it did, but the Fed has continued to add cash to the financial markets every month. It does so via the purchases of mortgage backed securities (MBS). It calls them "replacement purchases." The Fed is the bank for the banks, i.e. the central bank. It has resolved since 2009 to force trillions in excess cash into the banking system and make sure that that money stays in the system. It has also resolved to make sure that the amount of the cash in the system does not shrink. It does that each month via its program of MBS replacement purchases.


The Primary Dealers are selected by the Fed for the privilege of trading directly with the Fed in the execution of monetary policy. This is essentially the only means by which monetary policy is transmitted directly to the securities markets, and then indirectly into the US and world economies. The only means which the Fed uses in the transmission and execution of monetary policy is via securities trades with the Primary Dealers.


When the Fed buys MBS to replace those paid down from its balance sheet, it does so via trades with Primary Dealers. It buys MBS via forward purchase contracts which are typically settled in the next month or the following month. The Fed is only keeping the amount of its assets level. But it pumps billions in cash into the accounts of Primary Dealers each month as part of that process.


The dealers are in the business making markets in a broad spectrum of securities, including MBS. Their biggest customer is the Fed. When the Fed cashes out the dealers by purchasing MBS from them, the dealers can both leverage and redeploy that cash to not only buy more MBS, but to purchase whatever other securities it wants to. Stocks are a favored vehicle. The Fed cashes out the dealers when it settles the MBS purchases around the third week of the month each month. Even though the amount of cash in the system is roughly static, the Fed is still pumping cash into Primary Dealer accounts each month. That has an impact on the stock market. It's obviously not the only impact, but it's still part of the central bank game of rigging the market.
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.co...Capture-40.png
The Fed holds about $1.8 trillion of these MBS on the asset side of its balance sheet. That amount would decline every month as a result of the regular flow of mortgage payoffs. That flow fluctuates based on market conditions. When you sell your home, the buyer uses the cash proceeds of a new mortgage to pay you cash you use to pay off your mortgage. That mortgage may well be part of an MBS pool owned by the Fed. As homebuyers pay off thousands of old mortgages each month, the Fed's holdings of MBS decline.


COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: PLEASE CLICK ON THE LINK FOR THIS PICTORIAL EXPOSE !!!


Likewise, if you refinance your mortgage, the funds from your new mortgage will pay off your old mortgage. Refinancing activity also results in the paydown of the Fed's MBS holdings each month. When mortgage rates fall, refinancing activity increases. When rates consistently fall to new lows as they did from 2014 to mid 2016, refi activity booms and the Fed's MBS holdings fall faster. The Fed then had to increase its MBS replacement purchases. Refi activity reached its peak in the July-September period last year when mortgage rates hit their lows around 3.4%. Then rates rose and refi activity shrank. The Fed's replacement MBS purchases followed a few months later.
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.co...Capture-39.pngWhen mortgage rates rise, refi activity dries up, and the Fed's MBS holdings are only reduced by the mortgages paid off by home sellers. The Fed then reduces its replacement purchases. Ironically, the more rates rise, the less help the Fed will give the market because its replacement purchases will be shrinking.

Each month the Fed replaces the MBS paid down from its balance sheet with purchases of new MBS in the amount that was paid down the prior month. In so doing, it keeps the level of its assets roughly level. The other side of that coin is that it keeps the level of cash in the banking system level. That banks hold that cash as reserves in their accounts at the Fed.

There is a lag of 5-6 months between the drop in mortgage rates and the increase in the settlement of the Feds replacement purchases. With mortgage rates coming off their recent highs this month, there will be a slight increase in refi activity. That causes an increase in MBS paydowns, which the Fed will replace in the next month by buying MBS from the Primary Dealers. Then it takes another month or two for those purchases to settle.

By then the Fed may have begun to implement its proposed policy of normalizing the balance sheet. Thats a nice way of saying shrinking the balance sheet. To do that the Fed is proposing to allow its Treasury holdings to mature and not be rolled over. Its also proposing not replacing its MBS holdings as they are paid down. So instead of a small addition to the Feds MBS purchases from the Primary Dealers a few months down the road, the Fed will indirectly withdraw money from the banking system and the markets by allowing its MBS holdings to be paid down rather than replaced. Its assets will shrink and the reserve deposit liabilities backed by those assets will disappear. There will be less cash in the banking system.

