Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

Looks like Target No. 1 is approaching 109.21.... lets see what happens into the Euro Session

http://www.fxtechstrategy.com/how-th...ning-the-game/

How the 5% Traders Are Winning the Game
by Mohammed Isah | May 7th, 2015


Some people are afraid of success; others fear failure. Either way, the expression of the behavior is the same-not doing what is necessary and known in order to achieve success.


If you purchase a program that doesn’t help you select trades and have clearly defined entry and exit points, it’s incomplete.

If you purchase a program that doesn’t clearly separate risk management tools from money management tools, it’s incomplete.

If you don’t have a clear way to create a trading plan from the core ideas presented to you in the program, then it’s incomplete.

It is constantly said that 95% of traders lose money when it comes to trading. That means that 5% of the traders are collecting all of the profits. What are they doing differently?


There are four areas of a trade that have to be managed correctly in order for a trader to feel satisfied in his trading, whether he wins or loses. You have to know why you are selecting a trade, how to enter a trade, how to properly monitor the trade you are in, and, finally, how to exit the trade to the best of your ability.


If your decision-making process is faulty in any one of these key areas, you will start to cycle through the six emotions and become discouraged in your abilities as a trader.


Selecting Trades Properly
This is where so many traders go wrong. From the outset they don’t know what type of trader that they want to be. The guru is a day trader or an option-only trader, so you should be, too.

If the guru is trading a $50,000 account or recommends a $10,000 account, you should immediately follow suit.

Wrong!
You must trade to your strengths, interests, seed capital, time constraints, and abilities. Look at the experience of the program creator and realistically look at yourself. If you can’t stomach day trading, don’t do it.

If position trading is too stressful for you, don’t do it. Whatever the case, avoid putting on trades that simply don’t match who you are as a person.


If you are looking to stretch your boundaries into new trading arenas, first use a demo account and apply, to the best of your ability, the same conditions that you would experience if you were actually trading that way. As we know, ideal conditions never set the rule-they prove exception.


A little self-knowledge can go a long way to diminishing or eliminating improper trades from your lifestyle.


Entering Trades Properly
This leads us into how to enter a trade. In order to make a trade successful, you have to know how you are going to get out and what you have at risk. By fixating on the profits, you set yourself up for failure. The reality of trading is that profits take care of themselves.

If you have picked a good trade and the market is going in the right direction, there is little you can actively do to make that trade any better.

However, the question in the back of your mind should always revolve around: “What if I am wrong?” By entering a trade with that question on your mind, you can figure out if the trade is worth taking at all.

Successful trade entry is based solely on what you will do to exit.

Often, this has to take into account what risk management tools you will use in order to make the trade successful.


Monitoring the Trade
If you are a position trader, why are you watching the market hour by hour? If you are a swing trader, why are you looking at end-of-day results? These are genuine questions I have had to ask clients over the years. The key reasons fall back on one of two answers.

They don’t want to put a “stop order” in the market because they are afraid their stops will be run, so they keep mental stops and sit at their screen to get out fast; or they just like to “watch the market.” They are actually letting every tick on the screen influence how they act or, more importantly, how they will react to the market.

Whatever the reason of how and why a trader monitors the market, the core reason is fear.

They don’t trust the judgment that they have used to get into the trade, and they really don’t know how to protect themselves from losses besides either ignoring the market completely or watching tick by tick to anticipate what will happen next in the market.


Successful monitoring has to also have a back-up plan. Much like chess, you need to be three, five, maybe even seven moves ahead of your opponent. There is only one way to succeed in a trade: The market has to move in your direction. But there are at least two ways to lose: the market moves against you or the market does nothing.


If you prepare for these contingencies, your monitoring becomes a function of your preparation, not a crutch to rescue a trade that goes bad.

Exiting the Trade
Who determines how you get out of a trade, you or the market?

If it’s you, then maybe your actions are reactionary or you simply don’t have enough capital to be trading the markets that you are in. This is exactly why you have to know yourself when you execute a trade.

How you got in the market should be the exact reason why you get out of the market, if the markets fundamentally shift supply and demand in the opposite direction of your initial position.

When the market shifts, you should have targets in place to capture profits you have made or to protect your principal. These don’t necessarily need to be monetary targets; they could be overbought/oversold indicators, Bollinger bands, and so on.

The key point is that you have a reason for why you do what you do, coupled with a back-up plan that helps you reenter the market without being whipsawed or chasing the markets.

The exact way you get out of a trade will have a direct impact on how you get back into the market. It will determine if you can even get back in or if it’s too late, or if you can double up on your contracts, or if it’s time to find a new market altogether.


The exit, profits, and losses, should all be carefully prepared far in advance of ever putting your first dollar on the trade. This is the only way to prepare for an exit of a trade-leave a little room for unpleasant surprises.

Written by Noble DraKoln, he is founder of Speculator Academy, http://www.speculatoracademy.com. After becoming a licensed broker at the age of nineteen, he has gone on to author seven trading books. He is a former editor of Futures Magazine, regular contributor to Forbes, has been a featured guest on numerous financial channels, and is a sought after consultant speaker in the futures, forex, and options world. Needless to say his twenty-one years in the industry have been well spent.

He is also the author of the books Trade Like a Pro, Winning the Trading Game, published by Wiley and Sons, and the author of four book “Small Speculators Series”.
His books have been translated into German, Romanian, and is currently being translated into Chinese, Korean, and Spanish.

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: I had saved this article from 6/16/2013 when I had printed it out. What I find interesting is that is what we teach here.

We just do not trade because we trade. We have a Trade Plan. We know when we enter and when we should exit. We plan things out. We have an EDGE.

We show results and answer questions and there is no magic formula. It is about KNOWLEDGE and EXPERIENCE.

Our only goal is to have and control our fear and our greed and earn money by doing it a planned realistic professional way all the while teaching on a Demo Account.



Benjaminis

http://www.bkassetmanagement.com/dai...ressure_10740/

MYSTERY PM ANNOUNCEMENT HAS CABLE UNDER PRESSURE



April 18th, 2017

Market Drivers April 18, 2017
RBA cast a dour note
Cable takes out 1.2600
Nikkei 0.31% Dax -0.33%
Oil $52/bbl
Gold $1286/oz.

Europe and Asia:
AUD RBA Minutes

North America:
USD Building Permits 8:30
USD Housing Starts 8:30
USD Industrial Production 9:15

The quiet lull of FX dealing was ruptured today in morning London trade when the PM May office announced that it will make a statement at 11:15 local time. No specifics were given as to the nature of the announcement but traders reacted quickly selling the pound down to 1.2520 from 1.2600 within a matter of minutes. There was some speculation that Ms. May may call an early snap election, but her office quickly quashed those rumors.

For now cable remained above the 1.2500 mark but the pair was sure to see more volatility once the news is released.

The dollar remains under pressure as US yields have compressed significantly over the past week, driven lower by disappointing economic data, geopolitical tensions with North Korea and legislative chaos in Washington DC. With little evidence on the horizon that any of these problems will be solved soon, the greenback could remain depressed for the rest of the week, with short still targeting the 108.00 figure as their initial target.

Meanwhile in Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes cast a dour note on Asian session trade, as the central bank expressed concerns about the labor market conditions in the country. Although Australian monetary authorities acknowledged the recent improvement in the headline numbers, they noted that pick up in job has not resulted in increase in household consumption – a fact that clearly worried policy makers. The central bank even dropped, “Looking forward, year-ended growth was expected to pick up gradually to be above its potential rate over the forecast period” statement, signaling that it was concerned about growth going forward.

The minutes weighed on the Aussie which drifted lower all night long falling to a low of .7538 in early London dealing after being above the .7600 figure yesterday. It remains to be seen if the RBA worries are simply a short term phenomenon that will be assuaged by the recent blowout labor data numbers, or whether this cautious attitude will persist for the rest of the year. For now the market sees the central bank as firmly neutral, with little chance of changing its posture anytime soon and that should cap any rally in AUDUSD to the .7600 figure for the foreseeable future.

In North America today, the docket carries only second tier data with Housing starts, Building permits and Industrial Production on the calendar. Nevertheless, the reports could have impact on dealing, especially if they miss expectations and confirm the recent market consensus that US growth is stalling.

Comments from Benjaminis: Good Day Retail Forex Traders

There has been a call for early elections in Britain on June 8, 2017. This is the best example that I can possibly give for the following statement that I will make.

In today's markets Politicians LIE most of the time. Bankers LIE ALL OF THE TIME. https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...4&d=1492511436

To trade in these markets without STRONG Risk Management Strategy is to GUARANTEE FAILURE and LOSS of Funds.

Look at the Chart of USD/GBP from Finviz,

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=GBPUSD&tf=m5

You can see the initial reaction and then you can see the REVERSAL. That is the MAJOR REASON that trading by the charts alone wherher SCALPING or forming a FALSE BIAS going long as in trading USD/JPY to go back to 110.00 removes all objectivity in your Forex trading.

I have much more to say however I just wanted these comments to be the FOCUS of this post.

Benjaminis

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...deal-in-common

Credit Card Nation: Why The Facebook Killer And The U.S. Congress Have A Great Deal In Common
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/w...icons/user.gif By Michael Snyder, on April 17th, 2017


http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/w...ce-460x329.jpgMost Americans have seemingly convinced themselves that as a society we will never pay a great price for going into so much debt and that we will never pay a great price for the horrendous crimes against humanity that we are committing on a daily basis. If you don’t understand what I am talking about, just keep reading the rest of this article. Just as there are consequences for our actions individually, so there are also consequences for our actions as a society. And although our national day of reckoning has been put off for quite some time, when it does finally arrive the pain is going to be absolutely unimaginable.


Just recently, I was astounded to learn that the total amount of credit card debt in the United States has crossed the trillion dollar mark. It boggles my mind that so many Americans could be so foolish, because credit card debt is one of the worst forms of debt in existence, and financial experts all over the country have spent an extraordinary amount of time and energy trying to get this message across to people.


But even though people know that going into credit card debt is bad, they just keep on doing it anyway. We have become a “buy now, pay later” society that gives very little consideration to long-term consequences.


On a national level, we are now nearly 20 trillion dollars in debt, and a historic showdown over government spending and debt threatens to absolutely paralyze the federal government at the end of this month. At this point many believe that it will be virtually impossible for Congress to avoid a government shutdown on April 29th, and once it begins Donald Trump’s entire agenda will come to a complete and total crashing halt until the crisis is resolved. The following comes from David Stockman…


In the meanwhile, everything else — health care reform, tax cuts, infrastructure — will become backed-up in an endless queue of legislative impossibilities.

Accordingly, there will be no big tax cut in 2017 or even next year. For all practical purposes Uncle Sam is broke and his elected managers are paralyzed.


The Treasury will be out of cash and up against a hard stop debt limit of $19.8 trillion in a matter of months. But long before that there will be a taste of the Shutdown Syndrome on April 28 owing to the accumulating number of “poison pill” “riders” to the CR.


These include the virtual certainty of riders to the House bill to “defund” Planned Parenthood and sanctuary cities. Other extraneous amendments will also possibly include funds demanded by the White House to start the Mexican Wall, enhance deportations and fund some of Trump’s $54 billion defense increase.

I am so glad that Stockman mentioned Planned Parenthood, because the decision whether or not to continue funding Planned Parenthood is going to be one of the central issues of this upcoming crisis.

Currently, the U.S. government gives Planned Parenthood roughly $500,000,000 a year. By law, none of that money is supposed to be used to provide abortions, but everyone knows what the real deal is.


Some Planned Parenthood clinics do provide other services, but at the end of the day Planned Parenthood’s core business is abortion. In fact, since Roe v. Wade was decided in 1973 they have killed far more babies than anyone else in the United States by a very wide margin.


And for decades, the U.S. government has been the number one source of funding for Planned Parenthood. In fact, there are questions as to whether or not Planned Parenthood would be able to continue as a viable business without money from the federal government.

Over the years, when members of Congress have voted to shower Planned Parenthood with hundreds of millions of dollars a year, they have not done it in the heat of the moment. Rather, their votes have been the result of cold, calculated decision-making processes.

In other words, the members of Congress that have been voting to keep funding Planned Parenthood year after year have the blood of millions of dead children on their hands, and there is very little difference between them and Facebook killer Steve Stephens.

When Stephens broadcast the cold-hearted murder of a 74-year-old man on Facebook on Sunday, he instantly became a worldwide celebrity. And even though most people in the country have now seen his face, he continues to somehow elude authorities.


What Stephens has done is absolutely horrific, and when he is finally caught he will pay greatly for his crimes.

Just like Stephens, America is on the run today. We keep thinking that we will never have to pay a price for the tens of millions of children that we have killed, and our government continues to fund the slaughtering of the innocents that goes on every single day in this nation.

But now Congress is going to be given one more chance to make the right decision.


The Republicans have control of the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives. They have the power to defund Planned Parenthood, but it is going to take a tremendous amount of resolve.