By doing it slowly over several years, the Fed may be able to avoid crashing the market. I use the word may with reason. Any shrinkage of the Feds assets will increase the odds of an accident. Slow and steady tightening will act like the drip, drip, of a Chinese water torture. It will promulgate a bear market in stocks. Accidents do tend to happen in bear markets. The drip, drip, drip eventually drives the market into a panic.

I have written over the past few years since the Fed started talking about raising the Fed Funds rate that well know the Fed is really serious about tightening monetary conditions when it starts shrinking the balance sheet. Raising interest rates won't stop a bubble, but removing money from the system will. Right now the Fed is in the signaling stage. Theyre talking about it. When the Fed talks about an idea, it eventually gets around to doing it. The Street is already telling you it will be no big deal. Dont believe it. I would be selling the rallies.

This report is excerpted from Lee Adler's Wall Street Examiner Pro Trader Monthly Macro Liquidity Report.

Comments from Benjaminis: Now you know what really goes on in the markets and they are NOT FREE MARKETS at the moment.

This is my last post for today. Be back tomorrow around 7:00 AM Eastern Standard Time...

http://www.investmentzen.com/news/10...in-us-history/

. LEHMAN BROTHERS

1. Date: 2008
2. Amount: $639 Billion in assets lost in bankruptcy.
3. The Scam: Hiding billions of risky investments.
4. Caught!: Bankruptcy (the largest in history)
5. Restitution: $65 billion to settle creditors’ claims (the equivalent of 14 cents on the dollar)
6. Criminal Charges: None.

WASHINGTON MUTUAL

1. Date: 2008
2. Amount: $65 Billion: An estimated $10 Billion in preferred stock losses and $55 Billion in common stock losses
3. The Scam: Mortgage Fraud
4. Caught!: FDIC stepped in.
5. Restitution: Sold to JPMorgan Chase for $1.9 Billion. Executives agreed to a $64 million settlement, however all but $400,000 of that amount was covered by insurance policies WaMu purchased to protect their executives.
6. Criminal Charges: None.

FANNIE MAE

1. Date: 2004
2. Amount: $11 Billion
3. The Scam: Securities Fraud
4. Caught!: SEC Investigation
5. Restitution: $400 million settlement
6. Criminal Charges: None

FREDDIE MAC

1. Date: 2003
2. Amount: $5 Billion
3. The Scam: Securities Fraud
4. Caught!: SEC Investigation
5. Restitution: $50 million settlement
6. Criminal Charges: 4 former Freddie Mac executives paid a total of $515,000 in civil fines and $275,548 in restitution payments.

ENRON

1. Date: 2001
2. Amount: $78 Billion in stock losses, 5000 employees lost jobs, many lost pensions
3. The Scam: Accounting Fraud
4. Caught!: Enron employee Sherron Watkins brought it to light.
5. Restitution: A Class Action Settlement of $7.185 billion was the largest of all time
6. Criminal Charges: Jeff Skilling (former president) got the longest prison sentence at 24 years, his sentence was later reduced by 10 years. CEO Kenneth Lay was convicted of fraud, conspiracy, and bank fraud, but died of a heart attack before receiving a sentence.

Greetings Benjamin

My curiosity in your post was partially due to my own interest in the USDX EUR/USD correlation. I was following the USDX and EURX. The EUR/USD has a slightly stronger correlation than the USD/JPY as indicated in the tables posted.
I noticed the correlation was stronger at the 5, 15 & 30 min level, it then breaks down on the 1 hour and gets stronger and again on the 4 Hour etc. I think that this correlation is stronger during risk off /on events. It makes sense for me, since the "MONEYFLOW" should leave a footprint. The money flow occurs at the moment the markets perception is influenced by geopolitical events, and then ebbs and flows at that pace resulting in a stronger correlation on the lower time frames. It stops at some point and the market resumes or continues etc. The correlation % change can be observed on the following chart with the movement of the mouse on this site: ( http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market...on/USDX-USDJPY ). Hope I am not breaking any forum rules.
I also observed that the EURX and USDX market moves a step behind the EUR/USD and changed direction to often. Having the EDGE is a better play. The DJ 30 for risk off/on is a for me the better indicator.
Also in the USDX / DXY basket the Yen has a 13.6 weighting and it is my understanding that the Trade-weighted US dollar index more accurately reflect the strength of the dollar relative to other currencies.
These are my thoughts and will as always appreciate if it needs correction/ guidance….