That is because under the current rules it is going to take 60 votes to get a spending agreement through the Senate, and so the Republicans will need at least 8 Democratic votes to get any bill to Trump’s desk.


Sadly, the Democrats are pledging to stretch out a government shutdown indefinitely if Republicans try to defund Planned Parenthood.

So what will the Republicans do? Well, they could change the rules in the Senate to require only a simple majority vote on spending bills, and that would essentially be the “thermonuclear option”.


Or they could give in, but if they do that it would likely mean that Planned Parenthood will never be defunded, because the Republicans will never have a better opportunity than they do right now.


And I have a feeling that is what is going to happen. I have a feeling that the Republicans are going to give in at some point and agree to keep giving Planned Parenthood half a billion dollars a year.


If that is indeed what happens, both the Democrats and the Republicans that help pass such a bill will be cold-blooded killers just like Facebook killer Steve Stephens, only those Democrats and those Republicans will have far more blood on their hands than Stephens does.

Most people do not realize this, but without a doubt this is one of the most critical moments in modern American history. And if the funding of Planned Parenthood continues, I have a feeling that is going to mean that our national day of reckoning is much closer than most people would dare to imagine.

If we do not stop what we are doing, someday our crimes will catch up to us, and the debt that we will owe at that point will be far beyond what we can bear to pay.

Comments from Benjaminis: The reason that I linked this article is to show REALITY concerning the DEBT CEILING DEADLINE IS DIVISIVE and most likely IMPOSSIBLE to resolve by April 29, 2017. That being the case it will be possibly the BLACK SWAN EVENT to finally BREAK The "TRUMP BUBBLE"
You MUST be aware to be able to understand the issues ahead of you when you are trading Forex. The rest of April will be extremely unpredictable and starting to use our NEW CODE RED MONITOR, I will set the number later today after discussing it with KeepCalmfx.

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.

Without your WORK then you are just wasting your time and probably your money.

There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge ALL FOR FREE until May 15, 2017 and then if you have subscribed to this thread before May 15, 2017, then you will get a FREE LIFETIME PASS to our company website.

SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.

20% of the SUCCESS is yourself the Forex Trader.

20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE which we teach you and that is Money Flow Trading.

20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard earned money) Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear and greed. Of course we want to make sure that you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader so our course is for a period of three months, so we can teach you the right trading methods and we can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.

20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators which include not only the common ones. It includes the understanding of Supply and Demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points which you can see each day on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans which we also help you develop and explain WHY. These are our Winning Trade Plans that we review every three months or earlier if circumstances in the markets require that.

20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than Data Releases each day around the world. It includes reports and articles extremely well researched as you can clearly see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets especially in North America is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you then have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and you are not surprised when events eventually unfold.

In order to be able to help you better it is VERY IMPORTANT that you share your thoughts and your QUESTIONS here on our thread.


Benjaminis

Good Morning power

I appreciate your thoughts on the technical indicators and as you know by reading and spending time on our thread there are many factors about technical trading by itself which in my opinion is one of the factors that will lead to confusion and uncertainty in your Forex trading.

There is an incredible trading and teaching industry for the Retail Forex Trade that KEY on the charts.

Of course there is opportunity to make money however most of the money in the Retail Forex Industry is made by the people that offer excellent courses and excellent value along with tremendous knowledge of many parts of the Forex industry however we today live in the world of Brexit and Trump and Europe and Central Banks and we are on the EDGE of Financial Collapse around the world as anyone even reading a few pages of our thread will understand and of course without the reading it happens every day in front of our eyes if we do not live in a cave which in many ways the MASSES do by being distracted by REALITY TV and FALSE NARRATIVES all the while that Rome is AGAIN BURNING.

So since things can and do change as we saw today all the Charts do is as I have said many times take an X RAY and then after MONEY FLOWS there is the need for many New X RAYS and of course NEW Pivot Points and new areas of Support and Resistance. As for SUPPLY and DEMAND when most of the Trillions that FLOW around the World by Countries and CENTRAL BANKS we are only small participants in the BI POLAR WORLD and GAME that we are in except it is much more than a GAME. It is REALITY and all of our FUTURES !!!

This time the EMPIRE BURNING in the FRONT of our EYES is the USA and because of GLOBALIZATION ir will greatly affect every one of us.

I would appreciate your thoughts on this and also if you are able to use your technical skills perhaps you can post some of your charts. I am looking forward to your thoughts.


Benjaminis

Morning Thoughts - Daily

When I first woke up and went to my computer I saw a DRAW UP of over $3000 US Dollars and my Equity Balance was close to $75,000 US Dollars and then in front of my eyes as some of the earnings from the banks came out this morning and the initial reaction to the MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT from Britain was factored in the panic left the markets however the ONE THING that MARKETS ABHOR is UNCERTAINTY.

SO... it took DISCIPLINE on my part to just leave ALL my 8 Open Positions on and let the Markets and my Risk Management Strategy decide for me.

Of course having a Brain and Common Sense at anytime I can make a decision to close all my Forex Positions if need arises and I just want to stand back and let the DUST SETTLE. Call it CODE RED OF TEN.

At the moment we definitely have RISK OFF SO... we know what we need to do. When my friend and associate KeepCalmfx does my SCREENSHOT you will see where my Forex Account Stands.

Look for yourself what the US 30 did from the 5 minute chart from Finviz.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5

How can any chart in the world tell you what to do or probably even tell you what is happening to cause the VIOLENT MOVEMENTS and furthermore the change of directions then the return to the original direction on the announcement of the first reactions when the NORMAL LIE was told , "NO WE ARE NOT CALLING AN EARLY ELECTION"


Benjaminis

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Theresa May Calls For Snap UK General Election On June 8
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Apr 18, 2017 5:58 AM


In a stunning development, Theresa May announced she would seek an early general election for Britain on June 8 to obtain a direct mandate to take the country through the Brexit divorce with the EU. The decision, which comes just three weeks after the prime minister began the formal Brexit process, has shocked British politicians as they returned from their Easter break.


That said, the announcement has come as two polls over the weekend put the Conservatives 21 points ahead of Labour, a lead that is likely to greatly increase its existing working Commons majority of 17, which hardly means a major shock for the general direction the UK is heading

1. MAY SAYS SHE PLANS TO SEEK EARLY U.K. ELECTION ON JUNE 8
2. BRITISH PRIME MINISTER MAY SAYS NEEDS UNITY IN WESTMINSTER, BUT INSTEAD THERE IS DIVISION
3. GBP/USD REVERSES LOSS AFTER MAY SAYS PLANS ELECTION FOR JUNE 8
4. MAY SAYS OTHER PARTIES OPPOSE GOVTS BREXIT APPROACH

May had previously said categorically that the next general election would be held as scheduled in 2020, and many Conservative backbenchers had shown little enthusiasm for a vote. It isnt going to happen. There is not going to be a general election, her spokesman said on March 20.


As the FT notes, the prime minister is understood to have changed her mind after taking advice from senior figures including Sir Lynton Crosby, mastermind of the 2015 election campaign. Two polls over the Easter weekend put the Conservatives 21 points ahead of Labour, a lead that is likely to greatly increase its existing working Commons majority of 17.


Holding an election gives Mrs May an opportunity to win a direct mandate for the first time to be prime minister. She took power last July without a public vote, after David Cameron resigned and her remaining rival in the Conservative leadership contest, Andrea Leadsom, pulled out of the race. If Mrs May had remained in power without a vote until 2020, it would have been the longest a prime minister had served without an election since Winston Churchill during the second world war.

The Tories existing majority would have made it harder for the government to push through its Repeal Bill, which transfers EU legislation into the statute book, without significant amendments. William Hague, the former Conservative leader, was among those to have called for an early poll in an attempt to win a larger majority.


A general election will allow Mrs May may to ditch the 2015 Tory manifesto, and campaign on her own policies including the opening of new grammar schools, which have been opposed by Tory moderates. Key policies from the Cameron era, including a commitment to spend 0.7 per cent of gross national product on international development, might also be changed.

Comments from Benjaminis: Here is the article. The above information came from a earlier article from Zerohedge at 5:58 AM today.

What Does Theresa May's Stunning Announcement Mean: Bill Blain Explains
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Apr 18, 2017 6:58 AM



Authored by Bill Blain via MINT Partners,
There will be load of unhappy Labour politicians this afternoon... even though many of them hold “safe seats”, I suspect many will be updating their CVs and looking for new jobs.


May’s intent is to clear the decks of dissent. SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon was the only person name checked in May’s announcement rant. That is a clear message to the Scottish Nationalists: the Conservatives intend to win this election nationally, and I should imagine we’ll see a massive effort to back up the resurgent Scottish Conservatives over the next 6 weeks. Scottish Conservatives will focus on the SNPs domestic track record running the country rather than pushing for independence – its not a good one.


There are risks:
May does risk losing her overall majority – its only 16 - especially if voters responds favourably to the Liberals who will try to turn it into a vote on Brexit.


However, this is a national election where its the country that matters – the Conservatives have lost by-elections on Brexit protest last year, but I suspect we are beyond that in the coming national plebiscite. Wont stop the Liberals telling people how wrong they were last year.


The SNP will try to make it a Brexit/Independence vote, but the Tories only hold one seat in Scotland so the SNP have little to gain and everything to lose. I’ll be looking at Scottish seats in detail.


Labour are the party in trouble. Although many of their seats are supposedly safe, electoral dissatisfaction with Corbyn and their pro-Brexit demograph means they’ll have to play a real election with muddled policies, a disorganised party under a hapless leader… which must have been irresistible to May. Shame.


The election notice and vote in Westminster should pass tomorrow. If she can’t get the 2/3rd majority to overturn the 2011 fixed-term government act, a simple no-confidence vote will suffice to trigger the election.


What does it mean for markets?
Sterling Spiked Higher.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0417_gbp_0.jpg
GBPUSD is at its highest since early Feb on the news - breaking aboive its 200-day moving average for the first time since Brexit.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...417_gbp2_0.jpg
Gilts went down (up in yield). FTSE done little.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...417_gbp1_0.jpg
Generally this should be seen as dampening Scottish Uncertainty, giving the Tories a clearer mandate on Brexit by default, and positive for the economy.


But let’s look at the electoral constituencies in detail to work out the likely trends. Might the Tories lose their majority to a resurgent Liberal crew (doubt it).

Might Labour get wiped.. (perhaps).



Fascinating…


And don’t believe the polls…

Comments from Benjaminis: This is why if you really want to be a Professional Currency Trader which is short and sweet a business to make money and if you have the desire and the interest and the time and the skills then consider doing it if you find that you have the qualifications to do it and NEVER FORGET that only 5% can do it on average. I have done it after investing 14 years of my time and gained the KNOWLEDGE and EXPERIENCE to achieve the results that I show here that I can do.

Hi Benjamin & Everyone else.

Here is the updated screenshot and charts

1. Post 2,978
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Apr 16, 11:36am (44 hr ago)

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 2,359 Posts | Online Now

Quoting KeepCalmfx
{quote} Hi Benjamin & Everyone else. I posted some charts to view the correlation. I agree there is not much of a correlation between USD index and USDJPY if you look at the charts. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
Dear KeepCalmfx

Thank you very much for doing the work to confirm what I pointed out. What I find so fascinating on a very personal level for myself since I have invested 14 years of my life to develop my skills at this high level of proven success and as I have been planning and working on the corporate website with JL as you know and we had an important meeting on this on Friday at my office.

I started to realize that very few professional Forex traders and professional Forex teachers alike appear from what I have seen to be using directly our Money Flow Trading Method with CORRELATION along with our very sophisticated Risk Management strategy so we do not need to earn profits by scalping and our wins are much larger as you showed when you did the average amount of my winning Forex trades and my losing ones. Then the KEY to results over 5% Return on Investment Monthly is the winning percentage of all Forex trades.

Since the percentage of winning trades is well over 60% of all Forex trades than it becomes evident when recent profits that I generated of over $24,000 US Dollars within 60 days can occur when you are qualified and understand how to trade Forex for maximum reward and minimum risk.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Dollar Sinks As Goldman Covers 'Top Trade' Recommendations; Blames Fed, Trump
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Apr 18, 2017 9:11 AM


Just a few short weeks after Goldman's top FX strategist (whose favorite trade was 'long dollar') quit, the banking behemoth has reversed its call on two so-called "top trades"...


Before Goldman's chief FX strategist Robin Brooks quit (the replacement to the infamous Thomas Stolper), he suggested...
...coming Dollar appreciation will arguably take the Dollar into overvalued territory, but given the outperformance of the US vis--vis others, US policy makers will have to accept this as part of a necessary tightening in financial conditions.


And now, just a few short weeks later, Goldman says they are closing their two long-Dollar ‘Top Trade’ recommendations: long USD versus EUR and GBP, and long USD/CNY via the 12-month NDF.


We see three main reasons why these trades have not performed since initiation in mid-November, and no longer warrant a place among our ‘Top Trades’:
(1) The pickup in global growth, which has reduced the degree of US outperformance.