Roger_SK

Thank you for your reply. You started your post by talking about your interest in USDX EUR/USD correlation. I have read your post carefully and have thought about it in my terms of reference since our minds usually go in the directions of our thoughts.Over the years as I have refined my method of trading with MONEYFLOW and as a good example of the CORRELATION between RISK OFF and USD/JPY just look at the EUR/USD as we have RISK OFF or RISK ON.

It did not move very much and our own Trade Plans on EUR/USD is either Long or Short. That decision does need to factor in not only financial issues. The GEOPOLITICAL becomes very important especially this weekend as first round elections take place in France. Yesterday the unexpected election call on June 8 in Britain had a BLACK SWAN effect on USD/GBP. That in turn caused weakness in the US Dollar Index and because of that EUR/USD got much stronger.

The main reason because the Euro makes up 57.6% of the US Dollar Index. So we have MONEYFLOW here yet it is Money Flow that does not use as it's guide RISK OFF as it does in the US Equity Markets so breaking down the CORRELATION in different time frames defeats the purpose of using our MONEY FLOW strategy since we are trading the IMMEDIATE and specifically the 5 minute and 15 minute time frames.

Please let me know if you understand the point that I am making. In Forex at this point in time there is great uncertainty so it is hard to plan that far ahead so looking at daily charts as I have been stating here on this thread causes a FALSE BIAS because to trade Forex and WIN , you need to have NO BIAS.

Let the MONEY FLOW show you where to go.

It has been an interesting discussion and it helps to have a better understanding of MONEY FLOW and Charts and Time Frame which changes the main subject of time flow. I used the Daily Chart myself in this discussion to show that the actual movement of US Dollar Index to USD/JPY had no effect in moving the USD/JPY the 243 PIPS and that confirms my thinking of comparing Apples to Apples not Apples to Oranges. In this we trade the IMMEDIATE because we need to determine whether we have RISK OFF or RISK ON each day.

KeepCalmfx please share with me your thoughts since you and myself understand our methods so your reply will follow my thoughts however stated in your words and another way maybe better of saying the same thing. Even though some here think this is a complex method or way of Forex trading to learn it really is quite simple. Please keep in mind we teach 100% of everything here and MONEY FLOW , Our EDGE is just 20% of what we share. That part is the easiest part to understand if we keep it simple. It needs no complex analysis because it just is what it is.

The hardest thing that needs to be done is to start to understand and STOP trading the charts as your main way of making Forex Decisions.


Benjaminis

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/fe...use-2008-redux

Truth is a rare commodity on Wall Street. You have to sift through tons of dirt to find the golden ore. For example, main stream analysis of the Fed's current monetary policy claims that it will be able to normalize interest rates with impunity. That assertion could not be further from the truth.


The fact is the Fed has been tightening monetary policy since December of 2013, when it began to taper the asset purchase program known as Quantitative Easing. This is because the flow of bond purchases is much more important than the stock of assets held on the Fed's balance sheet.

The Fed Chairman at the time, Ben Bernanke, started to reduce the amount of bond purchases by $10 billion per month; taking the amount of QE from $85 billion, to 0 by the end of October 2014.


The end of QE meant the Fed would no longer be pushing up MBS and Treasury bond prices (sending yields lower) with its $85 billion per month worth of bids. And that the primary dealers would no longer be flooded with new money supply in the form of excess bank reserves. In other words, the Fed started the economy down the slow path towards deflation.


One of the greatest economic indicators is the steepness of the Treasury yield curve. A steep curve indicates inflation and strong growth; whereas a flat yield curve is indicative of economic stagnation and deflation.

Therefore, the view that the Fed has been in tightening mode for the past three years can be proven by the fact that the spread between the 10 and 2-Year Note yield began to collapse on the very month that the Fed began to Taper QE.

That difference was 260 basis points in December 2013, but narrowed all the way down to just 76 basis points by the summer of 2016. Then, after a small recovery to 134 bps -- mostly due to the enthusiasm caused by the election of Donald Trump -- the spread is quickly retreating back towards 100 bps.

10-Year Treasury Minus 2-Year Treasury
It is no coincidence that the 2-10 spread began to contract concurrently with the Fed's taper of QE. Tapering is indeed tightening, even though the Fed tends to believe in a stock versus flow analysis. But now, Chair Yellen and the other members of the FOMC have indicated that two or three more rate hikes during this year are a distinct possibility.