(2) Concerns about Dollar appreciation from the Trump Administration.

(3) The Fed’s turn towards balance sheet normalization, which has resulted in less hawkish communication about the funds rate than we might have expected.
In addition to closing these two recommendations, we are putting the remainder of our foreign exchange forecasts under review.

We do not anticipate making major changes to the rank ordering of return expectations, but we may adjust a number of spot rate forecasts to reflect a flatter trajectory for the trade-weighted Dollar.


In recent years we have generally maintained a bullish Dollar view, and the greenback still has a number of things going for it, including a healthy domestic economy, an active central bank, and lower political uncertainty compared with the UK and Euro area. In the near term the Dollar could gain if the Trump Administration makes progress on fiscal stimulus or if the Front National wins the upcoming presidential election in France.

However, a number of fundamentals have changed on the margin, such that the long-Dollar story no longer warrants a place among our ‘Top Trades’. In addition to closing these two recommendations, we are putting the remainder of our foreign exchange forecasts under review. We do not anticipate making major changes to the rank ordering of our return expectations, but we may adjust a number of spot rate forecasts to reflect a flatter trajectory for the trade-weighted Dollar. Our current forecasts imply an appreciation in the Dollar NEER (nominal effective exchange rate) of 6.5-7.0% over the next 12 months, which we now see as too high.

And the dollar is reacting (help by strength in cable after Theresa May's moves)
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau..._dollar1_0.jpg


Comments from Benjaminis: Have a look at the 5 minute chart from Finviz on US Dollar Index

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m5

You can see how quickly things can change.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Factory Output Tumbles In March - This Has Never Happened Outside Of Recession
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Apr 18, 2017 9:22 AM


US Industrial Production peaked in November 2014 and remains down almost 2% from those record highs (despite surging stocks).
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0418_IP1_0.jpg

This has never happened without the US economy being in recession in history.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0418_IP2_0.jpg

While Industrial production headlines met expectations, factory output for March plunged 0.4% - the biggest drop since Feb 2015.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0418_IP3_0.jpg

Still who needs 'production' when we have Snapchat and Netflix!?

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: We see from this article the REAL DIFFERENCE between PERCEPTION (NOT BASED ON REAL FACTS MOST OF THE TIME) and REALITY (HARD COLD FACTS BACKED BY REAL KNOWLEDGE WITH CHARTS TO CONFIRM)

SO... We who KNOW can see INTO THE FUTURE because we KNOW that the TREND MUST BE DOWN in the US Equity Markets and more importantly why.

I look forward to your thoughts.

At KeepCalmfx... I closed 4 of my positions with a Net Profit of $1590.89 US Dollars and you can now SEE with everyone else that comes to our thread that you can NEVER LOSE your profits by taking reasonable profits and not being too greedy and rarely do markets go straight up or down. When you can please update my SCREENSHOT.

I just might put on NEW Positions as what I have accomplished is to lock in profits and lower my risk and of course we see reduced MONEY FLOW after NOON today when Europe finishes their trading day in the Equity Markets however not in the Forex market.

In the last few days I have noticed reversals in the North America Equity Markets between NOON and 12:30 PM Eastern Standard Time so I will watch and maybe close some of my remaining 4 open positions. This probably happens because of profit taking in the Forex market before they finish their trading for the day or if they are short then it can have the opposite effect SO... being AWARE of this gives YOU an EDGE.

These EDGES only can come from KNOWLEDGE and EXPERIENCE.

However when it is pointed out for you then you save years of learning and get to understand by the sharing of the experience by myself.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Deutsche Bank: "Early UK Elections Are A Gamechanger; We Are Closing Our Bearish GBP Trades"
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Apr 18, 2017 8:54 AM



This morning's shocking announcement caught virtually everybody by surprise, and is prompting one bank after another to thoroughly revise their cable forecasts, case in point Deutsche Bank, whose strategist George Saravelos just announced he is changing his view on sterling because the "early elections are a game-changer", something which the market clearly anticipated judging by the surge in cable...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...8_GBPUSD_0.jpg
... a surge which will prompt the near record number of GBP shorts to cover en masse.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau..._GBPUSD1_0.jpg
To be sure, May's announcement does make sense in retrospect: as Unicredit’s Vasileios Gkionakis notes, May’s logic is sound: “It’s good to have the elections now that you have good U.K. numbers, which are mostly dependent on global growth, because when you start seeing the U.K. idiosyncratic factors filtering through, potentially her popularity is going to throb a bit”


As for Saravelos, his full note below:
Changing view on sterling: early elections a game-changer

This morning's announcement from PM May of a snap general election on the 8th June is in our view a game-changer for both the UK's Brexit negotiations and sterling.

We argued last year that an early general election was the only way to resolve the political impasse the U.K. government faces in conducting Brexit negotiations. The 2020 General Election imposed a hard deadline on delivering Brexit on an unrealistic timeline as well as making the Prime Minister reliant on a small Euro-sceptic majority.

Both of these factors would have required political and market pressure to impose the appropriate political shifts that would have allowed a realistic deal to emerge.

In contrast, today's general election announcement changes the outlook. We do not see the election as a mandate for hard Brexit. Instead, assuming current polling proves correct, it should result in a larger Conservative majority. This will have three material implications, in our opinion.

 

1. First, it makes the deadline to deliver a "clean" Brexit without a lengthy transitional arrangement by 2019 far less pressing given that no general election will be due the year after.
2. Second, it will dilute the influence of MPs pushing for hard Brexit, strengthening the government's domestic political position and allowing earlier compromise over key EU demands for a transitional arrangement.
3. Third, it strengthens the PM's overall negotiating stance who in recent weeks has clearly fallen in line with the European negotiating approach.

This will involve a settlement of the Brexit payments and other divorce aspects first, to be followed by a lengthy transitional period during which the final outcome of Brexit will emerge. This sequenced approach materially reduces the "crash risk" of Brexit negotiations as well as strengthening the Prime Minister's hand in pursuing an orderly (and very lengthy) withdrawal.

All of the above in turn reduce downside risks for the U.K. growth outlook over Brexit negotiations.

We have been structurally bearish on sterling for the last two years but are now changing view. We are closing out all our bearish FX trades. We intend to review our sterling forecasts in coming days.


That said, some disagree. As Bloombergs Richard Jones writes after the announcement, the early election is not likely to shift the dial "much" for investors. Key highlights from his take:
It’s hard to see how an early U.K. election will be a game changer for markets.

The process to leave the European Union has already been initiated with the triggering of Article 50. And polls show the Conservatives will win hands down and return to the government with an increased majority. Domestic politics hasn’t been a great source of uncertainty. It is rather the economic implications of Brexit and the attendant lack of clarity that has ratcheted up consumer, business and investor anxiety.

The clock is ticking, the political dynamics aren’t likely to shift, so investors have no reason to radically alter their views on the implications of Brexit with Tuesday’s announcement.



The longer-term implications of Brexit are perhaps best summarized in a recent paper from the San Francisco Fed, a prognosis not dissimilar to the views expressed by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney.

The lack of access to the EU single market will likely damp potential U.K. growth for years, with Britain both less specialized and less efficient post-Brexit, the San Francisco Fed argued.

If today’s price action is any indication, market moves will probably be noisy during the election campaign. But unless there is any unexpected shift in domestic political dynamics, the issues currently in place will remain after June 8.

For now, however, it's the short covering panic that is driving price at least for the immediate future.

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: The KEY COMMENT is the SHORT COVERING PANIC. Have a LOOK at all the charts on USD/GBP and look at Pivot Points and Support and Resistance and Supply and Demand. It is all out the window and now everything needs to BE REVIEWED.

What are your thoughts on this topic ?

Updated screenshots

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...y/#more-148401



Guest Post by Martin Armstrong
https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....aple-Shade.jpgReal estate depends on how far down the rabbit hole we go. If government does not blink and it just keeps raising taxes trying to support a system that is unsustainable, then we end up in the full crash and burn and you are compelled to walk away from real estate. Hopefully, with education understanding the past, we can for once avoid the same outcome and advance in this learning curve of civilization.


Vacation properties are the worst to survive. I bought such a place to live in at about 50% of its 2007 high. So while high-end properties in cities were rising, vacation spots on the beach declined. I wanted beach front. So understanding the cycle helps tremendously for entry and exit points.


The risk of mortgages declining is real. As governments get in trouble, long-term confidence starts to decline. Banks will not longer be able to package mortgages. As that unfolds, the lack of the availability of mortgages means the only cash rules.


https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws..../Barlow-Ad.jpgThe town I grew up in, Maple Shade, New Jersey, was once the sprawling real estate speculator’s paradise. Thomas Barlow, Sr. and his son, Thomas, Jr. formed the Maple Heights Land Co. together with several other businessmen in 1908. The company purchased from John R. and Margaret W. Mason their farm which was part of the original Roberts plantation surveyed in 1682. In 1910, they formed Barlow Company and began selling 1 acre lots. The buyers were the city folks in Philadelphia for the train came right into Maple Shade and that made the area worth speculating in.
https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....low-Thomas.jpg
The Barlows then developed small bungalows meant to be vacation homes for people in the big city, which were called Barlow Built Bungalows (BBB). Thomas J.S. Barlow Jr., made a lot of money during the land boom into 1927. He made a lot of money also in the stock market. He built the Barlow Mansion in Maple Shade in 1916 as a wedding present to his wife. The property was then expanded containing the second 3 porch archs which were added in 1926 just before the 1927 real estate bubble burst in Florida and became a contagion in real estate around the country.

Thomas Barlow lost the house in the early 1930s after the Stock Market Crash of 1929. In March 1933, Chester Township (Maple Shade) was declared bankrupt. The Maple Shade National Bank closed was one of the banks that never opened after FDR’s bank holiday. In 1936, Maple Shade had the Highest tax rate in Burlington County because it had gone bankrupt and could not pay its bills lacking any credit facilities. It was during the 1930s that the Barlows opened up their basement for the children in town. It was one of those gatherings that my parents met.
https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....aple-Shade.jpg
https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....LPH-Shrine.jpgAfter the bank went bust and the Barlow Mansion was lost, one of my father’s friends family had bought up most of main street for cash at 10 cents on the dollar. As state revenues declined during the Great Depression, New Jersey introduced its State Sales Tax fixed at 2% in 1935, except milk and purchases under 13 cents. The Catholic Church in Maple Shade built a shrine in 1937 to thank for a recovery. OLPH Shrine details was the showplace of the locality and stood some 40 feet in width, 36 feet high and 18 feet in depth. It was formally dedicated on Sunday August 15th, 1937.
This story can be repeated countless times for small towns that were being developed during the 1920s land boom how vacation speculationbankrupted many. Even Sarasota, Florida was developed by John Ringling in the mid-1920s. John was once one of the world’s wealthiest men in the United States, yet he died with only $311 in the bank.


https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....ing-Market.jpgI warned that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau puts regulations on people buying real estate with a mortgage that has been highly burdensome to normal people. When friend bought a house with his girlfriend, they had to explain absolutely every check where she had written to him each month paying her half of the rent. They made them account not just once, but for every check going back 5 years.


As late as the 1920’s, someone taking out a mortgage to buy a house in the U.S. would most likely get a short-term balloon mortgage with terms of 50%, and five years to pay off the other 50%. At the end of the five years, it was common to re-finance into another five-year loan. However, when the Great Depression, the value of cash rose and banks didn’t want to refinance these balloon mortgages. Banks began to foreclose. Between 1931 and 1935, a quarter million people lost their homes each year.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongec...nd-auction.jpgBankruptcy auctions were common and prices fell to 10% for only people with cash could buy. Farm land fell to below what it sold for in the 1850s. Here is a photo of a 1933 Virginia Land Foreclosure Auction.


The whole reason Franklin D. Roosevelt created the 30 year mortgage was to try to get people to buy on credit. Property was being auctioned off in the 1930s and it was for cash only. Prices for farmland fell to pennies on the dollar for only cash buyers could bid. Roosevelt stepped in, explaining why the government shouldn’t just sit by: “Even before I was inaugurated, I came to the conclusion that such a policy was too much to ask the American people to bear. It involved not only a further loss of homes, farms, savings and wages, but also a loss of spiritual values — the loss of that sense of security for the present and the future so necessary to the peace and contentment of the individual and of his family.”


Roosevelt created federal agencies that form the basis of the housing market the United States to this day. They provided mortgage insurance, established a secondary market for mortgage loans, and converted 1 million loans into long-term mortgages. There were truly transformational in nature. It did make housing affordable and it made housing, homeownership, sustainable. However, it effectively leveraged the entire real estate market. It was truly that then more people could afford to buy, but as demand rose, so did property values.


The crisis we face is what happens this time when the banks cannot lend money, interest rates rise, and mortgages for 30 year periods vanish? Like any market, prices will crash. The maximum length of a mortgage was extended to 30 years in the 1940’s, making home ownership even more affordable and leveraged the entire housing market. Today, Roosevelt’s economic fix became the norm. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage accounted for nearly 90% of all new mortgages.