This is in addition to already increasing the Fed Funds Rate by 25bps in both December of 2016 and March of this year. Even more, the Fed has proposed to cease rolling over its asset holdings; as its $2.4 trillion worth of Treasuries and $1.7 trillion in MBS securities mature. That process is scheduled to begin by the end of 2017.

What this amounts to is a reverse QE program or Quantitative Tightening; where the Fed not only reduces the monetary base but also causes MBS and longer-dated Treasury yields to rise.

However, this tightening is occurring in the context of anemic and slowing growth. No longer is the economy slumping along with the sub-par growth of 2% experienced since 2010. GDP growth expanded by just 1.6% during all of 2016 and is growing at a 0.5% annualized rate in Q1, according to the Atlanta Fed Model.


Therefore, the Fed has most likely already tightened monetary policy enough to throw the economy into a recession. After all, the history of the Fed is marked by one that blows up asset bubbles and then crashes the economy when it removes its accommodation. The yield curve is telling investors that raising the Fed Funds Rate when the March NFP growth was only 98k and Q1 GDP growth has a zero handle, will cause the yield curve to invert and retard the growth rate of money supply to an even greater extent.


This makes perfect sense because raising the overnight interbank lending rate does not increase long-term rates unless growth and inflation are already running hot. Clearly, this is not currently the case.

Once the Fed inverts the curve a brutal recession will be at the door. But our government will not have nearly as much ammunition to fight the economic contraction as it did during the Great Recession circa 2008. This is because the Fed's balance sheet has increased by $3.7 trillion and the National Debt has doubled to $20 trillion. Hence, our government and central bank are already overleveraged.

Our debt-disabled economy with a record $63 trillion in outstanding obligations (340% of GDP), which was fundamental in blowing up the triumvirate of asset bubbles that are extant in stocks, bonds, and real estate, cannot handle increasing debt service payments. Hence, this next recession will be a very remarkable one indeed.

Ms. Yellen and Company may be blind to these dynamics, but investors do not have to be.

Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS). PPS is a Registered Investment Advisory Firm that provides money management services and research for individual and institutional clients.

Michael is a well-established specialist in markets and economics and a regular guest on CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg, FOX Business News and other international media outlets. His market analysis can also be read in most major financial publications, including the Wall Street Journal. He also acts as a Financial Columnist for Forbes, Contributor to thestreet.com and is a blogger at the Huffington Post.

Prior to starting PPS, Michael served as a senior economist and vice president of the managed products division of Euro Pacific Capital. There, he also led an external sales division that marketed their managed products to outside broker-dealers and registered investment advisors.

Additionally, Michael has worked at an investment advisory firm where he helped create ETFs and UITs that were sold throughout Wall Street. Earlier in his career he spent two years on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. He has carried series 7, 63, 65, 55 and Life and Health Insurance Licenses. Michael Pento graduated from Rowan University in 1991.

Comments from Benjaminis: With respect to everyone reading our thread. This article makes it so clear to me and it should to everyone else that these are the issues and awareness that you need to have. How hard is it to read this and understand it ? It tells you more in one article then dozens of others that explain similar themes such as the ones by David Stockman and Martin A. Armstrong and Jim Rickards.

Think outside the box. Start thinking for yourself. To make the POINT even further I am going to go to Finviz now and link charts on a daily basis for the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds. This will show much more than many things and to keep your eyes on the spread gives you another EDGE and the more EDGES that you have the better will be your Forex trading results. Knowledge and Experience is the KEY to SUCCESS.

2 Year US Bonds from Finviz on a daily chart.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZT&p=d1

10 Year US Bonds from Finviz on a daily chart.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=d1


Please post your questions because that is the only way that you will learn. Just coming here to read will not advance your NEW way of thinking and if you will just go back to your way of trading Forex than the benefits that you might get is greatly diminished. In the end the only thing that counts is RESULTS.

Every day I need to have results because if I do not then all that I am doing is living a fantasy and life is too short to do that.

Hi Benjamin

My understanding of the the EUR/USD is much clear now.

Good Day

Hope Everyone is doing well.

Here are the charts.

KeepCalmfx

I now have my full 3 positions on US 30 and my full 3 positions on SPX500. When you are able please take a SCREENSHOT for me. How did you make out with those unclosed positions from yesterday? I closed one and left 2 open. Now I have added positions and hold 6 in total as the SCREENSHOT will show

Thank you for your efforts.


Benjaminis

Power Hello

Are you ready to open a FXCM UK $50,000 US Funds Demo Account to learn on or have you already done that ? Please let me know.


Benjaminis