If the government can no longer subsidize the real estate market, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will become too expensive, become far too risky for a lender even if the person does not default by the rise in the cost of money, and it will simply disappear. The long-term mortgage is a bet a lot of lenders don’t want to take on their own.


This is the risk to the housing market. If you have the bulk of your assets in real estate, then one way to keep them is to run out and get a 30-year FIXED mortgage now while you can. You have sold the risk to a third party and it is now their problem. You the cash wisely for investment into other movable areas.

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: Do you see that HISTORY is just repeating itself in the Housing Market ? Do you see where we are headed ? It is so clear when you understand all the pieces of the complex puzzle. The main take away that I got from the real life experience of Martin A. Armstrong is this sentence.

"Even Sarasota, Florida was developed by John Ringling in the mid-1920s. John was once one of the world’s wealthiest men in the United States, yet he died with only $311 in the bank."

We are going to see the same thing happen to many of the 1% however not all of them. History repeats itself yet most never seem to learn the lessons of the past.

The Equity Markets in Europe are now closed.

Dear KeepCalmfx

Could you please do a SCREENSHOT for me. For some reason I cannot close my last three positions. You could try to close it for me however please do a SCREENSHOT. I show Equity now of $76,824.08 US Dollars.

Thank You...


Benjaminis

Very Strange !!! My Profit for the day shows as $5377.39 US Dollars and I have 3 open positions of only SPX500 and the Equity now shows as $77,088.00 US Dollars and I cannot close my positions.

I am waiting for news from KeepCalmfx while I eat my lunch. (SMILE)


Benjaminis

Hi Benjamin

See updated screenshots.

I tried to close it myself, but can't. See message.

I also tried to log out and in again, also don't work. glitch from there side?

Thanks for your quick work KeepCalmfx

I got the same results. Most likely glitch on their side that will be corrected. I actually had LIMIT OUT that would have closed my 3 remaining positions.

The main thing are the results. It has gone great and most of my input has been right on, so the main thing is to keep learning.

When you can gather your thoughts I would appreciate your review of the results and what we have learned in the last 24 hours. I sent you an email this morning and I am having a meeting on Thursday with another experienced Forex trader and one of my associates working with me on the corporate website.

Look at where USD/JPY is at now and all in all it has been a very hectic yet productive 24 hours trading and teaching Forex with your appreciated input and assistance.


Benjaminis

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.co...ything-bubble/

The Anything President And The Everything Bubble


By David Stockman. Posted On Tuesday, April 18th, 2017


The lemmings were running hard upon the cliffs yesterday. Never mind a renewed burst of bombs and drones careening into the already rubble-strewn precincts of the middle east in Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria and Iraq; or the outbreak of cold war style nuclear brinksmanship on the Korean peninsula---what one commentator properly called a Cuban missile crisis in slow motion.


Likewise, forget that the vacationing Congress is set to return on April 25 to an endless sequence of shoutdowns, showdowns and shutdowns on continuing resolutions and debt ceiling increases. That is, it will be struggling erratically to keep the fiscal lights on in the Imperial City, not enacting the Donald's DBA (dead before arrival) fantasy about making the American economy great again.


Indeed, while the Donald has been out huffing and puffing in his new role as global Spanker-in-Chief, the domestic front has turned from bad to worse. To wit, his economic policy machinery has now been seized entirely by the Vampire Squid's latest plenipotentiaries in the White House----Gary Cohn, Steve Mnuchin and Jared Kushner.


We are quite confident that none of these three has ever voted Republican in their life or have even the foggiest idea of how to craft a fiscal plan and tax program that could coalesce the warring GOP factions from the Freedom Caucus to the Tuesday Group. And if the Goldman trio should even attempt to go the old Boehner-Obama "bipartisan" route, as Wall Street devoutly wishes, Speaker Ryan will come to understand the concept of being drawn-and-quartered in a very existential way.


In a word, it should be crystal clear by now that there will be no great Trump Stimulus. Instead, what lies ahead is an unprecedented outbreak of dysfunction, paralysis and unmitigated mayhem in the Imperial City

Moreover, the fact that the Donald is now flipping, flopping, pivoting and whirling on issues in an almost random manner is surely compounding the dysfunction.

While the clucking commentariat at CNN may find the Donald's betrayal of core campaign positions and constituencies to be evidence of a "refreshing" flexibility---or even as "presidential" behavior according to the insufferable Fareed Zakaria----it is actually just the opposite.


It's proof that the Donald didn't mean a thing he said during the campaign; and that for GOP politicians on Capitol Hill, lining-up behind a whirling dervish of impetuous unpredictability is fast becoming a career hazard with vanishing appeal.


After all, the Donald has now flip-flopped not on campaign brochure footnotes, but on five core issues. The matters of China's blatant currency manipulation over two decades, the Fed's egregious bubble finance that left Flyover America behind, the Ex-Im bank's crony capitalist subsidies to Boeing and GE, NATO's obsolescence and intervention on both sides of the Syrian civil war were all front and center to the Donald's appeal.


Yet the fact that he jettisoned his clear positions on these issues in less than a week indicates that he is truly flying by the seat of his ample britches, and that his attention span does indeed compress into 140 characters or less.


When the bell rang yesterday afternoon, of course, the S&P 500 index was still up by an unaccountable 12% from November 8. So we will say it again with renewed emphasis: This century's third great bubble's days are numbered and they can be counted in not very many digits.


It is only a matter of time until the residual bullishness and buy-the-dips robo-trading that temporarily sustained the dotcom bubble through March 2000 and the housing/credit bubble through September 2008 finally gives way.


That's especially true because the Fed is out of dry powder after having impaled itself on the zero bound for 100 months running. Indeed, by noisily declaring "mission accomplished" on the Full Employment front, the Keynesian money printers who run it are barely hiding their underlying panic.


That is, they are now marching briskly against the tide----raising interest rates and preparing to shrink its bloated balance sheet---in order to prepare for the next recession that they know full well is just around the corner. It's as if winter is coming, and the squirrels are hauling in the nuts in full scamper mode.

So given this fiscal and monetary backdrop and a global economy that is freighted down under $225 trillion of debt and massive excess capacity, only one conclusion is possible: The stock market is surely in the midst of the "Everything Bubble".


In fact, the median stock is now trading at the highest multiple of earnings in history----including 2000 and 1929.
https://i0.wp.com/investmentresearch...size=604%2C180

Needless to say, yesterday's dip buyers had an alternative story. The sell side narrative from Wall Street is that the US and global economies have just suddenly accelerated all on their own, and that a robust profits rebound will follow hard upon.


We have heard that every spring for years now----with the eventual disappointment getting chalked off to one-time factors---including the fact that the weather still fluctuates, even if the stock market does not. At length, the year drifts to a disappointing close, and then it's onward to next year's hockey stick. Rinse and repeat.


Then again, even hopium eventually looses its charm. With today's 0.4% decline in March industrial production, the index has now been down for 28 months running. That has never happened before in the absence of a recession, while the kind of divergence between main street and wall street shown in the chart has always been a prelude to a stock market crash.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0418_IP1_0.jpg


Yes, Facebook and its social media fellow travelers are still swiping ad dollars from newspapers, TV and billboards. There's that, and more people than ever watching archival movies (i.e. already produced) on Netflix.

Last time we checked, however, that stuff mostly added up to the re-allocation and re-use of existing resources and, if anything, unproductivity, not growth.

As for the advertising spend per se, it has actually fallen from about 1.25% of GDP on a historic basis to just under 0.95% of GDP at present. Not even 231 million monthly average FB users in the US can seem to move the total ad needle off "boring".
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/...4/v1/-1x-1.jpg

So no matter how you slice it, the US economy is sliding toward the flat line or below. The nosedive of Q1 GDP might even count for something this time. It's been distorted by the "weather" again----but this time with a positive sign. That is, the least wintery winter in years appears to be generating a mere 0.4% blip in economic growth.
http://gainspainscapital.com/wp-cont...4/GPC41717.gif


Some economists call that "stall speed" and after 94 months of the most tepid recovery in modern history there is no other way to describe it.

In fact, we'd guess that after the Q1 numbers are posted that real GDP will have grown at a 1.25% annualized rate since the prior peak in Q4 2007----or by hardly one-third of the historic trend rate of 3.4%.


To be sure, we generally think short-term GDP and other outpourings from the Washington statistical mills are a second cousin of random noise, but this time there is a plethora of "incoming data" from the commercial sphere that can't be gainsaid.


Front and center, of course, is our "old reliable". That is, the receipts coming into Uncle Sam's farebox at the IRS. None of America's 20 million odd business tax filers are sending in withholding taxes for phantom seasonally maladjusted payroll slots, nor do the tend to stump up estimated payments for profits they do not expect.


So when the 12-month moving average of Federal receipts dropped into negative territory for the fourth month running in March, it was another big waning flag. Historically, this has not happened outside of recession.

https://mises.org/sites/default/file...?itok=P9-pnD-f

Even the cheapest financing in modern history, it appears, can't keep the vastly overbuilt commercial real estate sector humming indefinitely, either. After a huge, easy money rebound from the 2008-2009 crash, both commercial loan advances and property sales volumes are now clearly rolling over.
https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/...0411161206.jpg


Needless to say, at the heart of the breakdown in the $3 trillion commercial loan market is the ongoing retail armeggedon. It shows no signs of abating and the recent chapter 11 filing by Payless means that upwards of 3,500 stores will close in early 2017 alone.


Even the BLS fudge factory seems to be getting the word about the scorched earth condition of the malls. During the last two months, it has reported a 60,000 decline in the seasonally maladjusted job count; and a 758,000 drop in the actual count since the December holiday peak. By the way, that compares to only a 644,000 drop over December-March during the prior year.
http://static2.businessinsider.com/i...b008b5d56-1200


The fact is, other than easy credit fueled auto sales, which are now also rolling over, and purchases through Jeff Bezos' cut rate e-Commerce juggernaut, the American consumer has been quasi-comatose for nearly three years now.

Reported sales at general merchandise stores in February were no higher than they were 30 months ago in August 2014---and we do mean "nominal" sales. Since the CPI is up 2.8% during the last year alone, inflation adjusted sales are actually already well into recession territory.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=dljj

More importantly, the plunge in department store sales----which comprise the anchor and driver of 70% of mall traffic--- have not abated in the slightest. As of the most recent reading, the monthly sales rate was down 30% from the pre-crisis peak.

Again, that's in nominal dollars. In real terms, department store sales have fall by upwards of 50% since the early years of this century.

Accordingly, we do not believe that even SPG's Class A and upscale malls will be immune much longer. In fact, when the stock market finally breaks, it will add insult to injury because SPG's customer base is far more sensitive to the stock market than any other retail sector.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=dlZR


Moreover, what is happening is not merely cyclical in the traditional sense. Debt-encumbered American consumers are terminal. They are dropping, not shopping, because this entire so-called recovery has been wasted. That is, consumers can't spend energetically because there has been no significant deleveraging since the 2008 crisis.


That means, in turn, that the Keynesian predicate of Washington's economic policy has again been refuted, and that Say's law is back in the saddle. In fact, notwithstanding a 5X gain in the Fed's balance sheet----from $900 billion on the eve of the Lehman meltdown to $4.5 trillion today---our Keynesian central bankers simply could not cause consumers to borrow and spend their way to prosperity. They are impaled on Peak Debt.

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.co...19-480x283.jpg

In a word, the retail mall sector is facing insuperable headwinds and the worst of both worlds. That is, flagging demand and immense over-capacity.

It now appears, in fact, that nearly 150 million of retail square footage could close during 2017-----an all-time record. And this is not happening in a vacuum that is segregated from the regional malls.

Everywhere retailers are slashing prices, upping merchandising and promotion expenses and plowing money into renovation, upgrades and conversions to service and entertainment venues---- owing to the massive collision of Amazon/e-commerce with the nation's hopelessly overbuilt bricks and mortar retail infrastructure.

https://ci4.googleusercontent.com/pr...mall&width=832
There is far more evidence of a flagging economy where this came from, but no matter. The boys and girls and robo-traders on Wall Street have developed an insatiable appetite for sell-side hockey sticks based on utterly distorted and massaged ex-items "earnings".


We stopped bothering to even track that malarkey long ago, but relative to the renewed claim that profits in Q1 will be up by double digits, we would offer this.
For the LTM period ending in September 2013, reported S&P 500 profits posted at $94.37 per share, while during the now completed accounted for LTM period ending in December 2016 they posted at $94.55 per share.


That's right. Not even two dimes of gain during the last 40 months!

So we not only have an everything bubble and a president who can apparently believe anything on any given day; we also have a financial market that gives the notion of a casino an altogether new definition.

Indeed, we think the Donald is about to get Obama'd.

That is to say, if you like his Reflation Bubble, you most assuredly can't keep it.